你的下一台 特斯拉 可能連一顆 中國製造的 螺絲釘都沒有了！ 這不是開玩笑 華爾街日報 已經爆料 特斯拉對供應商 下了死命令 把中國製造清零！ 為什麼這麼急？ 看看現在是 2025 年底 川普政府的關稅 簡直是地獄級 有些關鍵材料稅率 甚至高達 145%！ 這已經不是 成本問題 而是這輛車 還能不能在美國 賣的生死問題！ 很多人擔心 要完了 那便宜好用的 中國電池怎麼辦？ 特斯拉成本 會不會原地爆炸？ 把心放在肚子吧 當通用汽車 還在焦頭爛額 的發通知時候 馬斯克早就在 內華達的沙漠裡 佈好了局！ 2026 年 特斯拉自己的 電池工廠就要 大規模量產 這才是老馬 最恐怖的地方 他利用這場 貿易危機 硬生生給自己 挖了一條護城河！ 這不叫被逼無奈 這在商業戰略上 叫做「反脆弱」！. ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the scale of secondary bond funds, with a growth of 374.7 billion units in Q3, representing a 56.9% increase. This trend indicates that many investors are entering the market through "fixed income+" products [1]. Group 1: Fund Growth Characteristics - Traditional large firms and emerging players are both experiencing growth. For instance, E Fund's secondary bond fund size increased from 98.8 billion to 128 billion, a rise of 29.2 billion. Meanwhile, new players like China Europe Fund and Yongying Fund also saw their secondary bond fund sizes grow by approximately 29 billion each in Q3 [2]. - There is a parallel growth in low-volatility and high-volatility "fixed income+" products. E Fund had three funds with growth exceeding 5 billion, including E Fund Stable Income and E Fund Yu Xiang Return, which saw increases of 9.9 billion and 5.9 billion respectively [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting large firms for investment in secondary bond funds due to their superior risk control and professional talent pool. E Fund, for example, has a well-established team of experienced fund managers and has been a pioneer in multi-asset teams [4]. - A notable portion of the increased fund size is attributed to institutional investments, with over 90% of E Fund Yu Xin being held by institutions as of the second quarter [5]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy of Fund Managers - The investment philosophy of fund manager Hu Wenbo is characterized by two main principles: belief in mean reversion and the construction of a "anti-fragile" portfolio. This approach allows for potential gains to outweigh losses in volatile market conditions [6][13]. - Hu Wenbo's strategy includes increasing the allocation to convertible bonds, which rose from 8.4% to 14.82% in Q1 2024, and maintaining a high allocation of over 40% in subsequent quarters, contributing to the fund's strong performance [10][15]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - Under Hu Wenbo's guidance, E Fund Yu Xin achieved a return of 20.52% over the past year, ranking in the top 4% of its category, and a return of 17.44% year-to-date, also placing it in the top 4% [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift from high growth to resilience in Chinese enterprises, highlighting the importance of "antifragility" in navigating uncertainties and challenges in the current economic landscape [2][3][20] Group 1: Understanding Antifragility - Antifragility refers to the ability of organizations to become stronger in the face of adversity, allowing them to maintain good coordination in supply chains, society, and capital during crises [2] - The concept of "creative destruction" by economist Joseph Schumpeter is referenced, indicating that economic innovation disrupts old orders and creates new structures [2] Group 2: The Role of ESG - ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) is presented as a crucial framework for building resilience in modern enterprises, enabling them to withstand various pressures such as climate change and social inequality [3][4] - ESG is not merely an accessory but a systematic approach that transforms companies into "evergreen" entities capable of enduring changes and cycles [4] Group 3: Investor Interest in ESG - Investors are increasingly focused on ESG for three main reasons: 1. High ESG ratings reflect overall corporate strength and can lead to improved internal consensus and management practices [7] 2. Strong ESG performance reduces risks for investors by signaling effective risk management and avoiding potential financial scandals [7] 3. Companies with good ESG practices tend to provide stable returns, as they are better positioned to manage resources and relationships during market fluctuations [7] Group 4: ESG Dimensions - The environmental dimension (E) involves proactive measures against climate risks, such as Shell's use of TCFD for predicting carbon price impacts [8] - The social dimension (S) focuses on building public trust, which acts as a buffer during crises, as evidenced by Japanese companies' performance post-Fukushima [8] - The governance dimension (G) emphasizes the integration of ESG into strategic planning and risk management, enhancing the organization's ability to respond to external crises [9] Group 5: Case Study - China Ping An - China Ping An exemplifies effective ESG implementation, achieving a top MSCI ESG rating and significant profit growth, demonstrating the link between ESG strategy and business performance [11][17] - The company has developed a comprehensive ESG strategy that includes green investments and innovative insurance products aligned with national carbon goals [13][18] - Ping An's governance structure supports rapid decision-making and transparency, enhancing investor trust and confidence [16][19] Group 6: Future Implications of ESG - The article concludes that ESG will become a fundamental requirement for companies, shifting the focus from mere profit to resilience and sustainable practices [20] - Companies that deeply integrate ESG into their strategies will build structural advantages that are difficult to disrupt, ensuring long-term success [20]

#读书我没有读过《反脆弱》这本书，实际上我没有读过塔勒布，呃我平均一年也读不了一本书。可能这些年一直听过细碎的片段，或者演化后的表达，我对这篇读后感感到很熟悉。甚至不能说熟悉。这篇经验里的很多观点，就是我自己的投资内核，我自己实战和复盘后的精神财富。越是如此，越不想读。有一种怕见大师，又怕露怯的局促和别扭感。拖延症和完美主义者应该能 get。𝙃𝘼𝙕𝙀𝙉𝙇𝙀𝙀 (@HAZENLEE_):转我用了三年才真正看懂《反脆弱》。第一次读的时候，觉得塔勒布在卖弄——一个交易员写这么厚一本书讲哲学，还动不动骂经济学家和银行家。但三年后再翻，我发现他说的每一句话都是对的，只是我当时没资格懂。这本书最狠辣的地方，是它揭穿了现代生活最大的谎言：稳定。 https://t.co/fNlGNzBQLW ...

Core Viewpoint - In the current market environment, companies need to possess the ability to cope with uncertainties, with Domino's Pizza showcasing strong resilience and growth despite challenges [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Domino's Pizza reported a 6.2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching $1.15 billion, with same-store sales growth of 5.2% in the U.S. and 1.7% internationally [1]. - The company's operating profit increased by 12.2% year-on-year, with net profit reaching $139 million, demonstrating operational resilience in a complex environment [1]. Group 2: Store Expansion Strategy - Domino's China, through its exclusive franchisee, achieved a net addition of 275 stores in Q3 2025, operating a total of 1,283 stores across 51 cities in mainland China [2]. - The company met its target of opening 300 new stores for the entire year, with a steady increase in same-store sales across both group and first-tier cities [2]. - Historical data shows a consistent increase in net new stores from 120 in 2022 to 240 in 2024, indicating positive progress in regional market expansion [2]. Group 3: New Store Performance - The first store in Handan achieved sales of over 6.8 million RMB in its first month, ranking fifth globally for first-month sales [3]. - The first store in Xuzhou set a new global record for single-day sales at over 680,000 RMB on its opening day [3]. - Among 64 new stores opened in 15 cities, 24 have already achieved full cash recovery, with an average payback period of under one year, showcasing industry-leading investment return efficiency [3]. Group 4: Digitalization and Operational Efficiency - Domino's China implements a "4D" strategy focusing on high-quality store development, cost-effective delicious pizzas, efficient delivery experiences, and digital capabilities [4]. - The "Da Ren Hui" membership program has grown to 32.9 million members, a 51.6% increase year-on-year, contributing 66% of revenue, thus enhancing user retention and creating a private traffic moat [5]. - The company has maintained strong operational performance, with 49 out of the top 50 sales positions in the first 30 days globally held by Domino's China [5]. Group 5: Product Innovation and Brand Building - The company focuses on consumer demand in product development, continuously launching new products tailored to Chinese tastes, enhancing market adaptability [6]. - New product launches include various innovative pizzas and dessert options, reflecting ongoing product innovation capabilities [6]. - Recent promotional activities, such as the "Buy One Get One Free" campaign, and product upgrades have improved consumer engagement and perceived value [7]. Group 6: Overall Market Position - Domino's China has established itself as the second-largest player in the Chinese pizza market, supported by effective regional market expansion and operational strategies [3]. - The company's ability to navigate a competitive landscape through precise store expansion, digital empowerment, and product innovation positions it for sustained growth [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a holistic approach to health, advocating for a dynamic balance across various dimensions of well-being rather than adhering to rigid health standards [9][10]. Group 1: Health Perception - The concept of health has been overly idealized, leading to anxiety and unrealistic expectations among individuals [5][6]. - Acknowledging the complexity of health issues is crucial, as each person's path to health is influenced by diverse factors [5][6]. - The article suggests that true health comes from accepting imperfections and focusing on continuous improvement rather than striving for unattainable perfection [6][7]. Group 2: Health Dimensions - Health should encompass not only physical well-being but also mental, social, and financial health, creating a comprehensive view of what it means to be healthy [9][10]. - The article highlights the need for sustainable health practices that can adapt to individual lifestyles and circumstances [10][12]. - A balanced approach to health involves recognizing the interplay between various life dimensions, leading to a more fulfilling and happy life [10][12]. Group 3: Practical Insights - The journey to health should be enjoyable and sustainable, focusing on what feels right for the individual rather than quick fixes [6][7]. - Engaging in activities that promote health should be seen as a game-like experience, where progress is made through exploration and enjoyment [6][7]. - The article references the concept of "antifragility," suggesting that embracing challenges can lead to growth and resilience [6][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses a shift in real estate investment focus towards older, low-rise buildings in city centers, which are perceived as valuable urban "equity" rather than mere physical properties [1][3][10] Group 1: Investment Perspective - Investors are purchasing not just buildings, but the core, scarce "equity" of the city, as these older low-rise buildings occupy prime locations that cannot be replicated [3][5] - The value of properties in top school districts with comprehensive amenities is significantly higher than that of luxury villas in suburban areas, emphasizing the importance of location [5][8] - These properties are seen as resilient assets with minimal speculative risk, having undergone rigorous valuation over time [5][8] Group 2: Lifestyle and Experience - The modern emphasis on efficiency has led to a loss of personal connection with time, and owning a low-rise building allows for a more mindful and connected lifestyle [5][6] - The experience of walking up stairs rather than using elevators fosters a deeper appreciation for life and community interactions [5][6] Group 3: Risk Management - Low-rise buildings present a simpler living experience with lower maintenance risks compared to high-rise apartments, which rely on complex systems that can fail [6][8] - These properties serve as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios, providing a "safe harbor" during market fluctuations due to their enduring value [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a competitive game where only a few can truly profit, and most participants are at a disadvantage compared to the most skilled and resourceful investors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Personal investors can achieve success through an all-weather asset allocation strategy proposed by Ray Dalio, which allows for profit across various market conditions despite volatility [5][6]. - Different asset classes respond differently to economic growth and inflation, with stocks and commodities performing well in certain conditions, while bonds and gold excel in others [6][8]. - The correlation between different asset classes is low, which supports the concept of "anti-fragility" in investment, allowing for diversification to mitigate risks [9]. Group 2: Importance of Reducing Volatility - The concept of reducing volatility through diversified asset allocation is crucial, as relying on a single asset class can lead to significant losses during market downturns [10][11]. - Historical performance shows that maintaining a diversified portfolio can smooth out returns and provide more consistent performance over time [12]. Group 3: All-Weather Portfolio Implementation - A recommended all-weather portfolio consists of 20% stocks, 15% gold, 15% commodities, and 50% long-term bonds, aiming for an annualized return of around 10% with lower volatility [13]. - Historical data from 2005 to 2025 illustrates the performance of this all-weather portfolio compared to individual asset classes, highlighting its resilience during market fluctuations [14]. Group 4: Conclusion - The key to successful investing lies in acknowledging one's limitations and leveraging systematic strategies to outperform the majority of professional investors [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of organizational resilience and adaptability in the face of uncertainty, blurred boundaries, and value reconstruction brought about by artificial intelligence [2][5]. - The technological environment is characterized by digital intelligence technologies becoming the new infrastructure that connects everything [2]. - The institutional environment now mandates social responsibility as a necessary option for organizations [3]. Group 2 - Performance focus has shifted from internal optimization to external organizational dynamics [4]. - The core dilemma for companies is that internal improvements do not guarantee survival, necessitating a new growth logic [5]. - Opportunities in the face of change can be found through seeking symbiosis, which is crucial for addressing challenges and dilemmas [5][6]. Group 3 - In the AI era, the concept of "symbiosis" is essential due to technological penetration across various domains, transforming strategies, processes, and experiences [7]. - Companies that have thrived during challenging times often possess advanced digital capabilities and have established collaborative networks [7]. - Four cognitive shifts are necessary for organizations: from "maximizing profit" to "meaning architecture," from "resource allocator" to "field creator," from "industry competitor" to "cross-domain connector," and from "business leader" to "meta-cognitive coach" [8][9][10][11]. Group 4 - Trust is identified as the foundational element for the coexistence of AI and humanity [12]. - The new organizational form is a "symbiotic organization," characterized by creating ecosystems where all participants have opportunities for growth [13]. Group 5 - The core of digital transformation is not just about digital upgrades but also about innovating comprehensive service and operational solutions for the entire customer lifecycle [14]. - Companies like Midea have adopted strategic upgrades to align with future-oriented development models, emphasizing technology and user engagement [14]. Group 6 - The evolution of organizational structures has progressed from pyramid organizations to learning organizations, and now to symbiotic organizations, which require co-creation, evolution, and resilience [16]. - To build a symbiotic organization, four realms of training are necessary: belief in symbiosis, customer-centricity, deep integration of technology, and "selfless" leadership [17].

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a competitive game that only a few can profit from, and most participants are at a disadvantage compared to the most skilled and resourceful investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Personal investors can achieve a favorable position through an all-weather asset allocation strategy proposed by Ray Dalio, which allows for profit across various market conditions [6][7]. - Each asset class can generate returns over the long term, but significant volatility and drawdowns can hinder many investors from realizing these gains [7]. - The correlation between different asset classes is low, which supports the concept of "anti-fragility" in investment [10][12]. Group 2: Importance of Reducing Volatility - The concepts of anti-fragility, asset allocation, and diversification are not original to Dalio but have been developed by various investment masters [12]. - The two key principles of asset allocation are to invest in long-term appreciating risk assets and to buy uncorrelated assets to reduce volatility [12]. - Maintaining a diversified portfolio is crucial as it helps smooth out returns and allows for flexibility in capital allocation [14][15]. Group 3: All-Weather Portfolio Practice - A proposed all-weather portfolio consists of 20% stocks, 15% gold, 15% commodities, and 50% long-term bonds, aiming for an annualized return of 10% [16]. - Historical performance data shows that even during market downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis, the all-weather portfolio experienced significantly lower losses compared to individual asset classes [17]. Group 4: Conclusion - The all-weather strategy provides a robust investment framework for ordinary investors, enabling them to outperform many professional investors through a systematic approach [19][20].