Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 18,649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 22,582.5 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][8][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][8][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure is partly due to the high base effect from the same period in 2024, where expenditure had increased significantly [3][13][80]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was at a historically low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has also contributed to the decline in expenditure growth [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - As new incremental funds are deployed, the support from fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures for the economy is expected to accelerate towards the end of the year [5][82]. - Two types of incremental funds have been established to address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The focus of these funds includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly supporting economically significant provinces [4][24][82]. Group 4: Revenue Trends - Broad fiscal revenue in October 2025 decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with government fund revenue dropping significantly by 18.4% [6][28][83]. - General fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 3.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue saw a substantial decline of 33% [40][83]. - The completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in October was 9.3%, higher than 9% in 2024 and the five-year average of 8.8% [6][28][83].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure plummeted to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points compared to September[1] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure is attributed to three main factors: high base effect from 2024, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a drop of 3.8 percentage points from September, with government fund revenue down by -18.4%[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[3] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and support for commercial banks, has been largely completed by mid-August[3] Future Outlook - With the implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[4] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[4]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure reached 225,825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure dropped to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points from September[1] - The completion rate of the broad fiscal expenditure budget in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure was attributed to a high base effect from 2024, a drop in revenue, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a decline of 3.8 percentage points compared to September[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[12] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other projects, limited the available financing for October[12] Future Outlook - With the introduction of 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[18] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[14]

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, growing by 2% [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure was partly due to the high base effect from the same month in 2024, where expenditure had surged by 20.4% year-on-year [3][13]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was significantly lower, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has been largely completed by mid-August, limiting the available resources for October [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been introduced: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and another 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The implementation of these funds is expected to enhance the support for the economy towards the end of the year, potentially leading to a recovery in broad fiscal expenditure growth [5][82]. - The focus of the new policy financial instruments includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly aimed at supporting major economic provinces [4][24][82].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - General fiscal expenditure from January to October decreased year-on-year to 5.2%, with a significant drop in October to -18.8%[3] - Total public budget revenue reached 18.6 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8% year-on-year, while expenditure was 22.6 trillion yuan, up by 2.0%[7] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in October showed a positive year-on-year growth for the seventh consecutive month, at 8.6%, while non-tax revenue plummeted by -32.8% due to high base effects[10] - Major tax categories such as VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax contributed positively, with growth rates of 7.2%, 4.4%, 7.3%, and 27.3% respectively[10] Expenditure Analysis - Infrastructure spending saw a notable reduction, with declines in traditional sectors like energy conservation and transportation ranging from 10% to 30%[10] - Social security and technology expenditures turned negative in October, with year-on-year changes of -0.1% and -0.9% respectively[10] Land Sales and Debt Issuance - Revenue from land sales continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of -27.5% in October, reflecting a broader trend in land transaction values[10] - Approximately 4.5 trillion yuan of general and ordinary government bonds were issued from January to October, with an expected 0.6 trillion yuan yet to be spent[10] Budget Execution and Risks - General fiscal revenue is on par with the initial budget at 0.2%, but expenditure is lagging behind the budget target of 9.3%[10] - Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in the real estate sector and potential discrepancies between budget execution and final accounts[9]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown stable performance in 2023, leading to a recovery in fiscal revenue, supported by proactive fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1][11]. Fiscal Revenue and Taxation - In the first three quarters of 2023, the broad fiscal revenue reached 19.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.4%, marking the first positive growth in fiscal revenue this year [1]. - The general public budget revenue was 16.39 trillion yuan, with tax revenue at 13.27 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively [2]. - Tax revenue growth turned positive in recent months, with September showing an 8.7% year-on-year increase, the highest for the year, driven by improved corporate performance and active capital market transactions [2][3]. Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue in the general public budget decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 312.12 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 13.5% [4]. - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to a high base from previous years and stricter regulations on administrative penalties [4][7]. Government Bonds and Fiscal Expenditure - The net financing of government bonds reached 1.146 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 428 billion yuan year-on-year [10]. - Fiscal expenditure for the same period was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with significant allocations towards social security, education, and healthcare [11]. - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds to support major projects, with a total expenditure of 4.21 trillion yuan from various bond types [14][15]. Real Estate and Land Revenue - The revenue from government funds, primarily from land sales, decreased by 0.5% year-on-year to 30.72 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue dropping by 4.2% [7][8]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have led to a narrowing decline in land sale revenues and related taxes [8]. Investment and Economic Stability - The introduction of new policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan aims to enhance project capital and stimulate total investment by approximately 4.8 trillion yuan [15]. - The fiscal policies are designed to support local governments in managing existing debts and facilitating economic recovery [15].

Core Insights - In September, national tax revenue increased by 8.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate of the year [1] - The overall fiscal revenue in the first three quarters reached 19.46 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 0.4%, indicating a recovery in fiscal income [2][3] - The growth in tax revenue is primarily driven by improved corporate performance and active capital market transactions [3] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - The general public budget revenue for the first three quarters was 16.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while tax revenue reached 13.27 trillion yuan, growing by 0.7% [3] - Fiscal expenditure for the same period was 28.30 trillion yuan, up 7.9%, exceeding the economic growth rate of 5.2% [2] - Expenditure on social security and employment, education, and health care grew by 10%, 5.4%, and 4.7% respectively, reflecting a focus on social welfare [12] Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue growth has turned positive after being negative earlier in the year, with September's growth significantly higher than August's by 5.3 percentage points [3] - The capital market's performance has positively influenced tax revenue, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 110.5% year-on-year [3] - The decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) has also contributed to the recent tax revenue growth [4] Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue in the general public budget decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, contrasting with a 13.5% increase in the previous year [5] - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to a high base from previous years and stricter regulation on administrative penalties [5][9] Government Fund Revenue - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, was 30.72 trillion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue decreasing by 4.2% [10] - The decline in land sales revenue is expected to narrow due to policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10] Debt Financing and Investment - Net financing from government bonds reached 1.146 trillion yuan, an increase of 428 billion yuan year-on-year [11] - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds to support major projects, with a total expenditure of 4.21 trillion yuan from various bond types [15] - New policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan have been introduced to enhance project capital, expected to drive total project investment by 4.8 trillion yuan [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting a slowdown in broad fiscal spending and the need for monitoring the progress of new fiscal funds [1][8]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1][8]. - Broad fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September 2025, recovering by 2.9 percentage points compared to August, while broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, down 3.8 percentage points from August [2][9]. Group 2: Budget Completion and Trends - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first three quarters was 68.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 69.9%, and for broad fiscal expenditure, it was 67.1%, also below the five-year average of 68.5% [2][9]. - The decline in broad fiscal spending is attributed to the end of large-scale government debt financing support, with a total issuance of 10.3 trillion yuan in net financing and new bonds by September 28, 2025, achieving an issuance progress of 87% [2][14]. Group 3: Incremental Fiscal Funds and Future Outlook - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been established, including a new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan, with over 100 billion yuan already allocated to sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence [3][19]. - The upcoming meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee in late October may involve discussions on new government debt limits, which could impact the allocation of fiscal resources [3][23]. Group 4: Revenue Improvement and Spending Trends - Broad fiscal revenue showed marginal improvement, with general fiscal revenue increasing by 2.6% year-on-year in September 2025, while government fund revenue rose by 5.6% [4][28]. - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, contributing to a further drop in broad fiscal expenditure growth, which was 2.3% year-on-year in September, down from August [4][51].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the combined revenue growth rate of the first and second accounts was 0% (previous value 0%) while the combined expenditure growth rate was 8.9% (previous value 9.3%) indicating stable revenue and a slight slowdown in expenditure growth[2] - The revenue improvement was primarily driven by a significant increase in stamp duty, which contributed 0.8 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[5] Tax Revenue Insights - Stamp duty (including securities transaction stamp duty) saw a year-on-year growth of 27.4% (previous value 20.7%), with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 81.7% (previous value 62.5%)[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.6503 million, a 165% increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting strong market activity[15] Government Fund and Land Revenue - Government fund revenue showed a cumulative growth rate of -1.4% (previous value -0.7%), with land transfer revenue in August amounting to 231.3 billion yuan (previous value 267.9 billion yuan) and a cumulative growth rate of -4.7% (previous value -4.6%) indicating seasonal low performance[17] - The land market's performance is expected to depend heavily on the recovery of the real estate market, which currently shows weak demand[17] Debt Issuance and Expenditure Dynamics - The issuance of government bonds slowed down, with a total of 10.46 trillion yuan issued from January to August, representing a progress rate of 66.4%, which is lower than the previous year's rate by 1.9 percentage points[20] - Expenditure growth for the first account was 3.1% (previous value 3.4%), while the second account's expenditure growth rate was 30% (previous value 31.7%) indicating a slight decline in expenditure growth due to the slowdown in special bond issuance[21] Economic Risks - Risks include the potential for domestic economic recovery to fall short of expectations, policy implementation delays, and significant weaknesses in the real estate market[23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first seven months of 2025, highlighting a slight increase in revenue but a notable decrease in expenditure growth, particularly in government debt support, while spending on people's livelihoods and service sectors is accelerating [2][3][69]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - In July 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to June, while broad fiscal expenditure rose by 12.1%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from June [3][9][70]. - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first seven months was 56.3%, in line with the average of the past five years, while the expenditure completion rate was 51%, slightly below the average of 51.7% [3][9][70]. Group 2: Changes in Fiscal Support and Spending - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure growth may be partly due to the end of large-scale government debt financing support, with a fiscal revenue deficit of 5.6 trillion yuan in July, only increasing by 0.4 trillion yuan from June [3][14][70]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the 1,880 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment updates supported by long-term special bonds had been fully allocated, indicating a reduction in government debt support for fiscal expenditure [3][14][70]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Spending Trends - Despite the overall decline in broad fiscal expenditure growth, spending related to people's livelihoods and service sectors has accelerated, with health and social security employment expenditures growing by 14.2% and 13.1% respectively, significantly higher than in June [4][20][71]. - Expenditures in cultural tourism, media, and education also saw increases, with growth rates of 7% and 4.6%, respectively, both improving compared to June [4][20][71]. - The structure of fiscal expenditure is expected to become more differentiated, particularly with the implementation of policies such as childcare subsidies and dual interest subsidies [4][26][71].