这波新股，按资金的使用效率看，瑞博生物和Mini收益最好，按首日算，每个乙组大约获利1-2W。 当时期盼的是每个瑞博乙3中8-20万的货，结果出来只有6W不到。可见在明面统计超额倍数之外的黑暗森林，有多少射手在弯弓搭箭，虎视眈眈。有时候估 计倍数不能靠计算力，要靠想象力。有了这个教训，我对兆易创新不敢藏着掖着了，100倍的时候就直接打满。说两句瑞博，市场共识是基本面不错，担心 的有两点，一个是已经入通了，是不是就不发力了？一个是额度漫天飞。单聊入通。对某些公司来说，入通是终极目标，但对瑞博这样的公司，入通只是漫 周末在学习大航海历史。哥伦布探索的新大陆，依据的竟然是错误的信息，他算错了地球的大小，认为向西走大西洋也能很快抵达日本，中国。他找葡萄牙 求赞助，被拒绝了，毕竟葡萄牙当时已经是航海先驱，掌握着远比哥伦布靠谱的地理信息。掐指一算就知道哥伦布错了。得亏不懂海洋的西班牙资助了哥伦 布。于是，他们一起，意外发现了美洲新大陆，获得了丰富的黄金和白银资源。结果，正是基于一连串的错误，让西班牙赢得了对葡萄牙的战略竞争，进而 根本上改写了全球地缘战略格局。感悟是，谁都希望起步就做对的事，但世间大部分的成功是把事做对。 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ·如果只投资2只股票,波动风险,会是 市场整体波动风险的2-3倍。 ·如果股票数量增加到20只，那风险比市 场整体波动风险,高1/3-2/3。 •如果股票数量增加到50只，那风险会和 市场整体风险水平相当。 有经验的朋友 也知道,大部分指数,持有股票的数 量,是50只起步,例如上证50、科创板 50等。50只股票，就跟这个市场的整体 资股票的数量与风险之间的关系如下图 所示: 是市场整体波动 投资股票数量与风险之间的关系 风险的2-3倍 (这里的股票已分散配置不同行业) 风险 比市场整体风险 高1/3-2/3 電量指數 整体风 胎 2日 20日 20 台 100点 3005 可以看出, 风险水平相当，很多指数也是按照这个 数字来编制。 ·继续增加股票数量,降低风险的作用就 不大了。像沪深300、中证500，分别包 括300只和500只股票。风险就是市场本 身的风险。投资50只还是100只，没有 太大差别。 所以，从降低波动风险的角度来说，大 部分的普通投资者,通过基金组合来投 资几十只甚至上百只股票，就可以比较 省心省力地做好分散投资，是更稳妥的 选择。 风险提示 本文 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investment success hinges on three key factors: buying price, portfolio structure, and patience [4][5]. Group 1: Buying Price - It is crucial to avoid purchasing assets at inflated prices; even a good company can lead to poor returns if bought at a high price [6][7]. - Valuation metrics, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, serve as a straightforward measure to assess whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued [8][10]. - Historical comparisons of valuation can provide context; for instance, the average P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index over the past decade is approximately 12 times, and deviations from this average can signal potential risks or opportunities [10][11]. Group 2: Portfolio Structure - Diversification is essential as it acknowledges the unpredictability of market movements; overconfidence in one's judgment can lead to significant losses [13][14][15]. - Relying solely on one stock or sector increases risk, as market conditions can change unexpectedly, leading to potential capital loss [17][18]. - Embracing broad market indices, such as the CSI 300 or Hang Seng Index, allows investors to capture growth across various sectors, reducing the risk associated with individual stocks [19][20]. Group 3: Patience - The stock market is volatile in the short term but tends to stabilize over the long term; thus, long-term investment strategies are more likely to yield positive returns [21][22]. - Historical data indicates that holding investments for longer periods significantly increases the probability of achieving positive returns, with a 60% chance of profit after one year and over 80% after three years [24]. - Long-term investments should be made with funds that are not needed in the near future, as this reduces anxiety during market fluctuations and helps avoid panic selling [26][27].

Investment Performance - The investment accounts have shown significant returns this year, with convertible bond accounts yielding 18.5% and stock accounts yielding 36.2%, resulting in a cumulative profit exceeding seven figures [1] - The strategy involved holding stocks and convertible bonds during an upward trend, with a reduction in convertible bond positions in August, followed by an increase in stock allocation due to low positions [1] - The focus was on selecting individual stocks, particularly in the duty-free sector, with an emphasis on maintaining a disciplined approach without emotional or forced decisions [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach is characterized by diversified allocation rather than adherence to a single style or asset type, prioritizing clear profit logic and assessable win-odds [1] - The overall portfolio management and dynamic adjustments are deemed more critical than the selection of individual stocks, with position sizing being a key determinant of buying and selling decisions [2] Learning and Personal Development - The individual has committed to an average of one hour of reading daily, completing 115 books and recording 3,600 notes, with a preference for Nobel Prize-winning authors in literature [2] - The process of creating a work is likened to nurturing a tree, emphasizing the long-term effort and growth involved in both investment and personal development [2] - The realization that value is not always immediately apparent but grows through continuous practice and experience is highlighted [3] Risk Management - A structured approach to risk management is outlined, with different strategies based on risk and certainty levels: - Low risk and high certainty lead to heavier positions - Medium risk and medium certainty result in balanced allocations - High risk and low certainty suggest light and diversified positions [4] Personal Reflection - The individual expresses satisfaction in pursuing desired activities and believes in the importance of steady progress towards goals, reflecting a positive outlook on life and investment [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing interest of domestic and foreign investors in Chinese assets, with expectations for emerging markets to benefit from a "weak dollar environment" and a desire for broader diversification in global investment portfolios [2][3] - Deutsche Bank's Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets, Deng Zhijie, predicts that after a valuation recovery in 2025, the Chinese capital market is expected to continue performing positively in 2026, driven by structural opportunities in sectors like new energy, photovoltaics, robotics, automation, and high-end manufacturing [2][3][4] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified investment portfolio to reduce risk and enhance returns, especially in the context of ongoing global market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4] Group 2 - In 2025, many investors began to shift their focus from high-valued developed markets to lower-valued emerging markets, with China showing strong performance compared to expectations, while India's market underperformed [4][5] - The article notes that the investment landscape has been significantly influenced by AI and high-tech sectors, which are expected to continue their upward trend into 2026, with a strong belief in the sustainability of AI investments compared to the tech bubble of the early 2000s [5][11] - The article discusses the resilience of emerging markets, emphasizing the need for robust domestic economic policies to support consumption and growth, particularly in countries like India and China [7][8] Group 3 - There is a notable increase in foreign investment interest in Chinese assets, driven by the realization of the volatility associated with concentrated investments in U.S. assets, leading to a desire for diversification [8][9] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a steady expansion of institutional openness in China, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the Chinese market for foreign investors through improved access and investment opportunities [9][10] - The article highlights the ongoing importance of gold as a safe-haven asset, with expectations for its price to continue rising due to persistent geopolitical uncertainties and central banks reducing their dollar holdings in favor of gold [10][11] Group 4 - The AI industry and related sectors, as well as the banking sector, are identified as key areas of focus for investors in 2026, with expectations of benefiting from economic growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [11][12][13] - The banking sector is anticipated to perform well due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including higher long-term bond yields and the potential for interest rate cuts, which could support bank profitability [12][13]

香港强制性公积金（强积金）制度于2000年12月1日开始实施，是香港退休保障制度的第二支柱，由私营机构管理，接受积金局和香港金融监管机构监 管。 总资产达1.554万亿港元 来自积金评级的数据显示，以绝对金额计，香港强积金系统于2025年实现创纪录的2192亿港元投资收益，为香港强积金最高年度收益；相当于平均每名成 员获利45728港元。 分资产类别来看，中国香港及中国内地股票以31.27%的涨幅，成为表现最突出的强积金资产类别。这一回报率也是上述两项资产自2017年以来的最佳年 度表现。 投资收益创纪录加上供款注入，截至2025年底，香港强积金总资产达1.554万亿港元，相当于479万名成员，平均结余32.41万港元；这一数值较年初增加 54749港元。 香港强积金在2025年创下的空前财富增长，得益于中国香港及中国内地股票的强劲表现。成份基金方面，宏利环球精选（强积金）计划旗下的宏利MPF中 华威力基金成为2025年表现最好的中国香港及中国股票基金。 【导读】2025年香港强积金赚了2192亿港元，创历史新高 2025年，香港强积金实现2192亿港元投资收益，创历史新高。积金评级所有基金表现指数年回报率达 ...

想象一下，当你的股票、基金接连亏损，最后不得不依赖黄金来保值时，难道你不觉得黄金才是真爱 吗？更不用提现代婚俗中的三金了，金手镯、金项链、金戒指，缺一不可，哪怕少了一个都觉得不完 整。确实是年少不知黄金香，长大才知黄金贵！ 黄金价格的波动，真的是一天一个样。有时候涨得让人心跳加速。今年，某些品牌店的黄金价格竟然突 破了700元一克，手工费还不算在内。去年，你可能用一万五就能买到一个金手镯，可今年？起步价两 万，甚至还得看你能不能抢到。这涨价速度，比火箭还快！ 从古代到现代，黄金一直是财富的象征，是人们争相追逐的珍贵物品。无论时代如何变化，黄金总是以 其耀眼的光辉吸引着无数目光，成为人们心头的香饽饽。尤其在后疫情时代，全球经济动荡不安，黄金 作为避险资产的地位更加突出，成了投资者眼中的定海神针，其走势简直是牛气冲天。 要说全球哪个国家的黄金储备最多，那肯定是美国了。早在十多年前，美国就凭借8133.5吨的黄金，稳 稳坐上了全球黄金储备第一的位置。这背后离不开布雷顿森林体系的影响。当时，美元和黄金挂钩，成 为国际贸易的通用货币。各国为了确保自身的经济稳定，纷纷将黄金储备存放在美国。可谁能想到，布 雷顿森林体系会崩 ...

做配置的小雪 . 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ 最近，收到一位朋友留言，他认为，我们应该追求集中投资，而不是分散投资。 集中还是分散，只是两种投资流派，没有对错之分，选择适合自己的才是最好的。 不过，根据我们的经验来看，集中投资是「极少数天赋怪」的游戏，对于大多数投资者而言，分 散投资更容易赚到钱。 01 以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 分散投资的「成功概率」远高于集中投资 过去，集中投资创造了很多财富神话，并被散户们热烈追捧，但事实是，正是因为集中投资成功 的概率极低，所以才叫做"神话"。 即使在成熟的美股市场，提到集中投资的成功典范，我们只能想到巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦。 然而靠分散投资取胜，并且规模不断壮大的机构则非常多，比如贝莱德、先锋领航、道富环球、 桥水、富达等等。 尽管身处财富管理行业最发达的美国，有最顶级的投研团队和技术能力，但是靠分散投资成功的 机构，也比集中投资的更多。 02 集中投资的「难度」远高于分散投资 靠集中投资赚钱的前提是，找到并且看懂好公司，但这非常难。 股票的估值不止受公司影响，还受宏观环境、产业行业、以及市场情绪影响，想要看懂这些更不 容易 ...

发展详情 手握7600万理财资金，偏偏把近80%（6000万）砸进一只私募产品，结果短短一个月内从浮亏不足10%，骤变成亏损超81%，4692万本金蒸发。更离奇的 是，亏损后冒出来的"兜底自然人"只付了200万就没了下文，而涉事私募的备案信息停更7年、核心人员背景存疑……这一连串操作，实在让人看不懂。 先把时间线理清楚，看看这6000万是怎么"快速蒸发"的： 2025年3月，圣元环保全资子公司厦门金陵基，用闲置自有资金认购了一款名为"深博宏图成长1号"的私募产品，认购本金6000万，而且是这只基金的唯一 投资者（专户产品）。 在接下来的大半年里，一切看似风平浪静。圣元环保说，3月到12月案发前，一直正常收到基金管理人的净值资料，没发现任何异常。截至12月4日，这只 基金的单位净值还有0.9215元，亏损不足10%，属于可接受的波动范围。 转折点发生在12月9日。圣元环保跟基金管理人沟通，计划赎回全部份额。没想到三天后收到的净值表，直接让管理层"如坠冰窟"——12月11日，基金净 值骤降至0.2596元，一周时间亏了74%！到12月25日，累计净值增长率更是跌到-81.54%，对应亏损金额约4692万元，已经超 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the three main scenarios of fund losses and provides guidance on whether to hold or sell under different circumstances, emphasizing the importance of understanding the root causes of losses and the long-term logic of industries [7][10][28]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The first scenario of fund losses occurs when the entire market is declining, which is referred to as systematic risk. This type of risk is unpredictable and unavoidable, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis when the market dropped by 60% [10][12][13]. - The market experiences cyclical changes, transitioning from prosperity to recession and back to prosperity, indicating that economic recovery and market confidence will eventually return [15][16]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Issues - The second scenario involves specific industries or themes experiencing downturns. For instance, the photovoltaic industry faced a downturn from 2021 to 2023 due to rapid capacity expansion, but demand remains, suggesting that holding onto investments may be wise if the long-term logic of the industry hasn't changed [18][22][25]. - Investors should assess whether the fundamental logic of the industry has shifted before deciding to sell [27]. Group 3: Fund Management Problems - The third scenario, which requires the most caution, is when the fund manager's management leads to losses. Key indicators include: 1. Long-term performance significantly underperforming peers, necessitating a review over a complete market cycle [30][31]. 2. A shift in investment style, where a fund manager deviates from their stated strategy, indicating a potential gamble rather than a sound investment approach [33]. 3. Departure of a key fund manager, which can lead to a decline in performance if the fund's success was heavily reliant on that individual [36]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - The article suggests that while temporary losses are normal, understanding their causes is crucial for effective management. It highlights the human tendency to react emotionally when losses exceed 20% [39]. - To mitigate risks during market downturns, diversifying across different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities can help reduce overall risk, as these assets often have low correlation [44][50]. - Although diversification may dilute potential gains during strong bull markets, it is presented as a suitable investment strategy for ordinary investors seeking to minimize volatility [52].