Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline of 0.24% amid complex external conditions and concerns over upcoming remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference [1] - The geopolitical situation remains tense, with reports of large-scale airstrikes by Russian forces on Ukraine and renewed military actions in the Middle East [1][2] Company Performance - Chinese gold stocks, such as China Gold International (02099) and Chow Sang Sang (00116), saw significant gains, with increases of nearly 5% and over 7% respectively [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is considering extending trading hours, with plans for a 24-hour trading mechanism by 2026, although this may not be favorable for all investors [2] Digital Currency Developments - China is reportedly considering allowing the use of RMB-backed stablecoins, which could significantly enhance the internationalization of the RMB [3] - Related stocks in the stablecoin sector, such as ZhongAn Online (06060) and Guotai Junan International (01788), experienced notable increases [3] Health Sector Insights - The Chinese government has issued guidelines to promote ear and hearing health, which has positively impacted healthcare stocks like Dingdang Health (09886) and Ping An Good Doctor (01833) [3] Transportation and Logistics - China Railway Group announced a significant tender for high-speed trains, exceeding market expectations, which is likely to benefit companies like CRRC (01766) and Times Electric (03898) [3] - The shipping sector is poised for growth, particularly with the increase in trade with ASEAN countries, benefiting companies such as China Ocean Shipping (00598) and Sea Group (01308) [6] Individual Stock Highlights - Sea Group (01308) reported a revenue of approximately $1.6645 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with a profit growth of 79.5% [7] - The company is expanding its fleet with new container ships to meet growing operational demands, which is expected to enhance its market position [8] - The demand for smaller container ships remains strong due to limited supply and economic growth in Southeast Asia [8]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to 3766.21 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index gained 0.17% to 25165.94 points, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 0.01%[1] - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 285.29 billion HKD[1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's minutes indicated that most officials view inflation as a greater risk than a weak labor market[8] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% due to moderate economic activity and increased uncertainty[13] Chinese Currency Developments - Reports suggest that the Chinese government is considering a significant shift in its stance on digital assets, potentially allowing the launch of a Renminbi stablecoin[8][13] - The plan to expand the internationalization of the Renminbi may include a roadmap for stablecoin development, with discussions expected to take place by the end of August[13] Corporate Earnings Highlights - Baidu's Q2 revenue fell by 4% to 32.7 billion CNY (approximately 4.6 billion USD), marking its largest decline since 2022[15] - China State Construction International reported a 5.1% increase in interim profit to 5.26 billion CNY, with a revenue of 56.64 billion CNY[15]

作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 2025.07. 28 本文字数：2927，阅读时长大约5分钟 面对复杂严峻的内外部环境，我国上半年经济增长5.3%，超出全年增长目标。下半年经济趋势和扩 内需方向仍备受关注。 对于下半年宏观政策建议，CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌在报告 发布会上提到了四点： 首先是财政方面，下半年应充分运用公共预算的调入资金及使用结转结余，并考虑额外发行2.3万亿 元政府债券，力争广义财政支出达到全年预算增长目标。 "按照目前计划，6月～12月还能发行7.6万亿元，低于去年同期债务发行规模。"上述报告提到，进入 下半年以后，政府发债规模下降，如果下半年广义财政收入难有大的增长，财政的可用财力受限，对 下半年GDP增长支持力度下降，对新增社融也会形成拖累。 其次，考虑到以旧换新政策会随着时间拉长而政策效力递减，加之当前环境下企业设备更新改造需求 下降，需要谋求新的发力点来扩大内需。"相较而言，城市更新改造是为数不多的现实迫切需要且能 从总体规模上改变宏观局面的发力点，可以此为突破口，扩大政府主导的公共投资。"张斌说。 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）最新发布的宏观政策季度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the need for further counter-cyclical policies to achieve the annual economic growth target in China, given the pressures from tariffs, real estate, and limited fiscal capacity. It emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and its impact on the RMB exchange rate [1][2][4]. Economic Growth and Domestic Demand - China's GDP for the first half of the year was approximately 66.05 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The report indicates that fiscal measures, such as bond issuance and spending, have effectively supported economic growth in the first half of the year [2] - It suggests that the economic momentum weakened in the second quarter compared to the first, necessitating stronger counter-cyclical policies to address increasing demand pressures [2][3] Fiscal Policy Recommendations - The report recommends utilizing public budget funds and considering the issuance of an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to meet the annual budget growth target [2][3] - It notes that the government plans to issue 7.6 trillion yuan in bonds from June to December, which is lower than the previous year's issuance [2] Domestic Demand Expansion Strategies - The report identifies urban renewal and transformation as a critical area for expanding domestic demand, suggesting it as a viable point for government-led public investment [3] - It advocates for lowering policy interest rates to guide market rates downwards, thereby improving inflation expectations and balancing private sector savings and investments [3] - The report emphasizes the need for simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides to revitalize the real estate market [3] RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The report discusses the undervaluation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate, which has depreciated over 15% since early 2022, despite improvements in export competitiveness [4][5] - It highlights that the nominal effective exchange rate's depreciation and the decline in domestic price levels relative to trade partners contributed significantly to this depreciation [5] - The report stresses that the comparison of expected returns on RMB assets versus foreign assets is crucial for determining the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [5][6] RMB Stablecoin Development - The report outlines structural changes in the RMB exchange rate, including a shift in expectations and a changing interest rate environment, which may support RMB internationalization [7] - It discusses various options for advancing RMB stablecoin trials, emphasizing the need for onshore stablecoins due to limited application scenarios for offshore stablecoins [8][9] - The report suggests leveraging China's manufacturing and industrial chain advantages to expand offline applications for stablecoins [8]

Core Insights - Conflux Tree Graph Technology and Ecological Development Conference was held in Shanghai from July 18 to 20, where Conflux Tree Graph Public Chain 3.0 was announced [1] - The official launch of Conflux Tree Graph Public Chain 3.0 is scheduled for August this year [1] - Strategic partnerships were established with AnchorX and Dongxin Peace (002017) to promote offshore RMB stablecoin issuance, cross-border settlement, and RWA applications in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1]

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for China's economy in the second half of 2025, with a focus on stabilizing consumption and investment while navigating external uncertainties [2][5][11]. Economic Performance - Nearly 60% of respondents believe the economic performance in the first half of the year was stable and moderate, with GDP growth at 5.3% year-on-year [3][11]. - Over 61% of respondents rated the monetary policy in the second quarter as "loose" or "very loose," reflecting a positive assessment of the policy measures taken [3]. Consumption and Investment Outlook - The majority of respondents (53.4%) expect consumption to remain stable in the second half, but 43.3% warn of potential declines in consumption momentum [6]. - 43.3% of respondents are optimistic about private investment confidence stabilizing in the third quarter, an increase of 18.7 percentage points from the previous survey [7]. Real Estate Market - 55% of respondents believe the real estate market in first-tier cities is nearing a stabilization point, while over half (51.7%) expect a slight decline in overall sales heat in the third quarter [7]. Stock and Currency Markets - A significant majority (81.7%) of respondents rated the stock market's outlook for the third quarter positively, reflecting a growing confidence in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8]. - Over 75% of respondents anticipate the RMB/USD exchange rate will remain between 7.0 and 7.2, with expectations of slight capital inflows [9]. Policy Recommendations - Respondents suggest enhancing the "old-for-new" consumption policy and expanding its scope to include service consumption, with 65% advocating for increased funding [10][11]. - There is a strong call (80.1%) for the development of a stable digital RMB, indicating a perceived urgency in establishing a recognized stablecoin market [12].

Core Viewpoint - The majority of respondents believe that the Chinese stock and foreign exchange markets will continue to show resilience in the third quarter, despite complex external and internal economic conditions [1][8]. Economic Growth Outlook - Over 80% of respondents expect the GDP growth rate for the second quarter to be no less than 5%, with 48.3% predicting a range of 5.0% to 5.2% [3][17]. - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is viewed as stable, with 58.3% of economists indicating a moderate growth [3][17]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - More than 60% of respondents rated the monetary policy in the second quarter as "loose" or "very loose," reflecting a positive evaluation of the measures taken [3][16]. - The fiscal policy received mixed reviews, with 43.3% considering it "moderate" and 35% believing it was insufficient [3][16]. Stock Market Performance - A significant 91.7% of respondents rated the stock market performance in the second quarter positively, indicating a growing consensus on the revaluation of Chinese assets [4][8]. - For the third quarter, 81.7% of respondents expressed a neutral to optimistic outlook on stock market conditions, a notable increase of 29.1 percentage points from the previous survey [8][22]. Consumer and Investment Sentiment - The consumer market is expected to remain stable, with 53.4% of respondents anticipating steady consumption, although 43.3% warned of potential declines in consumer momentum [5][18]. - In terms of investment, 43.3% of respondents expect private investment confidence to stabilize, marking an 18.7 percentage point increase from the last survey [7][18]. Real Estate Market Insights - 55% of respondents believe that the real estate market in first-tier cities is nearing a stabilization point, while over half expect a slight decline in sales heat in the third quarter [7][20]. - The overall sentiment towards the real estate market reflects concerns about cooling sales, with 51.7% predicting a small drop in sales activity [7][20]. Foreign Exchange and Capital Flow - Over 75% of respondents expect the RMB to USD exchange rate to remain between 7.0 and 7.2 in the third quarter, indicating a stable outlook for the currency [10][21]. - More than 45% of respondents anticipate a slight inflow of cross-border capital, reflecting a positive shift in sentiment regarding capital movement [10][22]. Trade and Economic Policy Recommendations - Respondents suggest enhancing policies to stimulate consumption, including expanding the "old-for-new" subsidy program and including service consumption in government subsidies [11][12]. - The urgency to develop a stable digital currency is highlighted, with 80.1% of respondents rating the need for a recognized RMB stablecoin as high [13].

Group 1 - Over 80% of respondents believe that the economic growth rate in the second quarter will not be lower than 5%, with 48.3% expecting a growth rate between 5.0% and 5.2% [1] - Respondents anticipate that consumer sentiment will stabilize in the second half of the year due to policy support, while the real estate market sales may decline [1] - The stock and foreign exchange markets are expected to maintain resilience in the third quarter [1] Group 2 - The impact of the China-US trade negotiations on the Chinese economy is considered manageable by the respondents [1] - Recommendations include further strengthening and expanding the implementation of the consumption upgrade policy, such as increasing total quotas and including service consumption in subsidy ranges [1] - There is a general consensus among respondents on the urgency of developing a stable digital currency for the renminbi [1]

Group 1: Economic Growth Outlook - Over 80% of respondents believe that the GDP growth rate in Q2 will not be lower than 5%, with 48.3% expecting it to be between 5.0% and 5.2% [1][2] - The survey indicates that 60.1% of respondents foresee challenges to economic growth in the second half of the year [4] - The "Securities Times Economic Expectation Heat Index" for Q3 has increased by 5.22 percentage points but remains below the neutral line, indicating cautious optimism [4] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - More than 60% of respondents view the monetary policy as "loose" or "very loose," reflecting a positive assessment of recent monetary measures [2] - 40% of respondents believe there is a need for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year [8] Group 3: Consumer and Investment Trends - 53.4% of respondents expect consumer conditions to remain stable, while 43.3% express concerns about potential declines in consumer momentum [4][5] - 43.3% of respondents anticipate that private investment confidence will stabilize in Q3, showing an 18.7 percentage point increase from the previous survey [5] Group 4: Real Estate Market Insights - 55% of respondents believe that the real estate market in first-tier cities is nearing a stabilization point, while 36.7% think it has not yet reached that point [5] - Over half of the respondents (51.7%) expect a slight decline in overall real estate sales heat in Q3, indicating concerns about a cooling market [5] Group 5: Stock and Currency Market Performance - 81.7% of respondents rated the stock market's performance in Q3 positively, reflecting a significant increase in optimism [3][6] - 75% of respondents expect the RMB to remain within the 7.0 to 7.2 range against the USD for most of Q3, indicating stability in the currency market [7] Group 6: Trade and Economic Policy Recommendations - 70% of respondents believe that the impact of US-China trade negotiations on China's economy will be manageable, despite concerns about export growth [8] - 65% of respondents suggest increasing the total quota for the "old-for-new" consumption policy to stimulate domestic demand [9]

Group 1 - The uncertainty of US tariff policies and expectations of economic slowdown have heightened market panic and increased volatility in international financial markets since 2025 [1] - The share of non-US dollar currencies, such as the Renminbi and Euro, in sovereign reserves is continuously rising, and their use in trade settlements is becoming more widespread [1] - Experts at the Summer Davos Forum indicated that the world is undergoing a "de-dollarization" process, but it is still far from challenging the dollar's dominance [1] Group 2 - The absolute dominance of the US dollar has weakened, but it remains the leading currency; challenges from non-dollar sovereign currencies are still premature [2] - Current US tariff and immigration policies may have long-term impacts, increasing trade costs and reducing consumption, investment, and merger intentions [2] - Stablecoins are gaining significant attention in the global financial community, with the US potentially using stablecoin development to reinforce the dollar's international status [2]