Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and packaging industries, while indicating a stable recovery for the paper industry and a potential upward trend for trendy toys and light consumer goods [3][4][6]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from the easing of real estate policies, with a focus on companies with high dividend support and growth certainty for 2025 [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector shows resilience, with significant growth in e-cigarette exports to the U.S. and a favorable regulatory environment for heated tobacco products [10][11]. - The paper packaging industry is experiencing stable demand, with price increases anticipated due to seasonal demand and inventory reductions [11][12]. - The light consumer goods and trendy toys sectors are witnessing innovation and brand development, with a focus on new product cycles and market expansion [13][14]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic demand is expected to recover as financial policies are implemented, while export figures show a slight decline due to tariffs imposed by the U.S. [4][9]. - Key companies to watch include 欧派家居, 索菲亚, and 顾家家居, which are positioned for growth in the domestic market [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - E-cigarette exports from China increased by 4.25% year-on-year, with exports to the U.S. rising by 32.62% [10][16]. - Companies like 思摩尔国际 are highlighted for their strategic positioning in the market [10][11]. Paper Packaging Sector - Prices for various paper products remain stable, with a notable increase in demand leading to anticipated price hikes post-holidays [11][12]. - Recommended companies include 裕同科技 and 太阳纸业, which are expected to benefit from market conditions [11][12]. Light Consumer Goods and Trendy Toys - The sector is focusing on new product launches and expanding offline channels, with companies like 泡泡玛特 and 名创优品 leading the way [13][14]. - The AI glasses market is also emerging, with significant growth potential as new technologies are introduced [13][14]. Key Data and Trends - The report tracks various industry metrics, including furniture export data, domestic retail sales, and the performance of key sectors [16][23][34].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with expectations of strong growth in the collectible toy market, driven by its unique positioning and expanding IP portfolio [2][9]. Company Overview - TOP TOY is a subsidiary of MINISO Group, focusing on collectible toys and operates independently from MINISO, which emphasizes daily consumer goods [3]. - The company was established in 2020, with its first store opening in Guangzhou, aiming to tap into the "interest consumption" trend amid MINISO's financial struggles [3][4]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 679 million, 1.461 billion, and 1.909 billion RMB, respectively, with operating profits turning positive in 2023 and 2024 [5]. - In the first half of this year, the company reported revenue of 1.36 billion RMB and a gross profit of 441 million RMB, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [5]. Market Position and Growth - TOP TOY is recognized as the fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% in GMV from 2022 to 2024 [5]. - As of September 2025, the company plans to operate 299 stores, including 15 overseas, primarily in Southeast Asia [6]. IP Strategy - The company relies heavily on licensed IP for revenue, with licensing fees increasing from 8.718 million RMB in 2022 to 32.78 million RMB in 2024, and further rising to 19.711 million RMB in the first half of this year [7]. - TOP TOY is actively developing its own IP, with successful launches in 2023, including the "Yoyo" series, which generated over 10 million RMB in sales within a month [8]. Market Outlook - The collectible toy market in China is expected to grow from 20.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 58.7 billion RMB by 2024, with a CAGR of 23.2% [9]. - The market is anticipated to continue expanding, with significant potential for new entrants and diverse IP offerings [10].

Group 1: H&M Q3 Performance - H&M reported Q3 net sales of 57 billion Swedish Krona and operating profit of 4.9 billion Swedish Krona, exceeding analyst expectations of 3.7 billion Krona [1] - The profit growth was attributed to improved customer service, increased gross margin of 52.9%, and effective cost control, which helped mitigate macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - H&M opened three significant new stores in China, including a flagship store in Shenzhen and the first brand experience center in Shanghai [1] Group 2: H&M Stock Reaction and Future Outlook - Following the earnings report, H&M's stock surged over 10% [2] - The company expects September sales to remain flat compared to the previous year, which is a challenging benchmark due to a prior 11% sales increase [2] - H&M's autumn collection has received positive market reception [2] Group 3: Costco Q4 Performance - Costco reported Q4 net sales of $84.432 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8% [3] - Total revenue reached approximately $86.156 billion (about 614.32 billion RMB), also up 8.1% year-on-year [3] - Excluding gasoline and foreign exchange fluctuations, same-store sales grew by 6.4%, surpassing analyst expectations [3] Group 4: Costco's Market Performance - U.S. comparable sales increased by 5.1% in Q4, with a full-year growth of 6.2% [3] - Canadian market saw a 6.3% increase in Q4, while other international markets grew by 8.6% [3] - E-commerce sales grew by 13.6% in Q4, maintaining double-digit growth [3] Group 5: Supply Chain and Inflation Insights - Costco's management noted stable supply chains and confidence in inventory levels for the holiday season [4] - The company is working closely with suppliers to adjust production locations and reduce costs to mitigate tariff impacts [4] - Inflation rates for non-food items have risen for the second consecutive quarter, primarily driven by imported goods [4] Group 6: Upcoming IPOs - Wanchen Group submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 23 [4] - The group anticipates significant revenue growth, projecting total income to rise from 9.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 32.33 billion RMB in 2024, a 247.9% increase [5] - Miniso's TOP TOY brand has initiated its IPO process, reporting substantial revenue growth and profitability in recent periods [6]

Company Dynamics - Miniso (09896.HK) plans to spin off its trendy toy brand TOP TOY and list it independently on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the proposal confirmed by the exchange [2] - TOP TOY, established in 2020, focuses on the design, development, procurement, and sales of trendy toys, building a comprehensive platform for the entire trendy toy industry chain [2] - The brand has developed a multi-layered IP matrix, combining self-owned IP, licensed IP, and third-party IP, while offering a diverse product range to meet consumer demands [2] IP Structure and Risks - As of June 30, 2025, TOP TOY has only 17 self-owned IPs, while licensed IPs total 43 and third-party IPs exceed 600, indicating a reliance on external IPs for revenue [3] - The potential expiration of key licenses or a decline in popularity of core licensed IPs could significantly impact product appeal and market performance [3] Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue has shown steady growth, with figures of 680 million RMB, 1.46 billion RMB, and 1.91 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, alongside an increase in gross profit from 140 million RMB to 620 million RMB [4] - The gross margin improved from 19.9% to 32.7%, and the company transitioned from a loss of 38.38 million RMB in 2022 to net profits of 210 million RMB and 290 million RMB in 2023 and 2024, respectively [4] Significance of Spin-off - The spin-off is crucial for TOP TOY as it will enhance its market expansion capabilities, strengthen independent operational capacity, and improve its ability to attract investment for future growth and IP development [4]

Group 1: TOPTOY IPO and Financial Performance - TOP TOY submitted an IPO application, with self-developed products accounting for nearly 50% of GMV[1] - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 was RMB 679 million, RMB 1.461 billion, RMB 1.909 billion, and RMB 1.360 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB -38 million, RMB 212 million, RMB 294 million, and RMB 180 million[1] - In 2024, TOP TOY achieved a GMV of RMB 2.4 billion in mainland China, with self-developed product revenue close to 50%[1] Group 2: Jihong Co. Q3 Performance Forecast - Jihong Co. expects net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to be between RMB 256.74 million and RMB 270.21 million, a year-on-year increase of 95.07% to 105.31%[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between RMB 208.74 million and RMB 222.21 million, with a year-on-year growth of 55.00% to 65.00%[2] - For Q3 2025, net profit is expected to be between RMB 120.11 million and RMB 133.58 million, a year-on-year increase of 83.03% to 103.55%[2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI technology upgrades, with beneficiaries including Keri International, Jiao Dian Technology, and Lan Sheng Co.[3] - New retail sector expected to perform beyond expectations, with beneficiaries including Miniso and Pop Mart[3] - Consumption recovery and cyclical sectors are anticipated to rebound, benefiting companies like Misu Group and Haidilao[3]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY, a rapidly growing collectible toy brand in China, has reported impressive financial data, with a 105.6% increase in revenue from 2022 to 2023 and a projected 38.2% growth in net profit for 2023 to 2024. However, there are several risk factors that investors should be aware of [1]. Business Model and Strategy - TOP TOY aims to build a comprehensive platform for the collectible toy industry, catering to the demands of trend-conscious consumers through a diversified IP strategy that includes proprietary, licensed, and third-party IPs [2]. - The company has established a multi-channel sales network, including offline stores, online platforms, and distributors, with the number of offline stores expected to reach 293 by June 30, 2025, and online sales accounting for 8.8% of total sales in the first half of 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - Revenue Growth: TOP TOY's revenue has shown significant growth, with figures reaching 6.79 billion yuan in 2022, projected to grow to 19.09 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [4][6]. - Net Profit: The company turned a profit with net income of 2.12 billion yuan in 2023, expected to rise to 2.94 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 38.2% increase [5][7]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin has steadily increased from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, driven by a higher proportion of self-developed products [8][9]. Revenue Composition - In the first half of 2025, the revenue composition includes 12.8% from direct retail, 25.2% from franchise sales, 51.6% from offline distributors, and 8.8% from online sales, indicating a diversified revenue stream [11]. Customer and Supplier Dynamics - The company has a high customer concentration, with the largest customer, Miniso Group, accounting for 45.5% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, which poses a risk if the relationship changes [20]. - Supplier concentration is relatively low, with the top five suppliers accounting for 19.3% to 21.0% of total purchases from 2022 to the first half of 2025, which helps mitigate risks associated with supplier dependency [21]. Management and Governance - The core management team has extensive experience in retail and finance, but there is a need for improved talent retention and incentive mechanisms as the company grows [23]. - Miniso Group holds a significant stake in TOP TOY, controlling approximately 86.9% of the issued share capital, which raises concerns about the influence of major shareholders on company decisions [22].

Group 1 - The company Miniso (09896) plans to spin off its subsidiary TOP TOY through an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The company has submitted a spin-off proposal to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which has confirmed that the proposed spin-off can proceed [1] - TOP TOY submitted its listing application form (A1 form) to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 26, 2025, through its joint sponsors [1] Group 2 - The proposed spin-off will be conducted through a global offering and distribution, and TOP TOY will remain a subsidiary of the company after the spin-off is completed [1] - TOP TOY was registered in the Cayman Islands on April 24, 2025, and is a trendy toy collection company primarily engaged in the design, development, procurement, and sales of trendy toys [1]

Group 1 - The company Miniso (09896) plans to spin off its subsidiary TOP TOY through an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The company has submitted a spin-off proposal to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which has confirmed that the proposed spin-off can proceed [1] - TOP TOY submitted its listing application form (A1 form) to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 26, 2025, seeking approval for its shares to be listed and traded on the main board [1] Group 2 - The proposed spin-off will be conducted through a global offering and distribution, and TOP TOY will remain a subsidiary of the company after the spin-off is completed [1] - TOP TOY was registered in the Cayman Islands on April 24, 2025, and is a company focused on the design, development, procurement, and sales of trendy toys [1]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso (09896.HK) announced its plan to spin off its subsidiary TOP TOY through an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the proposal already submitted and confirmed by the exchange [1] Group 1: Company Structure and Plans - The spin-off will allow TOP TOY to operate as an independent entity while remaining a subsidiary of Miniso after the completion of the proposed separation [1] - TOP TOY was established on April 24, 2025, in the Cayman Islands and focuses on the design, development, procurement, and sales of trendy toys [1] Group 2: Listing Process - On September 26, 2025, TOP TOY submitted its listing application form (A1 form) to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through its joint sponsors, seeking approval for its shares to be listed and traded on the main board [1] - The proposed spin-off will be executed through a global offering and distribution, although the specifics regarding the scale and structure of the global offering and distribution are yet to be finalized [1]

Core Insights - Letsvan has successfully launched WAKUKU as a competitive alternative to LABUBU, achieving rapid popularity in the crowded collectible toy market [3][4] - The success of WAKUKU highlights the challenges of innovation in the industry, as it relies on replicating existing successful models rather than creating unique IP [3][4] - The market dynamics are shifting, with Letsvan's strategy focusing on affordability and accessibility, contrasting with Bubble Mart's premium positioning [16][19] Company Overview - Letsvan, founded by Zhan Huiyu in 2020, initially struggled to gain recognition until the success of LABUBU, which prompted the launch of WAKUKU [4][8] - WAKUKU's design and marketing strategies closely mirror those of LABUBU, utilizing similar naming conventions and aesthetic elements to attract consumers [5][6] - The company has formed strategic partnerships, such as with Lehua Entertainment, to enhance its market presence and leverage celebrity endorsements for brand promotion [7][8] Market Positioning - WAKUKU is positioned as a cost-effective alternative to LABUBU, with a starting price of 59 yuan compared to LABUBU's 99 yuan, appealing to price-sensitive consumers [16][18] - The brand has gained traction through effective marketing strategies, including product placements in popular media and collaborations with influencers [7][8] - Letsvan's approach to market expansion includes participation in international toy exhibitions and establishing retail partnerships in Southeast Asia [7][8] Competitive Landscape - The collectible toy market is becoming increasingly competitive, with various companies attempting to carve out their niches, such as TOP TOY leveraging its retail channels [9][12] - While Letsvan focuses on replicating successful models, other competitors are exploring unique strategies to differentiate themselves in the market [9][12] - The overall market is witnessing a surge in new entrants, with over 5,100 companies currently operating in the collectible toy sector in China [23][24] Future Outlook - Letsvan is evolving its brand identity by rebranding to "Letsvan Qimengdao" to enhance its creative ecosystem and attract designers [22] - The company aims to strengthen its content creation capabilities and establish a more robust connection between designers and consumers [22] - As the market continues to grow, Letsvan is positioning itself to be a significant player in the collectible toy industry, aiming to replicate the success of established brands like Bubble Mart [24]