021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：12月30日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 3130 ...

《140万亿之后，中国经济凭什么继续向前》 ——从中美博弈到AI前沿，一次看懂中国经济的"硬核底气" 7 M 0 7 190 Amount of the Research of 如果把中国经济比作一艘巨轮，140万亿元不是靠岸，而是一次成功换挡。 第一重底气，在含金量。五年新增约40万亿元，相当于再造一个世界级经济体。更关键的是动力更"新"：数字经济、人工智能、绿色产业成为主引 擎，"AI+制造""新能源+全产业链"让增长更智能、更清洁、更可持续。 第二重底气，在政策定力。宏观政策强调"积极有为"而非非常规，财政更精准，货币更注重物价与预期，逆周期与跨周期并行，目标清晰——稳增长、稳物 价、稳信心。这是一种把方向盘牢牢握在手里的治理能力。 第三重底气，在外部风浪中的主动权。面对经贸摩擦，中国理性反制、扩大开放，外贸规模稳居全球第一，以内循环为底盘、高水平开放为加速器，用确定 性对冲不确定性。 最后看未来，AI不是泡沫，而是筛选器。中国的优势在于超大场景、海量数据、稳定电力，坚持开源与普惠，让技术不仅"能赚钱"，也"能造福人"。正如信 仰所启示的：光不是用来垄断的，而是用来照亮世界的。 一句话总结：中国经济不是 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3960.19 points, down 0.41% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.71% to 13175.22 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.96% to 3134.09 points [4] - The market saw a total of 1612 stocks rise and 3461 stocks fall, indicating a bearish sentiment [4] Trading Volume and Margin Financing - The market turnover was recorded at 19,387.06 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous trading day [5] - The margin financing balance increased to 24,947.63 billion yuan, up by over 8.3 billion yuan from the previous day [5] Economic Indicators and Policy Outlook - The recent PMI data showed a significant seasonal decline, indicating continued pressure on the short-term economic fundamentals [1] - The market is expected to focus on the fundamentals as it enters a relatively policy and expectation vacuum phase in November [1] - The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement, maintaining a scale of 400 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance trade and investment cooperation [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent discussions between Chinese and European officials regarding export controls, particularly focusing on rare earth elements and the EU's response to China's measures [1][2][3] - Chinese Minister Wang Wentao emphasized that the recent export control measures on rare earths are a normal practice to enhance China's export control system and reflect its responsibility as a major country in maintaining global peace and stability [1][3] - The EU's Trade and Economic Security Commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, expressed understanding of China's export controls, citing national security concerns, while urging China to expedite the approval process for European companies' applications [1][2] Group 2 - The articles highlight the ongoing tensions in EU-China trade relations, particularly in light of the new rare earth export controls implemented by China on October 9, which require permits for the export of certain products and technologies [2][3] - There is a growing debate within the EU regarding its trade policy towards China, with countries like Germany and France advocating for discussions on potential retaliatory measures against China's export controls [4] - The introduction of the "anti-coercion mechanism" by the EU, which allows for trade restrictions and other measures, is seen as a significant step in the EU's strategy to respond to perceived threats from China [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions, with trade friction measures increasing by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [1] Group 1: Global Trade Friction - The trade friction measures are significantly influenced by the U.S. repeatedly adjusting its tariff policies, leading to a resurgence in global trade tensions in July [1] - Among 20 monitored countries and regions, the U.S., EU, and Brazil have the highest trade friction indices, with the U.S. having the largest amount of trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [1] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - Trade friction conflicts are concentrated in 13 major industries, particularly in electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals, light industry, and non-ferrous metals, with the electronics industry having the highest trade friction index [1] Group 3: China-Specific Trade Friction - The trade friction index concerning China among 19 countries and regions is at a high level of 107, with the U.S. having the highest index. Key sectors include drones, solar cells, and AI chips [1] - In July, the trade friction measures involving China decreased by 16.4% year-on-year but increased by 11.9% month-on-month [1]

Core Points - The fourth round of US-China trade negotiations is set to take place in Madrid, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent under significant domestic pressure while China maintains a calm stance [1][3][5] - The negotiations are framed as a high-stakes game, with both sides employing strategic moves akin to a chess match, reflecting the ongoing tension in the trade relationship [3][5][9] - The choice of Madrid as the negotiation venue is seen as a strategic move by both parties, with the US aiming to signal unity with European allies and China seeking to showcase its cooperation with EU countries [8][11] Summary by Sections Negotiation Context - The US has been increasing tariffs, with a rapid escalation from 10% to 20% within a few months, while China has responded with measured countermeasures [5][9] - The US faces internal economic pressures, including rising consumer prices and complaints from retailers, which complicate its negotiation strategy [3][9][13] China's Position - China emphasizes dialogue and cooperation, asserting that it will not compromise on core interests, and has shown resilience in its economic performance [11][19] - The Chinese strategy includes strengthening economic ties with other countries, making it difficult for the US to isolate China [11][19] Media and Public Perception - The media narrative varies significantly between the US and China, with US outlets focusing on pressure and challenges, while Chinese media project stability and confidence [15][19] - The negotiations are characterized by a dramatic atmosphere, with global markets closely watching for potential outcomes and implications [20] Potential Outcomes - The negotiations are seen as a critical juncture, with the possibility of reaching a temporary agreement on tariffs that could ease market tensions, or a breakdown that could lead to further escalation [19][20] - The humorous commentary surrounding the potential impact on Spanish wine exports highlights the broader economic implications of the trade talks [8][19]

Group 1 - The U.S. announced a 90-day suspension of the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods while maintaining the existing 10% tariffs, indicating a desire to ease tensions without relinquishing leverage in negotiations [1][3] - Following the U.S. announcement, China quickly retaliated by launching an anti-dumping investigation against Canadian and Japanese imports of halogenated butyl rubber, which had been under investigation since September 2024 [3][5] - The Chinese authorities determined that the imports from Canada and Japan were indeed dumping and causing substantial harm to domestic industries, leading to the imposition of a deposit requirement for these imports starting August 14 [5][7] Group 2 - The swift response from China demonstrates adherence to anti-dumping regulations and WTO rules, targeting U.S. allies to signal that countries supporting U.S. actions against China will face consequences [7] - Japan's cooperation with the U.S. on tariff negotiations and its efforts to assist in resolving issues related to rare earth materials have been noted, indicating a strategic alignment with U.S. interests [5][7] - Canada's previous actions, including imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products, have led to its current predicament, highlighting the interconnectedness of international trade policies and retaliatory measures [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian government criticizes the U.S. for imposing additional tariffs on Indian products, labeling the actions as "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable" and indicating that India will take necessary actions to protect its national interests [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariffs on India - The U.S. President signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports, citing India's import of Russian oil as the reason [1] - The Indian government has expressed regret over the U.S. decision to impose tariffs, emphasizing that its oil imports are based on market factors and aimed at ensuring energy security [1] Group 2: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. has been pressuring India on trade issues, threatening to significantly increase tariffs on Indian products due to India's purchase of Russian oil [1]

Group 1 - The Indian government and major opposition parties have strongly responded to the U.S. threats of imposing tariffs on Indian products due to India's purchase of Russian oil [1] - U.S. President Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing high tariffs and non-tariff barriers as burdensome [1] - India's ruling party and opposition have criticized Trump's comments, emphasizing the need to protect national dignity and economic interests [1] Group 2 - Indian Prime Minister Modi stated the necessity for India to protect its economic interests amid global uncertainties, possibly in response to Trump's previous remarks [2] - Trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have stalled, with India refusing to grant tariff concessions on agriculture and dairy as requested by the U.S. [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the trade volume between the U.S. and India is projected to be approximately $128.8 billion in 2024, with India having a trade surplus of $45.8 billion [2]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce expressed China's expectation to deepen dialogue with the U.S. to achieve more win-win results following the recent economic talks held in Stockholm [1][2] - China's manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first decline in four months [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new pricing mechanism for newly launched drugs, adding over 100 price items related to new medical technologies [2] International News - The Bank of Japan maintained its current interest rate level amid uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Japanese economy [5] - The German government plans a total expenditure of €520.5 billion for the 2026 federal budget, a 3.5% increase from the previous year, with a focus on infrastructure and digital development [5] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 1.18% [6] - The Hang Seng Index ended at 24773.33, down 1.6% [6] - The onshore RMB was quoted at 7.193, appreciating by 62 points [6]