中国方面保持克制。官方表态一如既往，强调对话与合作，同时展现出必要的反制手段。几次关税应对精准落子，让外界看到中国市场的韧性。于是到了第 四轮谈判前夕，舆论场出现一个微妙转折——不少美媒开始自嘲：美方看似强硬，实则已经被现实拖累。 这种背景下的马德里舞台充满戏剧感。一边是美国财政部长带着国内压力上桌，一边是中国高层淡定赴会。斗牛场的观众等待激情对抗，谈判桌上的观察者 也在等谁先亮底牌。结果如何谁都不敢断言，但悬念感已经被推到高点。 第四轮谈判定在马德里，美财政部长贝森特准备出场。地点有意思，斗牛场的城市迎来经济较量，舞台感十足。美方带着压力上桌，中方则稳住阵脚。至于 结果，还要看谈判桌上的牌怎么打。 2025年9月，美国财政部对外宣布，财政部长贝森特将代表华盛顿政府前往马德里，同中方展开第四轮经贸谈判。消息一出，外界立刻把焦点投向西班牙首 都。一个以斗牛闻名的城市，突然成了中美关税大战的会场，让不少评论员忍不住调侃：斗牛场换成谈判桌，观众还是那群盯紧走向的全球市场。 三轮交锋走过，美方不断加码关税，中方接连反制，节奏像是棋局里互相加重子。前几轮里，美方动作急，中方动作稳。到第四轮之前，外部媒体已经喊 出"谁顶 ...

Group 1 - The "US-India tariff war" has escalated dramatically, with the US increasing tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50%, causing significant disruption in the Indian economy [1] - Indian exporters are facing immediate challenges, with prices skyrocketing and orders vanishing, particularly affecting the textile and seafood industries [1] - The sudden tariff increase could potentially lead to job losses for millions of workers in India, raising concerns among the Indian Exporters Association [1] Group 2 - India's Foreign Minister expressed strong discontent towards the US, highlighting the absurdity of the situation, especially given India's purchase of Russian oil to help stabilize global oil prices [2] - The tariff war is expected to have a comprehensive impact on India, with stock markets already declining and exports predicted to drop to $49.6 billion [2] - The Indian government is committed to helping businesses explore new markets in Latin America and the Middle East to mitigate the effects of the tariff increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of former President Trump's actions against the Federal Reserve, suggesting that his attempts to undermine its independence could threaten the stability of the U.S. dollar and the broader financial system [1][5][10]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Motivations - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, to lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy and reduce debt costs ahead of the midterm elections [1][4][10]. - The urgency behind Trump's actions is linked to rising inflation and unemployment in the U.S., as well as the significant national debt of $36 trillion, which incurs over $1 trillion in interest annually [4][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to prevent financial crises, designed to be an independent entity that balances power between the government and private banks [7][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar and preventing inflation, as historical instances of political interference have led to severe economic consequences [9][11]. Group 3: Potential Consequences - Trump's actions could lead to a loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve, prompting global investors to sell off U.S. dollars and bonds, which could destabilize the financial system [10][12]. - The article warns that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence for personal political gain could have dire repercussions, as seen in past instances where political pressure led to rampant inflation [11][12].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a downward trend, influenced by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - The recent peak of gold prices reached $3534.10, but a rapid decline followed due to rumors regarding tariff clarifications from the White House [2] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3340, with potential further declines targeting $3330, $3315, $3300, and ultimately $3245, $3150-3120, and $3000-2950 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have continued to decline, with Brent crude falling to $66.07 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.30, primarily due to increased tariffs and OPEC's decision to boost production [5][6] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming inflation data from the U.S., which is expected to significantly influence oil prices [5] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for oil, with a focus on resistance levels at $66.0-$67.0 and support levels at $62.5-$61.5 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian military has decided to suspend the purchase of six P-8I Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft from the United States in response to increased tariffs imposed by President Trump, which have risen to 50% on imports from India [1][4][6]. Group 1: Military and Defense Implications - The suspension of the P-8I purchase, valued at $3.6 billion, indicates a strong stance from the Indian military against U.S. tariffs [4][8]. - The Indian Navy's options for anti-submarine aircraft are limited, with the P-8I being the most suitable choice due to its delivery timelines and logistical support [4][6]. - The Indian military's decision reflects a broader strategy to support the Indian government in its trade disputes with the U.S. [4][6]. Group 2: Economic and Trade Context - The U.S. tariffs have significantly impacted India's economy, particularly as it is in a phase of industrial capital accumulation and relies heavily on low-end products [6][11]. - The Indian government has struggled to formulate effective countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, despite public statements of strong opposition [6][7]. - The situation has led to concerns within India about losing access to the U.S. market, which could have severe economic repercussions [6][11]. Group 3: Political Reactions - Indian political leaders have expressed outrage over the perceived double standards in U.S. trade policy, particularly in comparison to China [7][11]. - There is pressure on Prime Minister Modi to adopt a firmer stance against the U.S. tariffs to maintain domestic support [7][11]. - The Indian government had initially hoped to benefit from U.S. actions against China but has found itself targeted instead [7][11].

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries that have not reached agreements, with tariffs set to take effect on August 7, 2025, rather than the previously announced deadline of August 1, 2025 [1] - The tariffs are expected to increase consumer costs, with estimates suggesting that American households will face an additional annual expenditure of between $2,100 and $3,800 due to these tariffs, disproportionately affecting low-income families [1] - The tariffs will lead to price increases in various sectors, including food, appliances, electronics, and building materials, significantly impacting small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on imported materials [2] Group 2 - The U.S. administration's approach is likely to erode trust among traditional allies, as countries like Canada and Mexico, despite being part of trade agreements, are still included in the tariff list, raising concerns about the reliability of U.S. trade commitments [2] - The unilateral imposition of tariffs may prompt other countries to strengthen their own economic alliances and reduce dependence on the U.S. market, potentially leading to a fragmentation of global trade networks [4] - Legal challenges against the tariffs are emerging, with affected businesses and industry associations filing lawsuits, which could undermine the current policy framework if courts restrict presidential powers regarding tariffs [3] Group 3 - The ongoing tariff strategy may accelerate the trend of "supply chain isolation," leading to fragmented regional industrial networks and diluted overall competitiveness [4] - The unilateral actions of the U.S. government are marginalizing multilateral trade mechanisms like the WTO, as countries begin to seek alternatives to reduce the impact of U.S. sanctions and tariffs [4] - If the U.S. continues to use tariffs as a negotiation tool instead of adhering to established trade rules, it risks diminishing its moral authority in global governance and increasing its vulnerability in future geopolitical confrontations [5]

Core Viewpoint - In a surprising turn of events, three neighboring countries of China—Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia—have aligned with the United States, marking a significant shift in regional dynamics and signaling a potential confrontation with China led by Trump [1][8]. Group 1: Trade Agreements - Within 24 hours, Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia reached new trade agreements with the U.S., which include zero tariffs on U.S. goods while imposing tariffs of 19% to 15% on their products [3][6]. - The Philippines, under President Marcos, quickly shifted its stance after Trump threatened a 20% tariff on its goods, resulting in a commitment to zero tariffs on U.S. products [3][4]. - Indonesia agreed to similar terms, including a commitment to purchase 50 Boeing aircraft and significant imports of U.S. energy and agricultural products [4][6]. - Japan signed a historic agreement involving zero tariffs on U.S. goods and a 15% tariff on Japanese products, alongside a commitment to invest $550 billion in the U.S. [6][8]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The agreements signify a strategic maneuver by the U.S. to dismantle China's influence in the region, as these countries previously acted as a buffer in the U.S.-China rivalry [8][18]. - Trump's actions are viewed as a calculated regional encirclement strategy, aiming to alter the economic dependencies of these nations and apply pressure on China [8][18]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the upcoming U.S.-China negotiations will focus on China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran, hinting at a more severe confrontation ahead [11][18]. Group 3: Global Reactions - Other countries, such as South Korea and India, are also facing pressure to align with the U.S., with South Korea already importing $2.2 billion worth of U.S. beef, which constitutes 32% of its rice import quota [13][18]. - Malaysia has been singled out for potential tariffs, indicating that many nations may have to make concessions under U.S. pressure [16][18]. - The broader implications of Trump's tariff policies may lead to increased uncertainty in the global economy, affecting not only the targeted countries but also U.S. consumers who may face higher prices and lower quality goods [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is seeking to pivot towards China for cooperation in response to the escalating trade tensions and tariff threats from the United States, raising questions about the sincerity of this shift and its implications for EU-China relations [1][6]. Group 1: EU's Response to US Tariffs - The EU is under significant pressure from the US, which has threatened to increase tariffs on EU goods, leading to a chaotic internal situation within the EU [1]. - The EU has historically aligned with the US in international matters, but the recent tariff threats have prompted a reevaluation of this stance, with China emerging as a potential partner [1][2]. - The EU's attempts to negotiate lower tariffs with the US have failed, resulting in a hardening of the US position and increased tariff rates, which has left the EU in a difficult position [2]. Group 2: EU-China Relations - The EU has been inconsistent in its approach to China, balancing the need for economic cooperation with the pressure to align with US policies, including sanctions against Russia and investigations into Chinese electric vehicles [5][6]. - During her visit to China, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of deepening trade relations with China, asserting that this is not solely a reaction to deteriorating US relations [6]. - The EU's recent sanctions against certain Chinese entities, while attempting to appease the US, have complicated its relationship with China and may hinder future cooperation [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The EU's engagement with China is seen as a dual strategy: seeking economic benefits while also using the relationship as leverage in negotiations with the US [6]. - China has expressed a clear stance on its expectations from the EU, indicating that it will not tolerate any attempts to manipulate the relationship for US interests [5][6]. - The EU's ongoing balancing act between the US and China could lead to unfavorable outcomes if it continues to waver in its commitments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's proposed tariffs on China and the visit of the Russian Energy Minister to China, highlighting the strategic responses from Russia to maintain its trade relations with China amidst U.S. pressure [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Proposal - Trump has proposed a 100% tariff on Russia and a secondary tariff of up to 500% on countries purchasing Russian energy, aimed at pressuring Russia to cease hostilities in Ukraine [1]. - The effectiveness of the 100% tariff is questioned, as U.S.-Russia trade has already plummeted to $3.7 billion, making additional tariffs less impactful [1][2]. Group 2: Russian Energy Exports - China and India are the primary buyers of Russian energy, with Russian crude oil accounting for 36% of India's imports and nearly 20% of China's imports [2]. - The proposed tariffs are seen as a strategy to compel China and India to influence Russia to halt its actions in Ukraine [2]. Group 3: Russian Response - The visit of Russian Energy Minister Zivilev to Beijing is interpreted as a strategic move to reassure China and maintain strong trade ties, which are crucial for Russia's economy [4]. - The meeting is expected to focus on discussions regarding how to counteract Trump's tariff proposals and reinforce the importance of Sino-Russian trade relations [4][6]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The strengthening of Sino-Russian relations is emphasized, with Russia signaling that U.S. actions will not disrupt their trade and partnership [6]. - The article suggests that Trump's tariff threats may inadvertently provide China with an opportunity to secure cheaper Russian energy, as China is unlikely to be intimidated by such proposals [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed tariffs amounting to $25 billion, targeting 24 countries, including the EU, with rates as high as 50% on certain goods [1][3] - The trade tensions have led to significant disruptions in global supply chains, increasing costs and causing a projected reduction in global economic growth from 2.8% to 2.3% [5] - Small economies and export-dependent countries, such as Cambodia, are particularly vulnerable, with trade with the U.S. constituting a significant portion of their GDP [5] Group 2 - U.S. exporters in various sectors, including alcohol and automotive, are facing severe repercussions, with exports to the EU dropping by 20% from 2018 to 2021 [7] - Major U.S. banks are experiencing pressure as corporate clients reduce capital expenditures and hiring due to the uncertainty created by tariff policies [5][7] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, as ongoing tariffs are contributing to rising consumer prices and inflation [9][11] Group 3 - The trade war is characterized by retaliatory measures from affected countries, with the EU considering a counter-response worth €720 billion [1][3] - Trump's tariff strategy is perceived as a "global harvesting machine," impacting not only foreign nations but also the U.S. economy itself [3][11] - The overall sentiment in the market indicates that the trade war has created a situation where there are no clear winners, only escalating tensions and potential economic fallout [11]