2025年，沉寂多年的有色金属板块迎来了久违的史诗级行情。截至12月16日，A股有色金属（申万一级行业，下同）年度涨幅高达73.67%，超越通信板块 （72.97%），位居全市场第一。而在上周五，全A涨幅第一是通信行业，可见今年行业涨幅榜竞争激烈程度。 有色金属板块内个股表现更是精彩纷呈。斯瑞新材（688102.SH）以340.01%的涨幅领跑，招金黄金（000506.SZ）、兴业银锡（000426.SZ）、中钨高新 （000657.SZ）、洛阳钼业（603993.SH）等一批耳熟能详的有色龙头，涨幅均超过150%，共计26只股年内翻倍，成为2025年A股最靓丽的风景线。 本文字数：2711，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经魏中原 在一片欢腾与惊叹中，一个几乎被市场遗忘的历史规律正凝视着这场有色盛宴。第一财经记者统计2000年以来的行业涨幅排名数据，有色金属行业两次涨 幅排名全A第二，却从未登顶，也从未实现过连续两年跻身涨幅前五名的壮举。 此刻，有色金属正无限接近打破第一项纪录，其年涨幅领先第二名通信行业0.7个百分点，能否保持领先身位距离，登顶A股年度榜首，距离2025年A股收 官还有12个交易日，这一 ...

2025.12. 16 本文字数：2711，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 2025年，沉寂多年的有色金属板块迎来了久违的史诗级行情。截至12月16日，A股有色金属（申万 一级行业，下同）年度涨幅高达73.67%，超越通信板块（72.97%），位居全市场第一。而在上周 五，全A涨幅第一是通信行业，可见今年行业涨幅榜竞争激烈程度。 有色金属板块内个股表现更是精彩纷呈。斯瑞新材（688102.SH）以340.01%的涨幅领跑，招金黄 金（000506.SZ）、兴业银锡（000426.SZ）、中钨高新（000657.SZ）、洛阳钼业 （603993.SH）等一批耳熟能详的有色龙头，涨幅均超过150%，共计26只股年内翻倍，成为 2025年A股最靓丽的风景线。 在一片欢腾与惊叹中，一个几乎被市场遗忘的历史规律正凝视着这场有色盛宴。 第一财经记者统计 2000年以来的行业涨幅排名数据，有色金属行业两次涨幅排名全A第二，却从未登顶，也从未实现 过连续两年跻身涨幅前五名的壮举。 此刻，有色金属正无限接近打破第一项纪录，其年涨幅领先第二名通信行业0.7个百分点，能否保持 领先身位距离，登顶A股年度榜首，距离2 ...

或由于美联储如期降息，利好有色金属板块，12月11日，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格盘中涨逾1.3%，现涨0.77%，值得关注 的是，截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购2880万份，深交所数据显示，此前3日该ETF狂揽1.04亿元，反映资金看好板块后市，积极进场布局！ 值得一提的是，截至12月10日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.05亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 细分方向来看，黄金股表现活跃，山金国际领涨超9%，赤峰黄金涨逾3%，中金黄金涨超2%；直接配套低轨卫星组网需求，专注空间太阳能电池用锗晶片 建设项目，国内锗产业链最完整、产销量第一的云南锗业涨近9%。权重股紫金矿业涨近3%，洛阳钼业、山东黄金涨逾1%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两目图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 山舍国际 | 9.24% | | 有色金属 | 贵金属 | 黄金 | 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant increases in key stocks and ETFs, driven by favorable market conditions and expectations of monetary policy shifts from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 25, 2025, the three major A-share indices opened high, with the industrial non-ferrous metal theme index rising by 2.43% [1]. - Key stocks such as Dongyang Sunshine, Zhongjin Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum saw increases of 6.04%, 4.96%, and 4.76% respectively [1]. - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF (560860) increased by 2.40%, with a cumulative rise of 18.46% over the past three months as of November 24, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF had a turnover rate of 1.1% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 62.7573 million yuan [1]. - As of November 24, 2025, the latest scale of the Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF reached 5.627 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the ETF attracted a total of 156 million yuan in inflows [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, with a relatively independent trend [2]. - CITIC Construction believes that the non-ferrous bull market is expected to advance in 2026 [2]. - Key investment themes include industrial metals like copper and aluminum with constrained supply and recovering demand, energy metals like lithium and cobalt benefiting from battery demand, and strategic assets like gold and rare earths [2]. - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the industrial non-ferrous metal theme index accounted for 54.18% of the index, including Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [2].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals market, particularly focusing on copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and aluminum sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Copper Market - The copper market is facing supply tightness, with several mining companies lowering production guidance, leading to a year-on-year production decline of approximately 104,000 tons in Q3 2025, potentially reaching 150,000 tons by year-end [3][4]. - The anticipated new supply for 2026 is limited to about 300,000 tons, with Freeport's recovery not meeting expectations, which could exacerbate supply issues [4]. - Demand for copper remains strong, driven by a 4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in the U.S., particularly in power equipment [6]. - Copper prices are expected to break through the $14,000 to $15,000 per ton range by early 2026 [7]. Rare Earths - The relaxation of rare earth export controls is expected to lead to significant overseas restocking, replicating the substantial export increases seen in Q3 2025 [1][9]. - Domestic regulations on imported ore smelting are tightening, with non-compliant smelting plants facing consolidation or shutdown, which will support the fundamentals of the rare earth market [10]. - Key companies recommended include China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [10]. Lithium Market - The lithium market is projected to shift from marginal oversupply to tightness, with expected storage demand growth of 80% in 2026 [11]. - Following a production halt by CATL, inventory depletion has been significant, with weekly reductions increasing from 1,000 tons to 3,000 tons due to surging storage orders [12]. - Companies to watch include Guocheng Mining, Dazhong Mining, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, which are expected to benefit from price increases [12]. Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise, despite a current price drop to around 400,000 yuan, primarily due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [14]. - The industry is expected to face a shortage of 20,000 to 30,000 tons of raw materials in 2026, pushing prices higher [14]. - Companies of interest include Huayou Cobalt, Li Qun Co., and Tengyuan Technology [15]. Nickel Market - The nickel market is closely tied to Indonesia's RKA B quota disclosures, as Indonesia controls 60% of global nickel supply [16]. - A lower-than-expected quota could lead to a slight increase in nickel prices, which are currently supported at $15,000 per ton [16]. Aluminum Market - The aluminum sector is experiencing upward momentum due to multiple catalysts, including potential shutdowns of major production facilities in the U.S. and Mozambique [17][18]. - China's aluminum exports account for nearly 40%, and the outlook for external demand is optimistic, particularly following recent monetary easing in the U.S. and Europe [18]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metals market is bullish, with expectations of a comprehensive bull market for both non-ferrous and ferrous metals in 2026 [2]. - The focus on energy transition and technological advancements in mining and smelting processes is expected to influence supply dynamics significantly [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in non-ferrous metal prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including the re-evaluation of the global monetary system and the weakening of the US dollar, which has led to increased demand for these metals as a hedge against currency devaluation [3][4]. Group 1: Macro Environment - The current bull market in non-ferrous metals is rooted in a broader macroeconomic context, characterized by a long-term reassessment of the global monetary system and the creditworthiness of the US dollar [3]. - Analysts believe that the dual loosening of US fiscal and monetary discipline is a key driver of the long-term strong performance of non-ferrous metals, which are viewed as hard currencies against currency depreciation [3][4]. - The recent price movements of gold, silver, and copper reflect the volatility of the dollar's credit, with gold breaking the $4000 per ounce mark and copper nearing $11000 per ton [4]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing long-term constraints, with declining ore grades requiring more mining to obtain the same amount of metal, leading to significantly higher marginal costs [7]. - There is insufficient capital expenditure in the mining sector due to lower returns on investment, which has resulted in a cautious approach to expansion despite rising commodity prices [8]. - The reduction in high-quality mines and the strategic elevation of resource commodities are further tightening supply, as countries implement measures to enhance resource value [9]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - A new demand engine centered around AI and renewable energy is emerging, significantly increasing the demand for copper and other non-ferrous metals [10]. - The demand for metals related to AI infrastructure and energy upgrades is expected to grow, with renewable energy accounting for a substantial portion of demand in traditional cyclical industries [10]. - The shift in demand dynamics is evident as the contribution of real estate and infrastructure to metal demand has decreased, while the share from the renewable energy sector has increased significantly [10]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is poised for a "Davis Double Play," where both earnings and valuations could rise as the market recognizes the non-cyclical nature of high commodity prices [13]. - The combination of long-term supply constraints and increasing demand from manufacturing and strategic reserves positions non-ferrous metals as a core component of the ongoing commodity bull market [13]. - Analysts predict that non-ferrous metals will maintain a high level of prosperity in the coming years, driven by a recovery in downstream demand and a favorable capital expenditure cycle [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and new demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [2][4][9]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The current bull market in non-ferrous metals is rooted in a long-term reassessment of the global monetary system and the credit of the US dollar, with a weakening dollar driving demand for metals as a hedge against currency devaluation [4][5]. - The price of gold, which recently surpassed $4000 per ounce, is seen as a leading indicator for other metals, with copper and silver also experiencing significant price increases [5][11]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing long-term constraints due to declining ore grades and high costs of new capacity, which require optimistic price expectations to stimulate investment [7][8]. - There is a notable reduction in high-quality mines and an increasing strategic value of resource commodities, as countries implement measures to enhance resource value [8]. Group 3: New Demand Drivers - The demand for non-ferrous metals is being significantly boosted by AI and renewable energy sectors, with AI-related infrastructure and electric grid upgrades driving copper demand [9]. - The share of demand from the renewable energy sector in traditional cyclical industries is expected to grow, with projections indicating that it could account for over 20% of demand for metals like aluminum and copper [9][12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in metal prices reflects market skepticism about the sustainability of high prices, but there is potential for a "Davis Double Play" where earnings and valuations could rise simultaneously if high prices are accepted as a new norm [11][12]. - The overall outlook for non-ferrous metals remains positive, with expectations of sustained high demand and supply constraints leading to a "slow bull" market over the next one to two years [12].

Group 1 - The market is currently consolidating, with the leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) experiencing a decline of 2.37%, while trading volume exceeded 880 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - There is significant capital inflow into the non-ferrous metal ETF, with a net subscription of 68.4 million units as of the report, and a total of 210 million yuan raised over the past 20 days, reaching a new historical high of 493 million yuan as of October 9 [1] - Key components of the ETF show strong performance, with "Copper Doctor" remaining robust, silver stocks hitting the daily limit, and Jiangxi Copper rising over 6%, while some stocks like Western Gold and Huayou Cobalt saw declines exceeding 6% [1] Group 2 - The recent capital inflow into the non-ferrous metal ETF can be attributed to several factors, including a temporary retreat in gold prices due to eased geopolitical tensions, with gold prices dropping below 4000 USD [3] - Analysts predict that gold prices could potentially exceed 5000 USD per ounce if the current bull market continues, with some forecasts suggesting prices could reach as high as 7000 USD per ounce by 2026 [3] - In the copper sector, a recent accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is expected to tighten global copper supply, driving up copper prices and attracting investor interest [4] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal industry remains in a high state of prosperity, with precious metals influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, leading to international gold prices surpassing 4000 USD [5] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price increases due to supply constraints from the Indonesian mine shutdown and a weak dollar environment [5] - The rare earth sector is also showing strength due to new export control regulations, which are expected to enhance both valuation and performance in the sector [4][5] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metal sector is characterized by varying degrees of market conditions and drivers, suggesting a diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) could mitigate risks while capturing sector performance [6] - The ETF tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weightings in copper (27.6%), gold (14.5%), aluminum (13.1%), rare earths (10.4%), and lithium (8.4%), providing a balanced exposure to the sector [6]

Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw significant gains, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) reaching an intraday high of 3.25% and closing up 2.98%, indicating strong market interest and capital inflow, with a net subscription of 13.2 million units [1] - Specific leaders in the sector included China Rare Earths hitting the daily limit, Shenghe Resources rising over 9%, and Jiangxi Copper increasing nearly 7% [1] Group 2: Rare Earths Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have implemented stricter regulations on rare earth mining and separation, which is expected to drive prices higher [2] - North Rare Earth reported a staggering 1951.52% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year, highlighting strong performance in the sector [2] - Analysts suggest that the rare earth sector has upward momentum due to ongoing regulatory clarity and rising light rare earth prices [2] Group 3: Gold Sector - Shandong Gold and Western Gold reported significant profit increases, with Shandong Gold's net profit reaching 2.808 billion yuan, up 102.98%, and Western Gold's net profit soaring 131.94% to 154 million yuan [2] - The easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of a more accommodative U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy are seen as supportive factors for gold prices [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from CITIC Securities indicate that the non-ferrous metal sector is poised for upward price transmission due to domestic production optimization and low valuation levels in the industrial metals sector [3] - The sector is expected to benefit from a combination of monetary easing and improved market expectations, suggesting a potential bull market for non-ferrous metals [3] Group 5: Macro Drivers - Key macro drivers for the sector include expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks driving safe-haven demand for gold, and strategic metals benefiting from global competition [4] - The supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to remain tight due to limited supply growth and emerging industry demand [4] Group 6: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide diversified exposure across copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [6]

Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) reaching an intraday increase of 3.25% and closing up 2.98%, indicating strong market interest and capital inflow, with a net subscription of 13.2 million units [1] - In the sub-sectors, rare earth leaders such as China Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources hit the daily limit, while gold leaders like Zhongjin Gold and Western Gold rose over 4%, and copper leaders like Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum increased by nearly 7% and over 4% respectively [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced stricter regulations on rare earth mining and separation, which is expected to drive up rare earth prices further. Northern Rare Earth reported a staggering 1951.52% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year [2] - According to Everbright Securities, the clarity and strictness of rare earth supply-side policies, combined with the continuous rise in light rare earth prices, suggest that the rare earth sector may have further upward momentum [2] Group 3: Gold Sector - Shandong Gold and Western Gold reported significant profit increases, with Shandong Gold's net profit reaching 2.808 billion yuan, up 102.98%, and Western Gold's net profit soaring 131.94% to 154 million yuan [2] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the easing geopolitical situation and expectations of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy could support gold prices, making gold a tactical investment with a favorable risk-return profile [2] Group 4: Future Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - CITIC Construction pointed out that the current monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, along with domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors, is likely to enhance profitability across the metal sector and improve market expectations [3] - The industrial metals sector is currently undervalued, indicating potential for upward correction, with a bullish market for non-ferrous metals beginning to take shape [3] Group 5: Macro Drivers and Strategic Insights - The macro drivers for gold include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions increasing demand for safe-haven assets, and central bank purchases [4] - Strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to benefit from global geopolitical dynamics, while lithium, cobalt, and aluminum are influenced by domestic "anti-involution" policies leading to valuation recovery [4] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are characterized by limited supply growth against rising demand from emerging industries, maintaining a tight balance [4] Group 6: Investment Composition - As of the end of July, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weightings of copper (24.5%), aluminum (15.3%), gold (14.4%), rare earths (11.5%), and lithium (8.2%), providing a diversified investment approach [6]