Core Insights - The overall market in Q3 2025 shows weak transaction volume, continued price declines, and rising inventory levels, indicating ongoing de-stocking pressures [1] - Only 19% of the 27 first- and second-tier cities exhibit signs of market stabilization [1] Transaction Volume and Price Trends - The transaction volume for second-hand homes is stronger than that of new homes, with cities like Chengdu and Shanghai showing significant year-on-year recovery [1] - New home prices have seen a widening decline in Q3 2025, following a period of narrowing declines since October 2024, while second-hand home prices also reflect this trend [2] - The overall market recovery remains weak, with first-tier cities showing slight improvement while second-tier cities continue to experience negative growth in new home transactions [2] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory cycles are on the rise, with first-tier cities' clearing cycles increasing to 19.9-21.1 months, up from 16-17 months at the end of 2024 [3] - Second-tier cities face even higher inventory pressures, with clearing cycles reaching a three-year high of 24.8 months in September 2025, attributed to weak new home sales and structural issues like declining population attraction and excess land supply [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cumulative land transaction area from January to September 2025 has seen a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a decrease of 9% compared to the previous year, while the average transaction price has increased by 17% [23][30]. - The new housing market is expected to show signs of improvement earlier than the second-hand housing market due to supply contraction expectations and quality optimization [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread as key indicators for total demand in the housing market [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The new housing contract area has seen a year-on-year decline of 32%, which has widened by 29 percentage points compared to September [3]. - The average daily contract area for new homes is below the levels seen in the past four years [21]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing contract area has increased by 4% year-on-year, but this growth has narrowed by 10 percentage points compared to September [3]. - The average daily contract area for second-hand homes is also below the levels seen in the past four years [21]. Land Acquisition - The report indicates that the cumulative land transaction area has decreased by 9% year-on-year, while the average transaction price has increased by 17% [23][30]. - The land premium rate has decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [29]. Market Liquidity - The liquidity outlook indicates a tightening trend at the macro level, with a narrowing of the year-on-year easing [4][50]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased from 5.8% to 5.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.6% [51]. Inventory and Sales - The report notes that the unsold inventory and the cycle for unsold new launches have increased compared to July, indicating a need for monitoring [33][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The average daily signed area for second-hand homes has increased by approximately 2% year-on-year, while the average daily signed area for new homes has decreased by about 2% when adjusted for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday effect [3][4]. - The report highlights that the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread narrowing is a key observation for the total demand for new and second-hand homes to stabilize [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on reasonable valuation ranges for investments, suggesting that the current PB valuation level for the sector is around 1.2 times, while the average PB for the top five sales-focused real estate companies is approximately 0.7 times [5]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - The new home signed area has shown a year-on-year increase, with data from September 1 to September 25 indicating a positive trend compared to the same period in previous years [9][13]. - The overall signed area for new homes in sample cities has also exceeded levels from the past four years [13]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home signed area has similarly shown a year-on-year increase, with data from September 1 to September 25 reflecting a positive trend [15][19]. - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has increased, indicating a growing interest in the market [43]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to August 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 10%, while the average transaction price has increased by 23% [22]. - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices, indicating a potential cooling in the market [50]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the cycle for unsold new constructions have increased compared to July, suggesting a tightening market [32][35]. - The liquidity outlook shows a tightening trend at the macro level, with a reduction in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices [49][50].

Core Insights - The Australian real estate market shows that while most homeowners profit from selling properties, a growing number of loss-making sales are concentrated in specific high-density areas [1][4]. Summary by Sections Profitability of Sales - According to Cotality's "Pain and Gain Report," the median profit for homeowners selling properties in the June 2024 quarter reached AUD 315,000, an increase from AUD 305,000 in the previous quarter and significantly above the inflation-adjusted average of AUD 250,000 over the past decade [2]. - Approximately 94.8% of sellers achieved profits, slightly down from 95% in the March quarter [3]. Loss-Making Sales Concentration - Loss-making sales are primarily associated with apartments, with one-third of these sales concentrated in five local government areas (LGAs): Parramatta, Sydney, Melbourne, Stonnington, and Port Phillip [4]. - In Melbourne, 47% of property sales were loss-making, followed by Stonnington at 35.5% [6][9][10]. - The report indicates that the high percentage of loss-making sales is linked to a surge in apartment construction during the 2010s, which did not consider long-term livability [7]. Market Dynamics and Trends - The demand for properties in these high-density areas has faced several shocks, particularly after the tightening of macroprudential policies in 2017, leading to a sharp decline in investment demand [8]. - The supply of apartments has remained high due to the development boom in the previous decade, contributing to the losses observed [13][14]. - In contrast, medium-sized cities like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth have shown strong performance in their apartment markets, with loss-making sales below 5% [17]. Regional Performance - Coastal areas have seen significant capital appreciation, driven by a recent trend towards lifestyle-oriented property purchases, with notable profits in regions like Kiama (AUD 758,000 median profit) and Byron Shire (AUD 718,000 median profit) [21]. - However, climate change risks, such as rising sea levels, may influence future buyer decisions, particularly in lower socio-economic areas that struggle to recover from disasters [19][20].

Summary of Hong Kong Property Chartbook Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong Property Market - **Key Segments**: Residential, Retail, Office, Mainland China Retail Key Points and Arguments Residential Market - **Home Price Correction**: The longest home price correction since 2003 has been observed in Hong Kong, indicating a significant downturn in the residential market [7][9][14] - **Rental Trends**: The rental level in Hong Kong is picking up, with the Centaline rental index showing an increase in overall rental rates [14][17] - **Transaction Volumes**: There has been a notable decline in residential transaction volumes, both in primary and secondary markets [21][22] - **Supply and Demand**: Oversupply in the residential market may not be resolved in the near term, with a significant number of unsold residential units [38][40][45] - **Future Supply**: The pipeline of primary launches in 2H25 indicates a total potential supply of 23,051 units, with various projects across different districts [54][56] Retail Market - **Sales Trends**: Hong Kong retail sales have shown a decline, particularly in discretionary spending categories, while staples have outperformed [102][107][111] - **Tourist Arrivals**: The number of tourist arrivals has a direct impact on retail sales, with fluctuations noted in the weekly net arrivals [113][116] - **Retail Landlords' Performance**: A summary of retail landlords' operational performance shows varying results, with some landlords experiencing significant declines in sales [134] Office Market - **Rental and Vacancy Rates**: The office rental index continues to face pressure, with a high vacancy rate of 13.6% reported [137][141] - **Cap Rate Expansion**: Cap rate expansion is identified as a headwind for the office market, affecting overall capital values [142][143] - **Supply Forecasts**: New office supply is expected to hover around 1.7 million square feet per year, with a total of 8.3 million square feet projected from 2025 to 2029 [149][151] Mainland China Retail - **Sales Performance**: There has been a decline in momentum of retail sales in Mainland China, particularly in luxury goods [156][158] - **Retail Landlords' Performance**: A summary of retail landlords' performance in Mainland China indicates mixed results, with some landlords outperforming the market while others face challenges [163] Additional Important Insights - **Population Trends**: The population in Hong Kong is stabilizing, which may influence housing demand and market dynamics [67] - **Affordability Issues**: The affordability of housing remains a concern, with monthly mortgage payments relative to median household income being a critical factor [84][86] - **Negative Equity Cases**: The number of negative equity cases in residential mortgages is low, suggesting a relatively stable mortgage environment [79][81] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Hong Kong Property Chartbook, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the residential, retail, and office markets in Hong Kong.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the real estate market in China, highlighting the contrasting opinions on whether to buy property now or wait for potential price drops. It emphasizes the complexity of the housing market, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, financial policies, and demographic changes [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is characterized by significant disparities across different city tiers. As of May 2025, the inventory of new residential properties in 300 key cities reached approximately 420 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of about 20 months. First-tier cities have a healthier de-stocking cycle of 10 months, while third and fourth-tier cities exceed 25 months [4]. - In first-tier and some strong second-tier cities, the market is approaching a balance, with some areas experiencing a shortage of available properties. This contrasts sharply with third-tier cities, where new developments remain unsold for extended periods [4]. Group 2: Financial Environment - Since the second half of 2024, the government has implemented various financial policies to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates. As of July 2025, the average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers has dropped to around 3.8%, the lowest in nearly a decade [5]. - While these policies benefit homebuyers, their sustainability is uncertain, and the growth rate of personal housing loans has shown signs of recovery, indicating potential adjustments in future policies [5]. Group 3: Demographic Trends - China's population has experienced a decline for the first time since 1961, with an estimated decrease of about 800,000 in 2025. The aging population is also a significant factor, with projections indicating that 21% of the population will be 60 years or older by 2025 [6]. - Despite the overall population decline, urbanization continues, with younger populations migrating to first and second-tier cities, maintaining strong housing demand in these areas. The trend of smaller household sizes is also expected to mitigate some negative impacts of population decline on housing demand [6]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The ability to choose properties freely in five years will largely depend on the type of property and the city chosen. High-quality properties in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, especially those in desirable locations, are likely to maintain or even increase in value due to tightening supply [8]. - Conversely, properties in third and fourth-tier cities may face downward price pressure due to ongoing population outflows and excess inventory. The quality of properties will also play a crucial role in their future value, with energy-efficient and well-managed properties being more desirable [8]. Group 5: Decision-Making Strategies - Homebuyers are advised to focus on the fundamental purpose of housing, which is to provide shelter. Those with stable jobs and long-term plans in a city should consider purchasing if their rent approaches or exceeds potential mortgage payments [9]. - Financial prudence is essential, with recommendations to keep the mortgage-to-income ratio below 30% to avoid financial strain. Buyers should also tailor their purchasing strategies based on local market conditions, opting for smaller properties in high-demand areas initially, with plans to upgrade later [10]. - Attention should be given to property value retention factors such as property management quality, community amenities, and transportation accessibility. Diversifying asset allocation beyond real estate is also recommended to mitigate risks [11].

Core Insights - The real estate market in August 2025 experienced significant changes, with a notable increase in the number of cities reporting declines in new and second-hand residential prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - In August 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month decline in new residential prices, an increase of 12 cities from July. For second-hand residential prices, 61 cities reported declines, up by 9 cities from the previous month [1]. - The total inventory of new residential properties in 100 cities reached 56,794 million square meters by the end of August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. The average de-stocking period has extended to 18.3 months, the longest in five years [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market due to an influx of new housing projects and a decline in demand driven by demographic changes. This has resulted in an oversupply situation in several cities [3][4]. - Promotional activities for new homes in 100 key cities surged by 143% year-on-year in August, with average discounts increasing to 7.2%, and some cities offering discounts exceeding 15% [4]. Group 3: Developer Financial Health - The average debt-to-asset ratio for the top 50 real estate companies reached 76.3% by June 2025, with 15 companies having a short-term debt coverage ratio below 1, indicating severe liquidity issues [5][7]. - In August alone, seven sizable real estate firms reported debt defaults, highlighting the risks associated with high-leverage business models in a declining market [7]. Group 4: Buyer Sentiment - The buyer sentiment has shifted from panic buying to a more rational wait-and-see approach, with 67.3% of respondents in a housing demand survey choosing to wait, an increase of 21.5 percentage points from the previous year [8]. - This change in sentiment is expected to further suppress market demand, creating a negative feedback loop where developers are compelled to lower prices, which in turn discourages buyers from making purchases [8]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Developers are advised to reassess their strategies, moving away from high-leverage models to ensure cash flow stability during market downturns. They should also focus on market segmentation to cater to specific demands rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach [9]. - For buyers, the current market presents both challenges and opportunities. First-time buyers may find favorable conditions, while those looking to upgrade should proceed cautiously. Investors are cautioned that the golden era of real estate investment may have passed, with lower expected returns [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, with expectations of declining new housing supply in July and a mixed performance across different city tiers [4][5][9]. Core Insights - In July, new housing supply is expected to decrease by 32% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year, reaching a low point for the year, with significant reductions in supply from major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5][9]. - The supply structure is shifting towards improvement-oriented products, with 40% of new supply targeting first-time buyers, 45% for upgrades, and 15% for high-end products [11][12]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 29%, reflecting a 15 percentage point decrease month-on-month but a slight increase year-on-year [16][18]. Summary by Sections Supply Overview - In July, the total new housing supply across 28 key cities is estimated at 5.13 million square meters, marking a 32% decrease from the previous month and a 29% decline year-on-year [5][11]. - First-tier cities, particularly Beijing, are expected to maintain higher supply levels, while other cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing significant reductions [7][9]. City Tier Analysis - Over 80% of second-tier cities are expected to see a decline in supply, with notable drops in cities like Qingdao and Changchun [9][10]. - Third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle, with a 10% month-on-month decrease and a 37% year-on-year decline in supply [9][10]. Supply Structure - The supply structure is increasingly focused on improvement needs, with nearly 70% of cities prioritizing main urban areas for new housing projects [11][13]. - Cities like Kunming and Wuxi have a high proportion of first-time buyer products, while cities like Beijing and Chengdu are focusing more on improvement-oriented offerings [12][13]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continued low level of new home transactions, with potential for a slight recovery due to low year-on-year comparisons [16]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with core areas maintaining high demand while peripheral projects face challenges [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has become complex and diverse, moving away from the simplistic notion of "buy low, sell high" that characterized the market two decades ago. Current discussions should focus on demand rather than just pricing dynamics. Pricing Analysis - Real estate prices vary significantly, with major cities and provincial tourism cities experiencing high prices, while most third and fourth-tier cities have prices within a normal range. For instance, a price of 6,000 yuan per square meter is considered reasonable when adjusted for inflation [1]. - The perception of high prices in smaller cities is often due to a lack of consideration for inflation over the past 20 years, making current prices appear inflated [1]. - The current issue in the market is not about pricing but rather insufficient demand, as most rural residents have already purchased homes, leaving little concern for future price increases in these areas [1]. Demand Dynamics - The demand in third and fourth-tier cities is expected to take years to recover, as current inventory levels need to be sufficiently reduced before any significant price changes occur. Until then, supply will continue to exceed demand, leading to stagnant prices [2]. - In major cities, while there are reports of price drops, these often only reflect a reduction in speculative bubbles rather than actual price declines. Properties priced above 50,000 yuan per square meter are largely considered speculative bubbles, while those below this threshold may represent true market prices [2]. - The economic downturn has led to a clearer understanding among consumers regarding housing affordability, with many unable to manage high monthly mortgage payments, thus disconnecting high-value properties from the average consumer's reality [2]. Property Sellability - Not all properties are sellable at reduced prices; older buildings without modern amenities, such as elevators, struggle to attract buyers. The current market shows a preference for properties that meet modern living standards, making older, less desirable units difficult to sell [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The new housing contract area has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, while the second-hand housing contract area has experienced a narrowed year-on-year decline [1][8] - The report indicates that the overall demand for new and second-hand housing may stabilize due to potential decreases in mortgage rates, which could help narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5] - The report highlights that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0 times, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models, suggesting that the sector has entered an investment range [5] Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded to -14% as of June 26, with a notable drop in first-tier cities [3] - The report notes that the year-on-year decline in new housing contracts is at a middle level compared to the past five years [8] Second-Hand Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing contracts has narrowed to -1%, with first-tier cities showing a 9% increase [3] - The report indicates that the second-hand housing contract area has shown a positive trend in certain sample cities, with some cities experiencing a year-on-year increase [13] Market Trends and Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has increased by 3.9% month-on-month, indicating a positive shift in market activity [40] - The liquidity outlook suggests an expansion in macro-level liquidity as of June 2025, which may support market recovery [44] Land Acquisition and Pricing - The cumulative land transaction area from January to May 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [20] - The report notes that the proportion of properties with increased listing prices has decreased by 4.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential cooling in price increases [47]