央行官员警告，人口老龄化带来的不仅是增长放缓风险，还可能推高通胀压力。在劳动力普遍短缺的环 境下，工人将获得更强的议价能力，能够要求更高的工资，这可能形成工资-价格螺旋上升的风险。 全球主要经济体央行行长在杰克逊霍尔年会上发出警告，人口老龄化正成为威胁经济增长和物价稳定的 重大挑战。 8月23日，据媒体报道，日本央行行长植田和男、欧洲央行行长拉加德和英国央行行长贝利一致认为， 发达国家未来几十年将面临劳动力严重短缺问题。除非能够吸引更多外国工人，否则将难以维持经济增 长和价格稳定。 植田和男在堪萨斯城联储年度研讨会上表示，快速老龄化使劳动力短缺成为日本"最紧迫"的经济问题之 一。尽管外国工人仅占日本劳动力的3%，但他们贡献了近期劳动力增长的一半。 拉加德指出，如果没有外国工人流入，欧元区到2040年将减少340万工作年龄人口。 贝利强调，人口结构和生产率下降对英国经济构成的"急迫"挑战未得到足够重视。到2040年，英国40% 的人口将超过16-64岁的标准工作年龄段。 人口老龄化威胁经济增长和通胀稳定 报道称，发达经济体普遍面临历史性低生育率和人口寿命延长的双重冲击，这推高了所谓的抚养比，意 味着非工作年龄人 ...

Core Insights - FOOD&LIFE COMPANIES (F&LC) reported a revenue increase of 18.3% year-on-year to 313.149 billion yen for the fiscal year 2025 third quarter, with a net profit growth of 74.3% to 18.072 billion yen [1] - The company operates multiple restaurant brands, including Sushiro, Sugidama, Kyotaru, and Misaki, with a total of 1,180 stores, an increase of 25 stores year-on-year [1] - Sushiro remains the primary revenue driver, with a significant performance difference between domestic and international markets [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, Sushiro's net sales in Japan grew by 11.6% to 195.99 billion yen, while international sales surged by 41.2% to 93.105 billion yen [2][3] - Segment profit for Sushiro in Japan was 15.271 billion yen, while international segment profit reached 11.116 billion yen, reflecting a strong international performance [3] Market Expansion - Sushiro has expanded its international presence, with 212 stores outside Japan, a 38-store increase year-on-year, while the domestic market saw a decrease of 12 stores to 960 [1] - F&LC plans to continue expanding its international footprint while carefully evaluating the business environment in various regions [4] Economic Context - The recovery of Japan's economy is attributed to rising personal consumption and increased demand from overseas tourists, although challenges remain due to global political instability and prolonged yen depreciation [3] - The restaurant industry faces ongoing challenges, including rising prices of raw materials and energy, as well as a long-term labor shortage [3]

Group 1 - Japanese companies have agreed to an average salary increase of 5.25% this year, marking the largest increase in 34 years and achieving strong growth for the third consecutive year [1] - The average bonus payment for major companies this summer increased by 4.37% compared to the previous year, reaching a record 990,848 yen [1] - A significant labor shortage in Japan, particularly in non-manufacturing sectors and small businesses, has reached historical levels, leading to some companies going bankrupt [1] Group 2 - Two-thirds of Japanese companies believe that labor shortages are severely impacting their business [2] - There is a growing consensus among companies that salary increases must exceed inflation, which is currently around 3.7% for core consumer price index [2] - Stable wage growth is crucial for maintaining a consumption-driven economic recovery, which is also a prerequisite for the Bank of Japan to resume interest rate hikes [2] Group 3 - Mizuho Research & Technologies forecasts a 4.7% wage growth next year, assuming a decline in oil prices to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits [2] - Daiwa Securities anticipates average wage growth between 4.5% and 4.9% next year, emphasizing the need for non-manufacturers to take the lead in salary increases [2] - Current trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are stalled, with threats of tariffs on Japanese imports potentially rising to 35% [2]

Group 1 - The Italian government plans to issue nearly 500,000 work visas to non-EU citizens over the next three years to address labor shortages and expand legal immigration channels [1] - By 2026, approximately 165,000 work visas will be issued to non-EU citizens, with a total of nearly 498,000 visas expected to be issued by 2028 [1] - The visa allocation considers social needs and previous years' applications, aiming to create a plan that meets both business demands and practical realities [1] Group 2 - Italy, as the third-largest economy in the Eurozone, faces significant labor shortages due to aging population and declining birth rates [1] - In 2024, Italy's death rate is projected to exceed its birth rate by approximately 281,000, leading to a population decrease of 37,000 to 58.93 million, continuing a decade-long trend [1] - Research indicates that Italy will need to absorb at least 10 million immigrants by 2050 to address the challenges posed by ongoing population decline [1] Group 3 - Since taking office in October 2022, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has prioritized curbing illegal immigration, with the government planning to tighten policies against illegal migrants [2] - The government aims to expedite deportations and combat illegal crossings of the Mediterranean [2]

Core Points - The Italian government has approved a new decree to issue nearly 500,000 work visas for non-EU citizens over the next three years [1] - This initiative is part of a strategy to address labor shortages and expand legal immigration channels in response to declining birth rates and an aging population [1] Group 1 - The Italian government plans to introduce 450,000 foreign workers from 2023 to 2025, followed by nearly 500,000 from 2026 to 2028 [1] - Italy's population is projected to decrease by approximately 37,000 in 2024, with a death toll exceeding births by about 281,000 [1] - The fertility rate in Italy has dropped to 1.18 in 2024, marking the lowest level since 1995 [1] Group 2 - A think tank's research indicates that Italy needs to accept at least 10 million immigrants by 2050 to maintain its current population level [1] - The new immigration policy aims to establish a stable and legal immigration mechanism, combating illegal entry and exploitation of workers [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the housing market is uniquely affected by labor shortages due to immigration policies and other factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's labor shortage is prompting conservative lawmakers to consider comprehensive reforms to social welfare regulations related to "housewives," which have been in place for decades [1] Group 1: Labor Market Impact - The proposed legislation will require part-time workers to contribute to pension and health insurance plans, addressing a significant barrier for women to extend their working hours or advance their careers [1] - The current policy, introduced during Japan's economic boom in 1986, applies to "dependent" spouses with annual incomes below 1.3 million yen (approximately 9,028 USD) [1] Group 2: Historical Context - The social welfare measure was initially designed to encourage married women to spend more time at home, reflecting the societal norms of the time [1] - The reform is seen as a necessary step to adapt to changing economic conditions and labor market needs in Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in hotel prices in Japan is attributed to a surge in tourist numbers, inflation, and labor shortages, leading to a decline in service quality [1][7][10]. Group 1: Tourist Influx and Hotel Pricing - Japan's unique cultural appeal and favorable visa policies have led to a substantial increase in tourist arrivals, particularly with the upcoming 2025 Osaka Expo [1][2]. - The average hotel room rate in Osaka during peak tourist periods has risen by approximately 40% compared to the previous year, while Kyoto has seen a 20% increase [2]. - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative number of visitors to Japan reached 14.4466 million, with a projected annual total exceeding 40 million for the first time [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Operational Costs - Rising operational costs due to inflation have significantly impacted hotel pricing, with Japan's core CPI increasing by 3.8% year-on-year in April, surpassing the central bank's 2% target [7]. - The average hotel room rate in Japan has increased by about 40% compared to 2019, with current rates around 812 RMB per night [9]. Group 3: Labor Shortages and Service Quality - The hotel industry in Japan is facing severe labor shortages, exacerbated by an aging workforce, leading to reduced service offerings and quality [13][16]. - The average annual salary for hotel employees is approximately 179,000 RMB, which is significantly lower than other industries, making it difficult to attract skilled workers [16]. Group 4: Comparison with China's Hotel Market - In contrast, China's hotel market offers more competitive pricing and improved service quality, with average hotel rates in second and third-tier cities ranging from 300 to 600 RMB per night [17]. - The competitive nature of the domestic hotel industry in China has led to a focus on service quality and customer satisfaction, driving continuous improvements [19][20]. Group 5: Recommendations for Improvement - The Japanese hotel industry could benefit from adopting strategies seen in the Chinese market, such as increasing wages to attract talent and implementing standardized service training [21].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts, led by Kyohei Morita, believe that Japan's economy is unlikely to fall into recession despite potential economic slowdowns caused by U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is primarily driven by the service sector, which is expected to benefit from new stimulus measures through supplementary budgets [1] - Corporate investments in software and efforts to address labor shortages are anticipated to support Japan's economic growth [1] Risks and Challenges - The analysts caution that tariffs may exert "downward pressure" on Japan's economy from July to September [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to begin raising interest rates in January 2026, as indicated by the central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized readiness to continue rate hikes if the underlying inflation rate approaches the 2% target [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is undergoing an unprecedented structural transformation that is expected to reshape its economic landscape and present significant opportunities for investors [1] Group 1: Structural Transformation - Japan is experiencing a series of structural changes, including a shift towards an inflationary economy, reduced reliance on exchange rates, and accelerated corporate reforms, creating opportunities for investors to reassess the Japanese stock market [1][2] - The retirement of the baby boomer generation is leading to a structural labor shortage, driving Japan towards sustainable inflation [5][12] - The expected core CPI in Japan is projected to reach 1.9% in FY2025 and 2.1% in FY2026, indicating a healthy and sustainable inflation pattern [5] Group 2: Exchange Rate Dependency - The end of excessive yen depreciation is expected to improve trade conditions and enhance Return on Equity (ROE) [1][8] - Japanese companies are accelerating the relocation of production bases overseas and focusing on exporting high-quality products, which makes prices less sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations [8] Group 3: Corporate Reforms - The transition to an inflationary economy is acting as a catalyst for corporate reforms, with companies no longer able to justify hoarding cash that is depreciating [9][12] - Structural labor shortages are creating a demand for continuous wage increases, prompting companies to optimize pricing strategies and improve product and service quality [12] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange's regulatory measures are encouraging companies to be more proactive in stock buybacks, with buybacks increasing even amid weak earnings guidance [12][15] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Corporate reforms present three major themes for investors: 1. The separation of parent-subsidiary listings is accelerating, with returns of subsidiaries relative to parents increasing since 2024 [15] 2. Companies reducing strategic holdings tend to engage in more stock buybacks, indicating that such reductions can enhance capital efficiency [15] 3. The inflationary environment is expanding opportunities in real estate, particularly for companies holding non-core properties [15] Group 5: Political Risks - The upcoming Senate elections on July 20 pose a short-term risk, as historical data shows that markets tend to be cautious before elections and rebound afterward [16][17] - All major opposition parties plan to include consumption tax cuts in their election manifestos, which could increase the risk of rising interest rates [16]