Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a structural transformation in the capital market, focusing on rebuilding confidence and addressing external demand pessimism [3][4] - The investment logic suggests a shift from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a resilient cycle expected in 2026, highlighting the value attributes of leading companies [9] - Key assumptions include a gradual decrease in the breeding sow inventory and proactive capacity control by pig companies, which may lead to reduced supply pressure and potential price recovery for pigs in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report identifies specific companies to focus on, such as leading low-cost and high-certainty firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as high-growth smaller pig companies [7] - The report outlines potential risks, including the possibility of breeding sow inventory not decreasing as expected, which could lead to an oversupply of pigs and downward pressure on prices [8] - The report also discusses the beef market, indicating that if the import impact continues, it could lead to downward pressure on beef prices, affecting the profitability of beef companies [16][24] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report highlights that the yellow chicken market may see price increases if breeding stocks continue to decline, while the white chicken market is expected to recover as macroeconomic activities improve [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the poultry market, noting that weak demand could lead to price declines and pressure on company performance [27][32] - The report suggests that the animal health sector will benefit from the recovery of livestock profitability, with a focus on companies that have strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines [33][36] Group 4 - The grain sector is expected to see upward price trends due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, with a focus on companies involved in seed production and transgenic varieties [40][41] - The report warns of potential risks in the seed industry, including weak demand for new varieties, which could lead to price declines and increased pressure on seed companies [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policies regarding the commercialization of new seed varieties, as delays could impact market expectations [46][48] Group 5 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, indicating potential risks related to pig output and price declines [50][56] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of key indicators, such as breeding sow inventory and market prices, to assess the performance of the companies in the livestock sector [56]

Group 1 - A total of 88 stocks in the A-share market experienced block trading today, with a total transaction value of 2.359 billion yuan [1] - The top three stocks by transaction value were Giant Network at 302 million yuan, Muyuan Foods at 187 million yuan, and New Asia Electronics at 130 million yuan [1] - Among the stocks, 4 were traded at par, 4 at a premium, and 80 at a discount; the highest premium rates were for Shenghua Biotech at 8.2%, Vanke A at 2.6%, and Jinko Power at 1.07% [1] Group 2 - The top buying amounts from institutional special seats were led by Giant Network at 302 million yuan, followed by Changchuan Technology at 105 million yuan and Tuojing Technology at 103 million yuan [2] - The top selling amounts from institutional special seats were led by Jinko Power at 99.4 million yuan and Zhongji Xuchuang at 16.36 million yuan [2]

S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 30 日 生猪养殖行业深度报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，东莞证券研 究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 布局盈利拐点 深 农林牧渔行业 | 图 | 27：SW 生猪养殖板块单季营收同比增速（%） 12 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 28：SW 生猪养殖板块单季归母净利润同比增速（%） 12 | | | 图 29：SW | 生猪养殖板块单季度毛利率净利率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 30：SW 生猪养殖板块单季度期间费用率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 31：我国生猪养殖年出栏户数占比（%） | 14 | | 图 | 32：我国生猪行业规模化程度（%） | 14 | 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 我国是全球最大的生猪及猪肉产需国。根据美国农业部2025年4 月份《牲畜和家 ...

| 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | 2025-12-30 | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 49.90 | 375.00 | | 18,712申信建投证券股份 | 国泰海通证券股份 | | | | | | | | 有限公司杭州萧山 | 有限公司杭州新业 | | | | | | | | 市心中路证券营业 | 路第一证券营业部 | | | | | | | | 部 | | 12月30日，牧原股份大宗交易成交375万股，成交额1.87亿元，占当日总成交额的7.4%，成交价49.9 元，较市场收盘价50.89元折价1.95%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aquaculture sector experienced a rise of 1.15% on December 30, with Jingji Zhino leading the gains, while the overall market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3965.12, unchanged, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13604.07, up by 0.49% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Jingji Zhino (000048) closed at 17.23, up by 5.90%, with a trading volume of 453,500 shares and a transaction value of 766 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included: - Shennong Group (605296) at 29.45, up by 2.08% [1]. - Muyuan Foods (002714) at 50.89, up by 1.98% [1]. - Lihua Co. (300761) at 20.78, up by 1.27% [1]. - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) at 17.12, up by 1.18% [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector saw a net outflow of 21.95 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 153 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow for key stocks included: - Muyuan Foods (002714) had a net inflow of 1.29 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 104 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - Jingji Zhino (000048) experienced a net inflow of 32.34 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow of 43.92 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - New Hope (000876) had a net inflow of 11.87 million yuan from institutional investors [3].

Economic News - The Ministry of Finance announced a tariff adjustment plan for 2026, implementing provisional import tax rates lower than the most-favored-nation rates on 935 items starting January 1, 2026, resulting in a total of 8,972 tariff items [1] - The State Taxation Administration allows advertising and business promotion expenses for cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and beverage manufacturing companies to be deducted up to 30% of annual sales revenue, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to enhance value creation capabilities and focus on effective investment in key areas such as infrastructure and energy resources [1] - The National Medical Insurance Administration reported that from January to November 2025, the total income of the basic medical insurance fund was 26,320.68 billion yuan, with total expenditures of 21,100.46 billion yuan, indicating stable operation of the fund [1] - The People's Bank of China will officially implement a new digital RMB framework starting January 1, 2026, with cumulative transactions reaching 34.8 billion and a total transaction amount of 16.7 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [1] Important Company Information - Unisoc is planning to acquire controlling or all shares of Ruineng Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment, with the transaction expected to be disclosed by January 15, 2026 [2] - Longpan Technology's subsidiary, Changzhou Lithium Source New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., will conduct maintenance on its lithium iron phosphate production line starting January 1, 2026, reducing output by approximately 5,000 tons, but this is not expected to significantly impact the company's performance in 2026 [4] - Ningbo Huaxiang signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Qianxing Future to enhance collaboration in the development, manufacturing, and sales of embodied intelligent robots, particularly quadruped robots [4] - Haisheng Pharmaceutical's investment in Nuo Wei Biotechnology's innovative drug for liver cancer has entered phase II clinical trials, marking a significant milestone in cancer treatment [4] - Jieli Rigging's controlling shareholder repurchased 20.05 million shares previously pledged to China Galaxy Securities, reducing the pledged shares to 38.34 million, which is 19.94% of the total shares [4] Daily Research Reports - The securities industry is expected to see improved performance in 2026 due to supportive policies and accelerated consolidation, despite facing challenges from global geopolitical events and domestic market pressures [5][6] - The report indicates that the average daily trading volume has increased since early 2025, with a notable rise in margin trading balances, suggesting a shift in asset allocation towards equity markets [6][7] - The report highlights the importance of self-operated investments for securities firms, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to growth amid market volatility [8] - The anticipated policy support in 2026 could lead to significant improvements in industry performance and valuation recovery, with a focus on innovative business models among leading firms [10]

Core Insights - The 20th China Brand Person Annual Conference was held from December 28 to 30, 2025, in Shenzhen, focusing on the theme "Who Earns Respect for China" and gathering over 2,000 elites from various sectors [1][43] - The event celebrated the achievements of past awardees and emphasized the importance of long-termism in brand development, as articulated by key speakers [46][40] Group 1: Event Overview - The conference was co-hosted by multiple organizations, including the Brand Alliance and the China Cultural Promotion Association, and featured a series of activities such as opening ceremonies, main forums, and closed-door discussions [1][43] - Keynote speeches and discussions highlighted the evolution of Chinese brands and future trends in brand building [1][40] Group 2: Keynote Insights - Notable speakers discussed various topics, including innovative business models, high-end brand methodologies, and the integration of AI thinking with long-term strategies [48][51] - The concept of "super innovation" was introduced, emphasizing a multi-dimensional approach to business practices, including aspects like "super products" and "super experiences" [50][8] Group 3: Brand Responsibility and Global Image - The conference underscored the role of Chinese entrepreneurs in shaping a trustworthy global image, highlighting the emotional resonance of Chinese stories in various fields [15][55] - It was noted that every Chinese individual represents the "China" brand, and maintaining this brand image is a collective responsibility [57][19] Group 4: Long-term Values and Health - Consensus among participants emphasized that values such as integrity, inclusiveness, and sustainability are crucial for brands to gain global respect [25][66] - The importance of personal health management and mental resilience for entrepreneurs was highlighted as a foundational element for long-term brand success [40][78] Group 5: Awards and Recognition - The conference featured the release of several prestigious lists, including the "TopBrand 2025 China Top Ten Brand Figures" and various awards recognizing outstanding contributions to brand development [80][42] - The event aimed to provide direction for strategic upgrades and image shaping of Chinese brands in the new era, fostering greater respect in the global market [80][42]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly elevated and the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization exceeded 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Sector Strategy - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks are positioned as a stabilizing force in the market, with a shift in risk appetite leading funds from extreme technology and dividend styles to the mid-range, providing opportunities for mid-cap blue chips [4] - The performance of cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals) and manufacturing (communications, military) has been validated by the market, suggesting a focus on the long-dormant consumer sector and waiting for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is viewed as having significant value due to extremely pessimistic expectations, with recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [5] - The market's pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026 is seen as underestimating inventory and capacity reduction, with historical trends indicating a likely market-driven capacity reduction [5] - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026, driven by the evolution of brain models [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from the future of mass production in humanoid robots [6]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between leading companies in the pig farming industry, Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, signifies a shift from traditional competition based on scale and price to a new model of cooperation and technology sharing aimed at achieving high-quality development in the industry [1][3] Group 1: Industry Collaboration - The two companies engaged in in-depth discussions on topics such as breeding health management, feed nutrition, and environmental solutions, allowing for mutual verification of data and management experiences [2] - A key consensus emerged that the core challenge in the pig farming industry is no longer merely about market share, but rather about addressing production efficiency bottlenecks and environmental constraints [1][2] - The collaboration aims to eliminate detrimental low-level price wars and blind capacity competition, focusing instead on enhancing industry efficiency through shared technology and management practices [1][2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Both companies are positioned to engage in substantial joint research and data sharing in areas such as disease control, genetic improvement, and waste resource utilization, which could lower systemic risks in the industry [2] - Muyuan Foods has previously shared its extensive research on African swine fever prevention and low-protein feed formulation, which has been widely adopted across the industry, showcasing a commitment to shared development [3] - The collaboration is expected to strengthen the competitive edge of China's pig farming industry, making it more resilient to cyclical fluctuations and enhancing its international competitiveness [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term pig prices may fluctuate strongly due to increased demand for New Year stocking and cured meat [21][22] - The white feather broiler market is experiencing upward momentum, with prices reaching a yearly high, driven by tight supply and farmer holding back stock [35] - The report highlights investment opportunities in the aquaculture sector, noting favorable price trends for certain aquatic products [41] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The agricultural sector increased by 0.25% during the latest trading week, ranking 23rd among the primary industries [13] - The performance of sub-sectors such as animal health showed significant gains, with notable increases in specific stocks [16] 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Pig Farming - Average pig price is 11.50 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.26% but a two-week increase of 1.02% [20] - The average price for piglets is 307 CNY/head, with a consistent week-on-week increase of 0.33% [21] - Daily slaughter volume is 237,000 heads, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.50% [21] 2.2. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather broilers is 7.82 CNY/kg, up 6.39% week-on-week [35] - The price for meat chicken chicks is 3.59 CNY/bird, with a week-on-week increase of 1.70% [35] - The market is characterized by tight supply and rising costs, leading to increased prices for processed chicken products [35] 2.3. Crop Sector - Corn prices averaged 2341.10 CNY/ton, down 0.45% week-on-week [38] - Domestic wheat prices averaged 2513.22 CNY/ton, down 0.16% week-on-week [38] - Sugar prices saw a slight rebound, averaging 5274.50 CNY/ton, up 1.12% week-on-week [38] 2.4. Aquaculture Sector - Prices for various aquatic products showed positive trends, with carp at 20.00 CNY/kg (up 11.11% year-on-year) and tilapia at 22.00 CNY/kg (up 10.00% year-on-year) [41] - The report suggests monitoring investment opportunities in the aquaculture sector due to favorable market conditions [41]