货币政策是央行调节汇率的重要工具，其方向与力度会对汇率产生直接影响。根据2025年修订的《中华 人民共和国外汇管理条例》，我国进一步完善了外汇市场宏观审慎管理体系，明确了央行可通过调节外 汇储备、开展外汇市场操作等方式维护汇率稳定，此类政策操作会对汇率波动产生直接影响。实施紧缩 性货币政策时，央行减少货币投放量、提高市场利率，有助于增强货币吸引力，推动汇率升值；宽松性 货币政策则会增加货币供应、压低利率，导致货币贬值预期上升。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界作为专业的金融信息服务平台，长期致力于向用户提 供全面、及时、准确的财经资讯与金融知识内容，覆盖外汇、股票、债券、基金等多个金融领域，助力 用户提升对金融市场的理解与认知。 经济基本面是影响汇率长期走势的重要基础。一国的国内生产总值（GDP）增速反映了经济发展的整体 状况，若经济持续稳定增长，通常会吸引更多国际资本流入，增加对该国货币的需求，进而推动汇率上 升；经济增速放缓或衰退则会对货币汇率形成贬值压力。通货膨胀率与货币购买力密切相关，当一国通 胀率显著高于其他国家时，其货币的实际购买力下降，国际市场对该货币的信心减弱，汇率往往面临下 行压 ...

黄金市场正在迎来今年最关键的决策窗口。随着美联储内部鸽派力量增强、市场降息预期飙升至八成以 上，黄金价格已重新站上区间上方，逼近突破临界点。未来一周的经济数据与美联储沟通，将决定金价 能否从"震荡区间"迈向新的上行阶段。如果美联储如市场普遍预期般启动降息，金价有可能突破当前区 间上沿，并进一步向 4,150–4,200 美元 区域发起冲击；但如果美联储意外选择按兵不动，市场情绪可能 迅速转向谨慎，金价或回落至 3,980–4,000 美元 区间寻求新的支撑。 ●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 沃勒与戴利接连发声 美联储12月降息概率上升至 81%距离美联储年底最后一次政策会议仅剩16天， 利率期货市场对"12月降息"的押注继续走高。 2. 本周密集发布的经济数据也将对政策倾向和市场情绪产生直接影响。若零售销售、就业指标及核心 PCE等关键数据持续呈现疲软迹象，将进一步强化市场对"提前降息"的押注；反之，如果数据表现明显 强于预期，则可能削弱部分宽松预期，令黄金短线面临一定压力。 3. 地缘政治局势依旧构成黄金的重要隐性支撑。乌克兰冲突的相关谈判进展、中东局势的潜在波动，以 及全球避险情绪的升温，都可能在关键时 ...

调价周期内，供应过剩预期加剧、地缘风险溢价削减等因素影响国际油价波动下行。国际能源署、美国能源信息署、欧佩克三大机构在最新月报中均判断今 明两年油市将面临供应过剩，其中国际能源署将2026年供应过剩预估上调至409万桶/日。此外，美国正推动乌克兰接受与俄罗斯的和平协议，据称其已起草 停火协议草案，地缘风险溢价有所消退。但另一方面，美国政府结束"停摆"，以及美国原油库存超预期下降，在一定程度提振了市场情绪，并为油价提供支 撑。 央视财经（记者 平凡 张娅芳）记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，受国际油价下跌影响，国内汽柴油价格将于11月24日24时起下调。据国家发展改革委价 格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（11月10日—11月21日）国际油价波动下行。 从11月24日24时起，国内汽、柴油每吨分别下调70元和65元。全国平均来看，92号汽油每升下调0.05元，95号汽油每升下调0.06元，0号柴油每升下调0.06 元。 央视财经记者给您算了一笔账，用92号汽油加满50升油箱将少花2.5元。物流行业以月跑10000公里、百公里油耗在38升的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开 启前，单辆车的燃油成本将下降106元左右 ...

本报记者 杜雨萌 11月24日24时，国内成品油新一轮调价窗口将开启。综合多家机构预测，此次成品油零售价或迎来年内第十次下跌。 据金联创测算，截至11月24日第十个工作日，国内成品油参考的原油品种均价为61.68美元/桶，变化率为-1.21%，对应国 内汽油、柴油零售价分别下调70元/吨和65元/吨。卓创资讯也预计，本次汽油、柴油零售价或每吨分别下调70元、65元，届 时，折合升价92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油分别下调0.05元、0.06元、0.06元。待本次调价落地后，国内实行一省一价的地区 92号汽油将全面进入"6元时代"。 从本轮计价周期（2025年11月10日24时至2025年11月24日24时）来看，国际油价整体呈现宽幅波动走势，未走出单边行 情。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心有关负责人告诉《证券日报》记者，本轮调价周期内，受供应过剩预期加剧、地缘风险溢价 削减等因素影响，国际油价呈现波动下行趋势。展开来看，一方面国际能源署、美国能源信息署、欧佩克三大机构在最新月报 中均判断今明两年油市将面临供应过剩，其中国际能源署将2026年供应过剩预估上调至409万桶/日。此外，近期局部地区地缘 风险溢价也有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, emphasizing the importance of economic data and Federal Reserve policies in determining future trends in the gold market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of the end of the week, spot gold closed at $4,064.90 per ounce, down $12.41 or 0.31% for the day and down $20.21 or 0.49% for the week [1]. - Gold prices are currently facing downward pressure, with a strong support level at $4,000 per ounce and initial resistance at $4,100 [1][2]. - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with gold prices showing a "roller coaster" pattern, briefly dipping below $4,000 before rebounding [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policies - The market perceives a greater than 70% chance of a rate cut next month, but economists suggest a more uncertain outlook [2]. - Recent employment data indicates a trend of job cuts, with an average of 2,500 employees laid off weekly in the private sector [2]. - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes suggest a preference for maintaining current interest rates, with concerns that further cuts could risk inflation [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a phase of adjustment after reaching a historical high of $4,381, with a potential for further declines if key support levels are breached [3][5]. - The upcoming week is expected to see gold prices oscillating between $4,000 and $4,100, influenced by Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical tensions [5]. - Strategies for trading gold include short positions around $4,100 and long positions near $4,000, with specific stop-loss measures recommended [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, emphasizing the importance of understanding supply and demand dynamics over short-term predictions influenced by geopolitical events and monetary policy changes [3][5][19]. Group 1: Short-term Price Predictions - Short-term predictions of gold prices are challenging and often unreliable due to various factors such as interest rate expectations, geopolitical stability, and profit-taking by investors [5][7]. - The correlation between interest rate expectations and gold prices has weakened, making it difficult for investors to rely on traditional analysis methods [5][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Traditional pricing logic for gold has become less effective, necessitating a focus on supply and demand factors [9][19]. - Gold supply has remained stable, with annual supply levels between 4500 tons and 5000 tons since 2015, primarily driven by mining and recycling [13][14]. - Demand for gold is influenced significantly by investment needs and central bank purchases, which can fluctuate by hundreds of tons annually [14][15]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Investment Demand - Central bank purchases of gold have surged due to geopolitical tensions, reflecting concerns over the reliability of the US dollar [15][16]. - Investment demand for gold has increased dramatically, with a year-on-year growth of 87% in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a viable asset [16][17]. - The article suggests that the growing investment demand could drive future increases in gold prices, as more investors allocate funds to gold [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Bank indicates that if Russian oil exports decline significantly, Brent crude oil prices could rise above $85 per barrel, which is substantially higher than the bank's previous forecast of $66 per barrel for 2026 [1] Geopolitical Context - On late October, U.S. President Trump announced sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, related to the Ukraine conflict, marking the most severe measures taken by Washington against Russian enterprises during the ongoing conflict [1] Oil Price Outlook - Barclays reports that the geopolitical situation remains highly tense, but oil flows have not been significantly affected, reiterating that this will pose an upside risk to oil prices [1]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have reached a new high, with an overall increase of 17 CNY per gram on November 13, 2025 [1] - Major brands like Zhou Daxing and Chao Hong Ji have seen significant price increases, with Zhou Daxing's gold priced at 1333 CNY per gram, marking a rise of 20 CNY per gram [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices among stores has expanded to 98 CNY per gram, indicating a growing disparity in pricing [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also surged, with Zhou Daxing's platinum jewelry increasing by 14 CNY per gram, now priced at 656 CNY per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has increased by 15.6 CNY per gram, with varying prices across different brands [2] - The recycling price for gold is reported at 948.30 CNY per gram for general gold, with specific brands like Lao Feng Xiang offering 958.80 CNY per gram [2] Group 4: International Gold Prices - International spot gold prices experienced a significant rise, briefly surpassing 4200 USD per ounce before settling at 4195.26 USD per ounce, reflecting a 1.69% increase [4] - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at 4114.31 USD per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.28% [4] - Analysts suggest that the end of the government shutdown may lead to economic data that supports expectations of a slowdown in the US economy, which could influence gold prices [4]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 4000 points after ten years, with a peak of 4025.7 points reached last Thursday[6] - The power equipment sector led the market with a 4.29% increase, while the communication sector fell by 3.59%[6] Financial Data - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in risk appetite for leveraged funds[6] - Northbound trading volume increased by 19% to an average of 265.7 billion yuan, with stock ETFs seeing a net inflow of 760 million yuan[6] Economic Indicators - Industrial added value growth is expected to decline to approximately 5.5% year-on-year in October[4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decrease by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to drop by 2.2%[4] Investment Trends - Retail sales growth is anticipated to slow to around 1% due to weakened consumption in sectors like automobiles[4] - Export growth is forecasted at 2.5% for October, facing challenges from high base effects[4] Credit and Investment - New credit issuance is expected to remain weak, with an estimated 300 billion yuan in new loans for October[4] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth is projected to rebound but will still show a cumulative decline of about 0.8%[4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the ninth price cut of the year [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of October 27, 2023, gasoline prices will decrease by 265 yuan per ton and diesel prices by 255 yuan per ton, resulting in a reduction of approximately 0.21 yuan for 92-octane gasoline and 0.22 yuan for diesel per liter [1]. - After the adjustment, the price of 92-octane gasoline will range from 6.8 to 6.9 yuan per liter, while diesel will be priced between 6.5 and 6.7 yuan per liter [1]. International Oil Market Analysis - The initial phase of the price adjustment was influenced by a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums due to easing tensions in the Middle East, alongside increased production from OPEC+ [2]. - Brent crude oil prices fell to around 61 USD per barrel, the lowest in six months, but later rebounded due to uncertainties regarding Russian oil supply and postponed US-Russia summit [2]. - Despite the rebound, the average international oil price remains significantly lower than in the previous adjustment cycle, indicating a general downward trend [2]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and ongoing sanctions against certain oil-producing countries may provide short-term support for international oil prices, but the overall market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply [2][3]. - The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth, predicting a surplus of approximately 4 million barrels per day next year, which may limit upward price movements [2].