● 本报记者 魏昭宇 11月28日，由中国证券报主办，华鑫证券、西岸集团联合承办，深圳数据经济研究院提供独家学术支持 的"2025量化行业高质量发展大会暨金融科技·量化机构金牛奖颁奖典礼"成功举办。雷菱投资合伙人刘 晓俊在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，中国ETF市场规模在短短几年内实现了突破5万亿元的跨越， 增长势头迅猛。不过，对比海外市场，中国ETF市场仍有巨大的发展空间。 刘晓俊表示，看好中国股市的长期前景，建议采取"核心-卫星"资产配置策略：部分配置于稳健的ETF套 利策略作为防御，部分通过ETF轮动等策略参与股市长期成长，以耐心持有应对市场波动，实现财富持 续增值。 刘晓俊进一步表示："在此预知风险的基础上，我们嵌入相应的风控机制，构成策略的核心框架。后续 的优化，如引入AI处理数据或适应政策变化，都是在这一稳健框架下的细节完善。这种'先立框架，后 补细节'的模式，确保了策略在面对市场周期与突发事件时具备更强的适应性与韧性。" 看好中国股市 谈及对未来的市场研判，刘晓俊表示，自己对中国股市长期前景持乐观态度。"当前中国房地产市场进 入稳定发展阶段，股市作为居民财富'蓄水池'的重要性日益凸显。在政策的引 ...

王庆指出，随着政策持续发力与企业基本面改善，中国股市正从前期"价值重估"阶段逐步转向"业绩驱 动"的下半场，有望迎来一轮结构性慢牛行情。 王庆回顾了去年此时提出的"否极泰来，价值重估"观点，并指出一年来市场逻辑已发生积极变化。他认 为，当前理解中国经济与资本市场的关键出发点，在于认识到房地产周期调整所带来的深刻影响。在这 一背景下，全社会范围内出现"资产荒"，推动资金向股市等资产配置。 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂，共寻穿越 周期的投资真谛。重阳投资董事长兼首席经济学家王庆以"从价格重估到业绩驱动"为题发表演讲，系统 阐述了对当前中国资本市场发展趋势的判断。 "去年'924'以来的一系列政策组合，在内容、形式和实施方案上，与国际上应对类似情形的成功经验有 异曲同工之妙。"王庆表示，这些政策包括宽松的货币政策、积极的财政政策以及结构性改革，特别是 中央政府协助地方政府化解债务的政策，有效疏通了经济循环的堵点，为市场注入了信心。 对于市场前景，王庆持乐观态度。他认为，在资产荒背景下，股票市场相较于其他资产类别的收益率优 势进一步凸显。下一步，投资机会将更 ...

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Security - The defense industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand and external potential, focusing on information technology, intelligent equipment, and emerging fields like military trade and deep space economy [2] - The machinery sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment and technological empowerment, with a focus on robotics and autonomous driving, alongside a push for core technology breakthroughs [2] - The electric power and new energy sectors are witnessing a new growth cycle, with lithium battery storage demand surging and the photovoltaic market stabilizing [2] - The home appliance industry is focusing on policy subsidies, technological transformation, and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing rapid technological advancements in smart driving and hybrid technologies, with a focus on export opportunities and collaboration with tech companies [2] Group 2: Real Estate and Banking - The real estate market is stabilizing, with key cities expected to see price stabilization driven by household balance sheet recovery and supportive policies [3] - The banking sector is entering a new profit cycle, with stable interest margins supporting long-term profitability, and a focus on undervalued shares and quality city commercial banks [4] Group 3: Securities and Insurance - The securities industry is benefiting from wealth management trends, with a focus on stable earnings and international expansion as a long-term narrative [5] - The insurance sector is characterized by high elasticity, with investment-driven profit growth and a focus on regulatory compliance and risk management [6] Group 4: Construction and Chemicals - The construction industry is expected to stabilize with government debt management and new infrastructure projects, focusing on regional coordination and green development [10] - The chemical sector is entering a recovery phase, with a focus on high-quality enterprises and strategic investments in various chains [10][12] Group 5: Utilities and Environmental Protection - The utilities sector is seeing steady growth in electricity demand, with a focus on high-dividend investments in water and coal power [13] - The environmental protection sector is benefiting from policy adjustments and technological advancements, with a focus on improving profitability in water and waste management [16] Group 6: Capital Markets and Financial Innovation - The capital market is exploring new paths for empowering inclusive finance, focusing on small and micro-enterprise support and rural revitalization [21] - The green certificate market is expected to grow significantly, driven by policy support and increasing demand for renewable energy [22] Group 7: E-commerce and Retail - The retail sector is experiencing structural changes driven by AI, with a focus on rational competition and the globalization of Chinese brands [23] Group 8: Bonds and Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is expected to see continued growth, driven by demand for fixed income and equity market expectations [25] - The quantitative investment sector is gaining traction, with a focus on unique strategies and the development of fixed income products [27]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant transformation in the supply structure of the primary market for offshore bonds, with a notable shift from traditional city investment bonds to industry bonds, government bonds, and TMT bonds as the new mainstays [3][10] - The offshore bond market has seen a continuous expansion, with a total issuance of 1.24 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, although net financing from city investment bonds has sharply declined to only 422 million yuan [3][10] - The secondary market has experienced a decline in yields, with the 3-year offshore bond yield dropping approximately 40 basis points, outperforming domestic bonds [3][17] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the offshore bond market will continue to thrive in 2026, driven by two major changes: narrowing interest rate spreads and a shift in supply dynamics, necessitating more refined selection criteria for bonds [3][4] - The narrowing of the offshore-onshore interest rate spread has reached historical lows, with sovereign bonds at 10-25 basis points and credit bonds at 40-65 basis points, making it challenging to find excess returns [3][4] - The report emphasizes the need to explore investment opportunities in foreign government bonds and Hong Kong government bonds due to limited yield spread in domestic government bonds [3][48] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for Chinese dollar bonds, with expectations of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, targeting a rate of 2.75-3.00% [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on investment-grade dollar bonds and short-term securities to capture certainty in returns, as the credit risk has eased but remains present [5][6] - The investment strategy for 2026 includes a focus on high-grade offshore bonds, with an emphasis on long-duration bonds for insurance companies and high-grade foreign financial bonds for public funds [5][6] Group 4 - The report outlines the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" program, which has significantly enhanced market liquidity and investor participation [29][33] - The trading volume of RMB debt instruments has reached 2.13 trillion yuan by October 2025, accounting for over 90% of the total volume in 2024, indicating a robust market activity [29][33] - The report notes that the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" has opened new channels for domestic investors to diversify their asset allocation [29][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period presents four significant opportunities for China's capital market, including policy dividends from deepened reforms, new momentum from economic transformation, improved institutional foundations, and value reassessment to invigorate market vitality [1][2][3] Group 2 - The first opportunity is the comprehensive deepening of reforms that will release policy dividends, with structural issues needing resolution through high-level opening and reform, which is expected to return economic growth to a reasonable range [2][3] - The second opportunity involves economic transformation that will foster new momentum, with emerging industries and the upgrading of traditional industries expected to create a market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [2][3] Group 3 - The third opportunity is the improvement of capital market systems, emphasizing "investor first" principles and promoting coordinated reforms in investment and financing, which will solidify the foundation for healthy market development [3][4] - The fourth opportunity is the value reassessment that will stimulate market vitality, driven by domestic economic transformation, diversification of resident assets, and global asset rebalancing [3][4] Group 4 - Wealth management institutions are expected to play a larger role in asset allocation, particularly in a low-interest and high-volatility environment, with a focus on four key areas for equity asset allocation over the next five years [4] - Gold is highlighted as having continued allocation value, with its share in private investment potentially increasing from just over 2% to 4-5% due to ongoing economic uncertainties [4] Group 5 - The future investment opportunities arising from transformation and upgrading will require enhanced asset allocation capabilities from wealth management institutions to navigate through economic cycles [4][5]

Core Insights - The event "Investment Banking Journey" held by Industrial Bank in Kunming focused on capital market discussions, bringing together government representatives, entrepreneurs, and individual wealth clients [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Achievements - Industrial Bank's Kunming branch has implemented a "commercial bank + investment bank" strategy over the past 20 years, successfully launching innovative products such as "two new" bonds in Yunnan and technology innovation bonds using a "parent-child" model [2] - The bank's investment banking department, led by General Manager Hu Bin, highlighted its ability to provide comprehensive financial services supported by diverse licensing resources and professional research institutions [2] Group 2: Key Themes and Expert Insights - Lu Zhengwei, Chief Economist and Chairman of the Academic Review Committee of Industrial Bank, presented on "Strengthening Financial Support for Innovation," offering deep macroeconomic analysis and forward-looking policy insights [2] - Wang Qing, Chairman of Shanghai Chongyang Investment Management Co., analyzed current opportunities for value reassessment in China's capital markets, providing strategic insights [2] - Experts from the investment banking department shared professional insights on exploring merger and acquisition pathways and comprehensive financial service solutions for capital markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has experienced a significant downturn, erasing all gains made in 2023, while the Shenzhen real estate market has also seen a substantial decline, reverting to levels not seen since 2016 [1][5]. Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has fallen below $94,000 in November, resulting in the liquidation of over 150,000 traders globally within a 24-hour period [1]. Group 2: Shenzhen Real Estate Market - The Shenzhen real estate market has erased all gains from the past decade, with prices returning to levels seen in early 2016 [5]. - In 2015, the average price of new homes in Shenzhen reached 33,426 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, with transaction volumes and values significantly higher than in subsequent years [3]. - By 2025, some neighborhoods have seen price declines of 50% to 60% compared to peak levels [5]. - The overall housing price in Shenzhen has reverted to levels from February to March 2016, effectively negating the price increases from 2015 [5]. Group 3: Regional Performance in Shenzhen - Nanshan District has shown the strongest resilience, maintaining prices at mid-2018 levels [6]. - Longhua District has seen prices drop back to levels from March to May 2016 [7]. - Bao'an District's prices are stable, reflecting levels from 2017 to 2018 [8]. - Longgang District has been the most affected, with prices returning to levels from July to September 2015, although certain core areas show resilience [10]. - Luohu District's prices have fallen to levels seen in July 2015 [12]. Group 4: Market Characteristics - Three notable characteristics of the Shenzhen market include: 1. Areas supported by industry and education show the strongest price resilience [14]. 2. The quality of the property and its age are significant factors influencing prices [14]. 3. A profound value reassessment is occurring, widening the wealth gap between early and new homebuyers [14]. Group 5: Market Trends - The market is stabilizing, with many sellers adopting a wait-and-see approach [15]. - In November, 50.6% of second-hand listings in Shenzhen saw price declines, while 25.9% experienced price increases [16].

Group 1 - The board has approved a preliminary proposal to issue RMB shares for listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with the funds aimed at developing the main business and supplementing general working capital, reinforcing the company's absolute leading position in the industry [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 4.048, 4.182, and 4.288 billion HKD, corresponding to EPS of 0.66, 0.68, and 0.70 HKD [1] - The total share capital is 6.143 billion shares, with a proposed issuance of no more than 800 million shares, accounting for 11.52% of the post-issue share capital, and an overallotment option of up to 15% of the proposed issuance [1] Group 2 - The company received 2.064 billion RMB in national subsidies from July 1 to August 31, 2025, exceeding expectations and significantly improving operating cash flow [2] - The company’s DPS for the first half of 2025 is 0.15 HKD, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.76%, up from 35% in the first half of 2024 [2] - The improvement in free cash flow and the initiation of the A-share listing are optimistic signals for accelerating value reassessment in the future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to list on the A-share market to expand its business and optimize its capital structure, with significant cash flow improvement expected starting in 2024 due to accelerated subsidy recovery and cost reduction measures [1][2]. Group 1: A-Share Listing and Fundraising - The company intends to issue up to 800 million shares, representing no more than 11.52% of the post-issue share capital, and list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The raised funds will be used for business development and general working capital [1]. Group 2: Cash Flow Improvement - The company is projected to achieve a free cash flow of approximately 4 billion yuan in 2024, marking its first positive cash flow since 2003. By the first half of 2025, operational and financial income is expected to account for 87% of main revenue, a 10 percentage point increase year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Cost Reduction and Profitability - The environmental energy segment is expected to contribute 2.567 billion HKD (+12%) to group profit in the first half of 2025, driven by cost reduction measures and improved core operational metrics. The water segment is projected to contribute 409 million HKD (-4%), while the green environmental segment is expected to see a significant profit increase of 30% [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts of 3.337 billion, 3.564 billion, and 3.831 billion HKD for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, 7%, and 7% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 9.1x, 8.5x, and 7.9x, with a maintained "buy" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is positioned as a high-potential investment sector, driven by national security needs, military trade exports, and technological innovation through military-civilian integration, highlighting its long-term investment value as the country transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The military industry is experiencing a positive trend characterized by "economic recovery, value reassessment, and event-driven catalysts" [4] - The defense and military sector's revenue for the first three quarters showed a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, reversing a decline of 0.57% in the first half of the year [4] - The 2025 national defense budget is projected at 1.78 trillion yuan, with a consistent growth rate of 7.2%, indicating a stable foundation for continued investment [4] Group 2: Military Trade and Technological Integration - Military trade exports are a key variable for value reassessment, with China's military trade export structure shifting towards high-value areas such as drones and stealth fighters [5] - The integration of military and civilian technologies is creating new growth paths, with military high-tech accelerating its transition into civilian sectors like commercial aerospace and logistics [5] Group 3: Valuation and Market Perception - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the A-share military industry is approximately 85.77, significantly higher than the overall market average of 22.59, raising concerns about overvaluation [7] - The valuation of military enterprises should consider their strategic importance, technological barriers, and profit certainty, rather than relying solely on traditional metrics [7] - The global military industry valuation logic is being restructured, with a shift from traditional manufacturing to technology-driven platforms, emphasizing long-term growth potential [8] Group 4: Investment Strategies for Ordinary Investors - The military industry presents significant complexity and information asymmetry, making direct investment challenging for ordinary investors [11] - The military leader ETF (code: 512710) offers a transparent and accessible investment tool, tracking the military leader index that focuses on leading enterprises across the military supply chain [11][13] - The military leader index includes key players from all segments of the military industry, providing a diversified investment approach that mitigates individual stock risks [12][13]