易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 12 月 17 日 宋亭亭 汽车行业首席研究员 邮箱： songtingting021619@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：短期扰动之外美国私人就业维持扩张 概览：11 月美国新增非农 6.4 万，高于彭博一致预期的 5 万，10 月为-10.5 万；11 月失业率较 9 月超预期上行 0.2pp 至 4.6%，劳动参与率也较 9 月上 行 0.1pp 至 62.5%；小时工资环比增速较 10 月回落 0.3pp 至 0.1%，不及预 期的 0.3%；每周工时较 9 月小幅回升 0.1 小时至 34.3 小时，高于预期。由 于政府关门，10 月失业率等家庭调查数据缺失，9 月底 DOGE 买断计划到期 以及政府关门对 10 月新增非农数据也产生较大扰动，剔除政府部门后的私人 部门就业维持一定韧性。失业率上升，叠加此后公布的 12 月 Markit PMI 偏 弱，降息预期小幅升温。截至北京时间 23 点 20 分，相较数据公布前，市场 定价的 2026 年累计降息预期上行 2bp 至 60bp，2 年期美债收益率下行 3b ...

建筑装饰行业周报 中央经济会议定调"双宽松" ，增量政策 及重点工程有望推进 2025 年 12 月 16 日 【投资要点】 【配置建议】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王翩翩 证书编号：S1160524060001 证券分析师：郁晾 证书编号：S1160524100004 相对指数表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/12 2025/6 2025/12 建筑装饰 沪深300 相关研究 《六部门联合发布促进消费方案，推荐机 器人转型企业》 2025.12.01 《美方就结束俄乌冲突提出 28 点新计划， 继续关注"一带一路"周边地区出海》 2025.11.24 《10 月固投延续下滑，适度宽松的货币政 策持续发力，看好战略工程推进》 《沉潜与时近，古韵焕新声》 2025.11.16 《武桐树再签战略合作协议，继续看好新 质生产力转型方向》 2025.11.10 行 业 研 究 / 建 筑 装 饰 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025.11.20 板块行情回顾：上周建筑装饰（SW）指数下跌 1.59%，其中园林工程 （+1.74%）、基建市政工 ...

证券之星消息，12月15日，一带一路（399991）指数报收于2865.35点，跌0.45%，成交1314.54亿元，换 手率0.74%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有35家，菲利华以8.52%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有54家，锐捷网 络以5.64%的跌幅领跌。 一带一路（399991）指数十大成份股详情如下： 资金流向方面，一带一路（399991）指数成份股当日主力资金净流出合计54.96亿元，游资资金净流入合 计18.61亿元，散户资金净流入合计36.35亿元。成份股资金流向详情见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 | 3.96亿 | 16.00% | -1.02 乙 | -4.13% | -2.94 Z | -11.87% | | 300395 | 菲利华 | 3.39 Z | 7.97% | -1.05亿 | -2.46% | -2.34 Z | -5.51% | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][25]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment in China showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 1.9% [2][3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment has seen a widening decline, necessitating a stabilization of investment. Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][3]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 15.9% from January to November 2025, indicating a weak recovery trajectory [11][3]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment is 2.6%, with a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Manufacturing investment has increased by 1.9%, but this is still a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, with a decrease of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Specific sectors such as transportation, storage, and postal services saw a decline of 0.1%, while water, environment, and public facilities management experienced a decline of 6.3% [4]. Regional Investment Trends - Eastern regions reported a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, while central and western regions saw declines of 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively. The northeastern region faced a significant decline of 14.0% [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% [11]. - The current cycle is characterized by excessive clearing of supply entities and difficulties in inventory replenishment, leading to a slow recovery in investment [11]. Investment Recommendations - For 2026, the industry is expected to stabilize, with emerging sectors likely to benefit from major national strategies. Key companies to watch include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others in new infrastructure and overseas markets [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment growth in China has further declined, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% for January to November 2025, a drop of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period [2][3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment has seen an expanded decline, necessitating measures to stabilize investment. Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% for January to November 2025, indicating a weak recovery trajectory [11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment is -2.6%, with manufacturing investment showing a slight increase of 1.9% [2][3]. - The decline in traditional infrastructure investment has intensified, with significant drops in various sectors, including transportation and public facilities [4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with notable declines in transportation and environmental management sectors [4]. - Regional investment disparities are evident, with the eastern region experiencing a 6.6% decline year-on-year [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% [11]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in real estate investment due to challenges in inventory replenishment and supply chain issues [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that in 2026, industry investment is expected to stabilize, with emerging sectors likely to benefit from national strategic initiatives [15]. - Specific companies are highlighted for potential investment, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others in the new infrastructure and overseas markets [15].

【通信】比特币矿场转型 AIDC：现状与展望——20251212 研究视点 【计算机】空天时代认知不断加深——20251214 【房地产】REITs 周报——二级涨跌互现，市政水利及数据中心板块表 现较优——20251214 【煤炭】2025 年美国气价高企驱动煤电消费回升——20251214 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 15 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 市场的震荡调整态势不改 今日概览 重磅研报 | 【宏观】高频半月观—地产销售降超三成，大宗涨跌互现——20251214 | | 执业证书编号：S0680522080002 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【宏观】社融好于季节性的背后——20251212 | | 邮箱：yangyitao@gszq.com | | | | | 【策略】A 2026 年策略展望： 牛市从估值驱动到业绩驱动—— | 股 | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 20251212 | | | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 【金融工程】市场的震荡调整态势不改——202 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction engineering industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize investment and implement major projects to support economic growth [3][4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) urges central enterprises to actively promote the implementation of significant projects to ensure stable supply and prices of essential products [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance highlights the importance of government investment in driving economic recovery and encourages the issuance of long-term special bonds to support major construction projects [6] Summary by Sections Recent Key Reports - The report discusses the need for high-demand, high-barrier, and high-profit leading companies in the construction sector, recommending sectors such as AI, controlled nuclear fusion, and low-altitude economy [11][13] - It notes that the construction industry has seen a decline in net profit, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in the first three quarters [15][16] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include China State Construction (dividend yield 5.25%), China Railway (dividend yield 4.80%), and China Communications Construction (dividend yield 1.92%) [9][29] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and stable growth, particularly in the context of debt reduction and anti-competitive policies [12][29] Macro/Meso/Micro Data - The report indicates a projected increase in broad infrastructure funding by 7.3% in 2025, driven by government bonds and domestic loans [32][34] - It highlights the importance of private capital participation in infrastructure projects to enhance funding and project execution [28]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of bidding for nuclear fusion projects and the operational launch of the Liebherr Nantong base, focusing on nuclear power and marine engineering modules [6][15][28] - The report highlights the structural recovery of infrastructure investment, particularly in Sichuan and Xinjiang, and recommends investments in low-valuation central state-owned enterprises [6][34] - The report tracks the development of cleanroom technology and the increasing capital expenditure of Taiwanese electronics companies in the U.S., indicating a trend of the Taiwanese supply chain moving to the U.S. [6][34] Group 1: Nuclear Fusion and Power Projects - The signing of a joint statement between China and France on December 4, 2025, promotes the development of nuclear power, recognizing nuclear fusion energy as a significant direction for future energy development [6][15] - The Liebherr Nantong base is expected to achieve an annual output value of CNY 560 million for nuclear modules and CNY 640 million for oil and gas energy modules, addressing the decline in traditional chemical business demand [6][28] - The report notes that the modular construction method in nuclear power can significantly shorten construction periods, with the Liebherr Nantong base now operational [6][28] Group 2: Cleanroom and Coal Chemical Industry - The report tracks the cleanroom sector, noting that TSMC plans to invest USD 165 billion in capital expenditures in the U.S., with Foxconn and Wistron also planning significant investments [6][34] - In the coal chemical sector, projects are progressing steadily, with Xinjiang remaining a primary investment area, including a 1.5 million tons/year coal-to-ethylene project [6][34] - The average price of medium and heavy plates in 13 regions decreased by 0.9%, while rebar prices fell by 1.0%, indicating a slight decline in steel prices [6][34] Group 3: Financial Tracking and Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that special bonds issued for refinancing have reached CNY 2.01 trillion, with a cumulative issuance of CNY 4.5 trillion in special bonds for the year, reflecting a 13.8% year-on-year increase [6][34] - The report recommends focusing on four main investment lines: infrastructure recovery, safety resources, technology in high-end manufacturing, and overseas business opportunities [6][34] - The funding availability rate for construction sites is reported at 59.74%, showing a slight increase from the previous week [6][34]

建筑装饰 2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 推动投资止跌回稳，积极有序化解政府债务 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251208-20251212） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 南方基金 南方基金管理股份有限公司(reports@southernfund.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.59%，沪深 300 指 数-0.08%，相对收益为-1.51pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为专业 工程（+0.73%）、基建央企（-1.86%）、基建国企（-2 ...

袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 建筑装饰 2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 推动投资止跌回稳，积极有序化解政府债务 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251208-20251212） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.59%，沪深 300 指 数-0.08%，相对收益为-1.51pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为专业 工程（+0.73%）、基建央企（-1.86%）、基建国企（-2.08%），对应行业 内三个公司：亚翔集成（+25.20%）、中国核建（+6. ...