Sugar Market - Raw sugar prices are hovering at the lower end of the range, with Stonex forecasting Brazil's Central-South sugar production for the 2026/27 season at 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from previous estimates [2] - Domestic prices from Guangxi sugar group are quoted at 5,270 to 5,370 CNY/ton, while Yunnan sugar group prices range from 5,110 to 5,180 CNY/ton [2] - The market is experiencing significant macroeconomic disturbances, with commodity prices in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy continuing to fluctuate widely, impacting sugar prices [2][3] Domestic Sugar Production and Sales - In January, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong provinces reported a total sugar production of 4.03 million tons, down 790,000 tons year-on-year, with a sales volume of 670,000 tons, the lowest in three years [3] - The sales rate for sugar in Guangxi is at 38%, the lowest in four years, while Yunnan's sales rate is around 54%, remaining stable compared to last year [3] - The upcoming week is expected to see continued weak sales in the domestic market, with caution advised for risks associated with the long holiday [3] Cotton Market - The supply side for the 2025/26 cotton season is expected to stabilize, with domestic cotton production and inspection volumes reaching recent highs, while future policies on cotton planting area regulation will be monitored [5] - The USDA's January report estimates global cotton production for 2025/26 at 26.03 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from previous estimates, while U.S. cotton production is expected to decrease by 76,000 tons to 3.031 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 3.4% [5][19] - As of February 5, the national cotton inspection volume is 7.3551 million tons, an increase of 964,400 tons year-on-year [19] Cotton Demand and Retail - Textile enterprises are gradually reducing their operating loads ahead of the holiday, with the comprehensive load for yarn at 47.36%, down 1.1 percentage points week-on-week [21] - Retail sales for clothing and textiles in December reached 166.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 1.5215 trillion CNY, up 3.2% [21] Cotton Import and Export - The cotton price difference between domestic and international markets is at a high of 3,655 CNY/ton, an increase of 2,368 CNY/ton year-on-year [23] - In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 40,000 tons, while cumulative imports for the year totaled 1.07 million tons, down 1.55 million tons year-on-year [23] Cotton Inventory - As of mid-January, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 5.8623 million tons, an increase of 77,600 tons month-on-month and 83,300 tons year-on-year [24] - The comprehensive inventory for yarn is at 24.34 days, down 0.9 days week-on-week, while cotton yarn inventory for textile enterprises is at 34.4 days, an increase of 0.96 days week-on-week [24] International Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment remains volatile, with limited fundamental drivers, leading to a predominantly fluctuating market for cotton [25] - Recent fluctuations in precious metal prices and rising market risk aversion have influenced the cotton market, with the U.S. cotton price reaching a six-month low [25] Domestic Market Outlook - The recent central government document emphasizes the stable development of cotton and sugar industries and the improvement of cotton target price policies [26] - The current target price for cotton is set at 18,600 CNY/ton, which has remained unchanged for three years, with expectations for adjustments in the subsidy policy for 2026 [26] - Despite high commercial cotton inventories and expected increases in import volumes, the market sentiment is expected to remain volatile, with limited upward pressure on cotton prices in the short term [26]

Sugar Market - Raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate, with Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season reaching 16.98 million tons as of January 7, a decrease of 5.77 million tons or 25.35% compared to the same period last year [2][15] - The sugar content of the cane is 11.54%, down 0.08% from last year, while the sugar production rate is 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% year-on-year [2][15] - Sugar production is reported at 1.53 million tons, down 567,300 tons or 27.03% from last year [2][15] - Domestic sugar prices in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,380 yuan per ton, while in Yunnan, prices are between 5,140 and 5,230 yuan per ton [2][15] - The market sentiment is generally positive due to rising prices in the financial markets and commodities, although the market is expected to face pressure post-Spring Festival as it enters a sales lull [3][15] Cotton Market - The new cotton planting area is expected to be strongly regulated, with the current cotton inspection volume at approximately 6.7 million tons, an increase of 827,000 tons year-on-year [16][17] - As of January 4, the comprehensive operating rate for yarn production is 49.65%, down 0.45 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a slight decrease in demand from textile enterprises [17][19] - In November, China's cotton imports reached 120,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month and 10,000 tons year-on-year, while cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, also showing an increase [18][19] - Commercial cotton inventory in China as of the end of December was 5.78 million tons, up 435,700 tons month-on-month and 996,000 tons year-on-year [19][20] - The market is experiencing divergence, with cotton prices rising due to various factors, including anticipated adjustments in planting areas and overall market sentiment, but the increase in raw material costs is compressing profit margins for textile companies [21][20]

Sugar Market Overview - Raw sugar prices in December fluctuated between 14.3 and 15.3 cents per pound. As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production for the 2025/26 season reached 7.825 million tons, an increase of 1.697 million tons or 27.69% year-on-year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 478, slightly up from 477 the previous year [2][11] - Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume as of December 27 was 14.0733 million tons, down by 2.8243 million tons or 16.71% year-on-year. The sugar content in sugarcane was 11.44%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous year, while the sugar extraction rate increased to 9.09%, up by 0.095% year-on-year. The total sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down by 240.6 thousand tons or 15.83% year-on-year [2][11] Domestic Market Insights - In December, the new sugar prices from Guangxi Sugar Group ranged from 5,310 to 5,410 yuan per ton, a decrease of approximately 150 yuan per ton. Yunnan Sugar Group's new sugar prices were between 5,140 and 5,240 yuan per ton, also down by about 150 yuan per ton. The main processing sugar factory prices ranged from 5,780 to 5,900 yuan per ton [3][12] - In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar, a decrease of 93.4 thousand tons year-on-year. From January to November 2025, sugar imports totaled 4.3416 million tons, an increase of 376.4 thousand tons or 9.49% year-on-year. For the 2025/26 season, sugar imports reached 1.1862 million tons, up by 115.9 thousand tons or 10.83% year-on-year [3][13] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market remains relatively calm, with no new updates from Brazil. The production progress in the Northern Hemisphere is the main focus, with India's production significantly ahead year-on-year. However, raw sugar prices have not yet reached levels that would allow India to export, indicating that production issues are more of an emotional restraint rather than an actual increase in trade flows. Future attention will be on India's latest production estimates [4][14] - The domestic sugar market experienced a decline in prices due to optimistic production expectations, leading to a recovery after an oversold situation. January is expected to see continued high production levels, but with ample supply, further price increases may face challenges. The market is expected to stabilize around 5,300 yuan per ton, with a focus on inventory accumulation before the upcoming holiday [4][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, ICE US cotton dropped 0.08% to 64.3 cents per pound on Tuesday, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.52% to 14,560 yuan per ton, with the position increasing by 7,966 lots to 876,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,280 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan. The international market has limited drivers, with US cotton in low - level oscillation. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton main contract increased in position and price, with market divergence. The market expects a reduction in cotton planting area in the new year, and there are also expectations for the adjustment of the cotton target price subsidy policy. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may adjust but has support at the bottom. The future focuses are the downstream textile enterprises' pre - Spring Festival restocking demand, possible macro - level reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the first quarter of next year, and the details of the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced around April 10th [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of sugar groups in different regions remained stable. Raw sugar prices fell by more than 2% at night and returned to the oscillation range. The market is dominated by the northern hemisphere's pressing rhythm. The domestic spot trading is tepid, and there is still some purchasing demand before the Spring Festival, which supports the price, but the market is cautious due to the increasing production situation, and it is difficult for the price to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest | Change | Main Basis | Change | Spot Location | Latest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 50 | 15 | 983 | - 123 | Xinjiang | 15,385 | 0 | | | | | | | | National | 15,543 | 2 | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 10 | - 13 | 142 | - 5 | Nanning | 5,360 | 0 | | | | | | | | Liuzhou | 5,400 | 0 | [2] 3.2 Market Information - On December 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 5,212, an increase of 127 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 3,973 [3]. - On December 30, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: Xinjiang 15,385 yuan/ton, Henan 15,581 yuan/ton, Shandong 15,581 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,635 yuan/ton [3]. - On December 30, the comprehensive load of yarn was 49.7, a decrease of 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 27, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 50.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.4, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - On December 30, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5,400 yuan/ton, also unchanged [3]. - On December 30, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 5,182, an increase of 144 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 2,991 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the internal and external spread under 1% tariff quota, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and the price index [6][8][9][10][11][13][14][16]. 3.4 Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, participates in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and writing of series books of the China Futures Association, and has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is in charge of research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, participates in large - scale projects and topics, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, participates in relevant topic writing of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won awards [20].

Sugar Market - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5310 to 5410 CNY/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's new sugar is priced between 5140 and 5240 CNY/ton. The main processing sugar factory prices range from 5750 to 5900 CNY/ton, with prices remaining stable across the board [2][7] - In the raw sugar market, prices fell by over 2% last night, returning to a fluctuating range, with the northern hemisphere's crushing pace expected to dominate the market in the future [2][7] - Domestic spot transactions are sluggish, but there is still some purchasing demand before the Spring Festival, which may support future prices. However, due to the increase in production, the market remains cautious, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [2][7] Cotton Market - On Tuesday, ICE cotton prices decreased by 0.08%, closing at 64.3 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 0.52%, closing at 14560 CNY/ton. The main contract's open interest rose by 7966 contracts to 876600 contracts, and the cotton 3128B spot price index increased by 40 CNY/ton to 15280 CNY/ton [3][7] - The international market shows limited driving factors, with both macroeconomic and fundamental aspects lacking significant disturbances, leading to low-level fluctuations in U.S. cotton prices [3][7] - The domestic market for Zheng cotton shows an increase in open interest, with prices at a high level causing some market divergence. The current market trend is primarily driven by expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area for the new year, which is now largely confirmed, although official details are still pending [3][7] - Looking ahead, there are expectations for policy changes, particularly regarding the cotton target price subsidy policy, which has been stable at 18600 CNY/ton for a long time. The market anticipates adjustments to the new year's target price [3][7] - In summary, short-term adjustments in Zheng cotton prices may occur, but there is support at the bottom. Key future points of focus include whether downstream textile companies will have new replenishment needs before the Spring Festival and whether there will be macroeconomic easing measures in the first quarter of next year, along with the announcement of new cotton target price subsidy policy details around April 10 [3][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Monday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.23% to 64.34 cents per pound, and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract dropped 0.41% to 14,435 yuan per ton, with the main contract's open interest decreasing by 35,230 lots to 868,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,240 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the overall driving force is limited, and U.S. cotton is mainly in a low - level oscillation. Domestically, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract declined with reduced positions. After the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose nearly 1,000 yuan per ton in December, the willingness to cash out increased. There are expectations for policies in the future, such as the cotton target price subsidy policy. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current level, but the downside space is limited. Future concerns include consumption performance and possible policy changes [1]. - For sugar, as of December 27 in the current crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 14.0733 million tons, a decrease of 2.8243 million tons (16.71%) from the same period last year. The sugar content in sugarcane was 11.44%, down 0.07% from the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 9.09%, up 0.095% from the same period last year. Sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, a decrease of 0.2406 million tons (15.83%) from the same period last year. Domestic spot prices were lowered again, and with the New Year's Day holiday approaching, market trading slowed down. The market will continue to be in a narrow - range consolidation, and the sales and production progress after the holiday should be monitored [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market has limited drivers, and the domestic main contract decreased with reduced positions. After a December price increase, there is a stronger willingness to cash out. Policy expectations exist, and short - term adjustment is expected with limited downside. Key concerns are consumption and policy changes [1]. - **Sugar**: Thailand's sugar production data shows a decline compared to last year. Domestic spot prices dropped, trading slowed down before the holiday, and the market is in consolidation. Post - holiday sales and production progress is the focus [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 35, up 5; the main contract basis was 1106, up 324. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,385, up 267, and the national spot price was 15,541, up 224 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 23, down 37; the main contract basis was 147, up 12. The Nanning spot price was 5360, down 20, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5400, down 20 [2]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On December 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 5085, an increase of 232 from the previous day, with 3762 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On December 29, the Nanning and Liuzhou sugar spot prices decreased by 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5038, with 2965 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those related to cotton (closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc.) and sugar (closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc.), showing historical data trends [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand outlook for domestic cotton in the new year is tight. With the high - yield of Xinjiang cotton this year, the overall supply increase is narrowing due to last year's low inventory and expected low imports. Meanwhile, consumption is supported by expanding spinning capacity, high - load operation of Xinjiang yarn mills, and improved export prospects. Also, expectations of a reduction in next year's cotton planting area in Xinjiang are strengthening, leading to a continuous and accelerating upward shift in cotton prices [1]. - In the short term, there is a risk of cotton price correction. The slowdown in grey fabric sales is affecting the yarn market, squeezing spinning profits and slightly reducing the operating rate. The increasing price difference between domestic and foreign cotton may boost demand for imported yarn, and the uncertainty of the new - season target price subsidy policy also adds to the risk. However, the overall downstream inventory pressure is not large, so the correction range may be limited [7]. - In the long term, the supply - demand of domestic cotton in the new year may remain tight. The rigid consumption of cotton has increased due to the expansion of downstream textile production capacity. Although domestic cotton production has increased significantly, imports are still needed to fill the gap. The probability of further increasing cotton import quotas is low [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - As of December 25, 2025, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume reached 6.0641 million tons, and the average daily notarized inspection volume has dropped to about 55,000 tons. Domestic cotton commercial inventory has significantly increased, but the overall supply increase in the new year is narrowing. The spot price is firm [1]. - Downstream, the expansion of domestic spinning capacity and high - load operation of Xinjiang yarn mills have increased the rigid consumption of cotton. Domestic demand is growing moderately with policy support, and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is conducive to the recovery of textile and clothing exports [1]. - This year is the last year of the three - year target price subsidy policy. Market expectations of policy adjustment next year are strong due to food supply policies and water resource issues in Xinjiang. A meeting was held to formulate a plan to reduce cotton planting area, further strengthening the expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang cotton area next year [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price range: CF2605 is expected to trade between 13,700 - 14,800. - Strategy: Long - term long positions can be laid out for CF2605 on dips [17]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for cotton in the near future: 13,700 - 14,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0817 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1968 [17]. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% at 14,700 - 14,800. They can also sell call options (CF2605C14800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 50% at 350 - 400 [17]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% at 13,700 - 13,800. They can also sell put options (CF2605P13800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 75% at 300 - 350 [17]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14,565, up 520 (3.7%); Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 14,535, up 520 (3.71%); Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 14,720, up 545 (3.84%) [18]. - Spot data: CC Index 3128B was at 15,317, up 172 (1.14%); CC Index 2227B was at 13,583, up 275 (2.07%); CC Index 2129B was at 15,559, up 170 (1.1%) [18]. - Spread data: CF1 - 5 spread was 30 (unchanged); CF5 - 9 spread was - 185, down 25; CF9 - 1 spread was 155, up 25 [18]. - Import price: FC Index M was at 12,898, up 129 (1.01%); FCY Index C32s was at 21,173, up 21 (0.1%) [18]. - Yarn data: Futures price was 20,585, up 535 (2.67%); spot price was 21,140, up 210 (1%) [18]. Chapter 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: As of December 18, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.9% (unchanged year - on - year and compared with the four - year average), the delivery rate was 99.3% (up 0.6 percentage points year - on - year and 1.2 percentage points compared with the four - year average), the processing rate was 88.0% (up 2.0 percentage points year - on - year and 7.9 percentage points compared with the four - year average), and the sales rate was 47.3% (up 25.0 percentage points year - on - year and 28.5 percentage points compared with the four - year average). In November, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles in China were 154.2 billion yuan, up 4.84% month - on - month and 4.19% year - on - year. In November 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 646,400 tons, up 6.32% month - on - month and 9.84% year - on - year; the export value was $5.274 billion, up 12.74% month - on - month and down 10.67% year - on - year; the export unit price was $8.16/kg, up 6.11% month - on - month and down 18.64% year - on - year [19]. - **Negative information**: In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, down 5.12% year - on - year and up 7.22% month - on - month. Among them, textile exports were $12.276 billion, up 1.03% year - on - year and 9.05% month - on - month; clothing exports were $11.594 billion, down 10.86% year - on - year and up 5.36% month - on - month. As of December 11, 2025, the cumulative net signed export volume of US cotton for the 25/26 season was 1.445 million tons, down 14.40% year - on - year, reaching 54.39% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 605,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 41.88% [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch Keep an eye on the subsequent export situation of US cotton as the current US cotton industry data is lagging [22]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and fund movement**: Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise this week with an enlarged increase. Funds actively entered the market, and market activity increased. The position of the main contract continuously increased, with bulls in the dominant position. The market's consensus on a bullish outlook was strong. After the accelerated upward movement of cotton prices on Friday, short - position holdings increased, and the long - short ratio weakened slightly, so short - term correction should be guarded against [26]. - **Month - spread structure**: Currently, Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 shows a slight back structure supported by industrial - end delivery, while contracts 05 and later maintain a contango structure. The far - month contracts maintain the expectation of tight supply - demand at the end of the year and show a strong trend [29]. - **Basis structure**: This week, the low - end of the cotton basis remained stable, and the high - end slightly decreased. The pick - up price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 14,960 yuan/ton for grade 3128B and 15,200 yuan/ton for grade 2129B. The sales basis of machine - picked cotton in Shihezi, Xinjiang, with a impurity content of less than 2.7% for the 2605 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 920 - 1030 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 15,080 - 15,250 yuan/ton [32]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - With policy support and technological innovation, Xinjiang yarn mills have a significant cost advantage over those in the inland, maintaining a certain profit. Inland mills were basically in a slight loss in the third quarter. From September, domestic cotton prices declined under the hedging pressure of ginning mills and the supply pressure of new cotton, while yarn spot prices were relatively stable, restoring domestic yarn mills' profits. In December, domestic cotton prices rebounded, squeezing yarn mills' profits again. This week, as cotton prices further increased and yarn prices slightly increased, yarn mills' profits weakened slightly compared with last week [34][35]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, the price trends of domestic and foreign cotton are relatively independent. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is low, resulting in a low level of cotton imports. In November 2025, China's cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons month - on - month and 10,000 tons year - on - year. The cumulative cotton import volume in the 25/26 season was 310,000 tons, down 30,000 tons year - on - year. This week, domestic cotton prices further increased, and foreign cotton prices stabilized and rebounded, slightly expanding the domestic cotton import profit [37]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - year Xinjiang cotton harvest is basically completed, and the output forecast has been slightly revised upwards. In terms of imports, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued an additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale duty quota, and together with the 894,000 - ton 1% tariff quota for 2026, the new - year cotton import volume is tentatively estimated at 1.1 million tons. The probability of further increasing the sliding - scale duty quota is low. Downstream, domestic demand may maintain a moderate recovery, and the export market is expected to support domestic cotton consumption due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations [42]. - The supply - demand balance sheet shows that in the 25/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 7.6 million tons, imports 1.1 million tons, consumption 8.6 million tons, and the ending inventory 6.26 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 72.79% [43].

Sugar Industry - As of December 24, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 11.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.96 million tons or 14.54% compared to the same period last year [3] - The sugar content of the sugarcane was 11.40%, down 0.08% from 11.48% last year, while the sugar production rate increased by 0.027% to 8.676% [3] - Sugar production amounted to 1.00 million tons, a decline of 0.17 million tons or 14.28% year-on-year [3] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,410 CNY per ton, while in Yunnan, prices are between 5,140 and 5,260 CNY per ton, remaining stable [3] - The raw sugar market is closed due to the Christmas holiday, and the domestic spot market has stabilized after a decline, with expectations of future fluctuations [3] Cotton Industry - On Thursday, ICE cotton futures were closed for the Christmas holiday, while Zheng cotton's main contract rose by 0.74% to 14,255 CNY per ton, with open interest increasing by 20,504 contracts to 835,100 contracts [4] - The cotton 3128B spot price index was 15,000 CNY per ton, up 90 CNY from the previous day [4] - The recent upward trend in Zheng cotton prices is driven by strong expectations, particularly regarding potential reductions in cotton planting areas in Xinjiang [4] - The highest price for Zheng cotton futures reached 14,265 CNY per ton, influenced by market sentiment [4] - Key future considerations include the sustainability of consumer demand and potential new inventory replenishment by textile companies before the Spring Festival, as well as macroeconomic factors such as possible interest rate cuts and upcoming cotton subsidy policy details [4][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.64% to close at 64.02 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.43% to close at 14,140 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 13,922 lots to 799,000 lots [2]. - In the international market, there are still macro - level disturbances. Trump stated that those who disagree with his views cannot be candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. The overall driving force is limited. In the domestic market, the recent price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has been oscillating upward. The strong expectation is one of the main factors driving the recent market. There are strong rumors about the regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang next year, and many institutions have reprinted relevant articles [2]. - Fundamentally, in the short - term, there are both long and short factors for Zhengzhou cotton. The subsequent focuses are: whether the consumption performance can continue and whether downstream textile enterprises will have a new round of restocking demand before the Spring Festival; whether there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut at the macro - level in the first quarter of next year, and the details of the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced around April 10th. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton has certain support driven by sentiment, and in the medium - to - long - term, the upside space of cotton prices is greater than the downside space [2]. Sugar - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that Ukraine's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will reach 1.49 million tons, the same as the estimate released in May but a decrease of 310,000 tons compared to the 2024/25 crushing season. The expected sugar export volume in the 2025/26 crushing season will reach 701,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to the May estimate, and the ending inventory is expected to be 679,000 tons, consistent with the previous forecast [2]. - In terms of spot prices, the price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,250 - 5,370 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,110 - 5,230 yuan per ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan per ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar factories is 5,690 - 5,900 yuan per ton, with individual prices up 20 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market has a mild rebound, and some institutions predict a decline in Brazil's production in the next crushing season. In the domestic market, spot prices have stabilized, rigid demand procurement has recovered, market sentiment has warmed up mildly, and the futures market has rebounded slightly. In the short - term, it is testing the pressure at the upper integer level, waiting for new guidance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | Spot Location | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 55 | - 5 | 1073 | - 11 | Xinjiang | 15067 | 81 | | | | | | | | National | 15213 | 59 | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 104 | 7 | 205 | - 29 | Nanning | 5270 | 0 | | | | | | | | Liuzhou | 5360 | 0 | [3] Market Information - On December 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,088, an increase of 13 from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 4,001 [4]. - On December 23, the arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were: 15,067 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,243 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,246 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,378 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On December 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.4, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 28, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 31.8, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - On December 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,270 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,360 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - On December 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 4,479, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 1,181 [4]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar, such as cotton's main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index; sugar's main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [7][8][10][11][13][14][16]

Sugar Industry - The USDA projects Ukraine's sugar production for the 2025/26 season to reach 1.49 million tons, unchanged from the May forecast but down by 310,000 tons from the 2024/25 season [2][4] - Ukraine's sugar export volume for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 701,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the May estimate, while ending stock is projected at 679,000 tons, consistent with previous forecasts [2][4] - In the domestic market, the Guangxi Sugar Group's price range is stable at 5,250 to 5,370 yuan/ton, while the Yunnan Sugar Group's price range is 5,110 to 5,230 yuan/ton, with some reductions of 10 yuan/ton; processing sugar factories have raised prices by 20 yuan/ton to a range of 5,690 to 5,900 yuan/ton [2][4] Cotton Industry - ICE cotton rose by 0.64% to 64.02 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract increased by 0.43% to 14,140 yuan/ton, with a rise in open interest by 13,922 contracts to 799,000 contracts [3][5] - The macroeconomic environment remains volatile, with expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy, leading to a weaker dollar index; however, fundamental drivers are limited [3][5] - The market is currently focused on the potential for sustained consumer demand and whether textile companies will engage in new inventory purchases before the Spring Festival; attention is also on possible monetary easing and upcoming cotton price subsidy policy details expected around April 10 [3][7]