高盛闭门会-亚洲和中国经济 2026 展望，中国印度引领增 长日本，闪辉谈中国新增长和结构性转型 20260110 摘要 全球经济展望：预计 2026 年全球经济增长将高于市场一致预期，受益 于宽松的金融环境、政策不确定性降低、AI 投资以及政策宽松。新兴市 场通胀压力有望缓解，油价下跌和部分地区食品价格压力减轻是主要因 素。 美国经济与政策：预计美联储将在 2026 年上半年再降息两次。2025 年通过的税收与支出法案将在 2026 年上半年对美国经济产生积极的财 政刺激效果，支撑高于市场共识的增长预期。 亚洲经济形势：对亚洲整体经济形势持乐观态度，当前活动指标显示中 位数和平均增长表现均在 5%左右。预计 2026 年开局良好，将再次优 于市场共识预期，尤其看好中国和印度在 AI 芯片出口方面的表现。 中国经济转型：中国需寻找新的增长引擎，包括开拓美国以外的新兴市 场和摆脱对房地产行业的依赖。预计中国实际出口额将保持每年 5%至 6%的增速，经常账户盈余占 GDP 比重将升至 4.2%。 Q&A 2026 年全球经济增长的总体预期如何？ 我们对 2026 年全球经济增长持乐观态度，预计增速为 2.8%，高 ...

4.1 全球经济展望 2026 年，全球经济将在温和放缓的态势下持续发展，新兴市场将逐渐取代发达经济体，成为最为关键的增长核心。 货币政策也将从宽松转向观望，并结合数据依赖。"聚焦结构分化、把握政策窗口、管控尾部风险"是 2026 年最为重 要的应对策略。 | | | | 2026年主要经济体经济展望 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 经济体 | 经济增速频测 | 核心驱动因素 | 制约因素 | 通胀轰现/风险 | | | 从 2025 年 2.6% 放缓至 | 消费慢性延续;AI 相关私人资本开支 | 就业市场康软导致个人消费增速回落 : 高利 | 关税政策可能引发局部通胀波动;美 | | 美国 | 2026 年 1.8%-2.0% (美 | 外溢效应(2025年科技企业资本开支 | 率遗留财政压力(2024年财政净利息支出 | 联储预测 2026 年核心 PCE 通胀中值 | | | 联储预期中值 1.8%) | +12%) | 占 GDP3.06%, 创 1996年以来新高); 关 | 2.6% | | | | | 税政策传导引发通胀波动 | | | | 从20 ...

金十数据 责任编辑：郭建 金十数据 责任编辑：郭建 ...

近日，野村全球宏观研究团队发布了2026年全球经济展望研究报告。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）近日，野村全球宏观研究团队发布了2026年全球经济展望研究报 告。 "我们将这份2026年展望报告命名为《奔向增长》，因为我们对明年全球经济前景持乐观态度。2025 年，在面对政策不确定性和地缘政治扰动时，全球经济展现出了韧性，而这一强劲势头将在2026年延 续。AI引领的投资热潮以及更具支持性的货币与财政政策，为2026年的强劲表现奠定了基础。"野村全 球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主管苏博文（Rob Subbaraman）在媒体交流会上表示。 分市场来看，野村预计，美国2026年实际GDP增速为2.4%，美国劳动力供应压力的缓解以及AI主导的 商业投资加速将为经济提供支撑。野村发达市场首席经济学家David Seif表示："AI基础设施相关的投资 将保持强劲，这部分投资每年能为美国经济贡献约1%至1.5%的增长。" "我们还有一个有别于市场共识的观点：预计美国失业率将在2026年全年持续下降，最终降至4.0%。这 一失业率水平远低于美联储或市场普遍预期的数值。"David Seif补充道。他认为，美国通 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is at a critical inflection point with the Federal Reserve restarting its interest rate cut cycle[10] - Geopolitical tensions, tech rivalries, and tightening U.S. fiscal conditions are significant challenges[10] - Risk assets are experiencing increased volatility due to stretched valuations[10] China Economic Insights - China's economy is navigating through complex environments, achieving steady growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan"[10] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will further unleash China's economic potential through industrial upgrades and technological innovation[11] - Hong Kong's capital market has shown robust recovery, with the Hang Seng Index leading global performance and IPO fundraising reclaiming the top position[10] Investment Strategy - Hong Kong is positioned as a key gateway for global capital allocation into Chinese assets, enhancing its role as a "super-connector" and "super value-adder"[11] - The convergence of internal and external forces will spotlight China's strategic advantage in value investing[11] - The ongoing capital market reforms and expansion of interconnection programs will bolster Hong Kong's financial market status[11]

混沌中的规律：全球经济的非线性演化 宏观经济深度研究 在混沌中构建秩序 ——2026 年全球经济展望 " 长风破浪会有时，直挂云帆济沧海。 " 人类经济社会的每一次前行，都是在混 沌中构建秩序的历程，是在动荡的浪潮中寻找平衡的永恒努力。当旧范式的能 量逐渐衰竭，新范式的形态隐约成形。局部失序与整体重构共存，短期波动与 长期演化交织，全球经济正在脱离线性轨道，迈入一个由非线性、路径依赖与 适应性共同塑造的复杂系统。局部的细微变化不再是可忽略的短噪声，而成为 可能撬动整体格局的关键节点。历史积累的惯性也不再是趋势的线性延伸，而 是以隐性约束的方式限定未来演化的可能区间。系统对扰动的敏感性显著提 升，经济运行呈现出高度不稳定却韧性犹在的双重特征。在这种混沌式演化 中，传统经验难以提供确定答案，唯有回溯底层结构方能洞见未来方向。混沌 并不可畏，它象征着系统的开放性与潜能苏醒的活力。这既意味着高风险，也 孕育着新秩序。全球财政主导下，结构性改革、产业链重组与技术创新正在取 代旧的全球化逻辑，重新锚定增长基础。在复杂性中寻求稳定，在不确定中重 塑确定，正在成为全球经济新的演化方向。人类的任务，仍是以理性的勇气与 制度的创 ...

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic momentum faces challenges in the first half of 2026 due to US-China trade tensions, tariff pressures, and weak demand [4] - Economic recovery is expected in the second half of 2026 with monetary and fiscal policy easing, such as the US's "dual easing" and fiscal stimulus in Europe and Japan [4] - Major risks include asynchronous economic and policy cycles across countries, potentially leading to asset price volatility [4] Performance of Major Economies - The US economy relies on AI-related sectors, but short-term productivity gains from AI are limited; tariffs have raised inflation (effective tariff rate at 12.6%), suppressing consumption and investment [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2026 (to 3.25%-3.5%), with gradual improvement in the labor market as the economy rebounds [4] - Europe has inflation nearing the 2% target with neutral monetary policy, while Japan continues normalizing its monetary policy, with rates potentially rising to 1.25% by the end of 2026 [4] Asset Performance - US Treasury yields may dip in the short term but could rise again due to debt pressures; the dollar remains stable, and US stocks (S&P 500 expected to reach 7500 points) and European stocks have upside potential [4] China Economic Outlook Growth Momentum - China's GDP growth is projected at around 5% for 2025, but significant year-on-year pressure is expected in Q4; 2026 GDP is forecasted to decline to 4.5% due to reduced export contributions and slight deceleration in consumption [4] - The outlook for 2027 may improve slightly due to export recovery and narrowing declines in real estate [4] Key Sector Analysis - Real Estate: The down cycle continues with inventory-sales ratios at 25-30 months (normal is 15 months), leading to negative wealth effects from falling prices; policies should focus on lowering mortgage rates, accelerating inventory reduction, and promoting household registration reforms [4] - Consumption: 2025 H1 may see a boost from "trade-in" subsidies, but 2026 faces pressures from moderate income growth and negative wealth effects from housing prices; social security reforms are needed to enhance consumer confidence [4] - Investment: Manufacturing and infrastructure investments may have overshot in H2 2025; a slight recovery is expected in 2026, but growth will remain in low single digits [4] - Exports: 2025 exports may grow by 5.4%, but exports to the US could drop by 26%; 2026 may see a reversal in US exports while non-US market growth slows [4] Inflation and Exchange Rates - Inflation: Deflationary pressures are easing, with CPI expected to rise from 0% to 0.4% in 2026, and PPI narrowing from -2.7% to below -1% [4] - Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to be strong in the short term, with overall stability and two-way fluctuations anticipated in 2026 [4] Policy Expectations - Monetary Policy: A potential 20 basis point rate cut in 2026 (to 1.2%), with limited future space due to the need to balance bank interest margins [4] - Fiscal Policy: Broad fiscal impulse around 1 percentage point, focusing on special bonds and policy financial tools [4] - Credit: Social financing growth may decline from 8.4% to 8%, with macro leverage continuing to rise [4]

一 IMF公布《全球经济展望报告》。也就是明天晚上9点会公布，这个报告的重要性，预见性，以及风险 暗示提醒。都是站在全球经济的基础上，给出的指引。对于金融市场的影响，不容小视。 先说说IMF是啥？全称是International Monetary Fund，简称 IMF。普通话讲就是国际货币基金组织，啥 时候成立的，为啥成立？二战后成立的，成立的目的是全球战后经济复苏重建。 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ states that the current global economic outlook is stable and the market fundamentals are healthy [1] Group 1 - OPEC+ emphasizes the stability of the global economic outlook, indicating confidence in market conditions [1] - The organization highlights that the fundamentals of the market are sound, suggesting a positive environment for oil prices and production [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that OPEC+ has declared a stable global economic outlook with healthy market fundamentals [1] - Eight member countries will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [1]