以下文章来源于望京博格投基 ，作者望京博格 望京博格投基 . 记录望京博格投资基金的故事，全网同名。公众号仅【望京博格投基】和【望京博格】两个号是本人，其他均为骗子 从最近两年恒生科技的走势来看 ， 每次创新高之后都会有一次比较大的回调 。 例如2024年的"924行情" 、 2025年初的AI行情 ， 以及2025年三 季度行情 ， 恒生科技都是在创新高之后经历比较大的回调 。 去年三季度追涨买入恒生科技的 ， 现在大多都是亏损的 。 即便如我这样睿智 ， 去年6月份横盘时加仓的恒生科技 ， 现在也开始亏钱了 。 结论 ： 最近一年恒生科技的持有体验真的非常差 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：望京博格 来源：雪球 恒生科技 从去年十月初以来累计跌幅超过20% 。 按这个跌幅 ， 已经进入技术性熊市了 。 接下来 ， 来聊聊 ： "恒生科技到底怎么了 ， 还值得加仓吗 ？ " 一、不适合追涨 二、估值优势显著 恒生科技最新市盈率为22.87倍 ， 处于上市以来28.75%的历史分位 ， 仍然算是低估值 。 A ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citi indicates that the Chinese internet industry is expected to perform strongly by 2025, driven by AI trends led by DeepSeek, with growth anticipated to continue into 2026, particularly in the competitive landscape of AI and generative video applications [1] Industry Summary - The competition between China and the United States in AI models, applications, cloud services, and autonomous driving (Robotaxi) is expected to intensify [1] - Despite geopolitical challenges, the Chinese gaming and e-commerce sectors are experiencing rapid growth in overseas markets, although there is a cautious outlook for the domestic e-commerce sector [1] Investment Strategy - Citi favors sectors such as AI, gaming, and health, predicting a year-on-year revenue growth of 12% and an adjusted EBIT growth of 29% for the industry [1] - The report suggests that China is likely to lead in the global application of AI [1] Valuation Insights - The report highlights that the current forecasted adjusted P/E ratio for the sector in 2026 is 16.1 times (13.7 times for 2027), which represents a discount of approximately 40% compared to U.S. peers, indicating attractive valuation [1] Preferred Stocks - Citi lists six preferred stocks for 2026, including Tencent Holdings (00700), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Alibaba-W (09988), NetEase-S (09899), Kuaishou-W (01024), and JD Health (09618) [1] - The report specifically notes optimism regarding Alibaba's cloud business, Tencent's AI applications, and Xiaomi's consumer-grade AI devices [1]

Core Insights - The ultimate goal of instant retail is not merely "faster" delivery but rather "better service" that effectively addresses consumer needs [1][3][16] - The industry is transitioning from "instant fulfillment" to "instant service," with over 70% of orders now catering to regular, scenario-based demands rather than emergency needs [3][5] Industry Evolution - Instant retail has evolved from focusing solely on speed to encompassing a broader range of services that meet diverse consumer needs [4][11] - The market size for instant retail in China is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026 and reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating significant growth potential beyond being a mere supplementary service [5][10] Service-Centric Approach - The competition in the instant retail sector is shifting from "category competition" and "speed competition" to "service competition" and "scenario competition," emphasizing the importance of integrating services with products [7][9] - Successful instant retail models will focus on providing solutions rather than just selling products, thereby enhancing consumer experience and satisfaction [12][13] Consumer-Centric Strategies - Understanding consumer needs and preferences is crucial for instant retail businesses to develop personalized and differentiated service offerings [13][15] - Platforms must act as enablers, providing support and resources to help retailers enhance service quality and meet evolving consumer demands [15][17] Future Outlook - The future of instant retail lies in its ability to become an integral part of consumers' daily lives, addressing various needs and challenges through tailored services [16][17] - Companies that prioritize service quality and consumer understanding will lead the industry, while those that remain focused on speed and product variety may face obsolescence [17][18]

2026年2月3日，港股科技股经历"黑色午间"。 外资为何突然不计成本地抛售？ 一份神秘的传闻名单正在市场疯传。 2026年2月3日，星期二，一个普通的交易日，却在午间前后上演了令无数投资者心跳骤停的一幕。 港股科技板块毫无征兆地集体"闪崩"，龙头腾讯控股盘 中跌幅一度超过5%，快手更是暴跌近7%。 短短几个小时，恒生科技指数跌幅超过4%，整个板块市值蒸发以数千亿港元计。 市场恐慌情绪迅速蔓延至A 股，引发连锁跳水。 指数放量破位，个股争相跳水。 这不仅仅是一次调整，更是情绪、资金与政策预期的三重绞杀。 带你复盘惊心动魄的每一刻。 这一切发生得极其突然。 上午开盘时，市场虽显疲弱，但并未出现崩塌迹象。 转折点发生在临近中午的11点前后，抛售盘如潮水般涌出，尤其是外资持股 集中的大型科技公司，成为被集中抛售的对象。 交易软件上的分时图，变成了一条条陡峭向下的直线。 从具体的个股表现来看，这是一场无差别的下跌。 被称为"定海神针"的腾讯控股，股价从上午的平稳走势，在午前突然放量下挫，最低时跌幅达到5.18%， 单日市值缩水超过3300亿港元。 以快手、哔哩哔哩为代表的短视频及内容平台公司跌幅更为惨烈，快手暴跌6. ...

Core Viewpoint - JD Insurance has launched its "New Year Festival" campaign, focusing on providing a wide range of insurance products to meet diverse risk management needs for users during the year-end and New Year period [1][2]. Group 1: Campaign Details - The campaign is themed "Choose Protection Freely, Add Flavor to the New Year" and includes various insurance types such as auto insurance, pet insurance, medical insurance, accident insurance, home insurance, travel insurance, and multiple savings products [1][2]. - Users can participate in a knowledge learning section on the JD app, and upon completion, they will have the opportunity to enter a lottery [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Products - In response to year-end financial planning needs, JD Insurance is offering exclusive benefits for savings-type insurance products [1][2]. - Users can earn rewards (JD Beans) by participating in the financial knowledge learning section on JD Finance before February 28 [1][2]. Group 3: Company Strategy - A representative from JD Insurance stated that the platform is a crucial part of the JD ecosystem, adhering to a full-chain service philosophy and collaborating with well-known insurance companies to provide a reliable and convenient insurance experience [1][2]. - JD Insurance plans to leverage JD Group's technology, supply chain, and service capabilities to continuously innovate its products and service models in the future [1][2].

Core Insights - The L4 autonomous logistics sector is experiencing rapid growth, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for commercialization and widespread adoption [1][20] - Major players in the domestic autonomous logistics market have secured significant funding, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the sector's potential [7][8] Industry Overview - The L4 autonomous logistics market is projected to reach a scale of 100,000 vehicles by 2026, with a long-term forecast of 750,000 vehicles by 2030 [10] - The market is currently dominated by over 13 key players, including New Stone, White Rhino, Youjia Innovation, and Jiushi Intelligent, with New Stone leading in delivery volume [2][4] Funding and Investment - In 2025, the autonomous driving sector in China saw total financing exceed 58.2 billion yuan, with the logistics segment attracting approximately 5.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 10% of the total [7][8] - Notable funding rounds include New Stone raising over 600 million USD (approximately 4.2 billion yuan) and White Rhino securing over 100 million USD [8] Market Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a shift towards lower hardware costs due to advancements in technology and increased competition, which may lead to lower vehicle prices [14][16] - Despite the growth, concerns about profitability persist, as many players face challenges in achieving sustainable cash flow amidst rising competition [14][16] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape for autonomous logistics vehicles is still evolving, with local standards varying significantly, which complicates market entry and operational consistency [16][17] - Government support for smart logistics and AI is crucial for the sector's growth, providing a favorable environment for L4 autonomous delivery vehicles [10][11] Conclusion - The L4 autonomous logistics sector is at a critical juncture, with the potential for large-scale deployment and commercialization, but it must navigate challenges related to profitability, regulatory compliance, and market demand [19][20]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The market turnover decreased to 82.799 billion [1] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect was 484 million, with Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 283 million and Shenzhen Stock Connect 201 million [1] Sector Performance - Energy and real estate sectors performed well, with coal-related assets rising due to supply constraints from Indonesia, leading to Yanzhou Coal Mining increasing over 10% and China Shenhua Energy rising over 5% [1] - Domestic property stocks also saw gains, with Shimao Group up over 14%, Sunac China up over 8%, Vanke up over 6%, and Yuexiu Property up over 6% [1] - Conversely, chip and tech stocks declined, with Shanghai Fudan down over 5%, Hua Hong Semiconductor down nearly 5%, and Tencent Holdings down nearly 4% [1] US Market Performance - The US stock market had mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.53%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.51% and 1.51% respectively [2] - Notable gainers included Amgen, which rose over 8%, and Nike, which increased by over 5% [2] - The tech sector faced challenges, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 1.95% and major chip stocks like AMD dropping over 17% [2] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of "technological self-reliance" and AI applications as key themes for future growth in the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that leading companies in these sectors may see medium to long-term development opportunities [3] - It is recommended to focus on sectors supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic consumption, such as sports apparel and non-essential services [3] - The report highlights the continued value of Hong Kong stocks centered around Chinese assets, particularly in technology, consumer sectors, and undervalued state-owned enterprises [3] Company Highlights - ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) is noted for its comprehensive communication manufacturing capabilities, with a projected revenue of 121.299 billion for 2024, despite a slight decline [10] - The company maintains a high gross margin of 37.91% and is expected to see significant growth in its server and storage revenue, particularly in the AI computing sector [10] - Analysts predict ZTE's net profits for 2025 and 2026 to be 7.98 billion and 8.81 billion RMB respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to its earnings potential [10]

Core Insights - The event "Shared Big Market · Export to China" and the Beijing International Boutique Fair took place on February 4, 2026, showcasing global premium products in Beijing [1] - The fair featured a variety of imported goods, including Spanish ham, Indonesian coffee beans, Kashmiri wool blankets, and Moldovan wine, catering to diverse consumer interests [3] - The event provided a platform for international exhibitors to connect with Chinese consumers, enhancing market promotion opportunities for their products [3][5] Group 1 - The fair included cultural displays and tasting experiences, allowing consumers to engage with traditional foods and beverages from various countries, such as Ethiopian coffee and Kazakh traditional dishes [5] - Representatives from various countries, including the UK and Germany, acknowledged the event as a significant opportunity for global products and services to enter the Chinese market [7] - Companies like JD Group and Wangfujing Group announced initiatives to support the introduction of overseas brands into the Chinese market, with JD Group planning to introduce 1,000 new overseas brands over the next three years [7] Group 2 - The Beijing International Boutique Fair series will continue with events in Shunyi and Chaoyang districts, focusing on high-value consumer goods and promoting international brands during the Spring Festival [7] - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce will coordinate promotional activities across districts to integrate quality imported products into the Spring Festival consumer market [7]

Group 1 - The core theme of consumer spending during the upcoming Spring Festival focuses on purchasing new year goods and gifts, with a notable increase in demand for smart and personalized products [1][2] - E-commerce platforms are leveraging technology and promotional activities to enhance consumer engagement and stimulate spending, indicating a robust consumer demand this year compared to previous years [1][3] Group 2 - Smart technology products are emerging as popular choices for new year gifts, with significant sales increases reported in home appliances, such as a 121% rise in sales of robotic vacuum cleaners and a 114% increase in embedded micro-steaming ovens [2] - The trend of "instant purchasing" for new year goods is gaining traction, with platforms like Meituan reporting substantial year-on-year sales growth in various categories, including a 572% increase in foot massage machines and a 503% increase in action cameras [2] Group 3 - The gifting of new year presents for elders and family members is a significant aspect of consumer behavior, with 45.6% of surveyed consumers prioritizing gifts for parents and elders, emphasizing health and safety as key considerations [3] - The e-commerce landscape is characterized by trends such as smart, personalized, and immediate consumption, driven by factors like consumption upgrades and improved infrastructure [3] Group 4 - Service consumption related to traditional activities, such as haircuts and cleaning, is experiencing a surge, with beauty services like hair dyeing seeing a 78% increase in search volume on Meituan [4] - The home cleaning service sector is also witnessing a peak in demand, particularly in major cities, with a doubling of orders for daily cleaning services [4] Group 5 - E-commerce platforms are actively developing AI applications to streamline the shopping experience, with initiatives like Meituan's AI search tool and JD's AI New Year Goods Map system aimed at enhancing consumer convenience and operational efficiency [5][6] - AI is expected to play a significant role in personalized recommendations and inventory management, potentially transforming the consumer market [6] Group 6 - New trends in gifting include creative products like blind boxes and culturally themed items, with 65.6% of consumers indicating plans to purchase themed gift boxes for the Year of the Horse [7] - The popularity of traditional clothing, such as Ming-style Hanfu, is on the rise, with sales in this category increasing by over 100% in the past month [7] Group 7 - E-commerce platforms are implementing various promotional strategies, including discount coupons and interactive live-streaming events, to further stimulate consumer spending during the New Year shopping season [7][8] - Future e-commerce operations should focus on enhancing value and building ecosystems that meet quality and cultural demands while expanding fulfillment networks in lower-tier markets [8]

Core Viewpoint - Apple products are being heavily promoted ahead of the Spring Festival, with significant discounts and subsidies available through JD.com, making it an attractive time for consumers to purchase Apple devices [1][10]. Group 1: iPhone Promotions - The iPhone 17 series offers a government subsidy of 500 yuan, with an additional trade-in discount of up to 800 yuan, bringing the price of the 256GB version down to 4699 yuan [3]. - The iPhone 17 Pro series includes a 300 yuan surprise coupon and a trade-in discount of up to 1100 yuan, with a total discount of 1500 yuan available, making the 256GB version available from 7699 yuan [3]. - Classic models like the iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 also have substantial discounts, with the 256GB iPhone 15 priced at 4099 yuan after subsidies, and the 256GB iPhone 16 starting at 5499 yuan [5]. Group 2: Mac Promotions - The MacBook Air M4 13-inch model is discounted by 1600 yuan, with a 15% government subsidy and a trade-in discount of up to 1100 yuan, resulting in a final price below 5269.2 yuan [7]. - The MacBook Pro M5 14-inch model has a price reduction of 800 yuan, with a government subsidy of 1500 yuan and a trade-in discount of up to 1000 yuan, leading to a starting price of 11138 yuan [7]. Group 3: Other Apple Products - The 11-inch iPad with A16 chip has a maximum discount of 1464 yuan, with a final price of 2416 yuan after applying a 15% government subsidy [9]. - The iPad Air 11-inch M3 version can be purchased for as low as 3699 yuan after discounts, and the Apple Watch Series 11 GPS 42mm version can be obtained for 1954 yuan after applying various subsidies [9]. - AirPods Pro 3 are available for 1599 yuan after a 5% government subsidy and a trade-in discount [9].