证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 27 日 [Table_Title] Eramet 2025Q4 镍矿产量环比增长 8%至 1330.3 万 湿吨，Centenario 工厂碳酸锂产量为 3900 吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q4 生产经营情况 1）镍 ①镍矿 2025Q4，PT WBN 可销售的镍矿产量（100%基础）为 1330.3 万湿吨，环比增长 8%，同比减少 4%。 2025Q4，PT WBN 镍矿对外销量（100%基础）为 1823.4 万湿吨，环比增长 97%，同比增长 8%。 继 2025 年 7 月 RKAB 上调后，镍矿外部销售量全年总计 3850 万吨，同比增长 27%。然而，这一增长伴随着产品组合 的不利变化。腐泥土销量占总销量的 64%，为 2550 万吨，同 比下降 11%。为了尽快销售修订后的 RKAB 授权的销量，低 品位腐泥土作为高品位腐泥土的补充进行销售，从而拉低了平 均品位（平均下降约 13%）。褐铁矿销量占总销量的 34%，为 1310 万吨 ...

记者梳理发现，近年来锰硅价格几次大涨多由锰矿端推动。去年海外锰矿发运也有扰动，导致锰硅价格 上涨，但持续性不强，随着发运的恢复，锰硅价格快速回落。 2月26日，锰硅期货主力2605合约收涨2.85%，报5918元/吨；硅铁期货主力2605合约收涨0.98%，报5538 元/吨。 当日，市场传出"南非2026年度预算案于2026年2月25日公布，锰矿电力成本上涨，7月1日开始征收15% 生态出口税"的消息。期货日报记者多方交叉求证，该消息为不实消息。 据记者了解，南非2026年度预算案中未提及锰矿电力成本上涨相关内容。预算案仅整体提及南非能源领 域的改革方向（稳定电力供应、引入私人投资、推动可再生能源），以及燃油税等整体能源税收的上 调，未针对锰矿行业单独调整电力成本。预算案中无"7月1日开始征收15%生态出口税"的任何条款。 一位不愿透露姓名的企业人士告诉记者，市场更多担忧的是供应。 "26日锰硅价格的上涨，更多是价格低位下对锰矿发运扰动的反应，下游需求及库存压力仍然较大。2— 3月海外锰矿发运出现延期、减量现象，工厂采购需求虽未完全展开，但锰矿价格支撑较强，节前工厂 备库较为充分，目前并不急于采购，预计3月 ...

"硅铁与锰硅虽同属铁合金，但硅铁生产中不涉及锰矿。因此，虽在锰硅带动下，硅铁价格有所上行， 但涨幅与锰硅有明显差距。硅铁自身供需和库存结构略好于锰硅，价格支撑也更强，库存压力较小，且 出口能缓解国内供应的部分压力。需要关注的是，未来随着海外产能的投放，出口压力也在逐步增 加。"段智栈说。 关于当前锰矿产销情况，国投期货黑色金属高级分析师李啸尘告诉记者，South32涉及在南非的锰矿开 采和销售业务。从South32最新报告来看，生产维持正常水平，长期目标为恢复至2024年澳大利亚矿山 遭遇不可抗力之前的水平。Eramet产量维持正常水平，但加蓬铁路运力一般，该公司从2025年开始已经 同比下调了发运计划，目前未计划上调发运目标。 对于锰硅和硅铁后市，李啸尘认为，从时间节点来看，目前锰硅和硅铁都面临钢厂月度招标，价格上涨 更有利于行业长期发展。历史上每一次硅铁或者锰硅价格的单独上涨时，另一个品种都会出现同方向的 跟随，从而使二者之间的价差不至于太大。目前锰硅和硅铁的基本面都面临供应过剩的扰动，主要是供 应端都有新增产能等待投放。 "在成本支撑及供需博弈下，短期锰硅、硅铁价格仍将延续区间震荡格局。需求端，国内粗钢 ...

Core Viewpoint - A fire at Eramet Grande Côte's Wet Concentration Plant has led to a production shutdown and the declaration of force majeure, impacting operations significantly and suspending production guidance for 2026 [1][3][9]. Group 1: Incident Details - The fire occurred on February 22, 2026, and was contained by the same evening, with no reported casualties [9]. - The fire was confined to the first stage of the Wet Concentration Plant, while the second stage and the Mineral Separation Plant were unaffected [2][3]. - The shutdown of the Wet Concentration Plant will result in a prolonged suspension of operations across the entire site, with no restart date currently determined [3][9]. Group 2: Impact on Production and Operations - The company had previously projected production of over 900 kt of Heavy Mineral Concentrate (HMC) for 2026, but this guidance has now been suspended due to the incident [5][9]. - Investigations are ongoing to determine the cause of the fire and assess the condition of the affected facilities, with updates to be provided as more information becomes available [3][10]. Group 3: Communication and Community Engagement - Eramet Grande Côte has notified affected customers and suppliers about the activation of force majeure provisions under relevant contracts [4][9]. - The company emphasizes the safety of employees and surrounding communities, implementing mechanisms for ongoing engagement and information updates with local stakeholders [8].

Indonesia is the world’s largest nickel producer, accounting for around 65% of global output. In 2025, production is estimated to have increased by 13.9% to 2.6 million tonnes (mt), driven by higher mine output from the Weda Bay, Gag Island, Huafei, Pakal Island, Pomalaa, PT Halmahera Persada Lygend, and Tapunopaka mines. Collectively, these operations reinforce Indonesia’s role as the primary source of incremental global nickel supply. Weda Bay is expected to record higher nickel production in 2025–2026 ...

2026 年 2 月 25 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 137,950 | 2,760 | 3,430 | 8,300 | -8,800 | 20,870 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 14,085 | 225 | 350 | 665 | -330 | 1,705 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 133,057 | -246,471 | -284,048 | -675,083 | -1,605,076 | 14,336 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 126,039 | -97,844 | -76,204 | -498,762 | -546,545 | - ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：国投期货 South32 South32在2025年四季度锰矿产量为136.3万吨，同比增加21.26%，环比下降2.99%。澳洲矿山2026财年 产量计划仍然为320万吨。南非矿山生产目标维持200万吨。 Eramet-Comilog Comilog四季度产量为168万吨，同比抬升35.81%，环比下降10.35%。由于铁路运输仍存问题，锰矿运 输量较难抬升高水平。 整体来看，Comilog较难上调发运目标，我国锰矿累库水平相对一般，锰矿价格较难大幅下行。 表1：两大矿山产销数据（万吨） 澳大利亚产区在2026财年上半年可销售产量增至166万吨，得益于热带气旋"梅根"影响后复产计划的顺 利执行，该运营单元实现了规划产量。2026财年产量指引维持在320万吨不变，具体取决于雨季可能带 来的影响。随着新码头基础设施投入使用，2026财年上半年销量增至181万吨，发运能力已达满负荷状 态，从而实现了计划中的库存消耗。 南非产区在2026财年上半年可销售产量同比减少2%（2.5万吨）至106万吨，主要反映了Wessels矿山的 计划性维护及深部 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The speculation sentiment in Shanghai nickel still exists, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [1] - The cost support center of stainless steel has moved up, but inventory accumulation in the off - season restricts its elasticity [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 135,190, down 4,420 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,860, down 110 from T - 1 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 379,528, down 54,310 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 223,883, up 3,871 from T - 1 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel was 135,500, down 5,250 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,052, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - The price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 65, unchanged from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 31,950, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026 and start levying royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [2] - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiahs for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in consultation [3] - Indonesia has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets (RKAB), and the approved nickel ore production quota is between 2.6 and 2.7 billion tons [3][4] - A Swiss investment group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3] - Philippine miners say the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [4] - A landslide occurred in a tailings area of the IMIP park in Indonesia, causing one death and suspending operations in the affected area [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [6]

Core Viewpoint - A fire occurred at the Eramet Grande Côte extraction plant in Senegal on February 22, 2026, during scheduled maintenance, but no casualties were reported, and the situation was contained quickly [2][4][5]. Group 1: Incident Details - The fire broke out at approximately 3:00 p.m. and was controlled by 8:00 p.m. [2] - The facility was evacuated and secured immediately following the incident [2]. - Investigations are ongoing to determine the cause of the fire and its impact on operations [5][6]. Group 2: Response and Safety Measures - Eramet Grande Côte's internal emergency response teams acted promptly, coordinating with local firefighters to manage the situation [4]. - The safety of employees, contractors, and surrounding communities is the top priority for the Eramet Group [5]. Group 3: Operational Impact - Initial findings suggest that the fire was contained upstream of the Wet Concentration Plant, and the spiral concentrators used for mineral sands separation were not affected [5]. - Further updates will be provided as more information becomes available [6]. Group 4: Company Overview - Eramet focuses on transforming mineral resources to support sustainable industrial growth and energy transition [7]. - The company is involved in the recovery and development of essential metals like manganese, nickel, mineral sands, and lithium [7][8].

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：海外扰动增强，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：跟随宏观波动 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 8 | | 锡：节前控制持仓 | 9 | | 铝：小幅下跌 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：受美股拖累下行 | 12 | | 钯：贵金属板块又见疲态，走势撤步 | 12 | | 镍：印尼与菲律宾消息博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 13 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 ...