（原标题：泰国7月出口激增11%） 在8月份美国关税豁免到期之前，全球进口需求强劲，推动了出口持续增 长。进口商加快订单速度以减轻潜在的成本风险。此外，政府承诺在与美国的 关税谈判中取得有利结果以及支持受影响出口商的计划也提振了商业信心。 据曼谷邮报8月26日报道,泰商业部称，7月份出口同比增长了11%，这是连 续第13个月增长。 前7个月，出口额增长14.4%，达1954亿美元；进口额增加10.6%，达1951 亿美元，贸易顺差2.599亿美元。7月份对主要市场的出口增长了15.3%。对美 国出口增长率为31.4%，中国为23.1%，日本为7.1%，欧盟为6.6%。东盟五国 增长率为5.6%，而柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸和越南的增长率为1.9%。预计8月份和 今年余下时间出口将放缓，但保持乐观。如果平均每月出口值在220亿至230亿 美元之间，泰国今年就能实现其2％到3％的出口增长目标。下半年的出口风险 因素包括与柬埔寨的贸易中断、对缅甸卡车运输的限制、进口国的库存水平。 泰国贸易政策与战略局局长潘蓬表示，7月份出口额达到285亿美元，进口 同比增长5.1%至282亿美元，贸易顺差3.221亿美元。 ...

abc Global Research 2025 年 08 月 18 日 中国经济透视 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，未来仍面临更多挑 战 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，尽管出口增长有所回升 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，低于市场预期。社零同比增速放缓至3.7%，以 旧换新补贴覆盖的消费品同比增速有所放缓。整体固定资产投资同比下 降5.2%，大幅弱于预期，基建和制造业投资均有所下降，部分受极端天气 影响。房地产活动进一步下行，且房价继续环比下跌；工业生产同比增速回 落至5.7%。另一方面，尽管对美出口降幅扩大，但整体出口同比增速回升 至 7.2%。CPI 同比增速小幅回落至0%，而 PPI 继续同比大幅下跌 3.6%。 新增人民币贷款收缩，为二十年来首次出现单月新增贷款收缩，但政府债券 发行强劲继续推动社融信贷同比增速小幅上升至9%。 预计2025年年内仍将面临更多挑战 7月增长走弱可能意味着此前部分对经济有利的支撑因素开始走弱或转向。 如果房地产去库存没有显著进展，我们仍然预计下半年房地产活动下行持 续。由于居民收入增长和消费者信心较弱，政府并未出台大规模新增刺激政 策，且去年9月以来消费品以旧换新补贴启动带来的高基数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in exports across multiple key products in the first half of 2025, with notable increases in MTBE, butanol, and anhydride exports [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the carbon four deep processing industry, with advantages in exporting to Southeast Asia and South Asia [4]. - Future profit forecasts for the company are optimistic, with projected net profits of 138 million, 408 million, and 546 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, translating to EPS of 0.36, 1.06, and 1.42 yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company exported 1.5205 million tons of MTBE, a year-on-year increase of 15.64%, and 132,700 tons of butanol, up 18.95% [1]. - The export of anhydride reached 109,800 tons, marking a 6.13% increase [1]. Market Dynamics - The company’s MTBE exports to Singapore reached 836,400 tons, a 10.97% increase, while exports to the UAE surged by 43.96% [2]. - The butanol market saw a significant increase in exports to India, with a year-on-year growth of 85.08% [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 7.701 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.816 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [5][10]. - The projected PE ratios indicate a favorable valuation, with 35 times for 2025 and decreasing to 9 times by 2027 [4][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July, China's economic performance was below expectations, with exports being the highlight, but the export growth rate is likely to decline in the future. To maintain rapid economic growth in the second half of the year, domestic demand needs to continue to play a role [5][12][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.7% and the 2.8% in January - June. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 7.3% year - on - year, down from 8.9% in January - June and 9.2% in 2024. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, down from 4.6% in January - June and 4.4% in 2024. Manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 7.2% and the 7.5% in January - June. Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 11.5% decline and the 11.2% decline in January - June [2][6]. - In July, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, compared with a 5.1% increase in the previous month. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 5.1% year - on - year, compared with a 2.0% increase in the previous month [6]. Real Estate - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year - on - year, down from 3.5% in January - June and 12.9% in 2024. Since June, the decline rate of the national new - house sales area has accelerated. In July, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 19% year - on - year [3][8]. - In July, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In second - and third - tier cities, the sales price of second - hand residential properties decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [3][8]. - In July, the funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding from 9.1% in June. The new construction area decreased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 29.5% year - on - year, with the decline rates expanding from June [3][9]. Industrial Added Value - In July, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 5.8% and the 6.8% in June. High - tech manufacturing maintained relatively fast growth, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase in July [10]. Foreign Trade - In July, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.8% and the 5.9% in the previous month. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 0.3% and the 1.1% in the previous month. The trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars [11]. - In July, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6% year - on - year, to the EU by 9.2% year - on - year, to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year, to South Korea increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and to Japan increased by 2.5% year - on - year. Exports to non - top five export countries and regions increased by 13.5% year - on - year, faster than the overall export growth rate [11]. - Considering the front - loading of exports in the first seven months and the relatively high base of export volume in the fourth quarter of last year, China's export growth rate is likely to decline in the future [12]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9% and the 4.8% in June. The growth rates of most categories related to the trade - in policy declined compared with June [15]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 0.14% month - on - month in July, compared with a 0.26% decline in June after adjustment [15]. Service Industry and Unemployment Rate - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, lower than the 6.0% in June [19]. - In July, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy shows positive signs in July 2025, with both exports and imports experiencing growth, indicating a resilient external trade environment despite global economic challenges [1][3][5]. Group 1: Export Growth - In July, China's total goods import and export volume increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8%, marking a 0.8 percentage point acceleration from the previous month [1]. - The growth in exports is supported by the diversification of foreign trade, with significant increases in exports to ASEAN (14.8%), the EU (8.2%), and Belt and Road countries (11.7%) from January to July [4]. - The competitiveness of export products has improved, with a 9.3% year-on-year increase in electromechanical product exports, and a notable 21.8% growth in integrated circuit exports during the same period [4]. Group 2: Import Recovery - Imports also showed a positive trend, with a 4.8% year-on-year increase in July, reflecting a 2.4 percentage point acceleration from the previous month [3]. - The recovery in imports is expected to expand global market demand and contribute to the recovery of the world economy [3]. Group 3: Supportive Environment for Trade - The vitality of foreign trade enterprises remains strong, particularly among private enterprises, which saw an 8.7% year-on-year increase in exports from January to July, outpacing the overall export growth rate [4]. - Despite external uncertainties and pressures on some foreign trade enterprises, China's commitment to high-level opening-up and a complete industrial system will continue to support stable foreign trade development [5].

Core Viewpoint - Zhonglian Heavy Industry (01157) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 6.59 HKD with a transaction volume of 73.39 million HKD, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company and the industry as a whole [1] Industry Summary - According to the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, a total of 17,138 excavators were sold in July, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.2%. Domestic sales accounted for 7,306 units, up 17.2%, while exports reached 9,832 units, marking a 31.9% increase [1] - From January to July, a total of 137,658 excavators were sold, showing a year-on-year growth of 17.8%. The engineering machinery industry is currently experiencing a phase of moderate recovery in domestic demand and steady growth in exports [1][1] - Dongwu Securities has reported that leading companies in the industry are accelerating the release of performance elasticity due to their respective competitive advantages [1] Company Summary - On July 19, a groundbreaking ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was held in Nyingchi City, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY [1] - On July 23, Zhonglian Heavy Industry confirmed its active participation in the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project, stating that its excavators, cranes, and concrete equipment have been deployed to the construction sites [1] - The company has established long-term cooperative relationships with key participants in the Yarlung Tsangpo project and has developed a full range of green, intelligent, high-end, and plateau low-temperature versions of construction equipment [1]

Core Insights - Enterprise Ireland reported record export performance for Irish companies in 2024, with exports reaching €36.75 billion, a 7% increase from the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports to Europe grew by 4% to €10.63 billion, surpassing the UK for the first time as the largest export region [1] - Exports to the UK reached €10.52 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase, marking the first time exceeding €10 billion [1] - Exports to the US amounted to €6.66 billion, with non-food exports contributing €5.61 billion [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Food and sustainable products exports increased by 5% to €16.25 billion [2] - Non-food exports rose by 8% to €20.5 billion, with industrial and life sciences exports growing by 9% to €11.46 billion [2] - High-tech construction exports surged by 20% to €4.66 billion [2] - Technology and services sector grew by 7% to €9.05 billion, with digital technology exports increasing by 9% to €3.16 billion [2] Group 3: Employment and Economic Impact - Companies supported by Enterprise Ireland employed a record 234,454 individuals in 2024 [2] - These companies contributed significantly to the Irish economy, with total spending of €42.65 billion, including €13 billion in wage expenditures [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Thailand's Ministry of Commerce reported a 15.5% year-on-year increase in exports based on customs data for June [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, but they declined in the morning and accelerated the decline in the afternoon, closing at a low level. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts (TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509) fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] - The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, with a decline in the morning and an accelerated decline in the afternoon. The 30 - year (TL2509), 10 - year (T2509), 5 - year (TF2509), and 2 - year (TS2509) treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [1] - Capital market: The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] Market Logic - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - Japan's exports to Europe increased by 3.6% year-on-year in June [1] - Japan's exports to Asia grew by 1.7% year-on-year in June [1]