证券研究报告 关注自由现金流指数 ——3月基金配置展望 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 研究助理 2026年3月3日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 基金配置建议：关注自由现金流指数 2 2月回顾：A股、美股市场涨跌分化；美债、国债利率下行；商品价格先下后上，原油价格上涨，黄金上涨；美元指数上行，人民币升值。海外 政策和地缘环境扰动、AI替代恐慌等因素共同作用下，权益市场涨跌分化。全球避险情绪升温，美债、国债利率下行。 3月展望：资产配置的逻辑。股债轮动模型显示，2026年1月私人部门融资增速、通胀因子下行，基本面复苏信号信号有所波动。2月市场动量因 子收正，综合基本面与动量信号的择时模型继续看多权益资产。本月基于7个情绪指标构建的A股情绪指数显示，看多未来一个月权益市场表现 的情绪指标有所回落，市场情绪指数跌出乐观区间。基于宏观综合指标的港股择时策略显示看多 ...

Group 1: Fund Market Tracking - As of February 28, 2026, there are 13,817 existing funds in the market, an increase of 95 from the previous month, with total net asset value reaching 37.23 trillion yuan, up by 9.7 billion yuan [3][8] - In February 2026, the returns of value, balanced, and growth fund indices were 1.00%, 1.40%, and 0.72% respectively, indicating a performance difference among various fund styles [3][13] - The proportion of mixed, bond, and stock funds is the highest in terms of quantity, while money market, bond, and stock funds dominate in terms of asset scale [8][10] Group 2: ETF Market Tracking - As of February 28, 2026, there are 1,446 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, an increase of 16 from the previous period, with total assets under management at 5.39 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.79 billion yuan [4][18] - The median return for stock ETFs in February was 0.70%, while cross-border ETFs had the lowest median return at -3.30% [4][23] - The internal deviation of cross-border ETFs was the highest at 3.18%, while bond ETFs had the lowest internal deviation at 0.11% [4][23] Group 3: ETF Strategy Tracking - The industry ETF rotation strategy based on main capital focused on steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals in February 2026, achieving a cumulative return of 6.17%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a return of 0.09% [5][40] - The PB-ROE framework strategy focused on non-ferrous metals, transportation, and utilities in February 2026, with a cumulative return of 4.25%, also outperforming the CSI 300 index [5][47] - Since the beginning of 2023, the main capital industry ETF rotation strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 71.82%, compared to 21.67% for the CSI 300 index, resulting in an excess return of 50.15% [5][43]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20260224-20260227） 短期模型以中性为主，后市或维持中性震荡 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 1.98%，创业板指单周上涨 1.05%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量模型看空。智 能算法沪深 300 模型中性，智能算法中证 500 模型中性。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型绝大部分宽基指数看多。月历效应 模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看空。上下行收益差模型中性，上下行收益差相似模 型看多。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：钢铁、有色金属、基础化工、煤 炭、电力及公用事业，跌幅前五的行业为：传媒、消费者服务、食品饮料、非 银行金融、银行。从资金流向角度来说，有色金属、石油石化、银行、农林牧 渔主力资金净流入居前，传媒、电力设备及新能源、计算机、机械、基础化工 主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 95.75%，相较于上周增加了 24 个 bps，混合型基 ...

开栏语：一场规模高达50万亿的存款迁徙正蓄势待发。站在财富配置的历史拐点，如何审视这波天量资金 的洪流涌向？凭借净值化运作的专业禀赋，公募行业正以"固收+"为盾、FOF为矛，站上潮头，成为金融深 化改革的时代注脚。深度探究行业变化，智通财经推出《迎接50万亿存款迁徙》专题，以专业视角观察、 见证公募的发力，为投资者绘制新的财富蓝图。 智通财经2月27日讯（记者 闫军）固收+基金在2026年增量可期，已经成为公募基金业务在ETF之外，最大的共识。 一是50万亿高息存款到期的居民财富迁徙，二是险资加大投资、银行资金转移等机构增量资金涌入，两大历史机遇之 下，公募基金行业正达成共识：3万亿或仅是起点，2026年"固收+"业务的争夺战已然全面打响。 3万亿元，固收+最新规模达历史峰值 中金公司研报数据显示，截至2025年末，全市场2292只"固收+"基金规模合计达3万亿元，超过2022年2.7万亿元的历史 峰值，创下新高。环比增长9%，较去年同期增长56%。（固收+统计口径：一级债基、二级债基、可转债、偏债混 合、权益仓位不超过4成的灵活配置基金、偏债混合型FOF）。 | 排 | | | 2021-2025年基金公司 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.04% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.51 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The rare metals and rare earth sectors led the gains, with several ETFs in these categories rising over 4%, including the Rare Metals ETF from ICBC, which increased by 4.96% [2] - Other notable performers included the Rare Metals ETFs from Jiashi and Guangfa, both up by 4.68%, and the Rare Metals ETF Fund from Huafu, which rose by 4.55% [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector also saw significant increases, with the Non-Ferrous Metals ETF from Tianhong up by 4.28% and the Non-Ferrous ETF from Huashan rising by 4.17% [3] Declining Sectors - The semiconductor equipment sector experienced a notable pullback, with several ETFs in this category showing declines, including the Semiconductor Equipment ETF from Guotai, which fell by 2.16% [4] - The small-cap growth style, particularly in the ChiNext and National 2000 indices, faced pressure as funds rotated out of previously popular themes into cyclical resource sectors for safety [4] Trading Activity - The Short-term Bond ETF from Haifutong led trading activity with a turnover of 576.06 billion yuan, followed by the National Debt ETF from Huaxia at 168.25 billion yuan and the Sci-Tech Bond ETF from Nanfang at 137.24 billion yuan [5] - The turnover rates were high for bond ETFs, with the Sci-Tech Bond ETF from Nanfang achieving a turnover rate of 156.87%, indicating strong liquidity in this segment [6] ETF Issuance - Six new ETFs are set to launch, focusing on Hong Kong Stock Connect and Sci-Tech sectors, with fundraising starting on March 2, 2026 [8] - The Cash Flow ETF from Great Wall will track the National Index of Free Cash Flow, while the Engineering Machinery ETF from Penghua will follow the China Securities Engineering Machinery Theme Index [9] - Cross-border products include the Internet ETFs from ICBC and Xingye, which will track the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index [9][10]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index rebounded, reaching 5156.06 points, up 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 11.73 billion shares and a turnover of 32.5 billion HKD, indicating a moderate increase in trading activity [1] - The current PE-TTM of the Hang Seng Technology Index is 21.35 times, which is at a historical low of 26.0% over the past year, providing a significant valuation advantage compared to the STAR 50 Index (165 times) and the NASDAQ 100 Index (34 times) [1] - The market sentiment is gradually improving, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Index rising 0.96%, reflecting a recovery in overall market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The moderate rise in the Hang Seng Technology Index reflects a gradual repair of market sentiment, supported by the AI partnership emphasis from Anthropic, alleviating concerns about traditional software companies being replaced by AI [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (520570) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index and includes 30 large-cap, liquid tech companies listed in Hong Kong, making it a key tool for capturing trends in the Hong Kong tech sector [2] - The combination of low historical valuations, continued inflow of southbound funds, and the acceleration of AI commercialization suggests that the index may continue to experience structural upward movement in the short term, with a sustained recovery logic in the medium term [2]

从建投能源十大流通股东角度 2月27日，建投能源涨5.09%，截至发稿，报9.49元/股，成交3.44亿元，换手率3.39%，总市值171.13亿 元。建投能源股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅8.01%。 资料显示，河北建投能源投资股份有限公司位于河北省石家庄市裕华西路9号裕园广场A座17层，成立 日期1994年1月18日，上市日期1996年6月6日，公司主营业务涉及投资、建设、运营管理以电力生产为 主的能源项目。主营业务收入构成为：火力发电电量78.99%，火力发电热量12.00%，热力供应6.11%， 餐饮住宿服务1.33%，光伏发电0.86%，其他0.43%，能源服务0.27%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 数据显示，南方基金旗下1只基金位居建投能源十大流通股东。南方中证1000ETF（512100）三季度减 持5.13万股，持有股数662.36万股，占流通股的比例为0.61%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约3 ...

成长板块走低，创业板成长ETF、深成长ETF大成分别跌3%、2.79%。半导体设备板块回调，半导 体设备ETF、半导体设备ETF、科创半导体ETF、通信ETF、通信ETF华夏、5GETF博时、通信设备ETF 分别跌2.77%、2.75%、2.73%、2.52%、2.40%、2.33%和2.20%。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com A股三大指数早盘集体下挫，截至午盘，沪指跌0.17%，深成指跌0.68%，创业板指跌1.46%，北证 50指数跌0.74%，沪深京三市半日成交额15966亿元，较上日缩量532亿元。全市场超2300只个股上涨。 板块题材上，小金属、算力租赁、云计算、煤炭开采加工、跨境支付、钢铁、光伏设备、AI应用、旅 游及酒店板块涨幅居前；造纸、PCB、CPO、存储芯片、电池、光刻机、PET铜箔板块跌幅居前。 ETF方面，AI应用回暖，创业板软件ETF华夏、 ...

市场早盘震荡调整，创业板指跌超1%，中证A500指数下跌0.49%。从板块来看，算力租赁概念集体爆发，有色金属板块反复活跃，AI编程概念走强；下跌 方面，半导体、通信概念走弱。 截至上午收盘，场内跟踪中证A500指数的ETF小幅下跌。其中，有10只中证A500相关ETF成交额超1亿元，2只超58亿元。A500ETF基金、A500ETF华泰柏瑞 早盘成交额分别为70.49亿元、58.21亿元。 每日经济新闻 有券商表示，中期来看，当前经济基本面、宏观政策、海外市场等暂不支持A股走出趋势性行情，建议合理控制仓位，静待宏观因素进一步明朗，等待市场 自发选择突破方向以及主线板块。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 IOPV 溢折率 换手率 | 成交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512050 | A500ETF基金 | 1.247 | -0.56% 1.2480 -0.08% 19.26% | | | 563360 | A500ETF华泰柏瑞 | 1.325 | -0.53% 1.3255 -0.04% 13.31% | | | 159338 | 中证A500ETF ...

南方中证1000ETF（512100）基金经理为崔蕾。 2月27日，智微智能涨5.17%，截至发稿，报62.20元/股，成交11.27亿元，换手率15.58%，总市值156.90 亿元。 资料显示，深圳市智微智能科技股份有限公司位于深圳市南山区西丽街道兴科路66号乐普大厦东塔23 层，成立日期2011年9月7日，上市日期2022年8月15日，公司主营业务涉及主要从事教育办公类、消费 类、网络设备类、网络安全类、零售类及其他电子设备产品的研发、生产、销售及服务。主营业务收入 构成为：行业终端53.57%，ICT基础设施15.78%，智算业务15.31%，其他7.88%，工业物联网7.46%。 从智微智能十大流通股东角度 数据显示，南方基金旗下1只基金位居智微智能十大流通股东。南方中证1000ETF（512100）三季度减 持1.08万股，持有股数68.73万股，占流通股的比例为0.58%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约210.31万元。 南方中证1000ETF（512100）成立日期2016年9月29日，最新规模789.96亿。今年以来收益11.77%，同 类排名1341/5574；近一年收益31.9%，同类排名18 ...