（2）高风险加权资产增速可能会影响内生资本增长可持续性。25H1 公司风险加权资产增速为 18.73%，而公司去掉分红之后的年化ROE 增速为10.71%，低于加权风险资产增速8.02 个百分点，公司 高速的扩张可能会降低内生资本补充的可持续性。 投资建议：公司位于经济大省，近年来扩表速度较快；同时公司经营稳健，资产质量优秀，基本面有韧 性，分红率一直保持在30%以上。公司兼具高增长与高股息的特点，属于进可攻退可守的标的。25 年 二季度业绩保持中高速，在政策引导长期资金入市的导向下，投资价值凸显，建议积极关注。 风险提示：经济下行超预期；宏观政策力度不及预期；存款竞争加剧。 江苏银行披露2025 年半年报。25H1 营业收入、PPOP、归母利润同比增速分别为7.78%、7.89%、 8.05%，增速分别较25Q1 变动+1.57pct、+0.01pct、-0.11pct，业绩保持平稳。累计业绩驱动上，规模高 增和有效税率下降是带动业绩增长的主要动力，息差收窄、其他非息、拨备计提是主要负贡献。 核心观点：亮点：（1）资负扩张继续加速，非信贷资产高增。在资产端，25H1末生息资产同比增速高 达30.51%，在2 ...

投资要点 息差环比下行 测算25Q2 江苏银行息差环比下降18bp 至1.62%，资产收益率下行幅度大于负债成本率。①25Q2 江苏银 行资产收益率环比下行26bp 至3.49%，受贷款利率和债券市场利率下行影响，25H1 贷款和债券收益率 分别较24H2 下降17bp、31bp。 ②25Q2 江苏银行负债成本率环比下行9bp 至1.83%，随着高息存款到期和同业负债续作，存款和同业负 债成本率延续下降趋势。25H1 存款、发行债券、同业负债成本分别较24H2 下降24bp、20bp、20bp。考 虑贷款降幅和存款降幅基本匹配，预计后续息差降幅有望收窄。 资产质量改善 江苏银行业绩维持高增，息差环比下行，资产质量改善。 数据概览 25H1 江苏银行营收、归母净利润同比分别+7.8%、+8.0%，增速环比25Q1 分别提升1.6pc、-0.1pc； 25Q2 末江苏银行不良率环比下降2bp 至0.84%，拨备覆盖率环比下降12pc 至331%。 营收环比改善 江苏银行25H1 营收和利润增速均维持大个位数增长，符合市场预期。①江苏银行25H1 营收增速较 25Q1 改善，主要得益于其他非息拖累减弱，同时利息净收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank, with a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.74 times for 2025 [11]. Core Insights - Changshu Bank reported a revenue of 6.06 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.97 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [4][7]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of approximately 490% [4][11]. - The bank has adopted a strategy focusing on smaller loans and credit, with 70% of new loans in the first half of 2025 being below 10 million yuan [5][7]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the bank's net interest income was 4.64 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while non-interest income surged by 57% [7][13]. - The bank's total loans reached 251.47 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.2% compared to the previous year [13]. - The bank's cost-to-income ratio improved to 34.56%, down from 36.87% in 2023, indicating better operational efficiency [13]. Dividend Policy - Changshu Bank announced an interim dividend of 0.15 yuan per share, representing a payout ratio of approximately 25.3%, which is an increase from 19.8% in 2024 [7][11]. Loan and Deposit Structure - The bank's loan growth slowed to 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025, with a significant portion of new loans being smaller in size [5][10]. - Deposit growth remained robust at nearly 10%, with an increase in the proportion of demand deposits [5][7]. Asset Quality - The bank's proactive measures in asset management have led to a stable NPL generation rate of 1.05% for the first half of 2025, with significant recoveries from previously written-off loans [11][12]. - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a focus on managing risks associated with personal business loans [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant rise in the banking sector does not provide a straightforward investment conclusion, as the market is complex and influenced by various factors [2]. Short-term Gains Not a Decision Basis - Short-term price increases can affect public opinion but should not be the basis for investment decisions. Historical examples show that prices can continue to rise or fall dramatically after a short-term surge [4]. Need for Improvement in Interest Margins - Despite low bad debt rates and high capital adequacy ratios, the banking sector faces risks from low interest margins, which are at historically low levels. Improvement in these margins is tied to the overall economic recovery [6][7]. Valuation Considerations - The lowest valuations for the banking sector have passed, with current valuations still not high. The relative attractiveness of bank stocks is decreasing as prices rise, especially considering high leverage and potential bad debt risks [9]. Differences Among Banks - There are significant differences in operational performance and valuation among banks. Investors should consider various factors such as bad debt generation, net interest margin changes, asset composition, capital adequacy, and management quality when evaluating banks [11].

Group 1 - Government financing continues to support social financing, with M1 growth improving. As of the end of May, the social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, while M2 and M1 grew by 7.9% and 2.3% respectively [5][6][7] - The new corporate medium and long-term loans decreased by 1,700 million yuan year-on-year, reflecting the substitution effect of government debt and corporate bonds [6][7] - The government issued 14,633 million yuan in new government bonds in May, which is an increase of 2,367 million yuan compared to the same period last year, supporting a rapid growth in social financing [7][8] Group 2 - Global asset review indicates that the stock market mostly declined, while crude oil prices rebounded significantly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [12][13] - Brent crude oil prices surged over 7% on June 13, with concerns about supply disruptions from Iran potentially affecting global oil production [14] - The domestic equity market saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.75% to 3,377 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext also experiencing losses [19][20] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stable dividends and recovery potential in investment strategies, particularly in state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks [11] - The report suggests that the overall asset quality remains stable, despite the need for further confirmation regarding retail asset risks [11][22] - The report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach in credit issuance, focusing on both total volume and structural optimization to support consumption and innovation [7][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector demonstrates strong resilience in fundamentals, with stable profitability and asset quality. In Q1 2025, commercial banks achieved a net profit of 656.8 billion, with a year-on-year profit growth decline of 2.3% [4][5]. - The report highlights that the decline in profit growth is consistent with the previous year, with non-interest income contributing 25% to total revenue, an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the stability of asset quality, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.51%, slightly up by 1 basis point from the end of the previous year [23][24]. Summary by Sections Profitability and Revenue - In Q1 2025, the profitability of commercial banks decreased by 2.3%, with state-owned banks showing a profit growth of 0.1%, while joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experienced declines of 4.5%, 6.7%, and 2% respectively [5][7]. - The report notes that the net interest margin (NIM) narrowed to 1.43%, down 9 basis points year-on-year, with state-owned banks having a NIM of 1.33% [15][18]. Credit and Asset Quality - The report indicates that credit issuance remains strong, with total assets of commercial banks growing at a rate of 7.2% year-on-year. New loans and non-credit assets increased by 9.1 trillion and 4.6 trillion respectively [8][9]. - The NPL ratio remains stable at 1.51%, with a provision coverage ratio above 200%, indicating a robust capacity to absorb potential losses [23][24]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the risk-weighted assets (RWA) of commercial banks grew by 6.4%, leading to a slight decline in capital adequacy ratios across various bank types [29][30]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks stands at 10.7%, reflecting a decrease from the previous year [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, particularly large state-owned banks, which exhibit solid investment value due to their high dividend rates [31][44]. - It also highlights the potential of mid-sized banks with convertible bonds, which have shown strong performance recently [44][46].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the overall operating income, pre-provision profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks for 2024 are expected to grow at rates of 0.08%, -0.72%, and 2.35% respectively. In Q1 2025, these growth rates are projected to decline to -1.72%, -2.15%, and -1.20%, indicating a downward trend in performance due to the impact of interest rate adjustments and market fluctuations [3][10][13] - The report emphasizes that the non-interest income growth of banks has slowed down due to market volatility, which has affected trading positions and overall performance [4][10] - The asset quality of listed banks is showing slight improvement, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing from 1.24% in 2024 to 1.23% in Q1 2025, and the overall provision coverage ratio remaining stable around 239.91% in 2024 and 237.92% in Q1 2025 [4][10][13] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Repricing and Market Fluctuations - The report notes that the combination of repricing impacts and market volatility has led to a decline in performance for Q1 2025, with significant drops in revenue and profit growth rates compared to 2024 [3][10] - The performance of city commercial banks has been notably better than other types of banks, with positive revenue growth in both 2024 and Q1 2025 [10][13] 2. Growth of Interest-Generating Assets - The growth rate of interest-generating assets for listed banks was 0.44% in 2024, with a slight increase to 0.79% in Q1 2025. However, the growth in deposits remained stable at 5.59% in 2024 and 6.22% in Q1 2025 [4][10] 3. Interest Margin Performance - The report indicates that both the yield on interest-generating assets and the cost of interest-bearing liabilities have decreased significantly in Q1 2025, affecting the interest margin performance across banks [4][10] 4. Non-Interest Income Growth - Non-interest income growth for listed banks was 6.71% in 2024, but it fell to -1.87% in Q1 2025, primarily due to the impact of market conditions on fee income and other non-interest revenues [4][10] 5. Asset Quality Improvement - The report highlights a slight improvement in asset quality, with a marginal decrease in the non-performing loan ratio and stable provision coverage ratios, indicating a cautious but positive trend in credit quality [4][10][13] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major state-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications, as well as regional banks like Chongqing Bank and Chengdu Bank, which may benefit from supportive fiscal policies [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 212.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.22% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.16 billion yuan, down 3.99% year-on-year [2] - Total assets at the end of Q1 stood at 51.55 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.29% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.33%, a decline of 15 basis points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 3.22% year-on-year to 2127.74 billion yuan, with net profit down 3.99% to 841.56 billion yuan [2] - Total assets increased by 8.29% year-on-year to 51.55 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% [2] Loan and Deposit Growth - Government financing has driven growth in investment assets, while loan growth has slightly slowed due to demand factors [6] - Deposit growth has shown a slight recovery, influenced by macroeconomic policies [6] Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.33%, reflecting a decline due to repricing effects [6] - Fee and commission income has seen a narrowing decline, with potential for recovery in the upcoming quarters [6] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% at the end of 2024 [7] - Individual loan risks are expected to be manageable, supported by a solid customer base and prudent risk management [7] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain stable operations despite rising pressures, with projected revenues of 817.5 billion yuan, 833 billion yuan, and 880.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating based on the company's strong customer base, diversified business, and stable dividend policy [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) [1] Core Views - The bank's revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 2.6% [6] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased slightly to 0.91%, while the provision coverage ratio fell to 266% [6] - The bank's loan growth outpaced major state-owned banks, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in Q1 2025 [6] - The net interest margin (NIM) decreased to 1.71%, reflecting ongoing pressure on interest rates [6] - The report anticipates a modest recovery in profitability, projecting net profit growth rates of 1.45%, 4.15%, and 6.72% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Q1 2025 revenue was 893.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 252.5 billion yuan [4] - The bank's total loans reached 9,356.2 billion yuan, with total deposits at 15,976.5 billion yuan [10] - The forecast for total operating income is 351,263.09 million yuan for 2025, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 0.71% [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 9.49% in 2025 [5] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 0.57, with a projected dividend yield of 5.1% for 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's asset quality continues to improve, with a TTM real non-performing loan generation rate of 1.24%, a decrease of 16 basis points from the previous quarter, maintaining the improvement trend since Q3 2024 [1][5] - Revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 decreased by 3.6% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to slowed growth in scale and increased non-interest burdens, although interest margin pressures improved [2][3] - The average daily interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.80%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but rebounded by 2 basis points compared to Q4 2024, benefiting from a significant decrease in the interest rate paid on deposits [3] - The bank's financial investment balance reached 3.55 trillion, demonstrating resilience amid challenges in the bond market, with minimal losses reported [4] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio increased slightly to 1.08% at the end of Q1 2025, while the attention loan ratio remained stable at 1.71% [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 55,683 million, a decrease of 3.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 23,796 million, down 2.2% year-on-year [12] - The return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 9.0%, reflecting a decline from previous quarters [12] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are -1.16%, 0.41%, and 2.25%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 39.20, 41.64, and 44.16 [6] - The target price is set at 25.82 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was 1.08%, with a slight increase from the previous quarter, while the attention loan ratio remained stable at 1.71% [5] - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 233% [1][5]