金融工程 | 金工定期报告 配置方向上，我们的行业配置模型显示，中期角度行业配置继续推荐困境 反转型板块，推荐港股创新药和证券保险，上行趋势仍在延续，此外受益 政策驱动板块方面，光伏以及化工有望保持上行；TWO BETA 模型继续推 荐科技板块，继续关注军工算力以及电池。短期信号显示，黄金股有望在 调整后迎来反弹。 从估值指标来看，wind 全 A 指数整体 PE 位于 85 分位点附近，属于中等水 平，PB 位于 50 分位点附近，属于较低水平，结合短期趋势判断，根据我 们的仓位管理模型，当前以 wind 全 A 为股票配置主体的绝对收益产品建 议仓位至 80%。 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：牛市思维，行业如何配置？ 牛市思维，行业如何配置？ 上周周报(20250817)认为：短期而言，上周市场放量加速上攻，短期日线 或有震荡，但仍建议逢低加仓；当前 WIND 全 A 趋势线位于 5625 点附近， 赚钱效应值为 3.73%，显著为正，在赚钱效应转负之前，建议耐心持有，保 持高仓位。最终 wind 全 A 继续大涨，全周上涨 3.87%。市值维度上，上周 代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 3. ...

伴随港、A股牛市行情持续演绎，市场情绪高涨，但同时这也意味着越到后期市场的波动也将更为剧 烈，对于后来者而言，显然心理压力更大。 那么，在这种市场环境下，投资者普遍更青睐于追求那些既能提供安全边际，又能在牛市中展现弹性收 益的投资机会。 纵观整个市场，商业房托（REITs，房地产投资信托基金）能够满足这种市场对稳定性和增长潜力的双 重期待。 近期，正值招商局商业房托公布财报，不妨就此来探讨这背后的逻辑。 首先，是高分红构筑的安全垫。 商业房托的核心优势之一是其稳定的现金流和高分红政策。由于其主要收入来源是商业地产的租金收 入，这种收入相对稳定，受经济周期波动的影响相对较小。 以招商局商业房托来看，其持有多个甲级写字楼、创意写字楼和商业综合体。这些核心资产位于北京、 深圳核心地段，具有稳定的客流量和较高的租金收入。这种稳定的现金流使得招商房托能够持续进行高 分红，为投资者提供稳定的收益。 财报数据显示，2025年上半年，公司总收入达到2.25亿人民币，其中租金收入1.96亿人民币。另外公司 可分派收入达到5746万元。而截至目前公司的年化分派率则达到了9.1%，且自上市以来始终保持100% 派息率。显然，良好的 ...

Group 1 - The report analyzes the recent bull market in the ChiNext index, which closed at 2606.20 points on August 18, 2023, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 21.69% [3] - The report identifies the best-performing years for the ChiNext index since 2011, highlighting 2015 (84%), 2013 (83%), 2020 (65%), and 2019 (44%) as significant years of growth [3] - The analysis compares two previous bull markets (2013-2015 and 2018-2021), noting that the 2013-2015 period was characterized by broad-based growth, while the 2018-2021 period exhibited more structural characteristics [3][4] Group 2 - The first bull market (2013-2015) saw the ChiNext index rise from 705.34 points to 3982.25 points, a total increase of 464.6%, driven by the rise of emerging industries and strong growth expectations [5][15] - During this period, approximately 93% of ChiNext stocks experienced gains, with many stocks increasing by 2-5 times [3][5] - Key sectors during this bull market included computer, power equipment, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, with the computer sector leading with an average increase of 338.26% [6] Group 3 - The second bull market (2018-2021) saw the ChiNext index rise from 1205.03 points to 3563.13 points, a total increase of 195.7%, characterized by a more selective approach to stock performance [8][16] - In this period, about 74% of ChiNext stocks rose, but most gains were limited to within 2 times [3][8] - The leading sectors included power equipment, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computers, with power equipment achieving an average increase of 220.94% [9] Group 4 - The report highlights the differences between the two bull markets, noting that the first was marked by broad participation and high volatility, while the second was more focused on quality and structural growth [11][12] - The first bull market tolerated high valuations, while the second market showed a preference for reasonable valuations, indicating a shift towards more rational investment behavior [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and technological innovation as key drivers for both bull markets, with a focus on emerging industries and structural economic changes [11][16]

Group 1 - The electric grid equipment industry in China is experiencing dual opportunities driven by technological upgrades and policy support, particularly in the context of ultra-high voltage (UHV) as a necessity for energy transition [1] - The demand for Gas Insulated Transmission Lines (GIL) is expected to expand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, indicating a robust development outlook for the sector [1] - New technologies such as AI and blockchain are increasingly empowering the operation of renewable energy, facilitating a shift from a construction-heavy focus to an operation-centric phase in the industry [1] Group 2 - The RWA (Real World Asset) platform has launched in Hong Kong, with renewable energy RWA becoming a representative of "Chinese characteristics" due to its stability and green finance attributes, enhancing the integration of electric grid assets with financial innovation [1] - The Electric Grid ETF (561380) tracks the Hang Seng A-share Electric Grid Equipment Index (HSCAUPG), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the electric grid and power equipment sector in China [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Hang Seng A-share Electric Grid Equipment ETF Initiated Link A (023638) and Link C (023639) for exposure to this sector [1]

一石激起千层浪！ 周末，一则涉及影视剧市场的传闻流传坊间。今天早上，该传闻彻底引爆市场，板块个股全线飙涨，截至午间收盘，共 有4只股票实现20cm涨停，分别是华智数媒、百纳千成、华策影视、芒果超媒。 华西证券认为，传媒板块可参考游戏行业复苏路径：2023年起版号放宽后，2024年游戏行业净利润同比增长472%，2025 年半年报净利增速达191%，验证内容产业对政策敏感度高。影视行业若审批效率提升、题材限制放宽，或复制游戏行业 快速反弹逻辑。 影视狂飙 今日， 影视制作板块迎来了久违的大爆发。截至午间收盘，华智数媒、百纳千成、华策影视、芒果超媒实现20cm涨停， 流金科技涨超11%，中科金财、慈文传媒、欢瑞世纪涨停，吉视传媒涨超9%，城市传媒、华谊兄弟、新媒股份等涨幅也 非常强劲。港股阅文集团亦一度大涨超25%。 其次是AI赋能：华鑫证券认为，AI作为撬动传媒板块估值的支点之一，海外产品（如2025年8月GPT-5推出）未带来较大 情绪提振，但国产如DeepSeek的R2模型获新期待，AI硬件已在演绎，AI应用落地传媒场景仍可期。 长城证券也表示，近期，国内外大模型加速迭代，7月28日智谱发布其最新一代旗舰模 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, there are still structural concerns, and inflation expectations are stabilizing. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased this week [7]. - Domestic macro: China's manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, with production and demand both picking up. However, the upward drive still depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction has seen a seasonal decline in physical work volume [7]. - Asset views: China's economy remains stable, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in the US in June slightly rebounded to 49.0. In May, job openings rose to 7.769 million, and the job - opening rate was 4.6%. Core durable goods orders surged in May. In June, consumer confidence, current situation, and expectations all declined. This week, long - term inflation expectations were stable, short - term inflation expectations rose, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased [7]. - **Domestic**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure physical work volume has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a strong performance at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Markets - **Stock Index Futures**: Policy starts to focus on manufacturing profits, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Adopt a covered - call defense strategy, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has stabilized, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Shipping**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation for the European container shipping line, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - limit news, the market is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by emission - reduction news in Tangshan, the market declined slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coke**: Rumors have caused the market to oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by supply - demand rumors, the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Due to the decline in coal valuation, the futures price is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: With the increase in cost valuation, the market rebounds after reaching the bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Glass**: Prices in Shahe and Hubei continue to decline, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance disruptions still exist, and daily production begins to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices remain high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Alumina**: With a low number of warehouse receipts, the alumina market rises, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Aluminum and Zinc**: Aluminum prices rise due to low inventory and high premiums; zinc has an oversupply situation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation for aluminum and oscillatory decline for zinc [9]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside space for lead prices is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: Spot trading is dull, and tin prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply continues to increase, and silicon prices are under pressure to oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and there is a risk of price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitical risks, and the PG market may oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt futures prices oscillate, waiting for negative factors to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Methanol**: The port market has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - strong and demand - weak situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate weakly in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years, and the futures price should not be overly shorted, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and the cost is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Short - fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Processing fees fluctuate at a low level, and the absolute value follows raw materials, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and PP oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Plastic**: The improvement from maintenance is limited, and plastic oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical risks have cooled down temporarily, and styrene prices decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. 3.2.5 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Protein Meal**: It oscillates within a range, and long positions should be held, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: After the import auction is confirmed, the market has corrected in advance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent rainfall, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Rubber**: The strong performance of commodities has driven rubber prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market oscillates within a narrow range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the warm trading atmosphere in the financial market, pulp oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the US cotton planting area has slowed down the rise of Zhengzhou cotton prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Sugar**: There is a lack of positive factors, and sugar prices have limited upward momentum, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Timber**: The market is dominated by fundamentals again, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11].

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7% year-on-year, marking the lowest level this year[4] - Retail sales in May reached 4.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, exceeding market expectations of 4.85%[5] Industrial Sector Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a 9.0% year-on-year increase in added value, contributing 54.3% to overall industrial growth[4] - High-tech manufacturing growth slowed to 8.6%, down by 1.4 percentage points from April, primarily due to high base effects and reduced policy stimulus[4] - The export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by only 0.6% year-on-year, indicating weakened external demand[4] Investment Trends - Equipment and tool investment surged by 17.3% year-on-year, contributing 63.6% to overall investment growth, driven by policies like "old-for-new" and equipment upgrades[4] - Real estate investment in May fell by 10.7%, with residential investment declining by 10.0%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the property sector[5] - Infrastructure investment recorded a growth rate of 10.42%, supported by special bonds and long-term treasury bonds, despite a slight decline from April[5] Consumer Behavior - Essential consumer goods such as grain and oil saw a growth rate of 14.6%, indicating resilience in basic consumption[5] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales in categories like home appliances and furniture, with growth rates of 53.0% and 25.6% respectively[5] - Automotive retail sales grew by only 1.1%, significantly lower than the overall retail growth, primarily due to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles[5] Future Outlook - Industrial growth may slow marginally in June, with high-frequency data indicating a shift towards the off-season for several upstream industries[5] - Manufacturing investment is expected to remain high, driven by policy support for equipment updates and green transformation, but may face constraints from low export demand[5] - Retail sales growth may slightly decline, with ongoing policy support being a key factor in sustaining consumer demand[5]

Group 1 - The "National Subsidy" policy implemented in 2024 initially boosted the television market, but recent suspensions of the subsidy in multiple regions have created uncertainty for future market trends [2][3] - In May 2025, the brand shipment volume of the Chinese television market was 2.83 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, marking two consecutive months of decline since April [2] - Despite the decline in May, the cumulative shipment volume from January to May reached 14.035 million units, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 1.7% [2] Group 2 - The suspension of the subsidy is primarily due to the rapid consumption of funds, with over 150 billion yuan already used by the end of May, accounting for more than half of the annual 300 billion yuan fund pool [2][3] - Regions like Chongqing and Jiangsu have exhausted their subsidy quotas, while Guangdong has suspended the issuance of smart appliance subsidies [3] - The adjustment of the subsidy policy aims to optimize the efficiency of fiscal fund usage and prevent price disruptions during major sales events [3] Group 3 - The adjustment of the subsidy policy is expected to push the television industry back to a market-driven logic, with a forecasted shipment volume of 9.8 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [3][4] - The contribution of policy stimulus to market growth is projected to decrease from 40% in 2024 to 25% in 2025, with technological innovation and consumer upgrades becoming the main driving forces [3] - The suspension of subsidies highlights the industry's reliance on financial support and compels companies to focus on technological competition [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound on June 3, with broad-based gains across indices, indicating a positive market response to domestic demand and policy support despite external trade tensions [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by "domestic demand-driven and policy-supported" dynamics, with financials, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors attracting significant capital [2][10]. - Recent developments in U.S. tariff issues have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a surge in gold prices and declines in Hong Kong stocks, but the A-share market showed resilience by recovering losses [2][3]. Sector Performance - The consumer sector, particularly in beauty care, maternal and infant care, and pet products, has become a safe haven for funds due to policy support and consumption recovery [3][9]. - The banking sector is favored for its "high dividend and low volatility" characteristics, with several banks reaching historical highs amid increased institutional investment [7][10]. - The precious metals sector is gaining traction as a hedge against geopolitical conflicts and U.S. debt risks, becoming a core tool for mitigating uncertainty [3][9]. Structural Trends - The innovation drug sector is witnessing a fundamental reversal, driven by significant advancements showcased at international conferences, boosting industry confidence [4][9]. - Conversely, sectors like home appliances and steel are experiencing declines due to tariff impacts and reduced earnings certainty, reflecting a market strategy of "avoiding external demand and protecting internal demand" [5][10]. Outlook - Looking ahead to June, the marginal impact of tariff issues is expected to weaken, with domestic policies and industry fundamentals remaining focal points [6]. - In the absence of major catalysts, broad indices are likely to maintain a sideways trend, with structural opportunities emerging in new consumption, defensive sectors, and performance reversals in pharmaceuticals and beauty care [6][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing trend of A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong, driven by internationalization strategies, policy support, and improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market [1][2][6] - Weir Shares announced its plan to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international financing capabilities and competitiveness [2][3] - Over 20 A-share companies have submitted applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, including notable firms like Sany Heavy Industry and Haidilao, indicating a significant uptick in interest for dual listings [2][4] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has accelerated the review process for overseas listings, reducing the average approval time from over 100 days to less than 60 days [2][4] - The trend of A-share companies seeking dual listings is supported by favorable policies, such as the CSRC's measures to facilitate qualified domestic companies in raising funds in Hong Kong [4][5] - The Hong Kong market's liquidity has improved, attracting international capital and enhancing the pricing power of quality assets, which is beneficial for A-share companies looking to expand [6][7] Group 3 - The dual listing trend is expected to continue, with projections indicating that more large A-share companies and leading firms listed in the U.S. will seek to list in Hong Kong, potentially making it a focal point for new stock offerings [7][8] - Approximately 60% of the companies planning to list in Hong Kong are from the manufacturing sector, which will enhance the representation of quality manufacturing firms in the Hong Kong market [7] - The ongoing trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is seen as a way to participate in global competition and improve the international presence of Chinese firms [8]