Core Insights - Zhang Teng, a fund manager at Yinhua Fund, has achieved impressive returns in traditional sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, contrasting with the market's focus on AI and semiconductors [1][3] - His fund, Yinhua Ruihe Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, reported a year-to-date net value growth rate of 29.69% and a one-year growth rate of 45.77%, significantly outperforming its benchmark [1] Investment Philosophy - Zhang Teng's investment approach evolved from being a "track-type" investor to a "systematic" investor, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in changing market conditions [3][7] - He developed a framework based on "slow variables" and "anti-fragility," allowing him to navigate market cycles and avoid the pitfalls of extreme concentration in investments [6][7] Market Trends and Opportunities - The "carbon neutrality" trend provided a testing ground for Zhang's new investment system, where he identified the value of traditional energy sources like coal as scarce assets during the energy transition [8][9] - Currently, Zhang is focusing on the "anti-involution" trend, which he believes will reshape certain industry ecosystems in China, seeking opportunities in sectors with inherent anti-involution demands [11][12] Sector Focus - Zhang's analysis of the chemical and non-ferrous sectors reveals a strategic approach to identifying investment opportunities based on industry profit distribution and market dynamics [12][13] - He emphasizes a diversified portfolio within the non-ferrous sector to capture various market drivers while adhering to his principles of "slow variables" and "anti-fragility" [13]

外界试图用"周期猎手"这样的标签来定义他，但这远不足以概括他投资世界的核心。 要真正理解张腾，我们需要回到故事的起点，探寻他投资操作系统的迭代之路——那是一段从极致锐度走向"反脆弱"的突围，一个曾经的赛道选手在市场的熔炉中 重构自我的故事。 当喧嚣点燃盛夏的A股舞池，聚光灯之外，总有一些人选择跳自己的舞步。 银华基金的张腾，就是这样一个"另类舞者"。当市场的目光都聚焦于AI、半导体、创新药的星辰大海时，他却在有色、化工这些看似传统的领域，踩出了令人惊叹 的节拍。 银河证券数据显示，截至2025年8月15日，张腾管理的银华瑞和灵活配置混合基金（005544）年内净值增长率29.69%（业绩比较基准3.96%），过去一年净值增长率 45.77%（业绩比较基准15.23%），在415只同类型基金中排名84。 （业绩数据来源：经托管行复核；排名数据来源：银河证券，过去一年指2024.8.16-2025.8.15；同 类型指灵活配置型基金A类） 进化：从赛道选手到反脆弱投资 学生时期，张腾是一个不折不扣的学霸，他曾在高中时期摘得全国物理竞赛一等奖，并因此保送清华大学热能工程系，同时还拿下了巴黎高科国际能源专业的管理 学 ...

在波动的资本市场中，银华瑞和的基金经理张腾以其独特的能源视角与宏观框架，走出了一条与众不同 的周期投资之路。 他不是传统意义上的"价值派"，也非单纯追逐热点的"成长型选手"，而是一位深谙产业底层逻辑、善于 在不确定性中捕捉确定性的"反脆弱"实践者。 从碳中和时代的煤炭布局，到"反内卷"背景下的有色崛起，张腾用扎实的宏观推演与产业深耕，证明了 周期投资可以做到高胜率，价值投资也可以具有高弹性。 在碳中和与"反内卷"交织的新环境下，他将凭借对能源格局的深刻理解、对宏观慢变量的敏锐洞察以及 成熟分散的对冲体系，在周期浪潮中为投资者捕捉那些真正的结构性机会。 张腾，硕士研究生。曾就职于上海申银万国研究所、中邮创业基金管理股份有限公司，2023年7月加入 银华基金，现任权益投资管理部基金经理/投资经理助理（社保、基本养老）。 周期股投资的弹性哲学 这一反思直接催生了张腾独特的"反脆弱"投资框架。在这一体系中，他首要坚持的是行业分散原 则："在行业的选择上，我一般会有5个主要持仓方向，即便是自己最看好的方向，也不会过度集 中。"这并非无目的的分散，而是在深度聚焦自身能力圈的基础上，通过跨行业配置降低单一风险。更 重要的是 ...

这种从"变量"到"机会"的推演能力，使他的周期投资呈现出较强的进攻性。他强调，很多人对价值存在 认知偏差——"大家给价值贴的标签就是没什么弹性"。但事实上，在他重点布局的有色、化工、钢铁等 板块中，"也有很多短期弹性比较大的标的"。他以碳中和行情中的周期品种、地缘冲突背景中的传统能 源股为例，这些机会不仅具备价值属性，同样可以带来显著超额收益："并不是因为做价值投资就丧失 了整个组合的弹性。"他管理的基金业绩也印证了这一点，截至2025年8月15日，银华瑞和灵活配置混合 基金（005544）今年以来净值增长率29.69%（业绩比较基准3.96%），过去一年净值增长率45.77%（业 绩比较基准15.23%），在同类型基金中排名84/415。 张腾，硕士研究生。曾就职于上海申银万国研究所、中邮创业基金管理股份有限公司，2023年7月加 入银华基金，现任权益投资管理部基金经理/投资经理助理（社保、基本养老）。 真正让张腾区别于传统周期股投资选手的，是他将宏观思维嵌入产业研究中，形成多维度、长周期的决 策框架，从而在周期轮动中实现更早的布局与切换。 在波谲云诡的资本市场中，银华瑞和的基金经理张腾以其独特的能源视角与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a "anti-fragile" investment portfolio that prioritizes long-term stability over short-term high performance, as articulated by Zhang Teng, the fund manager of Yinhua Ruihe [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Zhang Teng advocates for a focus on "slow variables" that have long-term impacts, aiming to maintain an "anti-fragile" portfolio that sacrifices some flexibility for steady net value growth [4][5]. - The investment approach contrasts "track-type" investment, which seeks high concentration in specific sectors and stocks, with "anti-fragile" investment that emphasizes diversification and risk control [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Process - Zhang has developed a unique "anti-fragile" investment process that includes top-down market style assessment, selection of cyclical stocks based on dividend yield or elasticity, and continuous tracking of sector-specific drivers [6]. - The investment style incorporates a broader definition of "value," recognizing that traditional dichotomies between value and growth do not fully capture the investment strategy [6]. Group 3: Fund Performance - As of August 15, 2025, the Yinhua Ruihe Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund (005544) has achieved a year-to-date net value growth rate of 29.69%, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 3.96% [7]. - Over the past year, the fund's net value growth rate reached 45.77%, compared to a benchmark of 15.23%, ranking 84 out of 415 in its category [7]. Group 4: Market Trends and Opportunities - The article discusses the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to regulate low-price competition and enhance product quality, creating investment opportunities in various sectors, particularly in metals and chemicals [8][9]. - Zhang Teng identifies the non-ferrous metals sector as having high certainty for investment, especially as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, which historically precedes a recovery in industrial metal demand [10].

Core Viewpoints - Understanding fragility is essential to comprehend the concept of anti-fragility, where certain systems become stronger and benefit from shocks and volatility [4][40]. - The current economic environment is characterized by high uncertainty, and the best strategy is to remain cautious and observe before making investment decisions [140][149]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, where 80% of assets are placed in extremely safe investments, while the remaining 20% is allocated to high-risk opportunities [9][123]. - Traditional diversification may not effectively hedge risks due to changing correlations between assets, making it unreliable [120][121]. - The importance of recognizing hidden risks in seemingly stable investments is emphasized, as these can lead to significant losses during extreme events [81][86]. Group 2: Economic Observations - The U.S. faces increasing vulnerability due to high debt levels and a lack of growth potential, which could lead to stagnation or regression [76][127]. - In contrast, China is viewed as having greater resilience and potential for growth, with a strong capacity to rebound from economic shocks [11][150][155]. - The current global economic landscape is marked by a shift towards "de-dollarization," with investors increasingly turning to gold and other hard assets as a hedge against uncertainty [104][108]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The interconnectedness of global supply chains has heightened vulnerability, where disruptions in one area can have widespread economic impacts [65][66]. - The concept of "black swan" events highlights the unpredictability of significant market shifts, necessitating a focus on risk management and preparedness [95][100]. - The rise of AI introduces further uncertainty in the market, as its long-term effects on employment and economic structures remain unclear [133][140].

Core Insights - Nassim Nicholas Taleb emphasizes that traditional financial models are flawed as they assume a stable and predictable world, while reality is often volatile and non-linear [1] - Taleb introduces the concept of a "barbell strategy," suggesting that investors should allocate 80% of their portfolio to extremely safe assets and 20% to high-risk investments, rather than creating a balanced medium-risk portfolio [1] Summary by Sections - **Taleb's Theories**: Taleb's theories are rooted in practical trading experience, highlighting the importance of understanding true fragility and the characteristics of anti-fragility [1] - **Critique of Diversification**: The article critiques the common belief in diversification, stating that during stress tests, correlations can change and lead to synchronized risks, undermining the perceived safety of diversified portfolios [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The recommended "barbell strategy" is presented as a more effective approach to risk management, focusing on safety and high-risk opportunities [1]

Core Insights - The concept of "fragility" and "antifragility" is crucial for understanding how systems respond to shocks, with antifragile systems benefiting from volatility [2][4][32] - Gold is identified as a key asset that can benefit from uncertainty in the current economic climate [2][94][96] - The current U.S. tariff policies are seen as exacerbating systemic fragility, particularly in the context of high debt and inflation [5][120] Group 1: Fragility and Antifragility - Traditional financial models assume a stable and predictable world, which is often not the case, leading to hidden fragility in diversified portfolios [4][12][111] - The "barbell strategy" is proposed as a better investment approach, allocating 80% to extremely safe assets and 20% to high-risk investments [4][78][115] - Fragile systems experience accelerated losses under stress, while antifragile systems can thrive and grow stronger from shocks [30][41][52] Group 2: Economic Context - The interconnectedness of the global economy has increased the impact of localized shocks, making systems more fragile [56][58] - Current high levels of debt in developed economies like the U.S. and Europe contribute to their fragility, limiting growth potential [64][66][120] - China is viewed as having a stronger "convexity," meaning it can rebound more effectively from shocks due to its systemic advantages in research, manufacturing, and diplomacy [6][108][141] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to be cautious and to avoid structures that appear stable but may hide significant risks, such as those seen in "generalized Bob Rubin trades" [70][74][81] - The importance of hard stop-loss strategies is emphasized over traditional risk management models that rely on normal distribution assumptions [78][79] - The current economic environment is characterized by high uncertainty, making a conservative approach preferable for investors [131][140]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Overview - The A-share market saw significant gains in July, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices rising by 5.26% and 8.14% respectively, while the Wind Micro Index increased by nearly 8.78% [2] - The central bank's net fund injection in July was 268 billion yuan, maintaining stable liquidity, with the rate gradually falling to around 1.55% by the end of the month [2] - The dollar index showed a slight increase, closing at 100.05 on July 31, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 3.39%, while the yuan depreciated by 0.73% during the same period [2][27] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Insights - As of August 1, the bond market vitality index rose by 13 percentage points to 49%, indicating increased trading activity [3][28] - Fund buying sentiment has become more cautious, with net buying intensity in the bond market led by foreign institutions and other product categories [3][28] - The growth of wealth management products in July was significantly weaker than seasonal trends, with an actual increase of only 274.1 billion yuan compared to an expected 1.87 trillion yuan [3][28] Group 3: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - The motorcycle export market presents three unique attributes: overseas sales potential is over ten times that of the domestic market, with key markets being Europe and Latin America, while the U.S. accounts for less than 1% of global capacity [7][35] - The global market for 250cc+ motorcycles is approximately 3.6 million units, with the overseas market space being nearly ten times that of the domestic market, focusing on Europe and Latin America [7][35] - In the European market, the motorcycle market size is about 1.84 million units, with a significant preference for high-displacement models, providing an opportunity for Chinese brands to expand their market share [7][36] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - Recent events, including a downward revision of U.S. non-farm payrolls and personnel changes within the Federal Reserve, are expected to drive gold prices upward [19] - The downward revision of non-farm employment data indicates a weakening economic backdrop, which raises expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold's financial attributes [19] - The potential for a shift in U.S. monetary policy due to recent personnel changes could further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [19]

导读：最近有幸去了一次新加坡，参加了诺亚方舟全球华人财富管理与传承峰会， 其中收获最大的是现场聆听塔勒布老师和诺亚控股CEO殷哲对 话。 我个人一直是塔勒布老师的粉丝，他也在母校纽约大学担任教授。塔勒布老师的黑天鹅和反脆弱理念，不仅对投资有很重要的影响，其实人生也需 要建立反脆弱体系。在此次对话中，塔勒布老师不仅重新阐述了反脆弱和黑天鹅的重要性，也提出了他对当前世界的全新观点。 我自己做了一些个人的小结纪要，希望给大家带来帮助！ 什么是黑天鹅和反脆弱 黑天鹅事件有三个特点：稀有性、极大的冲击性、事后可预测性。黑天鹅的逻辑是，你不知道的东西，比你知道的更重要（what you don't know is far more important than what you do know）。 当信息传递开始加速后，极少数的事件、催化剂，会产生极其严重的影响。 脆弱性的对立面，不是韧性，而是反脆弱。脆弱性和波动性有关。当塔勒布还是一名期权交易员时，他发现当波动性变大后，做空获得的收益也是 几何倍数的增加。这就像跳高，10次从1米平台跳下去受到的伤害，远小于1次从10米平台跳下去。 脆弱性有二阶导数效应，任何脆弱性的东 ...