II CEREK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 | 2025/7/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 现值 | | | | | | | | E | | 1763 | 1343 | 2089 | 1557 | 4124 | 2101 | | Alle | 前值 | 1862 | 1369 | 2578 | 1619 | 4717 | 2030 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -5.27% | -1.92% | -18.97% | -3.83% | -12.57% | 3.50% | | 들 | | SCFIS-西北 ...

金十数据7月4日讯，知情人士称，一些欧盟汽车制造商和各国政府正推动与美国达成一项协议，以实现 关税减免，而欧盟则增加在美国的投资。欧盟必须在7月9日之前与特朗普达成一项贸易安排，否则欧盟 几乎所有输美商品的关税将跃升至50%。知情人士表示，继本周在华盛顿举行的谈判之后，欧盟成员国 周五得到了有关贸易谈判现状的通报，并被告知一项原则上的技术协议即将达成。 欧盟部分车企和政府建议用对美投资换关税减免 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧盟外交官表示，在7月9日截止日期前与美国达成的任何贸易协议中，欧盟都要求 关键行业立即获得关税减免。但即便在最乐观情况下，欧盟预计协议仍将存在一定程度的不对等。 负责协调欧盟贸易政策的欧盟委员会本周在华盛顿重点推进三大核心诉求，尽管其已接受美国10%的基 准关税作为不可回避的底线。 第三大核心诉求是，欧盟要求初始协议达成后立即实施关税减免，而非等待最终协议签署。消息人士 称，多个欧盟成员国明确表示缺乏此项条款的协议将不可接受。欧盟贸易事务主席Maros Sefcovic与欧 委会主席内阁主任Bjoern Seibert将于本周晚些时候赴华盛顿作最后冲刺。 为与全球贸易伙伴达成协议，特朗普已将加税期限暂缓至7月9日。他警告称未达成协议的国家将面临商 品关税从10%基准线最高飙升至50%的惩罚。对欧盟的惩罚性税率虽然暂定为20%，但特朗普曾威胁对 所有欧盟进口商品征收50%关税。 了解谈判内情的欧盟外交官透露，双方正致力于达成原则性协议，具体细节有待后续敲定。上周美国政 府提交的简短谈判文件中，特朗普政府仅单方面列出对欧诉求，未作出任何让步承诺。 截止期限前一周，欧盟委员会向27个成员国通报 ...

智通财经APP获悉，自周一起，英国汽车制造商可享受对美出口10%的关税税率——这一税率较唐纳德· 特朗普此前对其他国家加征的25%关税大幅下调。作为美总统与英国首相基尔·斯塔默达成的经济协议 首批落地措施，该政策正式生效。 Rolls Royce Holdings等英国航空航天企业也迎来关税减免：包括发动机、飞机零部件在内的产品关税从 10%直接降至零。然而，英国陷入困境的钢铁行业仍未看到降税曙光——尽管英国此前已宣布达成零关 税协议，但相关产品关税至今仍维持25%。 斯塔默在声明中表示："从今天起，英国世界级的汽车与航空航天产业将迎来关税大幅削减，这些关键 产业对我国经济至关重要，此举将为其发展提供保障。" 英国商业与贸易部指出，英国是唯一与特朗普政府达成此类协议的国家，并强调该协议将挽救数千个就 业岗位。根据新规，美国对英产汽车征收的10%关税将适用于每年10万辆的配额——这使得捷豹路虎等 企业相比其他国家的竞争对手更具优势，尽管优惠税率仍高于特朗普重返政坛前的水平。 值得注意的是，尽管英国是唯一免受美国对全球钢铁加征50%关税的国家，但取消25%现有税率的谈判 却困难重重，核心问题集中在所有权归属与产品 ...

研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 ＃summary＃ 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 当日行情： 中美贸易进展好于预期提振市场需求，欧线开始回归年中旺季涨价逻辑，从 电商平台报价来看，近期航司开始调涨 5 月末及 6 月运价，其中 5 月下旬报价较 前期小幅调涨，目前大柜报集中在 1500~1900 美元区间、较前期变动不大，6 月 初报价则大幅提涨，报价区间集中在 3000~3500 美元区间，提涨幅度高达 100%， 但落地成色仍需观察，短期或继续针对涨价预期博弈，关注"报价地板"马士基 后期对 6 月报价的定位，若提涨幅度不足可能打击短期情绪。 ...

韩国产业研究院全球竞争战略研究室主任金秀东表示，美国不太可能像对待英国一样，完全取消对韩国 钢铁的关税，但韩国可以利用美国在造船和LNG领域的需求，换取美国在汽车和半导体等核心领域的 关税让步。韩国政府也正在研究是否能通过类似英国的低关税配额机制，为韩国汽车争取10%的优惠关 税。 韩国的谈判难度也显而易见。与英国每年对美国出口约10万辆汽车相比，韩国2024年向美国出口的汽车 总量高达143万辆。美国总统特朗普在宣布美英协议时特别指出，英国汽车制造商并非全球巨头，这也 是美国给予英国特别待遇的原因。而韩国的大规模出口决定了其难以享受同等优惠。 同时，美国可能会要求韩国在农产品进口、数字贸易和其他非关税壁垒领域作出更多让步。专家强调， 美国希望通过保持10%的基本关税，同时削减非关税壁垒，进一步降低对韩国的贸易逆差。这也意味 着，韩国政府需要在多方面进行利益平衡，以确保最终的谈判结果符合国家利益的最大化。 尽管面临挑战，韩国政府仍希望通过灵活谈判，在确保核心产业利益的基础上争取关税减免。韩国政府 官员表示，将继续跟踪美国的谈判策略，并在新政府上台后确定最终的谈判方案。预计新一届政府将决 定是否启动正式谈判。 ...

导 语 ：美国将在90天内将关税从145%降至30%。但90天结束后会发生什么？ 巴罗卡斯（Barrocas）立即指示中国的工厂释放运往美国的货物，包括咖啡机和"Ninja Slushie"冰沙 机（一种冷饮制作机）。巴罗卡斯表示："在关税生效时，我们有数百个集装箱准备离开中国。现 在，我们终于可以把它们装上船。" SharkNinja首席执行官马克·巴罗卡斯（Mark Barrocas）在周日晚上执着地刷着新闻动态，寻找中美 两国是否会达成关税协议的任何迹象。 周一清晨，消息传来：美国将在90天内将关税从145%降至30%。 美国各地依赖中国进口的企业已经陷入困境数周，试图摸索如何应对特朗普总统（President Trump）在四月份对中国商品施加的高额关税。各家公司纷纷通过涨价、削减开支和裁员等方式努 力应对关税带来的额外成本。 如今，这场停战可能打破两国间事实上的贸易禁运。周一，美国股市大涨，美元攀升，投资者削减 了对美联储降息的押注。 许多公司表示，他们将迅速把货物装上前往美国港口的船只。 詹妮弗·伯奇（Jennifer Burch），Hightail Hair的联合创始人，从她的丈夫兼联合创始人乔 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The bottom of the bean market has emerged, and it is expected to stabilize and rebound later. The prices of domestic soybeans and soybean meal have basically stabilized after last week's decline, and the probability of an upward trend in tandem with the external soybean market is high. The prices of oils are expected to remain weak and consolidate at relatively low levels, waiting for a rebound opportunity. In the medium term, oils will maintain a range-bound pattern [3][41][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Supply Changes** - In March 2025, China's soybean imports were 3.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8%, the lowest level in the same period since 2008. From January to March, the cumulative imports were 17.109 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [4]. - The USDA's May report shows that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 175 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons from April; Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is 48.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons; the US soybean production is 118 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from April, and the global ending stocks have slightly decreased [4]. - In March, the US soybean crush was 6.2 million short tons (about 207 million bushels), significantly higher than the market - expected average of 205.5 million bushels, and reached the upper limit of the forecast range, a 9% increase from February and a 1.5% increase from the same period in 2024 [4]. - **Demand Side** - The soybean meal inventory is gradually decreasing, and the daily trading volume is average. After the seasonal peak demand, the demand for soybean meal has weakened [4]. - The price of live pigs is gradually rebounding, and the slaughter volume is increasing [4]. - **Weather Factors** - In the next two weeks, the temperature in South America will be normal [8]. - **South American Sales Situation** - The sales of old - crop South American soybeans are nearing the end, and Brazilian soybeans are basically sold out. As of April 9, 2023/24 Argentine soybean sales reached 39.8413 million tons, with a progress of 82.64% [11]. - **US Soybean Planting Progress** - As of May 12, 2025, the US soybean planting progress reached 48%, higher than the five - year average of 37%, but 6 percentage points behind the same period in 2024 [12]. - **Arrival Quantity** - Soybean imports rebounded significantly in April, and the later supply of soybean meal will be sufficient. The estimated arrival quantities from February to June are 5 million tons, 6.5 million tons, 8.35 million tons, 11.5 million tons, and 10.8 million tons respectively [16][18]. - **Soybean Crushing Volume** - After the May Day holiday, the soybean supply became more abundant, and the crushing volume continued to increase seasonally [20]. - **Domestic Supply** - The price of soybean meal has been continuously falling, the soybean meal inventory of crushing plants has slightly increased, which is normal compared with the same period last year, and the soybean port inventory is at the highest level in the same period. Attention should be paid to the downward trend of soybean inventory [26]. - **Soybean Meal Demand** - The spot basis is high, the peak demand for procurement has passed, and the demand growth rate has significantly declined [28]. - **Brazilian Soybean Price** - The Brazilian real exchange rate has fallen to a record low, new soybeans are fully on the market, and the sales enthusiasm is high, resulting in a continuous decline in prices [31]. - **Fund Position** - In May, funds reduced their net short positions in soybeans for the first time, perhaps anticipating a tariff reduction [34]. - **Domestic Soybean Price** - The soybean price in the Northeast production area has been stable with a downward trend, affected by weak demand and the decline of the Dou - 1 futures. The purchase price of low - protein raw soybeans in some areas of Heilongjiang is between 3800 - 3900 yuan/ton [36]. - **Price Spread** - The price spread between Dou - 1 and Dou - 2 continues to widen [38]. Oils - **Overall Situation** - After the mutual reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the crude oil price has gradually stabilized, but the production of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the price is expected to remain at a relatively low level. Rapeseed oil faces the risk of policy - based tariff reduction, and soybean oil is difficult to rise significantly due to sufficient supply and the off - season of consumption. In the medium term, oils will maintain a range - bound pattern [45]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil** - In April 2025, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. The production in different regions has also increased to varying degrees [45][49]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil** - In January, the production and inventory of Indonesian palm oil decreased. The price of palm oil has been rising, exports have decreased, and the inventory has changed little [50][53]. - **Biodiesel Profit** - The profit of palm and soybean biodiesel has rebounded [54]. - **Soybean Oil** - The demand for soybean oil has seasonally declined, the inventory has seasonally increased, and the demand growth rate is at a low level [60]. - **Palm Oil** - Palm oil imports have increased, the inventory has decreased, and the seasonal demand has weakened [62]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - The later arrival quantity of rapeseed oil will gradually increase. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil and rapeseed remains high. The arrival quantities from March to June are 110,000 tons, 305,000 tons, 285,000 tons, and 185,000 tons respectively [64]. - **Inventory - Rapeseed** - The rapeseed oil inventory has changed little, and the rapeseed meal inventory has continuously decreased [67]. - **Rapeseed Crushing Volume** - The rapeseed crushing volume has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed [73].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件：5 月 12 日 15：00，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，大幅降 低双边关税水平，并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点：中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期，这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性，进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性，也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现，最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%（2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税），预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点，拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点， 指向我国经济下行压力仍大，预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向， 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆，我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看，中美关税不确定性仍大，重点关注 3 大方面： 1）中美谈判进展，不排除出现关税反复的可能性；2）中美谈判议题， 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...

中美达成90天关税减免协议，美企迅速重启中企供应链，或引发新一轮航运挤压与成本上涨。 此前关税导致航运需求大幅减少。据马萨诸塞港务局CEO Richard Davey透露，关税曾使需求减少到长 荣海运公司上周通知港务局，其从中国出发的船只将由每周一次减少为每月两次。然而到周一早上，港 务局已开始接到客户希望在90天期间增加进口的请求。 合同制造商Genimex的CEO David Chitayat预测，这一临时关税减免意味着美国公司将尝试迅速发运之前 滞留在中国工厂仓库的产品。 "短期内，航运将因为所有人争抢舱位而'一团糟'，"Chitayat表示。他预计集装箱价格会上涨，但它们是 从较低点开始攀升的。" 企业争分夺秒：恢复生产、取消提价、精简产品线 知名手提包公司Bogg Bag已撤销此前的涨价决定，并恢复了今年早些时候暂停的生产。然而，Bogg计 划将秋季和假日产品线削减45个项目——几乎减半——以避免为弥补失去的时间而仓促生产。 据媒体报道，美国企业正试图利用90天窗口期在美国囤积产品，以防90天期后关税重新飙升。 据媒体，总部位于洛杉矶的健康产品制造商Therabody已重启在中国的生产线并加速生产。 ...