应该说从9月末到现在债券市场总体表现还可以，收益率有一定程度下行。不过我们要看到，年初以来债市依然呈现调整态势。 现在十年国债的活跃券已经切换为250016，这只债券含有增值税，所以它的收益率会比之前的活跃券更高一些。目前其收益率在1.8%附近，而之前的老 券250011，收益率依然在1.75%以下。总体来看，债券收益率呈下行趋势。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场 基金。 这段时间的收益率下行，伴随着一些我们认为比较积极的因素。首先是央行恢复了国债买卖操作，这是我们之前提到过的、对债券市场非常有益的举措， 因为它能有效缓解市场供需压力。从另一个层面来看，央行在整个资金面也给予了实实在在的呵护，包括潘行长在讲话中也提到要收窄利率波动区间，尤 其是短端利率的波动区间。所以综合来看，我们认为政策面对债券市场给予了一定呵护。 从基本面来看，10月份的情况整体面临一些困难：一方面是10月份本身假期较长的因素，另一方面是进入下半年后，我们此前多项政策的刺激效果如预期 般出现边际回落。这就导致10月份的经济相较于整 ...

Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST) is quiet on Monday. On Friday, the shares gained almost 8.5%. The move came after the company beat earnings expectations and raised guidance.The shares may see some profit-taking, which could put downward pressure on them. This is why Ross Stores is our Stock of the Day.Some traders study a stock's momentum. This is a measurement of how far it has moved in a given period of time.Stocks typically spend most of their time within an average trading range. If a stock is aggressiv ...

Core Viewpoint - Global Payments (GPN) stock is considered a solid value buy due to its current trading below average valuation, reasonable revenue growth, and strong margins [1][5] Current Situation of GPN - GPN has experienced a decline of 34% this year but is now 38% more affordable based on its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio compared to one year ago, and it trades at a lower Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio than the S&P 500 median [5] - The company increased its adjusted operating margin by 110 basis points in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance and value-oriented pricing, with significant margin growth in its core merchant business [6] - Revenue acceleration in the merchant segment is attributed to new customers on the Genius platform and larger deal sizes, indicating enhanced organic growth [6] Strategic Developments - Ongoing strategic transformation includes the expected Worldpay acquisition and Issuer Solutions divestiture in Q1 2026, which are anticipated to enhance scale and market access across 40 new markets [6] - GPN's fundamentals show a reasonable revenue growth of 21.0% LTM and an average of 6.8% over the last three years, with an operating margin average of approximately 19.8% over the same period [9] Valuation Metrics - GPN stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 10.1, which is considered modest despite positive fundamentals [9] - The stock's current P/S ratio is below the average of the last few years, indicating potential for valuation re-rating [10]

储能需求迎来多轮驱动，全球市场有望多点开花 20251123 国内负极电源市场前景乐观，欧陆通具有较好的投资价值，其在行业格 局和出货方面拥有良好历史业绩，并可能继续保持领先地位。服务器电 源（PSU）市场值得关注。 预计 2026 年光伏行业将迎来重要行情，反倾销措施将成为关键催化剂。 房地产政策落地也会产生影响。国内外需求可能远超预期，类似于此前 储能需求被低估的情况，国内潜在机制落地及海外需求都可能直接影响 光伏后端需求。 特高压项目储备提速，与"十五"规划有关。在 AIDC 电源和美国缺电 影响下，国内传统电力设备行情表现良好。年底市场可能出现均值回归 趋势，传统电网具备较好的配置价值。 储能需求也有较好驱动。 摘要 AIDC 配储需求在美国市场显著，预计 2026 年将有接近 4 吉瓦的需求， 若配置 4-5 小时储能，则储能系统容量需求约为 16-20 吉瓦时，占比约 40%，欧洲和东南亚市场也受电力交易政策驱动，储能需求良好。 储能领域投资机会集中在系统侧（阳光电源、阿特斯、天河光能）、 PCS（上能电气）和锂电池材料。锂电池材料受益于储能需求改善，长 期来看价格仍处于上行通道，受动力端固态电池 ...

一轮上涨-回调，一般是几周到几个月。 那也有朋友会问，既然会有这样的特征, 是不是可以涨一波先出来，然后回调后再 进去，岂不是美滋滋。 这个想法很美好,但实际上很难做到。 (1) 每一轮上涨,出现的时间不一样。 甚至说,一轮上涨中,涨幅最大的阶段, 就出现在几个交易日里。错过那几个交易 日，收益就大打折扣。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 少见的千股跌停、指数跌停。 熊市多阴跌，牛市多暴跌。 (2) 一轮牛市中，经常是短期大幅上涨， 之后市场回调。 呈现进三退二，进三退一这样，在波动中 逐渐上涨。 指数基金=估值*盈利+分红。 ·估值主要影响短期收益。低估买入，未来 会在某个时刻出现均值回归，估值上涨。 ·盈利主要影响长期收益。盈利增长才是指 h以也经常提到一句话，当闪电劈卜采的 时候，我们要在场。 (2) 每一轮回调，回调幅度不同。 有的回调只有百分之几，有的达到百分之 十几。 有的时候出来了，希望跌到某个位置再进 去。结果市场没回调多少就继续上行了， 导致踏空，自自丢掉了手里的股票资产。 在牛市里,仓位很重要。 短期涨跌无法预测。但是时间拉长后，股 票基金投资,跟一些指标会有比较强的相 关性。 ▼ ...

今天这篇文章，来和大家聊聊一家特殊的对冲基金公司：文艺复兴。 文艺复兴科技公司成立于1982年，由美国数学家詹姆斯·西蒙斯（Jim Simons）创建。公司旗下最著名的旗舰基金为大奖章Medallion Fund，据称自 1988年以来扣除费用后的年化回报率约为39%，连巴菲特和索罗斯都达不到这种回报水平。在鼎盛时期，文艺复兴管理资产规模曾接近1000亿美元以上。 文艺复兴对外开放投资的基金规模有一定控制，旗舰基金大奖章仅限内部员工及其亲属参与【1】。 基于西蒙斯的数学家背景，以及文艺复兴基金的量化交易策略，大奖章出色的业绩回报可以说是数学的胜利，是复杂算法和海量算力碾压我们这些在市场上 摸爬滚打的凡人智慧的明证。但若深入探究这些量化巨头的成功奥秘，我们会发现一个既反直觉又令人心酸的真相： 他们最大的优势，与其说是破解了金 融市场这个"物理难题"，不如说是精通了人类反复犯错的"心理难题" 。西蒙斯团队的成功并非来自对宏观经济或企业基本面的高深洞察，而是源于对市场 参与者情绪和非理性行为的系统性捕捉和利用。换言之，量化巨头们并非战胜了市场，而是战胜了我们这些普通人身上那些可预测的人性弱点，在我们人类 的情绪陷阱 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent global market downturn, highlighting a liquidity shock that has led to a collective decline in various asset classes, including global stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold, with the Asia-Pacific region experiencing the largest drop of over 3% in Japan and South Korea [4][8]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining core positions in quality equity investments, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, and suggests that the main investment themes remain unchanged despite market fluctuations [7][10]. - The article advises investors to lower their expectations and set realistic benchmarks for returns, suggesting that the focus should be on long-term investment in quality companies rather than short-term gains [13][15]. Group 2 - The article highlights the need for investors to avoid crowded trades and to be cautious about entering popular sectors unless they have a deep understanding of industry trends, using examples from the lithium battery sector and the banking sector to illustrate the risks of chasing hot stocks [17][22]. - It advocates for dynamic portfolio balancing and the acquisition of undervalued assets, suggesting that investors should assess their holdings and consider diversifying across different sectors and regions to mitigate risks [24][27]. - The article mentions the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, noting the impact of significant capital raises on valuations and the mixed results from companies like Xiaomi, which reported a 20% year-on-year revenue increase but faces concerns about sustaining growth in its automotive business [34].

以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：做配置的小雪 来源：雪球 我从去年10月28日开始，在雪球通过三分法做资产配置，在当时遭到了很多质疑，很多朋友认为我太激进了，应该再等等。 结果一年过去了，评论区的画风变成了：牛市就这收益率不高啊。 和 牛市 比 收益率 ， 这叫相对收益思维 ， 但我的目标是追求绝对收益。 选相对收益还是绝对收益，投资策略不一样，投资结果也不同，今天和大家详细聊聊～ 一 、 如何理解相对收益和绝对收益？ 在投资中，关注自己实实在在赚了多少，是10%还是20%，这叫 绝对收益 。 相比大盘或基准跑赢了多少，这叫 相对收益 。 举个例子，投资A股， 绝对收益 想的是，不管牛市、熊市、震荡市，都要赚到钱。 而 相对收益 想的是能不能跑赢大盘，也就是牛市比大盘赚的多，熊市比大盘亏的少。 相对收益 想要跑赢大盘，靠的是有效的择时和择股能力。 做配置的小雪 . 绝对收益 想要穿越市场周期，靠的是策略和纪律，比如资产 ...

Market Sentiment and Trends - Current market adjustments are seen as a natural response to previously extreme sentiment, with no significant disruption to long-term trends [3][4] - Improvement in market breadth is noted, particularly in healthcare and financial sectors, indicating a positive shift [4][6] Sector Performance - High-flying stocks in the Russell 3000, particularly in quantum and uranium sectors, are approaching oversold conditions, which may signal a potential rebound [2] - Healthcare and energy sectors are showing better performance globally compared to the US, suggesting a synchronization with international trends [6][7] Energy Sector Insights - The energy sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with refiners and certain marketing and equipment names showing relative strength, while overall sentiment remains lukewarm [11][12] - Stability in crude oil prices is crucial for the energy sector's performance; a significant drop could pose risks, but current conditions appear manageable [13]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Multi-cycle timing model for domestic interest rate price-volume trends **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to capture interest rate trend patterns, identifying support and resistance lines of interest rate data. It provides timing signals based on the shape of interest rate movements across different investment cycles [11][24][25] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Data Input**: Utilize 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond YTM data [11][24][25] 2. **Kernel Regression**: Apply kernel regression to identify support and resistance lines for interest rate trends [11][24][25] 3. **Cycle Analysis**: - Long cycle: Monthly frequency - Medium cycle: Bi-weekly frequency - Short cycle: Weekly frequency 4. **Signal Generation**: - If at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs of support lines and the trend is not upward, allocate fully to long-duration bonds - If at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs but the trend is upward, allocate 50% to medium-duration bonds and 50% to long-duration bonds - If at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs of resistance lines and the trend is not downward, allocate fully to short-duration bonds - If at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs but the trend is downward, allocate 50% to medium-duration bonds and 50% to short-duration bonds - Otherwise, allocate equally across short, medium, and long durations [24][25][29] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates robust performance with high annualized returns and low drawdowns across different cycles [25][28][33] Model Backtesting Results - **5-Year YTM Model**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.5% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.91 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.21% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.74 - Long-term excess return: 1.07% - Short-term excess return: 0.87% - Historical win rate for annual absolute returns: 100% - Historical win rate for annual excess returns: 100% [25][37] - **10-Year YTM Model**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.09% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.22 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.64% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.57 - Long-term excess return: 1.65% - Short-term excess return: 1.43% - Historical win rate for annual absolute returns: 100% - Historical win rate for annual excess returns: 100% [28][37] - **30-Year YTM Model**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.37% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.73 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 3.28% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.59 - Long-term excess return: 2.41% - Short-term excess return: 2.68% - Historical win rate for annual absolute returns: 94.44% - Historical win rate for annual excess returns: 94.44% [33][37] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Interest rate structure indicators (level, term, convexity) **Factor Construction Idea**: Transform YTM data into structural indicators to analyze the interest rate market from a mean-reversion perspective [8] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Level Structure**: - Formula: $ \text{Level} = \text{Average YTM across maturities} $ - Current reading: 1.61%, positioned at 21%, 12%, and 6% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical views, respectively [8] 2. **Term Structure**: - Formula: $ \text{Term} = \text{Difference between long and short maturity YTM} $ - Current reading: 0.41%, positioned at 27%, 17%, and 18% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical views, respectively [8] 3. **Convexity Structure**: - Formula: $ \text{Convexity} = \text{Second derivative of YTM curve} $ - Current reading: -0.04%, positioned at 10%, 6%, and 5% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical views, respectively [8] **Factor Evaluation**: These indicators provide a comprehensive view of the interest rate market's structural dynamics, aiding in timing and allocation decisions [8] Factor Backtesting Results - **Level Structure**: Current reading: 1.61% [8] - **Term Structure**: Current reading: 0.41% [8] - **Convexity Structure**: Current reading: -0.04% [8]