有色金属观点更新 20251009 摘要 市场上有传言称几内亚西芒杜铁矿需配套建设冶炼厂才能出口，但我们认为这 种可能性很低。根据我们的测算，如果要在几内亚建设配套的钢铁冶炼厂，每 吨钢需要 150 度电，而几内亚目前的用电量远不足以支持这一需求，其人均用 电量在全球范围内也处于较低水平。此外，几内亚主要依赖天然气和风能发电， 而非传统的煤电或水电。因此，从基础设施角度来看，这种要求不太现实。 中国与 BHP 之间关于结算币种的问题会如何影响市场？ 最近网上有传言称 BHP 与中国矿产资源集团在结算币种问题上存在分歧，并因 此暂停合作。如果这一情况属实，将对中国和澳大利亚的铁矿石贸易产生重大 影响。目前，中国是全球最大的海运铁矿石进口国，而澳大利亚则高度依赖对 中国的出口。从逻辑推理来看，如果双方完全停止合作，将对价格产生长期影 响。然而，目前海外市场反应平淡，BHP 等公司的股票变化不大，而中国 A 股 相关股票如金岭矿业、海南矿业等则涨势明显。这表明国内投资者对这一消息 更为敏感。 几内亚西芒杜铁矿项目预计无需配套冶炼厂即可出口，因当地电力基础 设施难以支持大规模钢铁冶炼，且主要依赖天然气和风能发电。 若 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent contract awarded to U.S. Antimony Corporation (USAC) by the U.S. Department of Defense for the supply of antimony metal ingots, highlighting the strategic importance of antimony in the supply chain and its price fluctuations in 2025 [4][6]. Group 1: Contract and Supply Chain Security - U.S. Antimony Corporation has secured a five-year exclusive contract with the U.S. Department of Defense, with a maximum supply value of $245 million for antimony metal ingots [4]. - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over supply chain security for antimony, which is classified as a critical mineral by the U.S. and other countries [6]. Group 2: Antimony Price Trends - Antimony prices experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between January 1 and April 17, marking a 68% increase [7][8]. - Following the peak, prices fell to 176,000 CNY/ton by September 22, attributed to reduced demand and government policies targeting smuggling [8]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production, with a notable decline in exports during May to July due to government crackdowns on smuggling [10]. - However, signs of recovery in exports were observed in August, with a significant month-on-month increase [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that American Antimony has secured a significant contract with the U.S. Department of Defense for antimony ingots, with the first delivery expected to be completed this week, highlighting the strategic importance of antimony in the supply chain [1][2] - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over antimony supply chain security and emphasizes the metal's strategic value, as antimony is classified as a critical mineral by multiple countries, including the U.S., EU, and Japan [2][3] Group 2 - Antimony prices experienced fluctuations this year, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between January 1 and April 17, 2025, a 68% increase, before declining to 176,000 CNY/ton by September 22, 2025, due to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand [3] - The increase in antimony prices was driven by low inventory levels, difficulties in raw material replenishment, and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector, particularly following new policies that boosted demand for photovoltaic glass [3][4] Group 3 - China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production in 2023, but exports significantly declined from May to July 2025 due to government crackdowns on smuggling, with exports recovering to 198 tons in August, a 168% increase month-on-month [4] - The outlook for domestic antimony prices is positive, with expectations of price increases as compliance-based exports resume, despite limited supply growth due to resource constraints [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Insights - The strategic value of antimony has been highlighted by the recent exclusive five-year contract awarded to U.S. Antimony Corporation by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a maximum supply value of $245 million for antimony metal ingots [1][2]. - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over supply chain security for antimony, which is recognized as a critical mineral by multiple countries, including the U.S., EU, and Japan [2]. - Antimony prices experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, with a peak price of 240,000 CNY/ton in April, followed by a decline to 176,000 CNY/ton by September [3][4]. Summary by Sections Antimony Market Dynamics - Antimony prices rose sharply from February to April 2025, increasing by 68% due to low inventory, difficult raw material replenishment, and positive market sentiment, driven by demand from the photovoltaic sector [3]. - A subsequent price correction occurred from April to September 2025, attributed to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand and government policies targeting smuggling, which significantly reduced antimony oxide exports [3][4]. Export Trends and Future Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production, with a notable decline in exports during the first half of 2025 due to government crackdowns on smuggling [4]. - Recent statements from the Ministry of Commerce indicate a potential recovery in antimony exports, which could lead to an upward adjustment in domestic antimony prices [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic antimony prices in the medium to long term, given the limited supply increase and the anticipated recovery of compliant antimony exports [4]. - Key companies to watch include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential investment opportunities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic metals in the current era of significant global change, defining strategic metals based on supply chain stability rather than scarcity [1] Group 1: Strategic Metals Overview - Cobalt is identified as a strategic metal due to its scarcity and unstable supply chain, with over 75% of global supply coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The U.S. plans to purchase 7,500 tons of cobalt over the next five years, indicating a bullish outlook for cobalt prices [1] - Tungsten is noted for its scarcity and domestic control, with prices accelerating due to its classification as a "war metal" [2] - Magnesium, while not scarce, is under domestic control and is seen as a potential substitute for aluminum, indicating significant market potential [3] - Potassium is recognized for its scarcity and high concentration, serving as a critical resource for food security, with price controls implemented by the government [4] - Rare earth elements are characterized by their non-scarcity but domestic supply chain control, with significant imports from the U.S. and other countries. The article predicts a decline in imports due to geopolitical tensions [4] Group 2: Additional Strategic Metals - Nickel is described as not particularly scarce but with a high concentration in supply, heavily reliant on Indonesia [5] - Antimony is classified as scarce with a concentrated supply chain, and its price is supported by export controls and domestic demand [5] - Tantalum and niobium are both noted for their scarcity and concentrated supply chains, with significant reliance on African and Brazilian sources, respectively [5] - The article mentions the performance of the non-ferrous metal industry index, highlighting the top ten weighted stocks, which include major companies like Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth [6]

Summary of Tungsten Industry and Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Situation Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is strategically significant, with the Ministry of Natural Resources reducing the first batch of tungsten mining quotas by 4,000 metric tons year-on-year, highlighting its value at the national level [1][2] - International market reactions to China's tungsten export controls have led to a significant price difference, with foreign APD prices exceeding domestic prices by 40,000 yuan, driving domestic prices up [1][2] - The average profit margin for Chinese tungsten mines reached approximately 30% last year, with mining companies exhibiting a reluctance to sell, hoping to further increase prices [1][2] - Global military competition is intensifying, with countries like Germany, the UK, and Japan increasing military investments, which is expected to significantly boost tungsten demand [1][2] - Long-term supply constraints due to government control over sources and quotas have contributed to the recent price increases [1][2] Jiangxi Tungsten Group - Jiangxi Tungsten Group, a leading player in the Jiangxi tungsten industry, operates nine core mines and is expected to achieve profits of 800 to 1,000 million yuan from its mining segment this year, with a self-sufficiency rate of about 50% [1][8][10] - The company covers the entire tungsten industry chain, including mining, smelting, and downstream processing, with significant production capacities in both smelting methods [9][10] - Jiangxi Tungsten Group's average production cost is around 130,000 yuan per ton, while current market prices exceed 200,000 yuan per ton, leading to substantial profit margins [8][10] Profit Distribution in the Tungsten Industry - The profit distribution across the tungsten industry chain is uneven, with upstream mining achieving a profit margin of about 30%, while midstream smelting has very low margins of around 2% [13][14] - Downstream processing profits have decreased from double digits in previous years to 8-9% in 2024 [13][14] Future Outlook and Developments - Jiangxi Tungsten Group is planning to expand its production capabilities, including a new APD factory and a tungsten powder project, while also investing in technological upgrades for existing mines [15] - The company has previously considered listing some of its effective assets, with its subsidiary Jiangxi Jiangwu Xigui Equipment Co., Ltd. already listed [16][17] - Despite some older mines experiencing production declines due to increased mining depth and lower ore grades, new resources are expected to be developed in the coming years, potentially restoring total production to around 15,000 tons [18] Key Takeaways - The tungsten market is experiencing upward price pressure due to strategic government policies, international market dynamics, and increasing military demand - Jiangxi Tungsten Group is well-positioned within the industry, with strong profit potential and plans for future growth - The industry faces challenges related to profit distribution and resource depletion, but new developments may provide opportunities for recovery and expansion

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing stable global demand growth at an annual rate of approximately 1.2%, primarily driven by high-end manufacturing sectors such as aerospace and military, consuming about 110,000 tons of pure tungsten annually, equivalent to 220,000 tons of tungsten concentrate [1][3][9] - China dominates global tungsten supply, providing around 80% of the demand, with 2024 native tungsten concentrate production expected to be 133,500 tons, which is insufficient to meet market demand [1][5][27] Key Points on Tungsten Prices - Recent supply-demand changes in the minor metals market have led to a rapid increase in tungsten prices, with 55-degree tungsten concentrate reaching 220,000 yuan per ton and APT prices nearing 330,000 yuan, marking a historical high and an increase of over 50% compared to the average price in 2024 [1][10] - Factors contributing to the price increase include reduced tungsten quotas by the Ministry of Natural Resources, strengthened export controls, significant price hikes in international markets, and increased military demand due to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war [1][11][14] Supply Chain Structure - The tungsten industry supply chain consists of upstream (mining, ore dressing, and waste recycling), midstream (tungsten smelting), and downstream (alloy manufacturing) [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2024, China's total tungsten raw material supply is projected to be approximately 204,700 tons, including 134,700 tons of native tungsten, 60,000 tons of recycled tungsten, and 10,000 tons of imported tungsten concentrate [3][16] - There exists a supply gap of about 10,000 tons in the Chinese tungsten market, with both enterprise and social inventories at historical lows [3][22][23] Military Demand Impact - The military sector's direct and indirect consumption of tungsten is significantly increasing, driven by a large-scale arms race, which is expected to further elevate demand for tungsten products [1][13][15] Recycling and Recovered Tungsten - The use of recycled tungsten materials has increased, with some factories using up to 30% recycled materials in 2024, compared to less than 10% five years ago [1][8] - The growth rate of recycled tungsten production is expected to be around 7-8% in 2025, reaching approximately 60,000 tons [17][19] Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has intensified efforts to combat the smuggling of scrap metals, which has further tightened market conditions [12] - Strict management of over-extraction has led to cautious behavior among mining companies, impacting current and future native tungsten supply [20][24] Future Outlook - The global demand for tungsten is anticipated to continue rising, particularly due to military spending increases in Europe and other regions, which may lead to sustained price increases [15][41] - The market is expected to remain under supply constraints, with total supply projected to be around 200,000 tons in 2025, while demand is expected to reach approximately 220,000 tons [26][41] Conclusion - The tungsten industry is characterized by a complex interplay of supply constraints, rising demand driven by military needs, and significant price volatility influenced by regulatory actions and geopolitical factors. The outlook suggests continued pressure on supply and potential for further price increases in the coming years.

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing rapid rotation, with various metals like gold, copper, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium taking turns in performance, indicating strong market activity [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 7, rare earth stocks are leading the non-ferrous metal sector, with major players like Northern Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources rising over 6% [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen a cumulative increase of 24.91% year-to-date, making it the top-performing sector among 31 categories [6] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) has recorded a 1.07% increase, achieving five consecutive days of gains, reflecting positive market sentiment [1][6] Group 2: Price Movements and Policies - Lithium carbonate futures have surged by 5% to 72,140 yuan/ton, benefiting lithium compound producers [3] - The "anti-involution" policy implemented in Jiangxi and Qinghai is expected to optimize the supply structure of the lithium industry, supporting long-term price stability [3][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, viewed as a continuation of the 2016 supply-side reform [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on three major metals: gold, copper, and aluminum, while also considering strategic metals like rare earths due to their geopolitical significance [3][4] - The current low valuation of the non-ferrous metal sector, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.36, indicates potential for valuation recovery [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from increased demand in emerging industries and limited supply growth, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the molybdenum industry, highlighting supply disruptions and price forecasts for 2025 [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Disruptions**: Domestic and international molybdenum supply is disrupted, affecting approximately 15,000 tons of metal globally, which is about 5%-6% of total supply. The domestic impact is around 11%-13% due to major mines in central China and Codelco's mine in South America being offline [1][3][7]. - **Price Outlook**: The expectation is for molybdenum prices to rise due to traditional demand peaks from August to October, compounded by supply issues. Despite recent price drops, the ongoing supply disruptions are anticipated to push prices higher [4][5][17]. - **Demand Stability**: Manufacturing and energy-related steel demand remains stable and is expected to grow, supporting molybdenum prices during peak demand seasons [5][12]. - **Inventory Levels**: Current wood market inventory is about 4,000 tons, which is higher than the previous year but still tight relative to the expected demand increase in 2025 [10][11]. Additional Important Content - **Military Demand**: Molybdenum's demand in the military sector is about 5%-10% under normal conditions, but could increase significantly in the event of armed conflict or strategic stockpiling [2][14]. - **Resistance to Price Increases**: Steel mills are resisting price hikes despite profitability and low inventory levels, indicating limited effectiveness of their resistance due to the upcoming demand peak [9][12]. - **Strategic Metal Performance**: The strategic metals sector, including molybdenum, is performing well, with price expectations between 5,000 and 5,500 yuan, and potential market capitalization growth for companies like Jinchuan Group [15][17]. - **Company-Specific Insights**: Guocheng Mining is positioned well due to its dual focus on molybdenum and lithium, with significant growth potential in its mining operations [16]. Conclusion - The molybdenum market is facing significant supply challenges that are expected to drive prices up in the near term. Demand from both traditional sectors and potential military applications adds complexity to the market dynamics. The overall outlook remains positive for molybdenum prices, supported by stable demand and strategic inventory management.

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten industry is expected to see a demand of 71,000 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.5%, driven by various sectors including hard alloys and special steels [1][4]. Tungsten Prices - The tungsten industry chain extends from exploration and mining to deep processing, with significant price increases observed in various tungsten products as of July 23, 2023. For instance, 65% black tungsten concentrate is priced at 185,000 RMB per ton, up 29.4% from the beginning of the year [2]. Tungsten Supply - The first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 shows a decrease in quotas, with 2025's quota down 6.45% to 5.8 million tons. China's tungsten resources are abundant, holding the world's largest tungsten reserves and production [3]. Tungsten Demand - The demand for tungsten is bolstered by the growth in the electric vehicle and military sectors, particularly for high-end hard alloys. The APT operating rate is at a historical high of 74.95% as of June 2025, indicating strong demand resilience [4]. Supply-Demand Balance - A projected supply-demand gap of 2,919 tons in 2025 suggests that tungsten prices are likely to continue rising. Future demand growth is expected to come primarily from the photovoltaic tungsten wire sector [5]. Related Companies - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) is noted for its full industry chain layout and rapid growth in photovoltaic tungsten wire production. Zhongtung High-tech (000657) is recognized as a leader in hard alloys with significant raw material supply advantages [6].