2025 年 8 月经济数据前瞻 8 月经济：股市涨能否带动实体反弹？ 2025 年 08 月 26 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525070001 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 在经济经历了 7 月的放缓后，8 月股市的高涨能否通过预期的改善向实体经 济传导？我们认为最直接的映射是服务业 PMI 和服务业生产指数的反弹，经济 下行的压力也将有所缓解。然而，随着"两新"政策拉动效应渐小，外部需求放 缓与"反内卷"政策的影响延续，经济结构性分化依然明显。8 月股市的"升温" 若要打破经济的"降温"，仍要等待再通胀的进一步信号。 ➢ 8 月资本市场的"盛夏"热度，将对服务业指标形成有效拉动。从统计构成 上来看，服务业 PMI、服务业生产指数均锚定《国民经济行业分类》的服务业行 业门类增加值进行核算，其中金融业占有较高权重（详情可参考我们此前的报告 《两个服务业景气指标为何大幅背离？》）。历史趋势表明，上证指数与服务业 PMI、服务业生产指数常常"同频共振"， ...

钢矿周报 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日 淡季不利因素影响缓解叠加供给承压且库存压力有限，钢矿期价或 震荡偏强 长安研究——钢矿周报 观点： 钢材：尽管 7 月我国投资、消费、工业、地产等宏观经 济指标均有承压，尤其是与钢材终端需求相关的地产投资同比 降幅仍在扩大，狭义基建和制造业投资同比增速也显著回落， 但"七下八上"主汛期已过，多地高温、暴雨等不利天气影响 因素或有所缓解，钢材终端现实需求尤其是建材需求端有望边 际改善，叠加雅江水电厂等一批大型"两重"项目开工以及"两 新"政策持续加力扩围的政策落地效果逐步显现，钢材终端需 求或韧性凸显，再加上 9.3 阅兵前一周华北地区钢厂或存明显 限产压力，钢材供给或边际承压，钢材期价或震荡偏强。 操作方面，建议钢材生产企业和库存水平较高的贸易商 可逐步加快销售节奏；而库存水平较低的贸易商和下游及终 端采购企业可待价格震荡回调时适当加快采购节奏，或择机 在期货盘面建立阶段性买保头寸。建议投资者以逢低偏多短 差操作为主，套利者可尝试做多螺矿比，均需注意止盈止损。 铁矿：工信部将发布新一轮钢铁行业稳增长工作方案， 中钢协会议也提出要严格落实粗钢产量调控工作有关部 ...

国务院常务会议再次部署扩大内需有关举措。 [ 发展体育产业和体育消费是落实扩大内需战略的重要内容。近年来，体育产业成为经济发展新亮点， 为国民经济增长和地方经济转型增添了新的动力。以"苏超"为例，单场上座超6万人，带动江苏全域多 场景消费380亿元，有力地促进了消费。 ] 据新华社消息，国务院总理李强8月22日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品 以旧换新政策情况汇报，研究释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发展的意见。 会议明确，要进一步强化财税金融等政策对"两新"的支持，创新消费投资场景，优化消费投资环境，综 合施策释放内需潜力。并对发展体育产业和体育消费作出部署。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对第一财经分析，下一步，为更好发挥"两新"政策对扩大内需的推动作 用，可有两个主要抓手：一是要加快超长期特别国债的发行使用，提高资金使用效率，使其促消费、扩 投资效应充分释放，缓解经济波动；二是要视实际情况需要，特别是根据下半年外需波动情况，将适度 增发超长期特别国债纳入政策储备，上调"两新"政策支持资金规模。 "两新"政策成效明显 国常会指出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消 ...

作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 2025.08. 24 本文字数：2709，阅读时长大约4分钟 国务院常务会议再次部署扩大内需有关举措。 据新华社消息，国务院总理李强8月22日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取实施大规模设备更新和消费 品以旧换新政策情况汇报，研究释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发展的意见。 会议明确，要进一步强化财税金融等政策对"两新"的支持，创新消费投资场景，优化消费投资环 境，综合施策释放内需潜力。并对发展体育产业和体育消费作出部署。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对第一财经分析，下一步，为更好发挥"两新"政策对扩大内需的推动 作用，可有两个主要抓手：一是要加快超长期特别国债的发行使用，提高资金使用效率，使其促消 费、扩投资效应充分释放，缓解经济波动；二是要视实际情况需要，特别是根据下半年外需波动情 况，将适度增发超长期特别国债纳入政策储备，上调"两新"政策支持资金规模。 "两新"政策成效明显 国常会指出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取 得明显成效。 国家发改委发布的数据显示，截至2025年7月16日，全国共有2.8亿人次申领消费品以旧换新补贴， ...

按计划，今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债资金将于10月下达，继续支持地方实施消费品以旧换新政 策。 国务院常务会议再次部署扩大内需有关举措。 据新华社消息，国务院总理李强8月22日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品 以旧换新政策情况汇报，研究释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发展的意见。 会议明确，要进一步强化财税金融等政策对"两新"的支持，创新消费投资场景，优化消费投资环境，综 合施策释放内需潜力。并对发展体育产业和体育消费作出部署。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对第一财经分析，下一步，为更好发挥"两新"政策对扩大内需的推动作 用，可有两个主要抓手：一是要加快超长期特别国债的发行使用，提高资金使用效率，使其促消费、扩 投资效应充分释放，缓解经济波动；二是要视实际情况需要，特别是根据下半年外需波动情况，将适度 增发超长期特别国债纳入政策储备，上调"两新"政策支持资金规模。 "两新"政策成效明显 国常会指出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取得 明显成效。 国家发改委发布的数据显示，截至2025年7月16日，全国共有2.8亿人次申领消费品以旧换 ...

今年以来，"两新"政策加力扩围。兴业银行天津分行积极融入"新旧动能转换"浪潮，以创新金融产品与 精准服务，为居民消费升级、企业技术升级及区域绿色转型提供全方位支持，交出了一份服务实体、惠 及民生的亮眼答卷。 消费场景赋能 焕发消费活力 在科技金融赛道上，兴业银行始终保持敏锐行动力，厚植创新沃土，助力科技企业拔节生长。 针对科技型企业"轻资产、重技术"的特点，兴业银行天津分行推出专属创新产品，以知识产权质押、研 发投入补贴贴现等方式，降低企业融资门槛。通过"金融+场景"服务模式，助力企业加速技术转化，推 动先进制造、新能源等领域的产业链升级。 兴业银行天津分行以科技金融为突破口，为某算力项目提供定制化融资支持。通过深度参与项目规划， 兴业银行支持项目采用节能设计、智能能源调度及高效算力负载技术，并协助项目接入园区能源协同系 统，实现绿电替代与碳排放动态监测。项目投产后，不仅为区域数字经济提供算力支撑，更通过绿色技 术应用为后续绿色基础设施建设积累实践经验。 金融保驾护航 助力低碳转型 在"双碳"战略背景下，兴业银行天津分行率先落地天津市首笔网约车可持续发展贷款，支持企业采购新 能源汽车。通过该产品，兴业银行天津 ...

Group 1 - The provincial audit office has launched a large-scale audit investigation to track the implementation of the equipment update and consumer goods trade-in policy, aiming to enhance market vitality [1] - The audit focuses on four key areas: the organization of the "two new" policy measures, management of large-scale equipment update projects, implementation of consumer goods trade-in actions, and the allocation and management of "two new" funds [1] - The investigation will assess the scientific nature of policy measures, completion of target tasks, effectiveness of policy implementation, and the efficiency of supporting measures [1] Group 2 - The audit will examine the authenticity of application materials, the standardization of project reviews, and the consistency between project construction and approvals for equipment updates [1] - It will also evaluate the convenience of subsidy procedures, timeliness of subsidy fund disbursement, and authenticity of subsidy recipients in the consumer goods trade-in policy, particularly in 11 sectors including automobiles and home appliances [1] - The audit will focus on the rationality of fund allocation methods, timeliness of fund disbursement, and compliance in the use of funds related to the ultra-long-term special national debt, promoting the role of fiscal funds in stimulating consumption and expanding domestic demand [1]

Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in the previous month and below the expected 5.8%[4] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decline from 4.8% in June and below the forecast of 4.9%[4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.8%[4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, up from 5.0% in June[4] Industrial and Investment Trends - The manufacturing sector's investment saw a significant decline, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of -0.3% in July, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous value[23] - Infrastructure investment also turned negative, with a monthly year-on-year decline of -5.1% in July, significantly lower than the previous month's performance[27] - The real estate development investment fell sharply, with a monthly year-on-year decrease exceeding four percentage points compared to the previous month[31] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The service retail sector showed resilience, with strong growth in categories like home appliances and cultural products, despite overall retail sales weakening[18] - The consumer confidence and spending power remain low, necessitating further policy measures to stimulate consumption[14] - Seasonal factors contributed to a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with the influx of new graduates into the job market exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch[33]

Core Insights - The city has effectively utilized the "Two New" working group to promote four major actions: equipment updates, trade-in programs, recycling, and standard upgrades, resulting in significant achievements in the first half of the year [1][2] Group 1: Economic Performance - The value added of regulated equipment manufacturing and digital product manufacturing industries increased by 10.5% and 14.3% year-on-year, respectively, while the automotive manufacturing industry saw a 17.3% increase [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.3% year-on-year, driven by the trade-in programs that released consumer potential [1] Group 2: Policy and Project Development - The city has developed a comprehensive policy framework and project reserve, implementing 11 specialized work plans to support the "Two New" initiatives [1] - The city has established a task list for the "Two Heavy" and "Two New" initiatives, clarifying key tasks and support standards [1] Group 3: Recycling and Standards - As of now, the city has applied for a total of 566 million yuan in funding for trade-in programs, which has driven sales of related subsidized products exceeding 4.3 billion yuan [2] - The city has recycled 55,000 scrapped vehicles, 150,000 household appliances, and 36,000 electric bicycles [2] - The "Two New" standards have led to the formulation of 8 national standards and 4 local standards [2] Group 4: Future Plans - The city plans to enhance coordination and improve the awareness and satisfaction of policies among enterprises, ensuring smooth implementation of trade-in funding [2] - The development department will collaborate with relevant industry authorities to focus on key support areas, planning high-quality projects in advance [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrates resilience and vitality despite facing challenges from external pressures and extreme weather conditions, maintaining a steady development trend [1][6]. Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial output continued to grow, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors growing by 9.3% and 8.4% respectively [2]. - The total import and export volume in July increased by 6.7% year-on-year, reflecting a 1.5 percentage point acceleration compared to the previous month [2]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with goods retail sales increasing by 4% [2]. Consumer Trends - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted consumer behavior, with retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year growing by 5.0%, surpassing the previous year's growth by 1.3 percentage points [3]. - The demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment services has increased, contributing to sustained growth in both goods and service consumption [2][3]. Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, supported by policies promoting large-scale equipment updates [3]. - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2%, indicating robust investment activity despite some regional challenges [3]. Policy Outlook - The government is expected to implement new policies to address economic challenges, including expanding government investment and improving social security measures to boost consumer demand [6][7]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools is anticipated to support infrastructure investment growth, addressing capital shortages for project construction [8]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal spending growth slowed in the second quarter, with public fiscal expenditure increasing by only 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a need for enhanced fiscal expansion to meet economic growth targets [9]. - Recommendations include accelerating the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds to ensure effective investment and support economic stability [9].