来源：人民银行网站 专家分析，新一期LPR维持不变符合市场预期。一方面，作为LPR定价基础的7天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，这意味着11月LPR的定价基 础没有发生变化。 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均较上期维 持不变。 当前，贷款利率保持在低位水平。数据显示，10月份企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个人住房新发放贷款 （本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约8个基点。 "综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。"董希淼认为，近年来企业和居民融资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。 在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并非当务之急。 展望下阶段，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，着眼于稳定今年四季度和明年一季度经济运行，稳增长政策有望进入发力阶段，年底前两个期限品种的 LPR有下行空间。LPR下降将引导企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下行，进一步激发内生性融资需求。 另一方面，商业银行净息差处于低位，缺乏下调LPR报价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for five consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting stable monetary policy and market expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has not changed since May 2025, when it was reduced by 10 basis points from 3.1% to 3% for the one-year rate and from 3.6% to 3.5% for the five-year rate [2]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to unchanged policy rates, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 1.89 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.4%, maintaining consistency in monetary policy [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the current environment, including rising financing costs for commercial banks and historical low net interest margins, limits the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes further [2][3]. Group 2: Future LPR Expectations - There is potential for a decrease in LPR before the end of the year, driven by efforts to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [4][5]. - The average interest rate for newly issued loans in September 2025 was approximately 3.1%, which is 40 basis points lower than the previous year, indicating a trend towards lower borrowing costs [4]. - External factors, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, may further support the case for a reduction in LPR, as domestic monetary policy could become more accommodative [5][6]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Impacts - The net interest margin for commercial banks has been declining, reaching 1.42% by the end of Q2 2025, down 10 basis points from Q4 2024, indicating pressure on bank profitability [3]. - Recent economic data show a decline in consumption, investment, and industrial production, which may necessitate stronger measures to stabilize growth and employment in the fourth quarter [5][6]. - The anticipated regulatory measures may include targeted reductions in the five-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking the fifth consecutive month of stability in LPR rates [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the LPR aligns with market expectations, indicating no changes in the pricing basis for October [3][4]. - The low net interest margin for commercial banks reduces the incentive to lower LPR quotes, as banks face slightly increased financing costs in the money market [4]. Group 2: Loan Rates - Current corporate and personal loan rates are at low levels, with the weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, and for personal housing loans also at about 3.1%, down about 25 basis points year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that there is still room for LPR to decline, particularly as measures to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market are implemented [4]. - The central bank may consider using tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and restoring government bond trading to inject long-term liquidity into the banking system, potentially leading to further reductions in LPR in the coming months [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - Food prices continue to offset core inflation, and the low inflation of food may be persistent due to the slowdown in catering consumption growth and abundant supply of edible agricultural products. Policy rate cuts may face increased difficulty in a scenario where the stock market remains strong [1][3][7] Summary by Related Content CPI Analysis - In September, the core CPI continued to stabilize trend - wise, with a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. However, food prices offset core inflation, resulting in a slight year - on - year decline in the overall CPI. Food price increases were hindered by the slowdown in catering consumption growth, which may be persistent as catering consumption is now driven only by per - capita consumption demand growth. Abundant supply of edible agricultural products also suppresses food prices [3][6][7] PPI Analysis - In September, the PPI was flat month - on - month and continued to stabilize year - on - year. In the coal - steel industry chain, the coking coal spot price index in late September was close to the average level in December last year, and the futures main contract closing price fluctuated around the December average. But the price index of downstream rebar still had a gap compared to the December average. The decline in international oil prices in the first two weeks of October may put pressure on the October PPI [12][13] Policy Rate Analysis - Considering the continued improvement of the year - on - year PPI and core CPI indicators in September, the urgency of policy rate cuts is limited. The narrowing of commercial banks' net interest margins may still be a constraint on policy rate cuts. With the strong stock market, the year - on - year growth rate of commercial banks' time and other deposits has declined. If the stock market remains strong, it may be more difficult for commercial banks to further reduce deposit rates, and thus policy rate cuts may also face increased difficulty [3][13]

从今年前8个月数据来看，规模以上工业增加值累计同比增长6.2%，略低于上半年的6.4%，服务业生产 指数累计同比增长5.9%，与上半年持平。当前经济增速保持在5.0%的目标水平之上，实现全年经济社 会发展目标任务可期，暂时无需政策加码。 其次，用好结构性货币政策工具。在5月7日发布的"一揽子金融政策"中，央行扩容多项结构性工具、创 设两项新工具，并大幅下调结构性货币政策工具利率等。在政策工具不断完备之后，加强对科技创新、 提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等领域的定向支持将成为工作重点。 另一方面，则由于货币宽松一定程度上受到净息差收窄的影响。央行多次表示，中国的货币政策坚持以 我为主，兼顾内外均衡。随着美联储9月重启降息，中美之间无风险利差改善，人民币兑美元保持稳中 有升势头，因此外部掣肘并不突出，但商业银行净息差问题值得重视。 今年二季度，商业银行净息差收窄至1.42%，刷新历史新低。一旦货币宽松，对存贷款利率传导速度不 同，会进一步挤压商业银行净息差，进而会增加其经营压力。央行在二季度货币政策执行报告中强 调"把握好金融支持实体经济和保持自身健康性的平衡"即就此而言。 基于这两个原因，此次例会也将此前的"灵活 ...

Group 1 - The trend of residents' deposits becoming more time-bound is a significant phenomenon in the banking sector, but this trend is slowing down due to declining deposit rates and banks' cost-cutting measures [2] - From January to August 2024, residents' demand deposits increased by 5.202 billion yuan (1.3%), while time deposits rose by 76.391 billion yuan (7.7%), indicating a serious trend towards time deposits [2] - In 2025, residents' demand deposits decreased by 18.404 billion yuan (4.2%), while time deposits increased by 60.940 billion yuan (5.4%), showing that the trend towards time deposits continues but at a slower pace [2] Group 2 - For enterprises, the deposit structure shows a different trend; from January to August 2024, enterprise demand deposits decreased by 57.468 billion yuan (22.8%), while time deposits increased by 17.073 billion yuan (3.1%) [4] - In 2025, enterprise demand deposits increased by 8.798 billion yuan (4.4%), while time deposits slightly decreased by 0.947 billion yuan (0.16%), indicating a reversal of the time deposit trend for enterprises [5] - The significant increase in enterprise demand deposits this year is attributed to government bond issuance, which alleviated corporate debt pressure, allowing companies to invest more [6] Group 3 - The continuous decline in time deposit rates has led to an inverted yield curve, with short-term rates exceeding long-term rates, prompting banks to reduce time deposits to lower funding costs and improve net interest margins [6] - The average net interest margin of 58 listed banks has declined for five consecutive years, reaching 1.52% in 2024, with further narrowing to 1.43% in the first quarter of this year [6] - Although the rate of decline in net interest margins may slow, the downward trend is expected to continue [7]

Core Viewpoint - China's monetary policy is shifting towards using reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts instead of aggressive interest rate cuts to protect bank interest margins and maintain indirect financing channels, while also allowing for gradual interest rate reductions and innovative structural tools to stabilize finance and promote transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Since 2016, China has adjusted the RRR 23 times, all downward, reducing the RRR for major deposit-taking financial institutions from 17.5% to 9.0%, a total decrease of 8.5 percentage points [3]. - In contrast, the policy interest rates have only been adjusted 14 times since 2016, indicating a preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [3][4]. - The current average RRR for Chinese financial institutions is approximately 6.2%, suggesting substantial room for further RRR cuts compared to major economies where RRR tools are less utilized [5]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased to 1.42%, the lowest on record, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the banking sector if interest rates are cut too aggressively [3][4]. - The banking sector is crucial for supporting the real economy, as it accounts for 89.7% of financing in China, compared to only 42% in the U.S., where direct financing plays a larger role [4]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - RRR cuts will increase the funds available for commercial banks, enabling them to better support proactive fiscal policies, as approximately 68% of national debt and 75% of local government debt is held by commercial banks [6]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy is contingent on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, especially given the low excess reserve ratio in China [6]. Group 4: Interest Rate Dynamics - There is limited elasticity of consumption and investment to interest rate changes in China, which diminishes the effectiveness of interest rate cuts in stimulating economic activity [8]. - The decline in interest rates has led to a reduction in household deposits, with a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a relationship between lower interest rates and reduced savings [8]. - Despite the current low inflation and a slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, there remains room for further interest rate cuts, especially as external conditions improve with potential U.S. rate cuts [8][9]. Group 5: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - China has been innovating structural monetary policy tools, which have become increasingly important in supporting weak economic sectors and key areas such as technology innovation and green development [9]. - As of the end of 2024, structural monetary policy tools are expected to account for approximately 14.2% of total bank assets in China, highlighting their growing significance [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both the 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which aligns with market expectations [2] Group 1: LPR Quotation Stability - The LPR rates for August remained unchanged due to the stability of the policy interest rates, specifically the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate [2] - Market interest rates have seen an upward trend recently, but banks lack the incentive to lower the LPR due to historically low net interest margins [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The continuous stability of the LPR for three months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [2] - Experts suggest that the current period is one of policy observation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in the LPR [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, aligning with market expectations, as the policy interest rates have stabilized, and the impact of recent financial support measures from the central bank needs further observation [1][2] Group 1: LPR and Interest Rates - The LPR for one year is 3.0% and for five years or more is 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for three consecutive months since a decline in May [2] - New corporate loan rates are approximately 3.2%, and new personal housing loan rates are about 3.1%, showing a year-on-year decrease of around 45 basis points and 30 basis points, respectively [1] - The overall financing costs in society are on a downward trend, indicating that a reduction in LPR is not urgent at this time [1] Group 2: Banking Sector Insights - The net interest margin of commercial banks for the first half of the year is 1.42%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter, indicating low margins and limited motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [1] - Future adjustments in policy interest rates and LPR quotes may have room for reduction as efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market continue [1]

Core Insights - The banking sector in China showed stable performance in the first half of 2025, with a total net profit of 1.2 trillion yuan and a slight decrease in non-performing loans [1][8] - The non-performing loan balance stood at 3.4 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, indicating a slight improvement in asset quality [1][8] Summary by Categories Profitability and Asset Quality - Commercial banks achieved a net profit of 1.2 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting overall stability in the banking sector [1] - The non-performing loan balance decreased by 24 billion yuan from the previous quarter, while the non-performing loan ratio improved by 0.02 percentage points to 1.49% [1][8] Net Interest Margin - As of the end of June, the net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.42%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the end of March, indicating a continued narrowing trend [3][7] - Private banks, such as WeBank, maintained the highest net interest margin above 3%, while large state-owned banks were close to the 1.3% threshold, with a net interest margin of 1.31% [4][7] Loan Classification and Provisions - Despite a decrease in non-performing loans, the amount of special mention loans increased from 4.95 trillion yuan at the end of March to 5 trillion yuan at the end of June, indicating potential future risks [8] - Loan loss provisions and the loan provision coverage ratio improved compared to the end of March, reflecting a cautious approach to credit risk management [8][10]