潜能大,意味着现有发展优势未被充分开发利用, 发展能力尚未完全展现或释放,经济未来成长进步空间 广阔 从把握高质量发展主题来看, 激发潜能是应对挑战、实现升 级的必然选择 充分挖掘 中国经济潜能 2025年中央经济工作会议系统总结做好新形 势下经济工作新的认识和体会,明确提出"五个 必须",为做好当前和今后一个时期的经济工作 提供了根本遵循。其中,"必须充分挖掘经济潜 能"居于自位。 中国社会科学院习近平新时代中国特色社会 主义思想研究中心特约研究员、金融研究所党委 书记原磊认为,这要求在经济工作中充分发挥我 国韧性强、潜力足、回旋余地大等特点,深刻认 识潜能,有效激发潜能,将其转化为推动经济高 质量发展的澎湃动能,不断巩固拓展经济稳中向 好势头。 为什么要重视 挖掘经济潜能 从构建新发展格局来看,激发 潜能是发挥内需潜力、实现高 水平自立自强的重要要求 我国的经济潜能 体现在哪些方面 在现实中,经济潜能体现为发展中能够持续释放的 四大红利 制度红利,主要来自于 "中国特色社会主义制度优势" ◀ 最大优势是中国共产党领导,具备"集中力 量办大事"的强大组织动员能力和"全国一 盘棋"的统筹协调能力,能够锚定长远 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the necessity to fully tap into economic potential as a fundamental guideline for current and future economic work, highlighting the importance of leveraging China's resilience, ample potential, and flexibility to drive high-quality economic development [1][2]. Economic Potential - China's economy is characterized by its large scale and significant untapped potential, which allows for strong internal circulation and resilience against external risks. The emphasis on "fully tapping economic potential" reflects an accurate understanding of China's economic characteristics and future development trends [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen major breakthroughs in economic development, with GDP steadily increasing and expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025. The average contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is close to 60% [3]. High-Quality Development - The transition to high-quality development necessitates tapping into potential as a means to address challenges and achieve upgrades. By 2024, per capita GDP is projected to rise to $13,445, maintaining a position among upper-middle-income countries [4]. - To achieve the goal of reaching the per capita GDP of developed countries by 2035, economic development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period must maintain an appropriate pace, focusing on deepening the exploration of comprehensive potential in market scale, industrial systems, human resources, and innovation capabilities [4]. New Development Pattern - Tapping into economic potential is crucial for leveraging domestic demand and achieving high-level self-reliance. The new development pattern relies on China's vast market advantages, fostering domestic demand, promoting independent innovation, and optimizing industrial structure [4]. - The emphasis on resource allocation optimization and market vitality is aimed at transforming the scale advantage of the domestic market into real economic growth, providing strong support for the new development pattern [4]. Regional Development - The activation of potential must consider China's unique national conditions, utilizing effective market mechanisms and regional policies to create a new pattern of coordinated regional development. Differences in resource endowments and industrial foundations among regions present opportunities for complementary development [5]. Economic Advantages - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests that China's economic foundation remains stable, with numerous advantages and strong resilience, indicating that the long-term supportive conditions and basic trends have not changed [6]. - The four major dividends of economic potential include: - Institutional dividends from the advantages of the socialist system, which enable effective mobilization and coordination [7]. - Market dividends from the vast market size, with over 1.4 billion people and a growing middle-income group, leading to continuous market expansion [8]. - Industrial dividends from a complete industrial system, enhancing supply chain efficiency and promoting innovation [9]. - Talent dividends from a rich talent pool, with a labor force of approximately 860 million and increasing educational attainment [10]. Transforming Potential into Development Momentum - The key to tapping economic potential lies in transforming the four advantages into four dividends, creating strong momentum for economic development. This involves deepening institutional reforms, expanding consumption and investment, promoting industrial innovation, and ensuring a positive cycle of education and talent [11]. - Specific strategies include enhancing the socialist market economy, increasing consumer spending through income growth and social security improvements, and investing in technology and green transformation [12]. - Emphasizing technological innovation to drive industrial advancement, focusing on key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced manufacturing, is essential for fostering new economic growth points [13]. Systematic Approach - Tapping into economic potential is a systematic project that requires a comprehensive understanding of key focus points, balancing current needs with future trends, and integrating policy support with reform and innovation [14].

Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes the necessity to "fully tap economic potential" as a primary strategy for driving high-quality economic development in China [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Potential - China's economy is characterized by its large scale and significant untapped potential, which can enhance resilience and independence against external risks [3]. - The conference highlights the importance of recognizing and effectively stimulating this potential to transform it into robust economic growth [4]. Group 2: Economic Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economy has made significant strides, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, following a steady increase past 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan [4]. - The average contribution of final consumption to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is projected to be close to 60%, indicating a strengthening role of domestic demand [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus Areas - The need to enhance economic potential is elevated to a strategic level, particularly in light of profound changes in both domestic and international environments, including a new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation [4]. - The transition to high-quality development necessitates a focus on deepening the integration of traditional growth drivers with new ones, leveraging market scale, industrial systems, human resources, and innovation capabilities [5]. Group 4: Advantages and Dividends - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines four key advantages that represent China's economic potential: institutional, market, industrial, and talent dividends [7][8][9][10]. - Institutional dividends stem from the advantages of the socialist system, which enables coordinated efforts and long-term strategic focus [7]. - Market dividends arise from China's vast market size and the growing middle-income population, which enhances consumption and innovation opportunities [8]. - Industrial dividends are linked to China's comprehensive industrial system, which supports efficiency and innovation in production [9]. - Talent dividends are derived from a large and increasingly educated labor force, which is crucial for driving technological and economic advancements [10]. Group 5: Implementation Strategies - To effectively stimulate economic potential, it is essential to focus on deepening institutional reforms, expanding consumption and investment, and promoting industrial innovation [11]. - Strategies include enhancing the domestic market through increased consumer income and investment in key sectors such as technology and green transformation [12]. - Emphasis on technological innovation is critical for driving industrial upgrades and fostering new economic growth points [13].

中新网昆明12月26日电 (王浩)昆明海关26日消息，2025年前11个月，云南货物贸易进出口2504.6亿元， 同比(下同)增长10.5%。其中，出口860.4亿元，增长2.1%；进口1644.2亿元，增长15.5%。 出口方面提质向新，前11个月，云南农产品出口181.3亿元，增长4.5%，占出口总值的21.1%，出口规模 居中西部省份第一，鲜切花、咖啡及制品出口均为全国第一，水果出口居全国第二，鲜或冷藏蔬菜出口 居全国第三；"新三样"(光伏产品、锂电池、电动汽车)出口28.8亿元，增长115.9%。 高水平开放助力云南外贸发展，云南自贸区自2019年8月成立至今，累计进出口3777.5亿元，占同期云 南外贸的21.9%，制度红利持续转化为发展实效。2024年12月1日起，中国对建交最不发达国家100%零 关税特惠税率正式生效。一年来，云南自最不发达国家进口552.9亿元，增长8.9%。(完) 从月度走势看，云南进出口值自4月起，已连续8个月保持增长，11月出口、进口双增长，分别增长 7.2%、33.8%，整体呈现稳中向好态势。 云南与共建"一带一路"国家贸易联系更加紧密，前11个月，云南对共建"一带一路 ...

Core Insights - China's service trade has shown steady growth, with total service trade reaching 59,362.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [2] - The government has implemented a series of policies to support service trade, including the recent issuance of 20 tasks and over 70 specific policy measures aimed at promoting high-quality service trade development [3] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) has organized initiatives to help enterprises expand into international markets, including the "Thousand Groups Going Abroad" campaign [5][6] Service Trade Growth - In the first three quarters, service exports amounted to 26,015 billion yuan, growing by 14.4%, while imports reached 33,347.2 billion yuan, increasing by 2.8% [2] - The increase in service trade is attributed to the implementation of policies that enhance the business environment and promote service industry openness [2] Policy Support - The State Council's recent opinion emphasizes five areas for service trade development, including institutional opening and resource flow, with specific measures to support knowledge-intensive service sectors like digital services and intellectual property [3] - New policy measures include optimizing zero tax rate declaration procedures and enhancing inbound consumption facilitation [3] International Market Expansion - The CCPIT has facilitated 2,249 delegations to 102 countries for market exploration last year, with 1,623 exhibition projects approved this year, covering an exhibition area of 950,000 square meters [5] - The organization aims to enhance international cooperation and support enterprises in participating in global markets [6] Legal Services Enhancement - The revised arbitration law, effective from March 2026, aims to improve China's arbitration system, enhancing its international competitiveness and supporting high-quality development [7] - The establishment of the International Mediation Institute, which focuses on resolving international disputes through mediation, is expected to enhance the legal framework for international trade [8]

Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has outlined the direction for China's future development, emphasizing "high-quality development" as the core theme for the 15th Five-Year Plan, aiming for "qualitative effective improvement" and "reasonable quantitative growth" [1] Group 1: Transformation Core - The essence of China's economic transformation is a long marathon of market-oriented reforms that challenge and break through existing systemic barriers [2] - The current dilemma in the digital economy reflects a coexistence of arbitrary administrative intervention and a lack of institutional rules, necessitating continuous market-oriented reforms to replace policy arbitrariness with stable and transparent institutional certainty [2] Group 2: Growth Momentum - Sustainable growth must derive from "institutional dividends" rather than "policy dividends," focusing on enhancing fundamental institutional environments like property rights protection and fair competition to stimulate endogenous innovation [3] - The old approach of relying heavily on policy support while neglecting institutional guarantees has hindered innovation, indicating a need for deeper institutional reforms to allow market mechanisms to play a decisive role in resource allocation [3] Group 3: Development Goals - High-quality development is not merely about slowing down growth but involves a unified improvement of efficiency and fairness, requiring the dismantling of administrative dominance over resource allocation [4] - The focus should be on "opportunity fairness" and "result adjustment," ensuring that the benefits of reform and development are equitably shared among all citizens [4] Group 4: Open Wisdom - In the face of global challenges, true autonomy requires strengthening competitiveness through open competition, which involves aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules to drive domestic institutional reforms [5] - Ensuring the security of industrial and supply chains relies on occupying an irreplaceable position in global division of labor, which necessitates institutional innovation to attract global talent, technology, and capital [6] Group 5: Roadmap for the 15th Five-Year Plan - Achieving "qualitative effective improvement" and "reasonable quantitative growth" requires a systematic support framework, focusing on technological self-reliance and breakthroughs in strategic fields like artificial intelligence and biomanufacturing [6] - Expanding domestic demand and deepening income distribution reforms are essential to stimulate consumer potential, while maintaining a stable macroeconomic policy to ensure economic operation within a reasonable range [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to improve, with significant opportunities for quality growth companies, driven by unique selection logic and fundamental research [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong stock market has attracted over 1 trillion yuan in southbound capital inflows this year, with sectors like innovative drugs, new consumption, and hard technology gaining attention [1]. - The "quality growth" investment strategy focuses on three dimensions: domestic demand, international expansion, and unique institutional advantages of the Hong Kong market [2][5]. - Companies benefiting from domestic demand are showing solid fundamentals and wider competitive moats, with potential for valuation and profit "double boosts" as the economic cycle stabilizes [2]. - Companies actively expanding internationally are expected to elevate their growth ceilings, with the potential emergence of world-class brands and industry leaders [2]. - The unique institutional advantages of the Hong Kong market, such as flexible IPO and refinancing systems, provide a rich source of growth opportunities for innovative companies [2]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by high volatility, often being the first to be sold off during market panic, which presents both risks and unique investment opportunities [3]. - Investors are encouraged to conduct in-depth fundamental research and maintain confidence in the long-term fundamentals of companies to achieve better performance [3]. - A stable investment framework and a calm mindset are crucial for successful investing, especially when there is a significant disconnect between a company's stock price and its intrinsic value [3]. Group 3: Future Market Trends - Investment strategies are shifting from external to internal focus, with the Chinese economic fundamentals and corporate profit cycles becoming the core drivers of the Hong Kong market [5]. - There is a growing emphasis on mid-level analysis, with in-depth research on industry cycles and leading companies being key to achieving excess returns [5]. - The market is expected to see opportunities in sectors that may currently be overlooked, with a focus on identifying mispriced assets through a "turning stones" approach [5].

Core Insights - The investment landscape is experiencing a revival, with increased fundraising, investment, and exit activities in the venture capital sector [2][3][10] - There is a significant shift in international capital's perception of Chinese assets, moving from "cannot invest" to "cannot miss investing" [3][8] IPO Activity - The Hong Kong IPO market is witnessing a surge, with total IPO financing reaching HKD 182.9 billion by the end of September, more than doubling compared to the same period in 2024 [7] - The number of public listing applications being processed is close to 300, indicating a robust market environment [7][8] Exit Opportunities - The current year is being referred to as a "year of exits," with many projects being encouraged to initiate the IPO process, revitalizing the investment chain [5][6] - Improved exit expectations are allowing funds to communicate more confidently with Limited Partners (LPs) and restructure valuation systems for late-stage projects [6] Foreign Investment Trends - There is a noticeable increase in enthusiasm from overseas investors, particularly from Europe, the Middle East, and emerging markets, who are becoming foundational investors in Hong Kong IPOs [8][11] - Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are actively engaging with the Chinese market, exemplified by a USD 300 million equity investment fund focused on AI, new energy, and semiconductor sectors [12] Talent Market Changes - The talent market is also responding to the renewed investment activity, with several funds restarting key recruitment after a three-year freeze [13] - There is a growing demand for investment professionals to support Chinese companies' international expansion [13] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is shifting positively, with increased trading activity and a clear opening of exit windows [10][15] - The current phase is characterized by a new cycle driven by institutional benefits and high-quality assets, marking a fundamental change in foreign LPs' attitudes towards Chinese assets [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of the Chinese economy from a phase of demographic and institutional dividends to a new balance focused on quality growth rather than speed, emphasizing the need for higher efficiency, precise distribution, and effective risk management [1] Group 1: Economic Transition - The shift from "high savings, weak consumption" to "strong consumption + strong services" is essential for making the middle-income group a new economic engine [3] - Financial strategies need to evolve from reliance on real estate to embracing innovation and improving livelihoods, with macro-prudential measures to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [3] - The restructuring of rules to balance fairness and efficiency is crucial, including increasing labor income share, enhancing public services, and optimizing the business environment [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The combination of structural rebalancing and institutional upgrading is expected to accelerate growth on a more stable trajectory, suggesting that a new "Chinese miracle" remains achievable [3] - The departure of demographic dividends is framed not as an end but as the beginning of a "new balance" in the economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "golden age" of income for Chinese residents has shifted significantly from the age of 55 in the 1990s to 35 in 2010, contrasting with the stable age of around 50 in the United States, reflecting profound changes in human capital structure and income distribution in China [2][3]. Group 1: Changes in Human Capital - The shift in the income age curve is primarily attributed to substantial intergenerational differences in human capital among the labor force [3]. - The younger workforce entering the labor market has a significantly higher initial human capital due to rapid educational improvements since the reform and opening-up period [3][4]. - Data shows that since 1985, actual wages for male laborers across all age groups in China have increased significantly, with the younger demographic experiencing faster growth, thereby advancing the "golden age" [3][5]. Group 2: Institutional Benefits and Time Effects - The rapid growth of human capital returns in China post-1985 has outpaced that of the United States, which has seen a growth rate of only about 1% during the same period [5]. - Institutional reforms such as state-owned enterprise reform, WTO accession, and labor mobility have unleashed significant market vitality, leading to a substantial increase in human capital returns [5]. Group 3: Future Projections - A counterfactual simulation suggests that if the growth rates of birth group effects and time effects slow down over the next 30 years while experience effects remain constant, the income golden age in China could rise to 45-50 years by 2035, approaching current U.S. levels [6]. - This potential shift may bring both positive impacts, such as a resurgence in the value of experienced workers, and increased employment pressure on the middle-aged demographic [6].