南华豆一产业风险管理日报 2025/10/10 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 豆一11合约价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3850-4000 | 9.92% | 22.5% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 豆一风险策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 种植主体，秋季收获新豆售粮 需求较大，但阶段性卖压较大 | 多 | 借助期价反弹，适当 锁定种植利润，做空 | A2511 | 空 | 30% | 4000-4050（持有） | | | 使价格承压 | | 豆一期货 | | | | | | 库存管理 | 集中上市，卖方议价权减弱 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权，提高 | A2511-C ...

南华镍&不锈钢产业风险管理日报 2025/10/9 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 6.62% | 0.1% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 跌，库存有减值 | 根据库存水平做空不锈钢期货来锁定利润，对冲 现货下跌风险 | SS主力合约 | 卖出 | 60 ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 宏观预期和产业逻辑的矛盾；远月有政策预期和成本抬升预期，暂无法证伪；近端现实一般，需要观察旺季下中游的去 库能力 【利多解读】 成本仍保留抬升预期，影响远月定价；政策预期尚无法完全排除，供应端或需求侧故事或被反复交易 【利空解读】 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1400 | 32.42% | 83.6% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1500 | 22.39% | 25.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed a weak intraday oscillation. After the expected interest rate cut, the overall market was sluggish, and there were no significant changes in the fundamentals. There were concerns about the supply of nickel ore, while the new energy sector provided support. The stainless - steel market had limited actual transactions, and the overall market momentum was calm. The Fed's interest rate cut did not exceed expectations, leading to a weak overall market [4]. 3. Key Points by Category Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.80% and a historical percentile of 1.7% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [4]. Core Contradictions - **Market Trends**: Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures oscillated weakly intraday. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the overall market was weak, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply - side Factors**: Indonesia issued the second - phase benchmark price for nickel ore, and there were concerns about supply due to government interventions and upcoming quota approvals. The new energy sector provided support, and cobalt price increases drove up the prices of MHP and nickel salts [4]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Nickel - iron quotes were firm, but high - price transactions declined. Stainless - steel spot sales tried to stimulate transactions by reducing prices, but actual transactions were limited [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel - ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - mining areas by the Indonesian forestry working group [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High pure - nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs, the implementation of anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea, and weak stainless - steel spot transactions [6]. Market Data - **Nickel Market** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract was 120,940 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M was 15,335 US dollars/ton. Some contracts showed price declines [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory was 41,055 tons (up 1,125 tons), LME nickel inventory was 228,450 tons (down 18 tons), nickel - pig - iron inventory was 28,652 tons (down 614.5 tons) [7]. - **Stainless - Steel Market** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract was 12,875 yuan/ton, and some contracts showed price declines [6]. - **Inventory**: Stainless - steel social inventory was 897.2 tons (down 5.4 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 5,119 tons (a 5.37% decline) [6][7]. Industry News - Ningde Times and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel - integrated smelter [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The domestic soybean market is transitioning from a stage of expected supply loosening to a reality, exerting downward pressure on prices [3]. - Mid - and downstream players are waiting for the large - scale listing of new - season grains, with low acquisition enthusiasm and light current spot trading [3]. - The soybean No. 1 futures maintain a bearish trend under the suppression of supply loosening expectations [3]. - The future import rhythm will affect the demand for domestic soybeans due to the high uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Reducing or suspending the one - way auctions of Sinograin this week is beneficial for alleviating pressure on the spot market, and specific auction arrangements should be monitored [3]. - The consumer market is gradually recovering in September, with an expected rebound in edible demand [3]. - The new - season harvest and listing of domestic soybeans are causing significant pressure on prices, and the passive attitude of the procurement end may lead to price declines [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bean One Risk Strategy - For inventory management of planting subjects with high new - bean sales demand in autumn and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean No. 1 futures with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits [2]. - When there is a large - scale listing and weakening bargaining power of sellers, it is recommended to sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option with a 30% hedging ratio at 40 - 50 (holding) to increase the grain selling price [2]. - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices and aiming to reduce procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on forward procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605, waiting for price guidance in autumn [2]. Bean One Futures Price - On September 16, 2025, compared with September 15, the closing prices of all listed soybean No. 1 futures contracts declined, with the decline ranging from 0.25% to 0.38% [4].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0012647), Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Risk Strategies Inventory Management for Planting Entities - Behavior: Harvest new soybeans in autumn with high selling demand but large short - term selling pressure [2] - Strategy: Take advantage of futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures [2] - Hedging Tool: A2511 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Short [2] - Hedging Ratio: 30% [2] - Suggested Entry Range: 4000 - 4050 [2] Inventory and Procurement Management For Sellers - Behavior: With soybeans in concentrated listing, sellers' bargaining power weakens [2] - Strategy: Sell call options to increase the selling price [2] - Hedging Tool: A2511 - C - 4050 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Sell [2] - Hedging Ratio: 30% [2] - Suggested Entry Range: 40 - 50 [2] For Buyers - Behavior: Concerned about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs [2] - Strategy: Wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on forward procurement management [2] - Hedging Tool: A2603, A2605 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Long [2] - Suggested Entry Range: Wait for autumn price guidance [2] Group 3: Core Contradictions - The soybean market is waiting for new - season guidance. Mid - and downstream entities are highly cautious. Auctions are ongoing, and trade - end purchases are cautious. With the new season not fully arrived, the actual market pressure has limited increase, and prices are stable but slightly weak [2] - The rebound of soybean No. 1 futures lacks capital and fundamental support. The market volume shrank and closed lower yesterday. With capital outflows, the futures market is waiting for clearer fundamental guidance. Given the increasing likelihood of a bumper harvest, prices are expected to decline [2] - The consumption recovery represented by the double - festival stocking will face the pressure of new - season listings, and prices will be under pressure [2] Group 4: Bullish Factors - The remaining grain at the grass - roots level is almost exhausted, and traders have generally cleared their inventories. Without concentrated selling pressure, the current price decline is limited [2] - The concentrated consumption scenarios in September are gradually recovering, and there is an expectation of a recovery in edible demand [2] Group 5: Bearish Factors - On September 9, China Grain Reserves Corporation organized a one - way competitive auction of 37,112 tons of domestic soybeans, with only 1,000 tons sold, a significant drop in the transaction rate compared to the full - transaction two - way auction on the 8th, highlighting weak demand and high selling difficulty [3] - The expectation of improved quality and increased yield of new - season soybeans remains unchanged. Without extreme weather, the short - term supply surplus will be the main driving factor of the fundamentals, and prices will continue to be under pressure [3] - Attention should be paid to whether there will be two auctions this week. In the context of the upcoming new - season listing, the impact of auctions may be magnified emotionally [3] Group 6: Futures Price Changes | Contract | September 8, 2025 | September 9, 2025 | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 3977 | 3968 | - 9 | - 0.23% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 3976 | 3969 | - 7 | - 0.18% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 3976 | 3970 | - 6 | - 0.15% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 4020 | 4014 | - 6 | - 0.15% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 4023 | 4016 | - 7 | - 0.17% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 4067 | 4067 | 0 | 0.00% | [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by industrial enterprises in risk management amid increasing volatility in the global commodity market and rising geopolitical risks [1] - Huatai Futures has upgraded its Huatai Tianji intelligent hedging system, marking a significant advancement in digital service capabilities within China's futures industry [1][4] Group 1: System Upgrade and Features - The Huatai Tianji system has undergone a comprehensive strategic upgrade, focusing on three core directions: intelligence, visualization, and professionalism [1][4] - The new digital module will fully digitize eight key processes of hedging, including data forecasting, exposure analysis, feasibility analysis, market trend assessment, hedging strategy design, cost estimation, and compliance risk control [2] - The system integrates quantitative models and scenario factors to predict spot price trends and calculate exposure gains and losses, aiding enterprises in monitoring exposure changes and adjusting hedging strategies in a timely manner [2] Group 2: Visualization and Data Integration - The Huatai Tianji industry intelligence research module has received a significant visualization upgrade, incorporating over 5,000 industry data indicators for multi-dimensional data integration [3] - The system provides dynamic charts and interactive graphics to present research logic, offering clients a structured investment research framework and strategic insights [3] - The Huatai China Futures Trading Index (CFTI) serves as a benchmark for the Chinese commodity market, providing a new perspective beyond traditional long and short position rankings [3] Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Future Plans - Huatai Futures aims to break traditional service bottlenecks by providing standardized tools and personalized customization, covering the entire process from risk awareness to system improvement [4] - The company is actively building a new industry ecosystem, collaborating with institutions like Tsinghua University and Southwest University of Finance and Economics to promote technological iteration [4] - Future plans include expanding coverage to foreign exchange, new energy, and carbon emissions, deepening AI applications, and developing predictive risk control models [5] Group 4: Strategic Vision and Market Impact - Huatai Futures envisions transforming user risk management from a "cost center" to a "strategic engine," supporting profit growth for enterprises [5] - The company emphasizes collaboration to build a national-level commodity risk database, marking a shift from traditional competition to a cooperative win-win model in the futures industry [5] - The upgrade of Huatai Tianji represents not only a technological iteration but also an innovative model for serving the real economy, showcasing the potential of fintech [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The core contradictions include the normalization of auctions, with low - price auction grains impacting the supply and price system in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is a lack of short - term bullish support factors, and the expected mid - term demand improvement is less than the pressure from the new season's listing. The concentration of short positions in the November contract has increased, showing a clear bearish attitude [3]. - Bullish factors are that the bottom - level remaining grain is almost exhausted, and the inventory clearance of traders is relatively small, which restricts the price decline. Also, the gradually recovering concentrated consumption scenarios are expected to boost the edible consumption demand [5]. - Bearish factors are the expected improvement in the quality and yield of new - season soybeans, which will lead to a concentrated supply increase and put continuous pressure on prices. Low - price auction grains are impacting the price system of old - season commercial grains, and the normalization of auctions continuously supplements market supply. Additionally, when the futures price rebounds, long - side positions are reduced, and some short - side seats continue to increase short positions [5]. 2. Price Data - From August 28 to August 29, 2025, the closing prices of most soybean contracts increased, with the November contract rising from 3927 to 3945 (up 18, or 0.46%), the January contract rising from 3931 to 3948 (up 17, or 0.43%), the March contract rising from 3937 to 3950 (up 13, or 0.33%), the May contract rising from 3980 to 3995 (up 15, or 0.38%), and the July contract rising from 3984 to 3999 (up 15, or 0.38%). The September contract decreased from 4092 to 4080 (down 12, or - 0.29%) [4]. 3. Risk Strategies - **Inventory Management for Long Positions** - For planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure and price suppression, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean futures (contract A2511), with a short - side position ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 4000 - 4050 [2]. - When there is a large - scale listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price, with a selling ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 50 - 60 [2]. - **Procurement Management for Short Positions** - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, since the probability of price decline is relatively large, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider contracts A2603 and A2605, with a long - side position, and wait for the autumn price guidance [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 27, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The market has basically digested the production restriction expectations for the military parade in North China. The pressure of steel over-seasonal inventory accumulation suppresses steel mill profits and the rebound space of steel prices, which in turn restricts the further upward movement of the cost side. The market shows a certain "desensitization" to positive factors and is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Price Forecast - Rebar 01 contract monthly price range: 3000 - 3300, current volatility: 15.97%, volatility percentile: 41.1% - Hot rolled coil 01 contract monthly price range: 3200 - 3500, current volatility: 15.81%, volatility percentile: 35.28% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished product inventory and concerns about steel price decline, short rebar or hot rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Sell call options to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if steel prices rise - RB2501: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3200 - 3250 - HC2501: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3350 - 3400 - RB2510C3300: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 20 - 30 [2] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and hopes to purchase according to orders, buy rebar or hot rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs in advance. Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if steel prices fall - RB2601: buy, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3100 - 3150 - HC2601: buy, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3250 - 3300 - RB2510P3000: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 20 - 30 [2] Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Export orders have slightly improved, military parade production restrictions, and coal mine supply events [5] Negative Factors - Steel shows over-seasonal inventory accumulation, raw material fundamentals weaken, and there is a large amount of warehouse receipts on the rebar 10 contract [5] Price Data Futures Closing Prices - Rebar 01 contract: 3172 on August 27, down 13 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week - Rebar 05 contract: 3214 on August 27, down 9 from the previous day and 31 from the previous week - Rebar 10 contract: 3111 on August 27, down 2 from the previous day and 21 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 01 contract: 3341 on August 27, down 16 from the previous day and 44 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 05 contract: 3348 on August 27, down 13 from the previous day and 34 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 10 contract: 3349 on August 27, down 18 from the previous day and 53 from the previous week [6] Spot Prices - Rebar aggregate price in China: 3337 on August 27, down 8 from the previous day and 1 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Shanghai: 3290 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Beijing: 3230 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Hangzhou: 3310 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Tianjin: 3260 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Shanghai: 3380 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Lecong: 3380 on August 27, down 20 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Shenyang: 3340 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [6] Other Data - Hot rolled coil overseas FOB and CFR prices, showing changes from August 20 to August 27 [7] - Rebar and hot rolled coil basis, monthly spread, volume-to-rebar spread, rebar-iron ore ratio, and rebar-coke ratio data, showing daily and weekly changes [8][9][12] - Seasonal data on basis, monthly spread, and profit for various steel products and raw materials, as well as cost and inventory data [13][20][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract closed at 805.5 (-5.5), with a reduction of over 2,500 lots. The 09 contract is unlikely to see intense trading due to continuous position - reduction. [3] - Fundamentally, the situation is strengthening marginally. Spot prices have been rising, daily outbound volume remains high, inventory is decreasing and at a low level over the years. The supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. [3] - Considering the buyer's willingness and the seller's warehouse receipt cost, the current price valuation range is 800 - 840 yuan. When the price is below 800 yuan, buying on the futures market is better than direct import; when it is above 840 yuan, there will be profits from making warehouse receipts. [3] - In terms of trading, when funds enter, the upward possibility is greater than the downward one. The strategy is to mainly go long on dips and supplement with high - selling. The 09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage should exit. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 800 - 840 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4%. [2] Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 820 - 840 yuan to lock in profits and cover production costs. [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 790 - 800 yuan to lock in procurement costs in advance. [2] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 805.5 (-5.5), with a reduction of over 2,500 lots. The 09 contract is unlikely to have intense trading. [3] - Fundamentally, the situation is strengthening marginally. Spot prices are rising, daily outbound volume is high, inventory is decreasing and at a low level. The supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. [3] - The price valuation range is 800 - 840 yuan. The current futures price is in a reasonable range. The strategy is to mainly go long on dips and supplement with high - selling. The 09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage should exit. [3] 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities is warming up; and there is an impact from funds. [6] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season is not prosperous; the shipping volume from foreign suppliers continues to rise. [6] Spot and Basis - Provides spot price, price change, and basis data for different specifications of logs at different ports on August 20, 2025, including 3.9 large (3.8A) at Rizhao Port, 4 large (3.8A) at Taicang Port, etc. [4][9] Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 m³ but a year - on - year increase of 35.3%. [7] - **Inventory**: As of August 15, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.06 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. [7] - **Demand**: As of August 15, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 63,300 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 900 m³ but a year - on - year increase of 28.9%. [7] - **Profit**: The import profit of radiation pine and spruce on August 15, 2025, was - 87 yuan/m³ and - 81 yuan/m³ respectively. [7] - **Foreign Market Quotation**: The CFR on August 15, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, with no change week - on - week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. [7]