| [行Ta业ble_Industry] : | 基础化工 | | --- | --- | | 日期: | 2026年03月03日 shzqdatemark | | [T分ab析le师_Author] : | 于庭泽 | | SAC 编号: | S0870523040001 | | 分析师: | 郭吟冬 | 行 业 周 报 [Table增_R持at（ing维] 持） 证 券 研 究 报 告 化工品价格走势 过去一周涨幅排名前五的产品分别为：液氯（50.00%）、分散黑ECT 300%（22.22%）、碳酸锂（工业级）（20.35%）、碳酸锂（电池 级）（19.62%）、粗酚（13.59%）。过去一周跌幅前五的产品分别 为 ： 纯 MDI （ -10.20% ） 、 NYMEX 天 然 气 （ -6.23% ） 、 电 石 （ - 5.60%）、LDPE（-3.35%）、浓硝酸（-3.33%）。 SAC 编号: S0870525110001 [最Ta近bl一e_年Qu行o业teP指ic数] 与沪深 300 比较 [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《国际油价大幅上涨，关注化工涨价行情 ——基础化工行 ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 关注油价上涨，关注化工旺季到来—看好全球化 工反内卷大周期+AI 需求大周期 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 2026 年 2 月 26 日，国海化工景气指数为 94.19，较 2026 年 2 月 19 日上升 0.22。 投资建议： 从全球范围看，中国化工优势企业的成本和效率优势已经非常稳固，龙 头企业已经进入了业绩长周期向上的阶段。同时，对于部分供给端受限 的行业，随着需求的回升，这部分行业的景气度有望持续提升，值得重 点关注。碳排放管控下的反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望 使全球以及中国化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓，并对部 ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停，巴斯 夫再度调高 MDI 报价 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.98%，创业板指数上涨 1.05%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，中信基础化工指数上涨 6.21%，申万化工指数上涨 7.15%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为磷 肥及磷化工(18.51%)、纯碱(14.02%)、复合肥(13.17%)、钛白粉(10.63%)、有机 硅(9.76%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为印染化学品(1.39%)、涂料油 墨颜料(1.81%)、改性塑料(2.13%)、轮胎(2.63%)、涤纶(2.75%)。 本周行业主要动态： 乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停。韩国政府 2 月 25 日宣布提供 2.1 万亿韩 元(约合人民币 100 亿元)的财政和税收支持，用于乐天化学公司和 HD 现代 化学公司在大山工业园区的重组项目。这是韩国石化行业大规模自救计划 中首个获批的重组项目。根据重组计划，乐天化学将把位于韩国忠清南道 的大仙 ...

2025年度山东省十大科技创新成果日前在山东济南发布。其中，山东道恩高分子材料股份有限公司"高 端轮胎阻隔材料DVA"项目成功入选，成为橡胶新材料领域惟一上榜项目。这一新材料的产业化破局， 关键在于玲珑轮胎与道恩联手攻坚。在将DVA从实验室配方变为量产产品过程中，玲珑以深厚制造经 验，提供了决定性工艺解决方案，成功打破欧美企业在高端轮胎材料领域长期的技术垄断。DVA材料 是一种用于轮胎气密层的新型高性能动态硫化合金材料，该材料的气密性可达传统材料的7~10倍，且 自身重量非常轻，能让轮胎重量大幅度降低，显著降低滚动阻力，对提升车辆节油性能和新能源车续驶 里程具有重要价值，为轮胎行业的绿色化、高性能化发展提供了关键材料支撑。玲珑携手道恩攻克 DVA产业化难题自2008年国际轮胎巨头提出DVA技术以来，它的商业化之路始终布满挑战。DVA材料 表面如塑料般光滑，与轮胎内壁难以实现稳定牢固的贴合，正是这一看似微小的物理特性，在过去多 年，成为制约全球行业将理论优势转化为实际产品的"魔鬼细节"。DVA的攻关不是孤军奋战。它的背后 是一张覆盖材料、装备、工艺与终端应用的紧密协同网络。面对这一全球性技术难题，2020年，道 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2023, the market discussed a peak of 16 trillion yuan in "excess savings," with approximately 76-77 trillion yuan of residential time deposits maturing in 2026, indicating a historical peak[5] - The maturing deposits in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to reach 32-34 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant seasonal pattern[6] - The actual pressure from maturing deposits is limited, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025[6] Group 2: Interest Rate and Asset Allocation - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, with 32% of the total maturing deposits being two years or older, indicating a core pressure for renewal[6] - The renewal rate for deposits in 2025 remained close to 90%, suggesting that low interest rates do not automatically trigger a shift in risk appetite among residents[7] - The anticipated migration of deposits to other assets is expected to occur slowly and in a dispersed manner, with a potential 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in time deposits being a marginal pricing variable for equity and bond markets[7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 9.8%, the highest since 1946, with China facing the highest actual tariff rate of 30.9%[9] - The actual tariff increases have significantly impacted trade dynamics, with China and India experiencing the largest increases in effective tariffs compared to 2024, at 20.2 and 17.3 percentage points respectively[10] - Despite tariff pressures, China's export position remains robust, maintaining the largest share of global exports, while the U.S. has shifted its import structure towards North America and Europe[11] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese economy is shifting focus towards domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with consumer spending projected to account for 56.6% of GDP by 2024, still below developed economies[39] - Consumer confidence is stabilizing, with improvements in disposable income growth and a reduction in the crowding-out effect of precautionary savings on consumption[40] - The recovery in domestic demand is supported by a reasonable rise in prices, which is expected to stimulate consumption and improve corporate profitability[40]

| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-13 09:00——2026-02-24 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《有多少存款：可供"搬家"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观专题：《关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《春节期间：海外有何变化》2026-02-22 4 | | |  | 宏观周报：《新春经济温和修复》2026-02-22 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎》2026-02-21 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《"K 型分化"的边际收敛》2026-02-21 6 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《超级核心通胀压力仍存》2026-02-14 7 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《M2 增速：创新高的背后》2026-02-14 8 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的"有力转折"》2 ...

伴随着中国经济的飞速增长，中国汽车市场也在飞速增长，短短20年的时间，汽车保有量跃居世界前列。凭借着得天独厚的市场条件，中国国内本土汽车 品牌如雨后春笋一般迅速成长。 国产汽车拒绝国产轮胎 对于国产轮胎企业而言，现阶段想要与欧美那些大牌汽车厂商达成密切合作，PK掉米其林、普利司通这些全球驰名品牌，无异于是"虎口夺食"，其中的 难度可以想象。但好在我们的国产车企正在雄起，国产轮胎要想与"本是同根生"的国产汽车联手，想来应该不是一件难事。 因为在通常情况下，本国的汽车品牌都会优先选择配套土生土长的轮胎。 国产汽车拒绝国产轮胎 通过2023年新车原配轮胎排行榜也能看得出来，排在前五的国内轮胎企业只有玲珑（阿特拉斯）一家，前十之列的轮胎企业也仅有玲珑、朝阳两家轮胎企 业进入。 在高端轮胎之列更是难以看到国产轮胎的身影，即使国产车有很多超过30万的车，但他们大都是选择米其林、德国马牌、倍耐力等轮胎企业。 就像日本车几乎都配套普利司通、优科豪马等日本轮胎，美国车则多配套固特异等美国轮胎，更别提一向拥有十分强烈的民族保护意识的韩国了，韩国车 当然配韩泰、锦湖、耐克森这些韩国轮胎了。 那么中国的国产汽车品牌，是否也这么"护短 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：春节期间，特朗普关税被判定违法，以及美伊军事冲突风险升温对全球资产价 格带来扰动，原油与黄金均有所上涨。美国经济韧性仍存，通胀回落进展或将较为颠簸，部分联 储官员提及加息可能。未来仍需关注特朗普关税政策的不确定性扰动。 2、【策略研究】：中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升 与地产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 3、【固定收益研究】：经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升 带来的扰动。 4、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：我们认为①截至 2.12 日的美棉周度出口放量、②2.19 日发布的 美国农业展望论坛明确新棉季全球供需收紧基调、③近期美国与东南亚国家关税互惠政策等多重 积极边际变化夯实美棉筑底并逐步打开中长期向上空间的趋势，持续重点推荐百隆东方、关注相 关标的天虹国际集团。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweix ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel cord industry in China is experiencing fluctuations in market size due to changes in product specifications, price volatility, and corporate pricing strategies, with a projected market size of approximately 232.97 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [1][13]. Industry Overview - Steel cord is a specialized fine steel wire made from high-carbon steel, crucial for various types of tires, including passenger cars, light trucks, heavy trucks, engineering machinery, and aircraft [1]. - The market size for steel cord in China has shown significant volatility, recovering from 148.9 billion yuan in 2016 to 194.21 billion yuan in 2019, before declining in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic [1][12]. - The market rebounded to 222.68 billion yuan in 2021 and has continued to grow since, supported by the automotive and tire industries and government policies promoting new energy vehicles [1][12]. Industry Development History - The steel cord industry in China began in the 1960s, with significant advancements occurring in the 1980s and 1990s, leading to the establishment of key production enterprises [5]. - By the 21st century, the industry matured, with a high market concentration and a shift towards technological innovation and quality improvement to enhance competitiveness [5][11]. Industry Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to promote the development of the steel cord industry, focusing on green and low-carbon transformation in traditional industries [7]. - Policies aim to optimize production processes and enhance energy efficiency, which are crucial for the industry's sustainable growth [7]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the steel cord industry includes raw materials like steel wire rods and production equipment, while the midstream involves the manufacturing of steel cords [8]. - The downstream applications are primarily in the production of radial tires for various vehicles, indicating a focused market demand [8]. Current Market Situation - The domestic steel cord market has transitioned from a supply-demand imbalance to a situation where domestic production meets the needs of the tire industry, reducing reliance on imports [11]. - In 2023, China's steel cord production exceeded 3 million tons, marking a 20.69% year-on-year increase, with projections for continued growth in production and demand through 2025 [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - The steel cord industry features a multi-layered competitive structure, with multinational companies like Bekaert leading in high-end markets, while domestic leaders such as Xingda International and Hengxing Technology dominate mid to high-end segments [13][14]. - Smaller specialized companies are focusing on niche markets and differentiated products, while the industry is witnessing a consolidation trend towards larger, more technologically advanced firms [13]. Future Trends - The industry is expected to advance towards higher strength and lightweight materials, integrating new technologies for improved performance [15]. - Sustainable manufacturing practices and circular economy principles are becoming central to production processes, aiming to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions [16]. - The integration of smart manufacturing technologies, including IoT and AI, is anticipated to enhance production efficiency and supply chain management [17].