投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 贵金属迎来反弹，其他商品涨跌互现 ——中信期货晨报20251120 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 20 10 11 1 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | | 周皮涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 李度涨跌幅 | | 今年涨跌幅 | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4565.2 | 0.22% | -0.77% | -1.43% | -1.14% | 16.43% | | | 上证50期货 | 3011 | 0.45% | -0.64% | -0.14% | 0.74% | 12.43% | | | 中证500期货 | 7054.8 | -0 35% | FINLEW | -2.59% | -3 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong International Financial Leaders Investment Summit opened on November 4, attracting officials from mainland financial regulatory bodies, Hong Kong government financial officials, and executives from major global financial institutions to discuss current hot topics of interest to global investors [1] - Hong Kong's financial market has shown exceptional performance this year, with an average daily trading volume exceeding $32 billion, doubling compared to last year; 80 IPO projects were completed in the first ten months, raising over $26 billion, making it the world's leader in IPO fundraising [1] - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting reforms to maintain this momentum, allowing overseas companies to raise funds and enhancing trade risk management efficiency, while also promoting RMB stock trading [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy this year, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity by lowering the reserve requirement ratio, and has taken measures to reduce financing costs for society [2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, significant achievements in the opening of China's capital market to foreign investment include comprehensive industry access, deepening market connectivity, and steady progress in product openness [2] - The current global economic and financial landscape is facing increasing uncertainties, making it crucial to accurately grasp international economic trends and promote coordinated development between mainland and Hong Kong capital markets [2] Group 3 - Support for mainland insurance companies to issue catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities in Hong Kong is being promoted, along with financial service facilitation in the Greater Bay Area [3] - Strengthening cooperation in technology, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance between mainland and Hong Kong is a focus, leveraging Hong Kong's advantages in technological innovation and intellectual property protection [3] - The opening of China's financial sector is increasingly welcomed by foreign investment institutions, with a consensus forming around investing in and deepening engagement with China [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on: production end is differentiated with some开工率 decreasing and some increasing; commercial housing transactions decline marginally while land supply area rises continuously; prices are stable with an upward trend; shipping prices at home and abroad show opposite trends. Short - term attention should be paid to anti - involution, incremental policy implementation, and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.42 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 pct, and rebar output increased by 5.52 tons [2][9]. - Petroleum asphalt: Operating rate increased by 0.4 pct [9]. - Chemical industry: PX operating rate increased by 1.6 pct, PTA operating rate increased by 2.4 pct [9]. - Automobile tires: Full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.24 pct, semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.26 pct [10]. Demand - Real estate: Commercial housing transaction area declined marginally, inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, land supply area increased continuously, and residential land transaction premium rate increased [13]. - Movie box office: Decreased by 0.53 billion yuan compared with the previous week [13]. - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 0.6 million vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales increased by 1.5 million vehicles [15]. - Shipping index: SCFI increased by 10.49%, CCFI increased by 2.89%, BDI decreased by 1.26% [18]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.32% to $65.07 per barrel, coking coal futures price increased by 3.52% to 1295.5 yuan per ton [20]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.51%, + 1.1%, and + 1.01% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 1.83% [21]. - Agricultural products: The overall price rose rapidly, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products 200 increasing by 2.23%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by + 0.39%, - 0.14%, + 5.96%, and + 0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [23]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: Beijing decreased slightly, Shanghai increased slightly [26]. - Flight volume: Both domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) and international flight volumes decreased [28]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [28].

Core Viewpoints - The October PMI shows weakness primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels impacting production indices [2][68] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 50.1% [8][67] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI's decline is characterized by a more significant drop in the production index compared to new orders, with the production index falling to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2][9] - The new orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relatively stable demand compared to production [2][9] - The production index's drop is attributed to the retreat from a "production rush" effect and high inventory levels, which constrained the upward movement in October [14][68] Group 2: Demand Structure and External Factors - The demand structure shows a divergence between domestic and international markets, with new export orders significantly declining by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, marking one of the lowest points this year [3][18] - Industries heavily impacted by the drop in new export orders include high-tech and consumer goods, with their respective PMI indices also declining [3][18] - The fluctuation in tariff policies has contributed to the significant drop in new export orders, affecting overall manufacturing performance [3][69] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment Trends - Domestic demand remains resilient, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries and construction [23][69] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges, although recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures [23][70] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector has improved, indicating potential recovery in the near future [23][70] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities [51][29] - The employment index within the service sector increased, suggesting a positive trend in labor market conditions [55][51] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges in manufacturing, the high inventory levels and external disturbances are expected to ease, supported by proactive fiscal policies [4][35] - The overall manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience in the long term, with ongoing monitoring of marginal changes in manufacturing conditions [4][70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic consumption and effective investment as a strategic foundation for China's economic development, aiming to enhance the internal circulation of the economy [2][5][15] - The article highlights that in the first three quarters, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36,587.7 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%, with a notable increase in goods retail sales by 4.6% and a slower growth in catering revenue at 3.3% [2] - It is noted that the growth of service consumption outpaced that of goods consumption, indicating a shift in consumer behavior, although challenges remain with insufficient effective demand [5][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the relationship between boosting consumption and effective investment, stating that while consumption is prioritized, investment must be effective, focusing on sectors like AI and new infrastructure rather than traditional infrastructure [6][9] - The concept of "effective investment" is defined, emphasizing the need for investments in areas that support high-tech advancements and sustainable development, such as energy supply for AI computing [6][9] - The article mentions that the new policy financial tools introduced in the fourth quarter aim to support new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, contrasting with previous tools that included traditional infrastructure [9] Group 3 - The article stresses the importance of public consumption in enhancing private consumption, particularly through social security and welfare programs, to support low- and middle-income groups [11][12] - It highlights the necessity of developing the service industry to absorb employment, especially as traditional industries become more automated [13] - The article suggests that relaxing regulations in certain sectors could stimulate domestic consumption among high-income groups, thereby creating job opportunities and increasing tax revenue [14]

Core Points - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of building a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern [1] - The session highlighted the need to boost consumption and effective investment, while breaking down barriers to the construction of a unified national market [1][6] - Recent consumption data shows that China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.5877 trillion yuan, growing by 4.5% in the first three quarters of the year [1] Group 1: Consumption and Investment - The core task of macro policy in the next phase is to significantly boost consumption, with a focus on developing the service sector to absorb employment [4] - The relationship between boosting consumption and effective investment is crucial, with the emphasis on "effective" investment being a key distinction [7] - Effective investment should prioritize sectors like AI and new infrastructure, moving away from traditional infrastructure investments that have seen a decline [7][10] Group 2: New Infrastructure and Market Demand - New infrastructure projects should be aligned with real market demand, ensuring resources are allocated to areas that enhance economic density and facilitate the flow of factors [9] - The government is expected to introduce new policy financial tools to stimulate fixed investment, focusing on digital economy and green technology rather than traditional infrastructure [10] Group 3: Social Welfare and Employment - The Fourth Plenary Session stressed the importance of improving public welfare and ensuring common prosperity, particularly in the context of an aging population [12] - Public consumption spending is expected to expand rigidly, focusing on social security, childcare, and basic public services to encourage private consumption [12][13] - The development of the service sector is seen as a key area for creating quality employment opportunities, especially as traditional industries become more automated [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic consumption and effective investment as key strategies for China's economic development, particularly in the context of the recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1][4]. Group 1: Domestic Market and Consumption - The Fourth Plenary Session highlighted the need to strengthen the domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the interaction between supply and demand [1][4]. - In the first three quarters, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36,587.7 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%, with retail sales of goods increasing by 4.6% and catering revenue growing by 3.3% [1][4]. - The article notes that while service consumption is growing faster than goods consumption, there are signs of insufficient effective demand, as evidenced by the 0.9% growth in catering revenue in September [6][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article discusses the distinction between "effective investment" and general investment, emphasizing that investment must be effective, while consumption should be prioritized unconditionally [7][4]. - It suggests that to enhance domestic circulation, significant efforts are needed to boost consumption, which in turn will drive new supply and create new demand [6][4]. - The focus of new infrastructure investment should shift from traditional infrastructure to areas like electricity and computing power, which are essential for supporting high-tech advancements [7][10]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The article indicates that the government is expected to introduce incremental policies in the fourth quarter, with a focus on new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, aiming to stabilize investment growth [10][15]. - A new policy tool involving 500 billion yuan is highlighted, which will primarily target new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, contrasting with previous tools that included traditional infrastructure [10][15]. - The article stresses the importance of public consumption in driving private consumption, particularly through social security and welfare measures aimed at low- and middle-income groups [12][14].

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 53,732.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with growth accelerating by 2.3 percentage points compared to January-August[1] - In September alone, industrial enterprise profits grew by 21.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month acceleration of 1.2 percentage points from August[1] - The operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from January-August, achieving CNY 74.7 per hundred yuan of assets[1] Group 2: Cost and Profitability Metrics - The operating costs of industrial enterprises rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to January-August[1] - The operating income profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.3% in the first three quarters[1] - The average collection period for accounts receivable was 69.2 days, shortened by 0.9 days compared to January-August[16] Group 3: Industrial Activity and Price Trends - The industrial added value grew by 6.2% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as January-August, supporting current industrial enterprise profitability[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the PPI for production materials both showed negative year-on-year growth, declining by 2.8% and 3.3% respectively, although the rate of decline slightly narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Manufacturing contributed positively to the overall profitability of industrial enterprises, with a profit increase of 9.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.5 percentage points from January-August[10]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.16%, the 10-year main contract up 0.05%, the 5-year main contract up 0.05%, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% [1] - The yields on major interbank rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down 1.9 basis points to 1.9010%, the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield down 1 basis point to 1.7580%, the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield down 1.35 basis points to 2.0725%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield down 2.8 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 159.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a bid amount of 159.5 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 159.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 91 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 68.5 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market showed an overall balanced funding condition, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions fluctuating around 1.31% [2] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using certificates of deposit and credit bonds at around 1.4%, slightly lower than the previous day [2] - The central bank's shift to net injections is aimed at supporting liquidity amid tax periods and month-end pressures, with expectations for continued liquidity support [2] Operational Recommendations - The bond market experienced fluctuations but lacks direction due to new fund redemption fee regulations and upcoming significant meetings [3] - Two scenarios are considered: if incremental policies are below expectations, investors can bet on yield spread recovery and consider long positions in long-term bonds; if policies exceed expectations, short-term risk appetite may rise, potentially suppressing bonds [3] - In a supportive liquidity environment, a pullback in the bond market could present buying opportunities if T2512 falls below 107.4 [3] - Given the current uncertainties, a cautious approach is recommended, focusing on observing market conditions rather than aggressive strategies [3]

Economic Growth Overview - In Q1 and Q2 of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively, but slowed to 4.8% in Q3, resulting in a cumulative growth of 5.2% for the first three quarters[1] - The nominal GDP growth for Q3 was 3.7%, with a cumulative nominal GDP growth of 4.1% for the first three quarters[10] Reasons for Q3 Slowdown - The slowdown is attributed to reduced macro policy support in the second half of the year, with a decrease in funding from 162 billion yuan in Q1 to 138 billion yuan in Q3 for consumption incentives[11] - The effectiveness of certain policies, such as the trade-in program for durable goods, has diminished, leading to a decline in retail sales growth from 5.1% in H1 to 3.0% in September[11] - There is a lack of internal growth momentum, with the average consumption propensity dropping from 68.6% in Q2 to 68.1% in Q3[11] Positive Economic Indicators - Industrial capacity utilization has stabilized, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a year-on-year improvement, and profits for large industrial enterprises turning positive[14] - Exports remained resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, supported by diversified markets and competitive pricing[15] - High-tech industries saw a 9.6% increase in production value, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and industrial robots[16] Q4 Economic Outlook - The economic performance in Q4 will depend on the introduction of new policies, with a potential GDP growth of 4.8% if policies are strengthened, or a decline to 4.6% if current trends continue[23] - Achieving the annual growth target of around 5% is considered highly likely, with projections estimating a final growth rate of 5.0% to 5.1%[23] Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to increase fiscal policy efforts, with a recommendation for the 2026 fiscal deficit to be no less than 4%[24] - Monetary policy should leverage the Federal Reserve's rate cuts to further reduce reserve requirements and interest rates[27] - A comprehensive approach to real estate policy is recommended to stabilize the market, including the establishment of a "Real Estate Stability Fund" of approximately 2 trillion yuan[29]