远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 2025 年的 A 股市场，在 DeepSeek 的技术突围中开局，又在摩尔线程和沐曦科技的翻倍狂潮里走向尾声。尽管关于 "AI 泡沫 " 的争议从下半年开始此起彼 伏，但谁都无法否认： 科技始终是市场最滚烫的主线。 以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者周曼 不拥抱科技就等于错过了一个时代的焦虑背后，有个巨大的视角错位 —— 只看成长倍数不看回撤幅度，在大多数时候是一种非常一级的叙事，但在今天的科 技浪潮里，已经逐渐蔓延到二级市场的投资中。 霍华德 · 马克斯在 2025 年 12 月最新的备忘录《 AI 泡沫？》中，展示了这种 "VC 式回报 " 的诱惑：一个 AI 初创公司，即便只有 千分之一 的概率成长为一 个万亿美元市值的公司，在它刚成立的时候就去投资它，预期回报就能超过投资金额的八倍。 但是，相比蒙着眼睛十年之后才开始算回报率的一级基金，二级市场每个交易日都有直接的净值波动，优胜劣汰的速度、逆人性的程度都极其残酷。倾其所 有押注 VC 式回报的投资，常常会变成净值曲线上一个巨大的过山车轨道。 因此，比起一级投资者们乐观地相信 " 三年之内无泡沫 " ，对于大多数二级 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 因此，比起一级投资者们乐观地相信"三年之内无泡沫"，对于大多数二级市场的参与者而言，马克斯这 期备忘录的尾声更为切中肯綮： "没有人能断言这是否为泡沫，因此我建议任何人都不应孤注一掷，必须认识到若事态恶化，将面临破 产风险。但同样地，也不应完全置身事外，以免错失这一史上重大技术进步所带来的机遇。适度的仓 位，辅以甄选和谨慎，似乎是最佳之道。" 实际上，他笔下的"适度仓位"与"谨慎甄选"，翻译成聪明钱的战术配置，就是四个字——杠铃策略。 杠杆的两头 杠铃策略在今天的资管行业并不是一个陌生的词汇。 2025 年的A 股市场，在 DeepSeek 的技术突围中开局，又在摩尔线程和沐曦科技的翻倍狂潮里走向尾 声。尽管关于"AI 泡沫"的争议从下半年开始此起彼伏，但谁都无法否认：科技始终是市场最滚烫的主 线。 不拥抱科技就等于错过了一个时代的焦虑背后，有个巨大的视角错位——只看成长倍数不看回撤幅度， 在大多数时候是一种非常一级的叙事，但在今天的科技浪潮里，已经逐渐蔓延到二级市场的投资中。 霍华德·马克斯在 2025 年 12 月最新的备忘录《 A ...

但是，相比蒙着眼睛十年之后才开始算回报率的一级基金，二级市场每个交易日都有直接的净值波动，优胜劣汰的速度、逆人性的程度都极其残酷。倾其所 有押注 VC 式回报的投资，常常会变成净值曲线上一个巨大的过山车轨道。 因此，比起一级投资者们乐观地相信 " 三年之内无泡沫 " ，对于大多数二级市场的参与者而言，马克斯这期备忘录的尾声更为切中肯綮： " 没有人能断言这是否为泡沫，因此我建议任何人都 不应孤注一掷 ，必须认识到若事态恶化，将面临破产风险。但同样地，也 不应完全置身事外 ，以免错 失这一史上重大技术进步所带来的机遇。适度的仓位，辅以甄选和谨慎，似乎是最佳之道。 " 实际上，他笔下的 " 适度仓位 " 与 " 谨慎甄选 " ，翻译成聪明钱的战术配置，就是四个字 —— 杠铃策略 。 杠杆的两头 杠铃策略在今天的资管行业并不是一个陌生的词汇。 2020 年以后，全球市场经历了一连串由黑天鹅引发的剧烈震荡。在这些不确定性的冲击下，市场主流的投资信仰也发生着微妙的偏移： 从巴菲特式的 " 价 值坚守 " ，悄然转向了塔勒布式的 " 反脆弱 " 。 2025 年的 A 股市场，在 DeepSeek 的技术突围中开局，又在 ...

你的下一台 特斯拉 可能連一顆 中國製造的 螺絲釘都沒有了！ 這不是開玩笑 華爾街日報 已經爆料 特斯拉對供應商 下了死命令 把中國製造清零！ 為什麼這麼急？ 看看現在是 2025 年底 川普政府的關稅 簡直是地獄級 有些關鍵材料稅率 甚至高達 145%！ 這已經不是 成本問題 而是這輛車 還能不能在美國 賣的生死問題！ 很多人擔心 要完了 那便宜好用的 中國電池怎麼辦？ 特斯拉成本 會不會原地爆炸？ 把心放在肚子吧 當通用汽車 還在焦頭爛額 的發通知時候 馬斯克早就在 內華達的沙漠裡 佈好了局！ 2026 年 特斯拉自己的 電池工廠就要 大規模量產 這才是老馬 最恐怖的地方 他利用這場 貿易危機 硬生生給自己 挖了一條護城河！ 這不叫被逼無奈 這在商業戰略上 叫做「反脆弱」！. ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the scale of secondary bond funds, with a growth of 374.7 billion units in Q3, representing a 56.9% increase. This trend indicates that many investors are entering the market through "fixed income+" products [1]. Group 1: Fund Growth Characteristics - Traditional large firms and emerging players are both experiencing growth. For instance, E Fund's secondary bond fund size increased from 98.8 billion to 128 billion, a rise of 29.2 billion. Meanwhile, new players like China Europe Fund and Yongying Fund also saw their secondary bond fund sizes grow by approximately 29 billion each in Q3 [2]. - There is a parallel growth in low-volatility and high-volatility "fixed income+" products. E Fund had three funds with growth exceeding 5 billion, including E Fund Stable Income and E Fund Yu Xiang Return, which saw increases of 9.9 billion and 5.9 billion respectively [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting large firms for investment in secondary bond funds due to their superior risk control and professional talent pool. E Fund, for example, has a well-established team of experienced fund managers and has been a pioneer in multi-asset teams [4]. - A notable portion of the increased fund size is attributed to institutional investments, with over 90% of E Fund Yu Xin being held by institutions as of the second quarter [5]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy of Fund Managers - The investment philosophy of fund manager Hu Wenbo is characterized by two main principles: belief in mean reversion and the construction of a "anti-fragile" portfolio. This approach allows for potential gains to outweigh losses in volatile market conditions [6][13]. - Hu Wenbo's strategy includes increasing the allocation to convertible bonds, which rose from 8.4% to 14.82% in Q1 2024, and maintaining a high allocation of over 40% in subsequent quarters, contributing to the fund's strong performance [10][15]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - Under Hu Wenbo's guidance, E Fund Yu Xin achieved a return of 20.52% over the past year, ranking in the top 4% of its category, and a return of 17.44% year-to-date, also placing it in the top 4% [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift from high growth to resilience in Chinese enterprises, highlighting the importance of "antifragility" in navigating uncertainties and challenges in the current economic landscape [2][3][20] Group 1: Understanding Antifragility - Antifragility refers to the ability of organizations to become stronger in the face of adversity, allowing them to maintain good coordination in supply chains, society, and capital during crises [2] - The concept of "creative destruction" by economist Joseph Schumpeter is referenced, indicating that economic innovation disrupts old orders and creates new structures [2] Group 2: The Role of ESG - ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) is presented as a crucial framework for building resilience in modern enterprises, enabling them to withstand various pressures such as climate change and social inequality [3][4] - ESG is not merely an accessory but a systematic approach that transforms companies into "evergreen" entities capable of enduring changes and cycles [4] Group 3: Investor Interest in ESG - Investors are increasingly focused on ESG for three main reasons: 1. High ESG ratings reflect overall corporate strength and can lead to improved internal consensus and management practices [7] 2. Strong ESG performance reduces risks for investors by signaling effective risk management and avoiding potential financial scandals [7] 3. Companies with good ESG practices tend to provide stable returns, as they are better positioned to manage resources and relationships during market fluctuations [7] Group 4: ESG Dimensions - The environmental dimension (E) involves proactive measures against climate risks, such as Shell's use of TCFD for predicting carbon price impacts [8] - The social dimension (S) focuses on building public trust, which acts as a buffer during crises, as evidenced by Japanese companies' performance post-Fukushima [8] - The governance dimension (G) emphasizes the integration of ESG into strategic planning and risk management, enhancing the organization's ability to respond to external crises [9] Group 5: Case Study - China Ping An - China Ping An exemplifies effective ESG implementation, achieving a top MSCI ESG rating and significant profit growth, demonstrating the link between ESG strategy and business performance [11][17] - The company has developed a comprehensive ESG strategy that includes green investments and innovative insurance products aligned with national carbon goals [13][18] - Ping An's governance structure supports rapid decision-making and transparency, enhancing investor trust and confidence [16][19] Group 6: Future Implications of ESG - The article concludes that ESG will become a fundamental requirement for companies, shifting the focus from mere profit to resilience and sustainable practices [20] - Companies that deeply integrate ESG into their strategies will build structural advantages that are difficult to disrupt, ensuring long-term success [20]

#读书我没有读过《反脆弱》这本书，实际上我没有读过塔勒布，呃我平均一年也读不了一本书。可能这些年一直听过细碎的片段，或者演化后的表达，我对这篇读后感感到很熟悉。甚至不能说熟悉。这篇经验里的很多观点，就是我自己的投资内核，我自己实战和复盘后的精神财富。越是如此，越不想读。有一种怕见大师，又怕露怯的局促和别扭感。拖延症和完美主义者应该能 get。𝙃𝘼𝙕𝙀𝙉𝙇𝙀𝙀 (@HAZENLEE_):转我用了三年才真正看懂《反脆弱》。第一次读的时候，觉得塔勒布在卖弄——一个交易员写这么厚一本书讲哲学，还动不动骂经济学家和银行家。但三年后再翻，我发现他说的每一句话都是对的，只是我当时没资格懂。这本书最狠辣的地方，是它揭穿了现代生活最大的谎言：稳定。 https://t.co/fNlGNzBQLW ...

Core Viewpoint - In the current market environment, companies need to possess the ability to cope with uncertainties, with Domino's Pizza showcasing strong resilience and growth despite challenges [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Domino's Pizza reported a 6.2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching $1.15 billion, with same-store sales growth of 5.2% in the U.S. and 1.7% internationally [1]. - The company's operating profit increased by 12.2% year-on-year, with net profit reaching $139 million, demonstrating operational resilience in a complex environment [1]. Group 2: Store Expansion Strategy - Domino's China, through its exclusive franchisee, achieved a net addition of 275 stores in Q3 2025, operating a total of 1,283 stores across 51 cities in mainland China [2]. - The company met its target of opening 300 new stores for the entire year, with a steady increase in same-store sales across both group and first-tier cities [2]. - Historical data shows a consistent increase in net new stores from 120 in 2022 to 240 in 2024, indicating positive progress in regional market expansion [2]. Group 3: New Store Performance - The first store in Handan achieved sales of over 6.8 million RMB in its first month, ranking fifth globally for first-month sales [3]. - The first store in Xuzhou set a new global record for single-day sales at over 680,000 RMB on its opening day [3]. - Among 64 new stores opened in 15 cities, 24 have already achieved full cash recovery, with an average payback period of under one year, showcasing industry-leading investment return efficiency [3]. Group 4: Digitalization and Operational Efficiency - Domino's China implements a "4D" strategy focusing on high-quality store development, cost-effective delicious pizzas, efficient delivery experiences, and digital capabilities [4]. - The "Da Ren Hui" membership program has grown to 32.9 million members, a 51.6% increase year-on-year, contributing 66% of revenue, thus enhancing user retention and creating a private traffic moat [5]. - The company has maintained strong operational performance, with 49 out of the top 50 sales positions in the first 30 days globally held by Domino's China [5]. Group 5: Product Innovation and Brand Building - The company focuses on consumer demand in product development, continuously launching new products tailored to Chinese tastes, enhancing market adaptability [6]. - New product launches include various innovative pizzas and dessert options, reflecting ongoing product innovation capabilities [6]. - Recent promotional activities, such as the "Buy One Get One Free" campaign, and product upgrades have improved consumer engagement and perceived value [7]. Group 6: Overall Market Position - Domino's China has established itself as the second-largest player in the Chinese pizza market, supported by effective regional market expansion and operational strategies [3]. - The company's ability to navigate a competitive landscape through precise store expansion, digital empowerment, and product innovation positions it for sustained growth [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a holistic approach to health, advocating for a dynamic balance across various dimensions of well-being rather than adhering to rigid health standards [9][10]. Group 1: Health Perception - The concept of health has been overly idealized, leading to anxiety and unrealistic expectations among individuals [5][6]. - Acknowledging the complexity of health issues is crucial, as each person's path to health is influenced by diverse factors [5][6]. - The article suggests that true health comes from accepting imperfections and focusing on continuous improvement rather than striving for unattainable perfection [6][7]. Group 2: Health Dimensions - Health should encompass not only physical well-being but also mental, social, and financial health, creating a comprehensive view of what it means to be healthy [9][10]. - The article highlights the need for sustainable health practices that can adapt to individual lifestyles and circumstances [10][12]. - A balanced approach to health involves recognizing the interplay between various life dimensions, leading to a more fulfilling and happy life [10][12]. Group 3: Practical Insights - The journey to health should be enjoyable and sustainable, focusing on what feels right for the individual rather than quick fixes [6][7]. - Engaging in activities that promote health should be seen as a game-like experience, where progress is made through exploration and enjoyment [6][7]. - The article references the concept of "antifragility," suggesting that embracing challenges can lead to growth and resilience [6][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses a shift in real estate investment focus towards older, low-rise buildings in city centers, which are perceived as valuable urban "equity" rather than mere physical properties [1][3][10] Group 1: Investment Perspective - Investors are purchasing not just buildings, but the core, scarce "equity" of the city, as these older low-rise buildings occupy prime locations that cannot be replicated [3][5] - The value of properties in top school districts with comprehensive amenities is significantly higher than that of luxury villas in suburban areas, emphasizing the importance of location [5][8] - These properties are seen as resilient assets with minimal speculative risk, having undergone rigorous valuation over time [5][8] Group 2: Lifestyle and Experience - The modern emphasis on efficiency has led to a loss of personal connection with time, and owning a low-rise building allows for a more mindful and connected lifestyle [5][6] - The experience of walking up stairs rather than using elevators fosters a deeper appreciation for life and community interactions [5][6] Group 3: Risk Management - Low-rise buildings present a simpler living experience with lower maintenance risks compared to high-rise apartments, which rely on complex systems that can fail [6][8] - These properties serve as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios, providing a "safe harbor" during market fluctuations due to their enduring value [8][10]