以下文章来源于晓芳聊财经 ，作者王晓芳团队 晓芳聊财经 . 说商业奇闻、讲品牌故事、人话解读行业内幕。王晓芳，壹创新商学创始人，20年企业管理咨询经验， 链接赋能16万家企业。聚景资本管理合伙人，投资中信建设、喜马拉雅、金维制药等众多项目。 来源｜晓芳聊财经（ XF-SZC ） 图源丨Midjourney 不是说现在经济不景气，大厂裁员，好多人都失业了么？ 为什么热门景点，依然人挤人；就连小众景点也排起了长龙，目光所及全是人。 据数据显示，我国2024年全年国内出游人次达56.15亿，较2023年增加7.24亿人次，同比增长 14.8%。 而2025年上半年，国内居民出游人次达32.85亿，同比增长20.6%。预计2025年全年将突破60亿人 次。 你说经济不好，为什么旅行的人却越来越多呢？ 难道大家都很有钱，唯独自己没有钱？ 其实，在经济不景气的背景下，旅游人数反而增加的现象看似矛盾，实则反映了消费行为、社会心理 和行业策略的多重变化。 旅游人数增长的4大原因 几千块一个月，根本花不完。 出门旅行虽然也有些消费，但相比结婚、房子、车子、孩子这些消费，就相当于买只口红而已。 经济学中有个"口红效应"，就是指在 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in consumer spending from traditional retail to experiential purchases, indicating a growing preference for experiences over material goods [1][3][11] Consumer Behavior - In major shopping centers, traditional retail areas are experiencing a decline in foot traffic, with some areas seeing a nearly 40% drop in customer visits, while entertainment venues are thriving [3][5] - The overall retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods in the first eight months of the year is only 3.4%, contrasting sharply with the booming cultural and entertainment market [3][5] - Consumers, particularly younger individuals, are increasingly valuing experiences, such as attending concerts or participating in immersive activities, over purchasing physical items [5][7][11] Experience Economy - The rise of the "experience economy" is evident, as businesses adapt to consumer preferences by offering lifestyle-oriented services rather than just products [11][12] - Retailers are transforming their spaces to create comfortable environments that encourage longer visits, which can lead to increased sales [12][14] - Technological advancements, such as AR fitting rooms and mobile payments, are enhancing the experience economy, making it easier for consumers to engage and purchase [14][16] Economic Impact - The experience economy is not only revitalizing local economies but also creating new job opportunities in sectors like tourism, culture, and entertainment, with a reported 21% increase in employment in these areas compared to the previous year [16][18] - Innovative roles, such as immersive experience designers, are emerging as businesses focus on creating engaging and interactive consumer experiences [18] Government Initiatives - Governments are recognizing the importance of the experience economy and are implementing policies to encourage spending on experiences, such as paid leave and cultural consumption vouchers [18][20] - The article discusses the potential for experience-based spending to serve as a new economic driver, emphasizing the need for creativity and engagement in consumer offerings [18][20]

Summary of the Conference Call for Wancheng Group Industry Overview - The snack retail industry exhibits significant head effect, with leading brands like "Ling Shi Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yi Ming" merging, and Wancheng Group integrating its brands, leading to rapid store expansion and improved supply chain efficiency [2][4] - The snack retail sector is large, with specialty stores (including snack retail) and e-commerce channels showing strong performance, achieving double-digit compound growth over the past five years [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - **Growth Drivers for Wancheng Group**: - Scale effect from increased store numbers enhancing supply chain efficiency [2][6] - Cost control through reducing intermediaries and lowering markup rates [2][6] - Market demand driven by economic downturn, with consumers seeking affordable snacks (lipstick effect) [2][6] - **Competitive Landscape**: - The competition is expected to solidify, with leading brands maintaining their advantage and expanding store numbers, potentially reaching 46,000 to 56,000 stores [4][13] - The gap between leading brands and smaller brands is widening, with leading brands rapidly increasing their store counts to 5,000-6,000, while smaller brands lag behind [5][13] - **Store Performance and Profitability**: - Wancheng Group's stores have a gross margin of approximately 10-11%, while competitors like "Ming Ming" have lower margins of 7-8% [8][18] - The company’s net profit is lower than industry leader "Ming Ming" due to high minority equity ratios and significant employee stock incentive costs [18] - **Future Growth Projections**: - Wancheng Group's snack retail business revenue is projected to reach 50.6 billion RMB, 60.2 billion RMB, and 68.6 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with a gradual increase in gross margin [4][23] - The company anticipates a net profit margin of around 5% in the coming years, driven by scale effects and cost optimization [19][23] Additional Important Insights - **Store Experience and Franchise Appeal**: - Snack retail stores enhance shopping experience through well-designed environments and a wide variety of products, making them attractive to franchisees [9][11] - Franchisees can expect quick returns on investment, with high turnover rates and low entry barriers [11] - **Supplier Relationships**: - Snack retail stores maintain good relationships with upstream suppliers, with short accounts payable turnover days (around 20 days), enhancing cash flow [12] - The absence of entry fees and low sales expense ratios help suppliers improve their net profit levels [12] - **Market Trends and Challenges**: - The industry is shifting towards full-category supermarkets to increase SKU variety and attract more consumers [20] - Companies need to balance product selection for sales velocity and profitability to avoid lowering efficiency [20] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Based on PEG valuation methods, a target price of 232.88 RMB per share is suggested, indicating a potential upside of 20%-30% from current prices [26]

Group 1: Industry Trends - The "redemption economy" is gaining popularity among young people, characterized by compensatory spending on indulgent foods and activities to balance their stressful lifestyles [1][6] - Fishing has become a favored activity among young people, with approximately 150 million fishing enthusiasts in China, translating to one in ten people [2][3] - The fishing-related enterprises in China have seen significant growth, with over 8,000 new companies established this year alone, bringing the total to approximately 119,600 [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Dong'e Ejiao reported a revenue of 3.051 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking an 11.02% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 818 million yuan, up 10.74% [5] - The company has successfully targeted younger consumers with innovative products, such as ready-to-eat snacks and instant ejiao powder, contributing to a projected revenue of 5.5 billion yuan from the "Peach Blossom Princess" product line in 2024 [5][6] - The health snack market is expected to reach 751.4 billion yuan by 2026, driven by the personalized health needs of the Z generation [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to fishing as a low-cost escape from their daily routines, with social media platforms playing a significant role in popularizing the activity [3][4] - The demand for lightweight and aesthetically pleasing fishing gear is pushing manufacturers to innovate, with companies like Guangwei Outdoor Equipment producing high-quality carbon fiber rods [9] - The fishing trend has led to the emergence of a comprehensive consumption chain, including camping, barbecuing, and tourism, particularly in Weihai, which has become a hub for fishing-related activities [8][11] Group 4: Regional Development - Weihai has established itself as a major center for fishing gear manufacturing, with over 1,400 related enterprises and an annual output value exceeding 10 billion yuan [8][11] - The city has also developed a thriving marine ranching tourism sector, attracting over 1 million visitors in 2024 and generating additional revenue for local businesses [11] - Events like the "Guangwei Fishing King Cup" have further enhanced Weihai's reputation as a fishing destination, driving both equipment sales and tourism [11]

Core Insights - The demand for wearable wristband devices in mainland China is significantly boosted by national subsidy policies, which encourage existing users to upgrade their devices, attract new users, and rekindle interest among old users [1][3] - In the first half of 2025, the shipment volume of wearable wristband devices in mainland China is expected to reach 33.9 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 36%, following a 33% increase in the second half of 2024 [1][3] - The basic wristband category is the fastest-growing segment, with an impressive growth rate of 80%, driving the strong performance of the mainland market [3] Market Dynamics - The combination of national subsidy policies and major promotional events like "618" has lowered the purchasing threshold for price-sensitive consumers, encouraging them to consider higher-priced basic and smartwatches [3] - The phenomenon known as the "lipstick effect" is evident, as consumers are willing to spend on mid to high-end devices priced between 1,599 to 2,999 RMB (approximately 400 USD) due to the influence of subsidy policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of "emotional value" in consumer behavior, highlighting a shift from functional and practical consumption to a focus on individual expression and emotional satisfaction in the context of economic changes [4][18]. Group 1: Emotional Value - Emotional value refers to the additional value of a product beyond its functionality and practicality, often tied to design and aesthetic appeal [4][5]. - The current consumer market reflects a transition to a "third consumption era," where the focus shifts from basic necessities to personalized and segmented demands [4][18]. - Emotional value is characterized by a detachment from functional attributes, allowing for premium pricing based on consumer sentiment rather than utility [5][19]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise of companies like Pop Mart illustrates a significant change in consumer preferences, where emotional value can drive sales even in a downturn [5][20]. - The traditional logic of basic consumer goods, which relies on quantifiable metrics, contrasts sharply with the more subjective nature of emotional value [6][16]. - The phenomenon of "useless premium" emerges during economic downturns, where consumers still seek non-essential items for psychological comfort, despite a general trend towards frugality [10][12]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Younger consumers are increasingly willing to pay for non-functional items, reflecting a desire for self-expression and emotional fulfillment [19][25]. - The concept of "lipstick effect" is mentioned, suggesting that consumers may indulge in small luxuries during tough economic times, although this idea lacks empirical support [12]. - The article posits that as economic conditions worsen, the appeal of emotional value may grow, providing a channel for the release of existing wealth [15][25]. Group 4: Case Studies - Pop Mart's success is attributed not only to its product design but also to the founder's genuine passion for the collectible toy market, emphasizing the importance of emotional connection in business [23]. - The article contrasts the performance of luxury brands like BMW, which continue to thrive despite economic challenges, with more traditional consumer goods that face risks of being "replaced" or "segmented" [20][21]. - Lululemon's strategy of extracting abstract value from functional products demonstrates how brands can successfully navigate the shift towards emotional value [20].

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing dynamics of tourism spending in China, highlighting a trend where more people are traveling but spending less per trip, indicating a shift towards budget-friendly travel options [1][3][12] - The rise of rural tourism is emphasized, with rural residents increasingly becoming significant contributors to the tourism market, reflecting a broader democratization of travel [10][11][12] Group 1: Tourism Spending Trends - In the first half of 2025, the number of trips taken increased by 20.55% compared to the same period in 2024, while total spending only rose by 15.38%, suggesting a decrease in per capita spending [2][3] - Rural residents' travel participation and spending grew by over 30%, outpacing urban residents, with rural per capita spending slightly increasing [2][10] - The average spending per person decreased by 4.29% overall, indicating a trend towards more economical travel choices [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The "lipstick effect" is observed in tourism, where consumers opt for smaller, affordable pleasures during economic downturns, leading to a preference for budget travel [3][12] - High-end tourism markets are contracting, as evidenced by the decline in five-star hotel occupancy, while budget options and local experiences are gaining popularity [5][7][12] - The shift in consumer behavior reflects a broader societal change, moving from luxury travel to more accessible and experiential forms of tourism [12][14] Group 3: Rural Tourism Growth - The rise of rural tourism is significant, with rural residents increasingly participating in travel, supported by improved income levels and changing consumer attitudes [10][11] - Non-first-tier cities are becoming important sources of tourism demand, with over 87% of registered users on travel platforms coming from these areas [11][12] - The growth in rural tourism is expected to continue, with a notable increase in travel frequency and spending among rural populations [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the strong mid-year performance of Mixue Group, with significant revenue and profit growth, despite a slight decline in gross margin due to rising raw material costs and changes in revenue structure [2][3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, Mixue Group reported revenue of 14.875 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% from 10.677 billion RMB in 2024 [3]. - The gross profit for the same period was 4.706 billion RMB, reflecting a 38.3% increase compared to 3.403 billion RMB in 2024 [3]. - Net profit reached 2.718 billion RMB, up 44.1% from 1.887 billion RMB in the previous year [3]. - Basic earnings per share were 7.23 RMB, a 38.2% increase from 5.23 RMB in 2024 [3]. Operational Highlights - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group had a total of 53,014 stores globally, marking a 22.67% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company attributes its robust growth to a focus on supply chain enhancement, brand IP development, and optimization of store operations [3]. Industry Context - The report also mentions that another leading tea beverage company, Gu Ming, experienced significant growth, with a revenue of 5.663 billion RMB, up 41.2% year-on-year [4][5]. - Gu Ming's net profit for the same period was 1.626 billion RMB, reflecting a remarkable 119.8% increase [5]. - Both Mixue Group and Gu Ming are noted for their strategies in expanding store networks and appealing to consumer preferences for high-quality, affordable products [6]. Market Reaction - Despite strong financial results, the stock prices of both Mixue Group and Gu Ming fell on August 27, with Mixue Group down 5.27% and Gu Ming down 3.75% [7][10]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction may be influenced by overall market sentiment and expectations, rather than the companies' performance [10].

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods industry is facing challenges, prompting brands to explore new business avenues such as cosmetics, with Louis Vuitton (LV) entering the beauty market later than its competitors [1][6]. Group 1: LV's Entry into the Beauty Market - LV announced its entry into the beauty sector on August 20, launching a new makeup line in China, which includes a variety of products except eyeshadow [1][3]. - The new makeup line took four years to prepare and features products like 8 palettes of four-color eyeshadows, 10 transparent lip balms, and 55 shades of LV Rouge lipsticks [3][4]. - The first global perfume and beauty boutique was opened in Nanjing, with the Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza being the only offline store for LV beauty products in Shanghai [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - LV is the last among top luxury brands to enter the beauty market, with Chanel and Dior having established their beauty lines decades ago [6]. - Chanel's beauty segment accounted for about one-third of its total sales, while Dior has been in the beauty business for nearly 80 years [6]. - Other luxury brands like Gucci and Burberry are also launching beauty products, recognizing the rapid growth and immediate revenue potential of the cosmetics market [8]. Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - The beauty segment has shown resilience amid overall stagnation in luxury goods sales, becoming a bright spot for brands like LVMH, which reported stable revenue in its perfume and cosmetics division [8]. - LVMH's perfume and cosmetics revenue reached €4.082 billion in the first half of the year, a slight decline of 1% year-over-year, indicating a need for independent operational systems to enhance growth [8]. - Despite the potential, the beauty segment's contribution remains limited, with Hermes reporting a 4.1% decline in its beauty and fragrance revenue to €248 million, representing only 3.1% of its total revenue [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of Crocs, once a fashion sensation, highlighting a significant drop in its financial performance and changing consumer preferences that have led to its current struggles [5][9][19]. Financial Performance - Crocs reported a drastic shift in its financials, with operating profit plummeting from $325.7 million in the same quarter last year to an operating loss of $427.5 million in Q2 2025 [5]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline of 9% to 11% in Q3, contrasting sharply with previous market expectations [5]. - Following the announcement, Crocs' stock price fell nearly 30%, reaching a three-year low with a market capitalization of $4.171 billion [5]. Historical Context - In 2023, Crocs sold 120 million pairs of shoes, generating nearly $4 billion in revenue, marking a historic high for the brand [9][18]. - The brand's unique positioning as a functional shoe with features like slip resistance and water resistance initially drove its popularity [11]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - Crocs successfully transformed its "ugly shoe" image into a cultural symbol through clever marketing strategies, appealing to younger consumers [11][13]. - The brand's DIY culture, allowing consumers to personalize their shoes, contributed to its appeal, with significant social media engagement [15]. Consumer Behavior Changes - A shift in consumer sentiment has been noted, with a decline in spending on non-essential items, particularly among price-sensitive low-income groups [19][21]. - The "long skirt theory" suggests that during economic downturns, consumers tend to opt for more conservative and practical choices, impacting Crocs' sales [21]. Competitive Landscape - The market for casual footwear has become increasingly competitive, with numerous brands offering similar products at lower price points, challenging Crocs' market share [30][32]. - Crocs' pricing strategy, with shoes priced between $30 to $90, is less competitive compared to alternatives available for as low as $10 [32]. Product and Innovation Challenges - Crocs faces criticism regarding its product quality and innovation, with many consumers expressing dissatisfaction with comfort and fit [32]. - The acquisition of HEYDUDE did not yield the expected results, with a revenue decline and significant impairment losses reported [27]. Economic and Regulatory Factors - The company anticipates a $90 million impact from tariffs in 2025, which could further strain its pricing strategy and consumer demand [29]. - The presence of counterfeit products and alternatives in the market is eroding Crocs' brand value and market position [30].