Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Zinc: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content Core Views - The copper market lacks a clear main line, and it has to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. - The short - term trend of aluminum is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and there is a certain toughness relative to the aluminum price in the medium - term. Alumina is under pressure to oscillate but has limited downside space [2]. - The zinc market has an external - strong and internal - weak fundamental situation. Wait for the opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The downside space of lead is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [6]. - Tin is expected to be in an oscillatory market. Close high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. - After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the value of the game decreases. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon PS2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper oscillated and closed up at the MA60 moving - average line. The copper market lacks a clear main line, and it has to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate strongly. The spot discount in East China widened by 10 yuan to 50 yuan. The inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat compared to Monday, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of Baotai increased by 100 yuan to 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. In the medium - term, it has a certain toughness relative to the aluminum price [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. It is under pressure to oscillate but has limited downside space [2] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The LME zinc inventory continues to decline to 89,000 tons, and the SMM zinc social inventory has risen to 113,200 tons. The fundamental situation is external - strong and internal - weak. Wait for the opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Environmental inspections have affected the production of recycled lead in Anhui. The supply of lead ingots has large regional differences. The social inventory of lead has decreased by 180 tons to 71,100 tons. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [5] Nickel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The upstream price support has significantly weakened. The inventory of nickel iron is basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. It is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated with a decrease in positions during the session. It is expected to be in an oscillatory market. Pay attention to the change of high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plan of large factories and the off - season consumption. Close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with increased volume, and the market trading contracted. The total market inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. After the rebound, the value of the game decreases. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the spot manufacturers' quotes remained stable. The expected output in August will increase by about 21,700 - 31,700 tons. The downstream demand for polysilicon is expected to increase by about 11,800 - 12,100 tons, while the demand for silicone is expected to increase slightly. The supply pressure still exists. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, and pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly lower, and the trading sentiment declined marginally. The average price of SMM re - feed materials remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is mainly volatile, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price in the medium - term. Alumina is in an oversupply state and is under pressure to fluctuate [2]. - The zinc market has an outer - strong and inner - weak fundamental situation. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. - The Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. - The Shanghai tin is expected to be in a volatile market. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. - After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. - The industrial silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Detailed Summaries by Categories Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed up near the MA60 moving average. The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. The spot discount in East China widened by 10 yuan to 50 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory remained flat compared to Monday, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.9 tons. The peak inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - Casting aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price increased by 100 yuan to 19,800 yuan. The waste aluminum supply is tight, and the aluminum alloy industry profit is poor. In the medium - term, it has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity with AL [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. The anti - involution theme has led to sharp fluctuations in related varieties. The price of bauxite is firm during the overseas rainy season. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is relatively limited [2]. Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are positive. LME zinc inventory continues to decline to 89,000 tons, and SMM zinc social inventory has risen to 113,200 tons. The zinc spot import loss has widened to more than 1,600 yuan/ton. The outer market pulls the inner market up, and bulls return periodically. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Environmental inspections have affected the start - up of secondary lead production in Anhui. The supply of lead ingots has large regional differences. The SMM refined lead price remained flat. The average price of 1 lead has a real - time discount of 80 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The lead social inventory decreased by 0.18 tons to 71,100 tons. New orders of battery enterprises in August have improved. There are still regular maintenance plans for large primary lead smelters from late August to early September. Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The anti - involution theme in the domestic market is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. Nickel iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of inventory reduction. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a decrease in positions during the session, and it is expected to be in a volatile market. Overseas tin prices are supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, one should pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plans of large factories and weak consumption. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with increased trading volume, and market trading contracted. After the repeated price fluctuations, the futures and spot markets were unlocked, and a large amount of circulating goods began to enter the market. The downstream inquiry behavior was active, and the spot market trading improved. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious. The downstream increased the replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which clearly follows the decline of lithium carbonate prices. The smelting output decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up, and the spot manufacturers' quotations remained stable. On the supply side, according to SMM, the expected output of industrial silicon in August will increase by about 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Sichuan and Yunnan continue to increase the start - up rate, and large factories in Xinjiang also have复产 plans. The downstream polysilicon is expected to have an incremental demand of about 11,800 - 12,100 tons, while the large organic silicon accident factory is still in the process of resuming production, and the expected demand increase is not large. Therefore, the industrial silicon supply is under pressure. Currently, the futures price has corrected significantly, and affected by the expected supply policy of Xinjiang, it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly down, and the trading sentiment declined marginally. The average price of SMM re - feed material remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. The price and inventory transmission in the component link still have blockages, and the spot price increase of polysilicon is expected to be slow. Under the pattern of futures premium, the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 70 lots, but the total scale is still at a low level relative to the positions. The details of capacity storage have not been updated, and affected by policy regulation, the PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as tariffs, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic sentiment. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices declined on Thursday, breaking below the MA60 moving average. Trump excluded refined copper from import tariff hikes, mainly targeting copper processed products, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation. Hold short positions [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai Aluminum slightly corrected, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by over 10,000 tons compared to Monday, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. The position of Shanghai Aluminum continued to fall from a high to below 600,000 lots, and it may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai Aluminum, with a Baotai spot price of 19,600 yuan. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative, with short - term price pressure but some resilience in the medium term compared to aluminum prices. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the price difference on the futures market widens. Recently, the alumina price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, the operating capacity has reached a new high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. Participate in short positions near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - The macro - optimistic sentiment faded, and zinc trading returned to the fundamentals. Long positions continued to reduce, and the weighted position of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 9,725 lots to 214,000 lots. The SMM0 zinc was quoted at par with the near - month futures contract. After the sharp decline in zinc prices, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to fix prices at low points increased significantly, and the spot trading improved. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 103,200 tons. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and short - selling on rebounds is still the main strategy, but be vigilant against macro - economic fluctuations in the short term [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel fluctuated, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the anti - involution theme cooled down, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals may return to the fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,150 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 100 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened significantly. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Look for opportunities to short [7] Tin - Shanghai Tin declined and broke below the MA40 moving average. The current spot tin price is 265,500 yuan, with a real - time premium of 620 yuan over the delivery - month contract. It is expected that the tin price will decline towards the MA60 moving average and 262,000 yuan. Hold short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened lower and fluctuated, performing stronger than other anti - involution varieties, and the market trading was active. The platform price is 72,000 yuan, and there is a situation of high - price but no trading in the spot market. The total market inventory continued to rise to a recent high of 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 55,000 tons, the downstream inventory slightly increased by 1,600 tons to 43,000 tons, and the trader inventory continued to increase by 1,660 tons to 45,000 tons. Traders are positive, and the sentiment of bottom - fishing in the spot market continues. The latest price of Australian ore has rebounded significantly from a low. The mid - stream production is generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the lithium carbonate futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and there is still potential for theme - based trading. Try long positions with a light position in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - After the introduction of the position - limit policy for industrial silicon futures, the market declined with a reduction in positions. The silicon price has fluctuated sharply recently. The current multi - silicon market sentiment transmission effect has temporarily ended, and industrial silicon may gradually return to the fundamental - driven logic, continuing to fluctuate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined significantly with a reduction in positions under the position - limit policy. The average price of N - type dense material is 45,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type re -投料 is 46,500 yuan/ton. Supported by the full cost, the upward trend of the spot price is expected to stabilize gradually. In the future, the PS2509 main contract is affected by factors such as the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, regulatory control, and supply - demand contradictions. The support level is in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 55,000 yuan/ton. It is likely to fluctuate widely within the range, and there are still fluctuations under policy uncertainties. Pay attention to position control [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply during the session, closing up 0.43%. The spot price slightly declined, with electric carbon dropping by 200 to 72,950. The ore price remained flat. The production profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene decreased by 78 to 2,411 yuan/ton, and the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica narrowed by 186 to 6,782 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and the fundamentals are difficult to support the lithium carbonate price. Due to the market's enthusiasm for the anti - involution theme, the lithium carbonate price is more likely to rise than fall, and the support level for the futures price is around 68,000 [11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply, rising 0.43% at the close. After the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution again, the futures turned from rising to falling during the session, with the lowest point at 68,500, but rebounded at the end of the session. The spot price slightly declined, and the current spot price is still at a premium to the futures. The production profit of spodumene - based salt plants decreased, and the production loss of mica - based salt plants narrowed. The supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and the price is supported at around 68,000 [11]. 2. Industry News - Super - battery Group's "Yuanwang Energy Storage Technology Agricultural Photovoltaic Complementary 46MW/92.16MWh Lead - Carbon Energy Storage Project" started in Tai'an, Shandong [14]. - LG Energy Solution won a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery supply project worth about 43 billion US dollars (5.9442 trillion won), accounting for 23.2% of its 2024 annual sales. The contract will take effect on August 1, 2025, with a term of three years and can be extended [14]. - Sungrow signed a cooperation agreement with European energy storage solution provider SUNOTEC to provide 2.4GWh of battery energy storage systems for its European solar projects, with the first batch of projects in Bulgaria, etc., which will accelerate the intelligent upgrade of the regional power system [13][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively neutral stance with poor operability [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish bias but limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] Core Views - The market is closely watching the implementation of US tariff agreements with Europe and China, the Fed meeting, and a series of real - economy indicators. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market closed lower on Wednesday, and attention is paid to the support of the MA40 moving average. The decline in copper prices may reach the MA60 moving average, and short positions should be held against the integer - level resistance [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The off - season demand decline led to inventory accumulation, and the apparent consumption decreased significantly year - on - year. The upper resistance is at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the aluminum market, and the scrap aluminum market had tight supply. The profit of aluminum alloy was negative, with short - term price pressure but medium - term resilience. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy when the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina prices rose sharply, with increased industry profits, record - high operating capacity, and excess inventory. It is recommended to short against the recent high of 3500 yuan [2] Zinc - There is a stalemate between bulls and bears near the support level of 22,500 yuan/ton. The market is waiting for the result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. The TC continued to rise in August, and there is still room to short the mine's profit on the futures market. Adopt a mid - term short - on - rebound strategy and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental may return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel - iron decreased by 4300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the day. The long - term supply expectation from the mining end may suppress tin prices at high levels. In August, the supply and demand sides continued to compete, and the increase in domestic social inventory is expected to be limited. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and then fluctuated sharply. The total market inventory continued to rise to 143,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream was generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and short - term light - position long positions can be tried [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, mainly affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply increased slightly in most regions except Xinjiang, and the demand decreased due to an incident in the organic silicon DMC industry. The price is at a historical low, and it is recommended to take light - position long positions [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed sharply higher again. Although the news of capacity acquisition was false, it still boosted market sentiment. The factory inventory continued to decline, and there is an expectation of transfer to warehouse receipts. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and be cautious about short - selling unilaterally [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - Market sentiment is cautious due to uncertainties such as US copper import tariffs and the performance of various metals in different supply - demand situations. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on short - term and medium - term trends, with a focus on supply, demand, inventory, and price resistance levels [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper oscillating lower. The market awaits the implementation of US copper import tariffs. A decline in copper prices may reach the MA60 moving average. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average. Hold short positions near the integer level [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly. Seasonal demand decline led to a 3.5 - million - ton increase in aluminum ingot social inventory in the past week. The upper resistance is at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's oscillation, with short - term pressure but medium - term resilience. Consider a long - AD short - AL strategy when the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina prices have risen, but the market is in surplus. Trade alumina short near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [2] Zinc - Black metal prices stopped falling and rebounded, causing an uneven adjustment in zinc prices. With increasing supply and weak demand, zinc social inventory is rising. The market shows a split between macro, capital, and fundamentals. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and wait for clear signals [3] Lead - With a weak supply - demand situation, lead's rebound is slow. The upper resistance is at the 20 - day moving average. Supply pressure eases slightly, and the price shows support at 16,800 yuan/ton. Due to consumption concerns, the traditional peak - season performance needs verification. Lightly go long based on cost [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillates. After the hype of anti - involution题材, nickel may return to its fundamentals. Nickel iron inventory decreased, while pure nickel and stainless - steel inventories changed. Wait for short - selling opportunities [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated lower, with short - term support at 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillates. Market rumors suggest some mines in Jiangxi have resumed production. Total inventory is at a recent high. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range. Try a short - term long position with a light position [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly. Spot prices are falling. Although the fundamentals are weak, with increasing production capacity in some areas and decreased demand for organic silicon DMC, the price is at a historical low. Consider a short - term long position with a light position [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose significantly. Spot prices are in a certain range. The supply - demand is in a tight balance. After a sharp rise, the market is in a wide - range shock. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices and control positions [10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.68% to close at 25,562.13 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.24% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 250.3 billion HKD [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - China National Pharmaceutical (01177) led blue-chip stocks with a 7.09% increase, closing at 7.25 HKD, contributing 7.74 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable performers included Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) up 5.83% and CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093) up 5.45% [2] Sector Highlights - The innovative drug sector saw significant gains, with Hengrui Medicine (01276) surging by 24.54% after announcing a collaboration with GSK worth up to 12.5 billion USD [3][4] - Insurance stocks also performed well, with AIA Group (01299) rising by 4.96% following a reduction in the preset interest rates for life insurance products [4][5] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, 2025, with initial licenses to be granted to a limited number of applicants [6] - The regulation aims to enhance compliance and support the development of the stablecoin industry [6] Commodity Market Impact - The commodity futures market saw significant declines, with major products like coking coal and glass dropping by 11% and 9% respectively, attributed to regulatory limits on trading [7] Notable Stock Movements - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) rose by 13.32% after the release of a draft regulation on the domestic duty-free tobacco market [8] - CATL (300750) reached a new high, increasing by 6.24%, with expectations of strong revenue growth in the upcoming earnings report [9] - China Duty Free Group (601888) fell by 5.55% after reporting a 9.96% decline in total revenue for the first half of 2025 [10]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: July 25, 2025 - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Futures Market Conditions - SR509 closed at 5866 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.69%, with an increase of 9969 contracts in open interest [7]. - SR601 closed at 5668 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.32%, with an increase of 7680 contracts in open interest [7]. - US Sugar 10 closed at 16.27 cents/pound, down 0.01 cents or -0.06%, with an increase of 4799 contracts in open interest [7]. - US Sugar 03 closed at 16.91 cents/pound, up 0.01 cents or 0.06%, with an increase of 2469 contracts in open interest [7]. Market Trends - On Wednesday, New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The main October contract closed down 0.06% to 16.27 cents/pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed down 0.2% to $471.40/ton. There were rumors that India might allow new - season sugar exports due to a bumper new - season sugarcane crop, which affected raw sugar prices. However, the current market sugar price is not high enough to support Indian exports [7]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed up in a fluctuating manner. The 09 contract closed at 5866 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.69%, and the open interest increased by 9969 contracts. The spot prices in domestic producing areas slightly decreased. The price of Nanning sugar was 6070 yuan, and that of Kunming sugar was 5860 yuan. Recently, the domestic commodity market rose generally due to the anti - involution theme, and Zhengzhou sugar was slightly affected, showing a stronger trend than raw sugar [8]. 3. Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall, confirming a recent statement by President Donald Trump [11]. - The European crop monitoring agency MARS lowered the 2025 EU sugar beet yield forecast to 74.8 tons per hectare, down from last month's forecast of 76.3 tons per hectare, but still 2% higher than the average of the past five years [11]. - In June 2025, China imported a total of 11.55 tons of syrup and premixed powder (tax codes 1702.90, 2106.906), a year - on - year decrease of 10.35 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 45.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.24 tons. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the total import was 109.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.95 tons [11]. - In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39.23 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 105.08 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 25.12 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 251.26 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 64.93 tons, a decline of 20.54% [11]. - In June 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.546 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%; from January to June, it was 14.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. In June 2025, China's beverage output was 18.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to June, it was 93.089 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [11]. 4. Data Overview Trading Volume and Open Interest of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar's Main Contract - The total trading volume was 332,449 lots, an increase of 87,359 lots. The total long - position volume was 250,320 lots, an increase of 8,473 lots. The total short - position volume was 237,085 lots, an increase of 7,251 lots [24]. - Among them, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest trading volume of 76,875 lots, an increase of 24,293 lots; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest long - position volume of 76,332 lots, an increase of 3,151 lots; COFCO Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest short - position volume of 54,245 lots, an increase of 3,136 lots [24].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes** - SR509 closed at 5834 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 332,040 contracts, a decrease of 2,120 contracts [7] - SR601 closed at 5656 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 126,227 contracts, an increase of 2,396 contracts [7] - ICE US Sugar 11 Oct closed at 16.26 cents/lb, down 0.11 cents or 0.67%, with a position of 392,620 contracts, a decrease of 4,151 contracts [7] - ICE US Sugar 11 Mar closed at 16.88 cents/lb, down 0.15 cents or 0.88%, with a position of 215,397 contracts, a decrease of 1,492 contracts [7] - **Market Analysis** - New York raw sugar futures trended weaker on Tuesday. The market rumor that India may allow new - season sugar exports due to a bumper cane crop affected the raw sugar price, but the current low price is not enough to support Indian exports [7] - Zhengzhou sugar futures' main contract closed higher. Recently, the domestic commodity market rose due to the "anti - involution" theme, and Zhengzhou sugar was slightly affected, showing a stronger trend than raw sugar. In the third quarter, the supply of refined sugar will gradually increase, which will suppress the domestic sugar price [8] Group 3: Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall [11] - The European Union's crop monitoring agency MARS lowered its 2025 sugar beet yield forecast to 74.8 tons per hectare from 76.3 tons last month, but it is still 2% higher than the five - year average [11] - In June 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons. From the 2024/25 sugar season to June, the total import was 1,098,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 269,500 tons [11] - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 1,050,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 251,200 tons or 19.29%. From the 2024/25 sugar season to June, the total import was 2,512,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 649,300 tons or 20.54% [11] - In June 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.546 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. From January to June, the total output was 14.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [11] - In June 2025, China's beverage output was 18.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to June, the total output was 93.089 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [11] Group 4: Data Overview - **Transaction and Position Data of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar Futures' Main Contract** - Dongzheng Futures (for clients) had the highest trading volume of 52,582 lots, an increase of 3,443 lots [22] - CITIC Futures (for clients) had the highest long position of 73,181 contracts, an increase of 1,840 contracts [22] - COFCO Futures (for clients) had the highest short position of 51,109 contracts, an increase of 1,037 contracts [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with general spot trading and downstream demand mainly for immediate needs. In the industrial chain, ore prices declined slightly, freight rates remained firm due to insufficient capacity, and ferronickel prices were weak, leading to a downward shift in the cost line. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season in July and August, with still poor demand, but inventory decreased slightly this week. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, which is beneficial for nickel demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2508 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: Spot stainless steel prices rose. In the short term, nickel ore prices declined slightly, freight rates were firm, and ferronickel prices were weak, so the cost line may continue to shift downward. Stainless steel consumption has entered the off - season. The contract 不锈钢2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Price and Inventory - **Price**: On July 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,500 yuan, up 1,050 yuan from July 17; the price of 1金川 nickel was 122,450 yuan, up 950 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 120,800 yuan, up 1,000 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 120,000 yuan, up 1,000 yuan. The price of 沪镍主力 was 120,500 yuan, up 620 yuan; the price of 伦镍电 was 15,245 dollars, up 180 dollars [11]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the LME nickel inventory was 207,576 tons, an increase of 294 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 21,560 tons, an increase of 602 tons. The total inventory was 229,136 tons, an increase of 896 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Inventory - **Price**: On July 18, the average price of stainless steel was 13,500 yuan, up 100 yuan from July 17. The price of 不锈钢主力 was 12,725 yuan, down 5 yuan [11]. - **Inventory**: On July 18, the inventory in Wuxi was 62,470 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 340,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,147,800 tons, a decrease of 197,000 tons from the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 687,500 tons, a decrease of 74,000 tons. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 103,599 tons, a decrease of 6,973 tons [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Price - **Nickel Ore**: On July 18, the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58.5 dollars per wet ton, unchanged from July 17; the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 30 dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 dollars per ton, unchanged; the freight from the Philippines to Tianjin Port was 12.5 dollars per ton, unchanged [22]. - **Ferronickel**: On July 18, the price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 900 yuan per nickel point, unchanged from July 17; the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,200 yuan per ton, unchanged [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - On July 18, the traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,689 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,308 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel ferronickel + pure nickel was 16,463 yuan [24]. Factors Affecting Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Likely Positive Factors**: Good production and sales data of new energy vehicles in June and the anti - involution policy [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new growth points in demand, and a long - term oversupply pattern; stainless steel warehouse receipts flowing into the spot market, increasing supply pressure; the loosening of ore prices and the stable - to - decreasing ferronickel prices, leading to a downward shift in the cost line [6].