周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，美元兑加元最新价报1.3858，涨幅0.03%，开盘价为1.3855。加元的持续疲 软与近期国际油价的低迷表现密切相关。作为大宗商品货币，加元走势与原油价格历来高度联动。 美元兑加元价格若突破1.3900，可能进一步上探1.3950阻力，并测试1.4000心理关口，若突破1.4015的5 月高点，则或将引发新一轮多头行情。下方支撑位在1.3855-1.3850区间，若跌破，下一步将关注1.3800 及100日均线；进一步下行则可能考验1.3750与1.3720区域。当前美元兑加元的上涨主要受美联储与加拿 大央行政策分化驱动。技术面突破关键均线后，多头趋势增强，短期目标指向1.3900-1.4000区间。 近期油价的承压下行，直接加剧了市场对加拿大这一主要产油国经济前景的担忧，特别是在全球贸易不 确定性升温的背景下，进一步推升了加元的风险溢价。尽管最新公布的加拿大零售销售数据出现改善， 为市场情绪带来短期提振，并暂时缓和了加元的跌势，但在全球经济增长放缓及贸易环境复杂多变的宏 观背景下，其积极影响预计难以持续。整体来看，加元仍面临显著的上行阻力，缺乏持续反弹的内在动 力。除非油价出现 ...

Global Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from June, marking the end of a two-month upward trend [1] - The PMI has remained below 50% for five consecutive months, indicating continued weakness in global manufacturing and a slight reduction in recovery momentum compared to June [1] Regional Manufacturing Performance - In Europe, the manufacturing PMI slightly increased to above 49%, indicating a slow recovery [2] - In the Americas, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 48%, remaining in the contraction zone for five months [2] - The ISM report highlighted that the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 48% in July, down 1 percentage point from June, with new orders slightly rising but still low [2] Economic Uncertainties - U.S. tariff policies and weak employment data have increased uncertainties regarding economic recovery [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% due to inflation pressures [3] - Rising input prices are leading U.S. manufacturers to adopt a cautious investment approach, with Citibank predicting further profit margin shrinkage due to new tariffs [3] Asian and African Manufacturing Insights - The Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5% in July, slightly down from June, but still indicating expansion [4] - The Asian Development Bank forecasts a 4.7% economic growth rate for 46 developing Asian economies in 2025, despite a slight downward revision [4] - The African manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1%, indicating a sustained recovery, with South Africa and Nigeria showing expansion [5]

Core Insights - Medtronic, a leader in medical technology, has seen its stock decline significantly from its 2021 peak, primarily due to product recalls and market conditions [2][3][5] Financial Performance - In the past year, Medtronic reported nearly $33.2 billion in revenue and $4.3 billion in net income, indicating slight growth and consistent profitability [3] - Operating cash flow has been weak, with only $127 million recorded in the latest quarter, representing less than 0.5% of revenue [3] Stock Performance and Market Comparison - Medtronic's stock has declined approximately 50% from its 2021 peak of around $140 to below $70 in late 2023, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% during the same period [2][7] - The stock has not yet returned to its pre-Crisis high, with the highest value since then being $94.50 on March 9, 2025, and currently trading at $92.94 [7] Economic and Market Challenges - Current economic challenges, including inflation pressures and uncertainties in global trade and medical reimbursement trends, may strain healthcare profit margins [5] - Historical data shows that during economic downturns, Medtronic's stock has lost more value compared to the S&P 500, raising concerns about its resilience in adverse market conditions [6][9] Growth Concerns - Medtronic's trailing P/E ratio is approximately 27, despite slowing revenue growth, which has decreased from over 5% to under 3% in the most recent quarter [8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data influencing trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown a slight rebound, closing at $3289, indicating a small bullish trend despite overall bearish sentiment [1]. - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to increased global trade uncertainties, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is critical, as weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially boosting gold prices, while strong data may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent rebound in gold prices was stronger than anticipated, suggesting limited adjustment space in the short term, with key support around $3270 and resistance near $3300 [2]. - A breakout above the $3300 level could lead to testing the 10 and 20-day moving averages around $3340, while a negative non-farm report could push prices down to the $3260-$3250 range [2]. - The suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $3300-$3305 with a stop loss at $3315 and a target of $3250 [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm employment figures, and average hourly wage data, all scheduled for release at 20:30 on August 1 [4]. - Additional data points include the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and consumer confidence index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [4].

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-25 股债跷跷板明显，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6% 降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存 整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存 款利率" 联动调控路径；7月LPR报价持稳，1年期LPR报3%，上次为3%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上次为3.5%；关 税方面，中美正加速执行伦敦框架成果 2）通胀：6月CPI同比上升0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-07-24，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了3310亿元7天的逆回购操作。（4）货 币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.635%、1.545%、1.615% 和1.536%，回购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-07-24，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.30元、105.59元、108.22元、118.25元。涨跌 幅： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The 2509 contract of Treasury bond futures is rated neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Affected by the strong stock market, the risk appetite has recovered, suppressing the bond market. The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.86, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 and a decline rate of - 0.61%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1795, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.004 and a decline rate of - 0.05%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.14%; DR007 is 1.49, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.10%; R007 is 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22% [9] 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - On July 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.76 yuan, and 119.97 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.05%, - 0.05%, and - 0.46% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.018 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, - 0.031 yuan, and - 0.044 yuan respectively [2] 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.366%, 1.477%, 1.571%, and 1.534% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [1] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread - related charts, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the relationships between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][43][44] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate [46][49] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TF main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TF main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [55][58] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the T main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the T main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [63][66] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TL main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TL main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [71][74][76]

Global Asset Price Review - The report highlights that global trade uncertainty has increased due to President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs on 14 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 70% expected to take effect on August 1, 2025. This has led to a rise in commodity assets [1][8] - In terms of market performance, the report notes that the 10Y US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.43%, while the dollar index slightly rebounded to 97.9, remaining below 100. Asian stock markets showed positive performance, with the European Stoxx 600 up by 1.15%, followed by the Hang Seng Index at 0.93% and the CSI 300 at 0.82% [1][8] - Commodity prices also saw increases, with crude oil rising by 3.09% and gold by 0.71% [1][8] Global Fund Flows - The report indicates a significant inflow of funds into developed markets, particularly in the US and Europe. US fixed income funds saw an inflow of $9.51 billion, while US equity funds attracted $4.91 billion. In contrast, Chinese equity funds experienced a slight outflow [1][15] - Sector-wise, US funds saw inflows into financials, utilities, and technology, while outflows were noted in consumer, industrials, and healthcare sectors. In China, inflows were observed in technology, finance, and materials, with outflows in consumer, communication, and healthcare sectors [1][15] Global Asset Valuation - The report states that the equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets. The CSI 300 ERP decreased by 1 percentage point to 68%, while the Shanghai Composite Index ERP fell by 2 percentage points to 60% [1][8] - The ERP for major US indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq is reported at 2%, 2%, and 3% respectively, indicating lower risk-adjusted returns compared to Chinese markets [1][8] Global Economic Data - The report notes that the global trade situation has become tense again due to Trump's tariff announcements, with tariffs on imports from the notified countries expected to range from 25% to 40%. Additionally, a 50% tariff on copper imports to the US was mentioned, although the effective date was not specified [1][8] - Key economic indicators to watch include China's June export figures, Q2 GDP growth, and the US June CPI [1][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naoki Tamura, emphasizes the need to restore the damping function of the Japanese government bond market amid high global trade uncertainties and a transformative global economy [1] Group 1 - The current global economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainties in trade [1] - There is a recognition of a "systemic transformation" occurring in the global economy [1] - The urgency to restore the functionality of the Japanese government bond market is highlighted as a critical measure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Westpac Bank expresses concerns that Australia may face prolonged low growth due to weak first-quarter GDP data and government spending cuts [1] Economic Outlook - The weak GDP data has raised market fears about Australia's economy entering a phase of long-term moderate growth [1] - Westpac's senior economist, Pat Bustamante, indicates that if the anticipated rebound in private consumption is hindered by global trade uncertainties, the domestic economic stagnation may persist for a longer duration [1] Trade and Investment Impact - Bustamante highlights that global uncertainties related to U.S. trade policies have negatively impacted market confidence, business investment, and consumer willingness to spend, exacerbating the risks to the economy [1]

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]