本报记者 张芗逸 从资金下达情况来看，国家发展改革委9月30日发布消息称，近日，国家发展改革委已会同财政部，向地方下达了今年第 四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金，至此，全年3000亿元中央资金已全部下达。 根据近期公布的2025年第四季度国债发行有关安排，第四季度有两只超长期特别国债续发，分别于10月10日和10月14日进 行招标。 《证券日报》记者梳理，截至10月9日，今年我国已累计发行超长期特别国债12300亿元。上述两只超长期特别国债成功发 行后，今年预算安排的1.3万亿元超长期特别国债将全部发行完毕。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，今年超长期特别国债整体发行节奏较去年明显加快。由此可见，政 策意图在于快发、稳发，既确保资金尽早落地形成实物工作量，又保持市场预期稳定，财政政策的逆周期调节力度进一步加 强。 根据预算安排，1.3万亿元超长期特别国债中，有8000亿元用于更大力度支持"两重"项目建设，5000亿元用于加力扩围实 施"两新"政策。 "超长期特别国债的发行进一步拉动投资，扩大了消费需求。"陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司高级投资顾问朱华雷对《证 券日报》记者表示， ...

智通财经APP获悉，乘联分会秘书长崔东树于《2025年8月乘用车区域市场流向分析》中称，2025年新能源车表现相对较强，尤其纯电动和插电两者表 现均是较好的态势。目前，传统燃油车在中西部和北方需求仍然比较大，燃油车占比达到60%左右，而在东部的平原地区，尤其是南方地区，整体的 新能源车占比到50%以上的水平。8月的北方地区新能源增长较快，也是插混占比提升明显的地方，体现新能源的拉动。目前来看，海南地区和广西地 区，新能源车的占比已经达到了60%左右的水平，呈现相对较强增长的态势。像四川还有江浙等地区也达到50%左右的燃油车比例，新能源车也呈现 纯电动大幅提升的较好比例。 崔东树提到，随着经济内需和出口多元化发展改变了区域车市的结构。在国家"两新"政策促进乘用车内需消费的良好环境下，2025年全国乘用车市场 零售同比增长9%，呈现2-8月国内车市强势增长的良好特征。 1."北强南弱"特征明显。从过去几年各地车市的发展状态来看，"北强南弱"格局持续，虽然北方车市2025年8月较上年同期的份额下降0.2个百分点，但 2025年较2022年的份额增长5.7个百分点。东北地区车市这几年在不断地走强之中，从2023年到2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving structure of the regional automotive market in China, highlighting the "strong North, weak South" trend, driven by government policies and changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of electric vehicles and economic recovery in certain regions [2][5]. Regional Market Trends Analysis - The automotive market in China is characterized by a persistent "strong North, weak South" pattern, with the Northern market showing a 5.7% increase in market share from 2022 to 2025, despite a slight decline of 0.2% in August 2025 compared to the previous year [5]. - The Northeast region has shown consistent growth, maintaining a high market share of 6.8% in August 2025, while Southern regions like East China and South China have experienced significant declines [2][5]. - The Central region's market has improved, with a 1.5% increase in market share in August 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery trend [5]. Policy Impact on Regional Structure - Government subsidy policies have significantly influenced the market, particularly benefiting low-end and economic vehicles, with A00 and A0 class electric vehicles performing well in Northern regions [2][5]. - The article notes that the policy's fairness is evident as it encourages the development of small and micro electric vehicles, which is crucial for widespread adoption [2][5]. Market Structure Changes - The demand for SUVs is notably strong in the Central and Western regions, attributed to the geographical terrain, while the Eastern regions show a preference for electric vehicles, particularly in flat areas [7][8]. - The overall structure of the automotive market is shifting, with a notable increase in the share of electric vehicles, especially in regions like Hainan and Guangxi, where the penetration rate has reached around 60% [8][9]. New Energy Market Structure Analysis - The new energy vehicle market is performing well, with significant growth in both pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, particularly in Northern regions where traditional fuel vehicles still dominate [8][9]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Eastern regions exceeds 50%, while the demand for traditional fuel vehicles remains high in the Central and Western regions, where they account for approximately 60% of the market [8][9].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 9月制造业PMI实际上比较能代表目前经济的特征：（1）随着政策性金融工具等广义财政手段加快，经济在7-8月承压后，9月出现边际改善，PMI环比上 行0.4个点；（2）49.8的读数意味着绝对景气度依然有待提高；（3）中观层面分化明显，15个细分制造业中景气扩张的行业个数为8个、收缩区间的为7个。在 前期报告《9月PMI的七个信号》中，我们已经侧重于宏观角度做了分析；本篇则进一步基于中观角度做出拆解。 第二， 9 月为何出现景气改善？我们理解背后有四条宏观线索：一是前期"两重"项目集中落地，对秋旺期间的企业生产有一定带动，环比景气改善的行业中生产 指标改善均较为明显；二是国内长假期驱动备货和消费，农副食品景气环比大幅上行 6.4 个点； 9 月前 27 天全国乘用车市场零售较上月同期增长 12%[1] ；三 是" AI+ "政策[2] 叠加手机新品上市[3] 、 DeepSeek 发布新模型[4] 带动，计算机通信电子行业景气环比连续 2 个月改善；四是出口继续展现韧性， 9 月新出 口订单环比上行 0.6 ...

为迎接"银十"销售旺季，汽车市场刚刚迎来一波密集的新车投放，从新能源到燃油、从经济型到豪华级，几乎是 全品类。 在山东济南的一家比亚迪（002594）4S店内，刚上市的新车第二代秦PLUS被放在展厅中央区域。10月4日傍晚， 不时有前来看车咨询、洽谈购车的消费者。当晚8时左右，虽早已过了平日的下班时间，门店内依然灯火通明，仍 有顾客在看车，与销售人员详细沟通续航、智能化配置、价格等细节，并时不时与其他品牌的新车进行直观对 比。 商场内汽车品牌门店内同样人气高涨。华为门店内，享界S9、问界M9等新车依次排开，吸引不同需求的顾客：有 家长带着孩子坐进车内，感受座舱的空间与舒适度；也有年轻消费者专注于屏幕，沉浸式体验车辆智能化功能。 享界S9T等新车被摆在门店显眼位置。新京报贝壳财经记者 张冰 摄 在济南一家蔚来门店，9月20日上市的全新ES8和购车权益、新车置换政策被放在了入口正对的显眼位置。"根据 具体车型、车况和实际评估情况，奔驰、宝马、奥迪车型可零成本置换蔚来。"一位工作人员称，以一辆使用3年 的宝马3系或奔驰C级为例，旧车残值大概与新ET5T售价差不多，相当于可零成本换蔚来新ET5T，且用车成本更 低。" ...

今年，扩大内需是我国政策发力重点。当前，第三批消费品以旧换新政策资金下达，接力发挥政策效 能，促进居民消费需求的释放，带动相关商品销售较快增长。8月份，限额以上单位商品零售额中，家 用电器和音像器材类、家具类、文化办公用品类商品零售额继续保持两位数增长。我国在2024年实施新 一轮"两新"政策和2025年加力扩围实施"两新"政策以来，有效激发了国内消费潜力和投资动能，有力推 动了供给和需求的良性循环，带动产业升级和绿色发展。 政策实施效果显著 扩大内需功效显著。政策实施以来，全国汽车、家电等重点品类消费呈现爆发式增长。家电、通信器 材、家具商品等销售额多次实现20%以上的月度同比增幅；新能源乘用车国内市场渗透率连续多个月超 过50%。2024年以来，消费品以旧换新政策整体撬动相关产品消费超2万亿元。设备更新拉动相关领域 投资强劲增长。2025年以来，超长期特别国债支持的设备更新项目约8400个，带动总投资超1万亿元。 深化供给侧结构性改革纵深推进。政策着力提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平，鼓励制造业企业加大技 术改造投入，推动新能源汽车、高端装备等产业加速发展。金融机构为数字化、智能化、高端化、绿色 化技术改造 ...

| 汽车行业运营 | | 产量-万台 | 单车收入 | 单车成本 | 单车利润 | 单车税费 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | - 万元 | -万元 | - 万元 | - 万元 | | 2017年 | 年度 | 2981.3 | 29.4 | 24.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | | 2018年 | 年度 | 2829.7 | 29.5 | 24.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | | 2019年 | 年度 | 2580.4 | 31.3 | 26.4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | | 2020年 | 累计 | 2490.4 | 32.7 | 27.7 | 2.0 | 3.0 | | 2021年 | 累计 | 2653.5 | 32.7 | 27.9 | 2.0 | 2.8 | | 2022年 | 累计 | 2604.2 | 35.7 | 30.7 | 2.0 | 3.0 | | 2023年 | 累计 | 3011 384 | 33.5 35.7 | 29.1 31.2 | 1.7 1.5 | 2.7 3.0 | | 2024年 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of private enterprises in Hunan Province's economy, emphasizing the support provided by Postal Savings Bank to address financing challenges and promote growth [1][2]. Group 1: Private Enterprises in Hunan - As of the end of 2024, there are 7.35 million private enterprises in Hunan, which are crucial for employment, market prosperity, and improving livelihoods [1]. - The Postal Savings Bank of Hunan has a loan balance of nearly 87 billion yuan for the private economy, serving approximately 130,000 private enterprises [1]. Group 2: Financial Support and Innovation - A specific intelligent technology company received over 70 million yuan in funding from Postal Savings Bank, enabling it to focus on research and development and scale up operations [2]. - The bank provided a 10 million yuan "Science and Technology Credit Loan" and additional credit of 60 million yuan to help a company expand production amid increasing orders [3]. - The bank's customized financial services are designed to assist enterprises in understanding and utilizing government policies and subsidies effectively [3][4]. Group 3: Case Studies of Beneficiary Companies - A high-tech optical company in Changde has invested 3% of its sales revenue in R&D and achieved an order volume of 160 million yuan in the first quarter of the year [4]. - The bank has developed innovative evaluation systems focusing on R&D capabilities and patent numbers to address funding challenges for tech enterprises [4]. - A new materials company in Shaoyang, recognized as a "little giant" enterprise, received 1.6 million yuan in loans to support its initial operations and has since expanded its credit to 16 million yuan [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bank aims to continue supporting private enterprises, enhancing their growth and development through financial services, and contributing to the overall economic vitality of Hunan Province [6].

Economic Overview - The "924" policy has shown resilience in the Chinese economy amidst complex domestic and international environments, with macroeconomic policies stabilizing growth and prices[4] - The need to reassess the 5.0% growth target based on economic momentum and to prioritize employment in policy adjustments is emphasized[5] Consumption and Retail - Social retail sales grew by 4.6% year-on-year as of August 2025, a 1.2 percentage point increase from August 2024, aligning with the 5.0% economic growth target[6] - Specific retail categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with increases of 28.4% and 22.3% respectively compared to the previous year[6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year as of August 2025, a decline of 2.9 percentage points from August 2024, primarily due to a 12.9% drop in real estate investment[9] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments also saw declines of 2.5 and 4 percentage points respectively, indicating limited effectiveness of investment policies[9] Trade Performance - Total goods import and export volume increased by 2.5% year-on-year as of August 2025, with exports rising by 5.9%, a 1.2 percentage point increase from the previous year[10] - Exports of electromechanical products grew by 9.2%, accounting for 60.2% of total exports, showcasing resilience in external trade[10] Capital Market Stability - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 39% year-on-year to 3821.83 points as of September 23, 2025, while the ChiNext Index surged by 103%[12] - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 1.877%, reflecting a stable capital market environment[12] Employment and Structural Challenges - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.18% from January to August 2025, a slight increase from the previous year, indicating challenges in job creation[17] - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 rose to 16.43%, highlighting the need for targeted employment strategies[17] Policy Recommendations - Future policies should shift focus from "scale stimulus" to "employment priority" to achieve high-quality economic development[22] - Fiscal policies must prioritize job creation, with proposals for special funds to support new employment initiatives and tax incentives for businesses hiring new employees[27][28]

今年以来，面对复杂严峻的内外部环境，我国宏观调控展现出高超的艺术性与精准性。其中，以发行超 长期特别国债为支撑，加力扩围实施的"两新"政策，成为稳定经济大盘、激发内需活力的关键一招。通 过构建高效的"财政+金融"协同机制，成功撬动了社会资本，优化了资源配置，为经济高质量发展注入 了强劲而持久的动能。 当前，我国经济正处于固本培元、转型升级的关键阶段。下一阶段，必须继续坚持问题导向和目标导 向，持续深化"财政+金融"的协同模式，将"两新"政策的效能推向新的高度。 从投资端看，财政贴息撬动信贷，设备更新激活有效投资。1月至8月，设备工器具购置投资同比增长 14.4%，拉动整体投资增长2.1个百分点。"两新"政策以财政资金为"支点"，通过贴息、补贴降低企业融 资成本，并引导金融机构设立专项再贷款，为银行提供风险缓释与收益保障，显著提升放贷意愿。 展望未来，随着第四批消费品以旧换新资金的落地，以及更多创新性金融工具的推出，政策效能有望进 一步接力释放。可以预见，在财金协同的持续驱动下，我国内需市场的巨大潜力将被更充分地激发，产 业升级的步伐将更加坚实，经济发展的内生动力与韧性将持续增强。 为强化协同，政策推出个人消费 ...