加息预期

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加息押注消退,日元势创今年最大单周跌幅
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-10-10 03:41
随着市场对日本央行再次加息的押注迅速消退,日元正走向一年来最糟糕的一周。 10月10日,日元兑美元汇率在亚洲早盘时段徘徊在153附近,维持在自今年2月中旬以来的最低水平。本周以来,日元累计跌幅已接近4%,有望创 下去年10月初以来的最大单周跌幅。 日元汇率的急剧下滑,核心在于市场担忧财政鸽派人物高市早苗的意外胜选,将使日本央行在年内再度加息的可能性降低。即将成为日本首位女 首相的高市早苗周四表示,日本央行负责制定货币政策,但其任何决定都必须与政府目标保持一致,这加剧了市场对该国央行独立性的疑虑。 澳大利亚联邦银行的货币策略师Carol Kong表示,"市场仍然认为,高市早苗的领导将使日本央行在政治上难以提高利率"。 随着政治前景的变化,交易员们已大幅调整了对日本央行政策的预期。根据市场定价,目前交易员预计日本央行在12月会议上加息的可能性约为 45%。 对于更长期的路径,市场目前已完全消化了在明年3月进行一次25个基点加息的预期。这表明,投资者已将短期内收紧货币政策的希望寄托于更远 的未来。 与此同时,市场对日本当局干预汇市的预期也在减弱。据Carol Kong分析,日本财务大臣加藤胜近期关于外汇市场的评论表 ...
日本10年期国债收益率升至1.67%,2008年7月以来最高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-03 04:56
Core Points - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.67%, the highest level since July 2008 [1] - The Ministry of Finance set the coupon rate for the upcoming 10-year bonds at 1.7%, an increase from 1.5% in the previous quarter, marking a 17-year high [4] - The rise in long-term interest rates is driven by expectations of an early interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [4] Summary by Category Government Bonds - The coupon rate for the 10-year government bonds has been adjusted to 1.7%, reflecting a significant increase from the previous rate of 1.5% [4] - The increase in interest rates may lead to higher debt servicing costs for the government, raising concerns about fiscal pressure [4] Monetary Policy - Two policy committee members of the Bank of Japan proposed raising the policy rate to around 0.75% during the September monetary policy meeting, contributing to market expectations of a rate hike in October [4] - The ruling party's minority status in both houses of parliament has heightened vigilance regarding fiscal expansion, which is also a factor contributing to the rise in long-term interest rates [4]
日本央行副行长暗示10月或加息,称经济达标将继续上调利率
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-02 09:49
日本央行副行长内田真一重申,若经济运行符合预期,央行将提高基准利率。此番表态发表在一项关键 指标显示企业信心保持乐观后的次日。 内田真一周四在东京的一次金融会议上简短发言时称:"若经济和物价展望实现,日本央行将继续提高 政策利率并相应调整货币宽松程度。" 这一政策立场的重申可能强化市场对当局在10月30日下次会议上加息的预期。通过表明周三发布的短调 调查显示企业信心处于良好水平,内田似乎在暗示调查结果印证经济正按央行预期发展。 市场观察人士尤为重视内田的言论,这位资深央行官员十多年来在货币政策策划和执行中一直发挥着关 键作用。内田表示:"制造业部分领域企业情绪改善,总体保持在良好水平,反映出日美关税协议签署 后前景不确定性已消退。" 讲话后日元汇率剧烈震荡,先是走强随后回落。周四东京尾盘日元兑美元报147.16左右。 三菱日联银行全球市场研究主管伊藤铁平称:"内田言论看似在为10月加息铺路,但未将央行逼入死 角,并未过度倾向加息。" 日本央行季度短观调查显示,大型制造业信心连续两个季度改善,大型非制造业指标维持高位。这份调 查是央行发布的最受关注数据之一。 上月两位委员反对维持0.5%政策利率并要求加息,加之 ...
东京CPI不及预期 日元多空拉锯静待央行10月抉择
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-30 04:03
Core Viewpoint - The recent data on Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) indicates a weaker-than-expected inflation trend, which may impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Tokyo region's September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, below the market expectation of 2.8% [1] - This data reflects a marginal weakening of domestic inflation momentum in Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Despite the CPI data, most institutions and traders still anticipate that the Bank of Japan may implement a rate hike in October [1] - The rationale behind this expectation is that inflation in Japan has consistently exceeded the central bank's price stability target [1] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The weak yen is contributing to import-driven inflation pressures, which policymakers cannot overlook [1] - The recent global financial market sentiment has shown signs of weakening, with geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown concerns reinforcing the yen's traditional safe-haven status [1] Group 4: Market Reactions - The combination of disappointing inflation data and ongoing rate hike expectations has led to a tug-of-war in the yen's performance [1] - If global risk aversion continues to rise or if the Bank of Japan signals any unexpected normalization of policy, it could provide significant support for the yen in the medium term [1]
鲍威尔问候语成市场风向标,AI实时追踪唇形预判走势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 11:05
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with market reactions closely tied to the specific phrases used by Chairman Jerome Powell during his address [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Powell's greeting of "good afternoon" typically signals hawkish stances on inflation and interest rate hikes, often leading to a decline in major stock indices, with a noted drop of over 1.5% in the day following such remarks [1] - Conversely, when Powell opens with "hello everyone," it is more likely to indicate dovish signals regarding economic soft landing and policy easing, with historical data showing a greater than 60% probability of the S&P 500 rising the next day [1] Group 2: Technological Adaptation - Wall Street institutions have implemented AI systems to analyze Powell's lip movements in real-time, allowing for rapid trading decisions based on the phonetic sounds he makes [1] - The AI system triggers short positions in Treasury futures within 0.3 seconds upon detecting the "g" sound, while it increases risk asset positions when the "h" sound is identified [1]
日本政局生变扰动央行决策,本周料按兵不动聚焦10月信号
智通财经网· 2025-09-16 02:24
Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's intention to resign introduces new variables for the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, with the market expecting the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 0.5% [1] - A survey of 50 economists indicates that all predict the interest rate will remain stable, while officials are assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs on both domestic and international economies [1][4] - Over one-third of respondents anticipate a potential rate hike to 0.75% in October, depending on the stance of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 2 - Despite political instability, Bank of Japan officials believe a rate hike could still occur by the end of the year if economic data meets expectations, supported by strong GDP and inflation indicators [4] - The resignation of Ishiba increases political uncertainty, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lacking a majority in both houses of parliament, potentially delaying the rate hike if a new leader, such as Sanae Takaichi, is elected [7] - Historical coordination between the Bank of Japan and the government shows that policy disagreements can lead to conflicts, but concerns have eased since the large-scale easing in 2013 [7] Group 3 - The U.S. economic slowdown could pressure Japanese corporate profits and wage growth, disrupting the positive inflation cycle [7] - The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts directly influences the yen's value, with rapid appreciation harming corporate profits and excessive depreciation raising import inflation [7] - The upcoming policy statement from the Bank of Japan is expected to remain largely unchanged, with Governor Ueda's press conference being a focal point for market reactions [7][8] Group 4 - A majority of observers believe that Ueda leans dovish when maintaining rates and hawkish when considering a rate hike, with an important speech scheduled for October 3 that may indicate future actions [8] - Nomura's chief strategist suggests that the next rate hike could occur as early as December, with January being the baseline scenario, as the urgency for action from the Bank of Japan has decreased [9]
通胀失业利好日元待破局契机
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-02 03:46
Core Viewpoint - The recent data from Japan indicates a surprising drop in unemployment and sustained high inflation indicators in Tokyo, strengthening market expectations for the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates in the coming months, which may support the yen against the dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's unemployment rate has unexpectedly decreased, while inflation indicators in the Tokyo region remain elevated [1] - These economic factors are likely to bolster the yen, providing upward support against the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The foreign exchange market has been primarily influenced by the re-evaluation of interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, which has dominated the fluctuations of the USD/JPY pair [1] - Despite positive domestic fundamentals for the yen, the ability to break through recent consolidation levels will largely depend on upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in a high-level consolidation range, positioned above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, but short-term momentum is weakening [1] - A breakout above 148.20 could lead to a test of the previous high at 149.00, while a drop below the support level of 146.80 may result in a decline towards 145.50 [1]
加息预期压顶 日本两年期国债拍卖需求创16年来新低
智通财经网· 2025-08-28 06:57
Group 1 - The demand for Japan's two-year government bond auction has dropped to its lowest level in 16 years, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.84, significantly lower than the previous auction's 4.47 and the 12-month average of 4.01 [1][4] - The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has risen to 0.866%, just a few basis points below the highest level since 2008, reflecting market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1][4] - Japan's inflation rate has consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year in July, surpassing market expectations [4][5] Group 2 - Concerns over rising inflation and expectations of increased government bond issuance following the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections have contributed to weak demand for Japanese government bonds [4][5] - The continuous rise in long-term government bond yields is starting to deter foreign investors, who are slowing their purchases of Japanese long-term bonds [5] - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming Tokyo CPI data, which is expected to show strong performance, potentially reinforcing the Bank of Japan's belief that inflation is moving towards sustainable targets [5]
日本财务省2年期国债:标售需求创2009年来最低
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 06:45
Core Insights - The demand for Japan's 2-year government bond auction on August 28 reached its lowest level since 2009, indicating a significant decline in investor interest [1] - Investors are hesitant to buy due to expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in the near future [1] Auction Details - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 2.84, the lowest since September 2009, compared to 4.47 in the previous auction in July [1] - The average price of the auction showed a gap of 0.022 yen from the minimum accepted price, which was wider than the previous auction's gap of 0.005 yen [1]
日本10月加息预期压不住了?长债收益率大涨,短债拍卖遇冷
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-28 05:45
Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a neutral stance despite market speculation about potential interest rate hikes as early as October, leading to a rise in long-term bond yields and a weak demand for short-term bond auctions [2][3] - BOJ committee member Junko Nakagawa emphasized that the central bank will continue to raise policy rates if economic and inflation conditions allow, while also highlighting trade-related uncertainties [3] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached a 17-year high earlier this week, driven by stable economic activity and persistent inflation, further fueling speculation about interest rate hikes [3] Group 2 - The auction demand for Japan's two-year government bonds fell to its weakest level in 16 years, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.84, the lowest since 2009 [4] - The weak auction results are attributed to speculation about BOJ interest rate hikes and expectations of increased short-term bond issuance, making it difficult for investors to establish positions at the short end of the curve [4] - Overall, the poor auction results across various maturities indicate weakening market demand amid improved economic prospects and hawkish signals from the BOJ [4]