一线城市楼市有"春意" 根据中指百城价格指数，2025年百城新建住宅价格累计上涨2.58%。分季度来看，四个季度累计分别上 涨0.52%、0.64%、0.47%、0.93%，第四季度出现了一定的"翘尾"现象。 虽然离立春尚有些日子，但积弱已久的房地产市场，在一线城市已有"春意"。 1月1日至1月2日，2026年深圳市首个好房节在宝安区海滨广场举行，现场人山人海。深圳市宝安区人民 政府官网显示，该次活动集结了深圳市16个优质在售楼盘，两天时间累计吸引超5000人次到场，接待咨 询超500组，约60批客户预约后续专车带看。 根据天风证券（601162）分析师谭逸鸣的统计，截至1月2日当周，我国一线城市新房（指商品房）成交 面积环比上升 74%、同比上升 5%，结束了此前连续12周的同比下降趋势。 "分城市看，北京、上海、广州、深圳分别环周上升13%、82%、64%、263%。"谭逸鸣在其研究报告中 指出，近期政策利好接连释放，叠加季节性效应，推动楼市成交活跃度和市场情绪改善。 对此，谭逸鸣认为，近期政策利好接连释放，叠加季节性效应，推动成交活跃度和市场情绪改善，从而 使得一线城市楼市在岁末年初之际出现回暖态势。 ...

12月3日，长江日报记者从市住房和城市更新局了解到，11月全市商品房网签销售面积196.91万平方米，环比增长56.99%；全市新建住 房网签套数10753套，环比增长2.93%。业内专家指出，政策利好叠加市场信心修复，武汉楼市正走出"U型"反转曲线，11月成交延续了10 月的回暖态势，呈现量价齐升的积极信号。 销售负责人骆莎琴介绍，该项目11月来访量近千组，11月22日云逸首次开盘成交近百套，销售额超过5.2亿元。近四成是首次来项目的 新客户，30—40岁改善型群体占51%，一孩家庭达54%。 资深设计师彭先生的购房经历颇具代表性。"我本人是做装修设计的，对住房品质要求会比其他人更加挑剔。"彭先生介绍，他经营的 设计公司位于企业天地3号，此前一直关注二七滨江板块的楼盘项目。 "云逸的定制化设计打动了我。"彭先生说，"开盘当天看到许多同行朋友也在选房，高品质楼盘根本不愁卖。"最终，他买下了一套198 平方米的四房，还推荐了多位朋友前来购房。 编辑：赖俊 3日中午，记者在武汉天地·云逸展示中心看到，沙盘前围着不少前来咨询的购房人。"近两周客流量激增，我们临时抽调了4人支 援。"销售客服张露说。 展示中心现场有不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The number of cities with rising housing prices has significantly decreased after a brief period of recovery, indicating a potential cooling in the real estate market [1][2][6]. New Housing Market - In April 2025, 22 out of 70 major cities saw new housing prices increase, down from 24 in March [2][10]. - First-tier cities experienced mixed results, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing slight increases of 0.1% and 0.5%, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2][10]. - The average price of new homes in first-tier cities fell by 2.1% year-on-year, with Shanghai showing a notable increase of 5.9% [5][10]. Second-Hand Housing Market - Only 5 cities reported increases in second-hand housing prices in April, a drop from 10 cities in March, with 64 cities experiencing price declines [2][10]. - The overall second-hand housing price index decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [10][11]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw year-on-year declines of 1.0%, 0.6%, 7.4%, and 3.7% respectively [5][10]. Market Trends and Dynamics - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with core cities showing resilience in demand, while second-tier and third-tier cities face ongoing downward pressure due to high inventory and insufficient demand [6][7][8]. - The "price for volume" strategy is prevalent, particularly in the second-hand market, where prices are being pressured down due to an oversupply of listings [8][9]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with expectations for further policy support to stabilize buyer confidence and market activity [9][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there are signs of stabilization, the recovery of the housing market will require a multi-faceted approach, including improved buyer confidence and economic conditions [9][12]. - The second quarter is expected to see a typical seasonal decline in prices, particularly in the second-hand market, as new supply impacts demand dynamics [11][12].

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou continues to show strong performance, with April seeing a total of 9,421 transactions, a 24% decrease from March but a 12% increase year-on-year, marking the highest transaction volume for April in nearly four years [1][2] - The average transaction price reached 29,634 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 1.9% year-on-year increase, indicating sustained demand despite a natural decline in transaction volume [1][2] Group 1 - The decline in transaction volume in April is attributed to the release of pent-up demand from March, influenced by seasonal factors such as the school enrollment period, and the overall economic environment not stimulating new demand [2] - The market has seen a depletion of lower-priced good properties, leading to a more rational negotiation process between buyers and sellers, which has slowed down transaction speeds [2] - Despite the decline, the market remains active, with April's transaction volume above 9,000 units, positioning Hangzhou as one of the most vibrant real estate markets in the country [2] Group 2 - In early May, the second-hand housing market maintained strong performance, with a 58% year-on-year increase in property viewings during the May Day holiday and a 15% increase in new contracts [3] - The active viewing numbers indicate robust demand, and the market is expected to experience fluctuations in both volume and price in the near future [3] - Leading indicators such as viewing numbers and client inquiries suggest that the net signing volume for second-hand homes will remain at a relatively good level [3]

Group 1: New Housing Market Trends - The new housing market in major cities experienced a "spot" heat during the May Day holiday, with significant discounts attracting buyers, including reductions of up to 1 million yuan on certain properties [1][2] - Developers in cities like Beijing launched aggressive promotions, with various types of properties, including residential and villas, seeing substantial price cuts [2][3] - The hot-selling properties are characterized by either high cost-performance ratios or superior design and quality due to upgrades in housing standards [1][3] Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market showed signs of stabilization after the traditional peak season, with a notable shift towards "price for volume" strategies in core cities [1][4] - In Beijing, the number of second-hand housing transactions remained above 15,000 units in March and April, with a year-on-year increase of 16.59% in April [5] - The market is experiencing a "cold-hot" differentiation, with demand concentrated in lower-priced segments, particularly for first-time buyers [5][6] Group 3: Regional Highlights - In Shanghai, the "national price king" project saw a subscription rate exceeding 220% before the holiday, indicating strong demand despite the high price point of over 17,000 yuan per square meter [6][7] - Other cities like Hangzhou and Wuhan also reported significant sales during the holiday, with some projects experiencing a "rush" for properties [8] - In Guangzhou, the market saw increased visitor numbers and sales, with some projects achieving sales of over 30 billion yuan during the holiday [9][10] Group 4: Shenzhen Market Performance - Shenzhen's new housing projects performed well during the holiday, with a year-on-year increase of 105% in signed contracts and 33% in viewings [10][11] - Local developers launched multiple projects, achieving significant sales figures, including over 1.78 billion yuan in sales for one project [11] - The second-hand market in Shenzhen also showed strong performance, with a 66% increase in signed contracts compared to the previous year [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a potential continuation of weak recovery in Q2, particularly in hot cities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the overall real estate market stabilized, with total transaction area for new and second-hand homes reaching 82.04 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17% [3][5]. - New home transactions in 115 key cities remained flat compared to last year, with a total area of 51.31 million square meters [5]. - First-tier cities outperformed second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities showing a 26% year-on-year increase, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced an 8% decline [5][7]. Group 2: City-Specific Trends - Hot cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw stronger recovery in second-hand home markets compared to new homes [7]. - Cities such as Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan showed signs of weak recovery, with transaction levels returning to last year's figures [9]. - In contrast, cities like Hefei and Nanjing displayed insufficient growth momentum, with declining customer conversion rates [16][19]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - Strong product offerings, particularly new regulations for high-efficiency housing, have driven market interest, with new products achieving high sales rates [22][23]. - Well-developed infrastructure, such as transit-oriented developments and school districts, has become a key selling point for properties [27]. - Discounted pricing and strong marketing strategies for entry-level homes have contributed to increased sales volume [30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend into Q2 2025, with new home quality upgrades attracting second-hand home buyers [31][32]. - The average sales price of second-hand homes in core cities has increased, indicating a warming market that extends to first-time buyers [31].

Market Overview - The national real estate market is showing a significant cooling trend, with new home transactions in 26 key cities down 14% compared to March, remaining flat year-on-year [1] - The second-hand housing market is even more sluggish, with transaction volumes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen dropping between 8% to 40% in the first 20 days of April [1][3] - In Hangzhou, transactions plummeted from 12,400 units in March to 7,505 units, a nearly 40% decline [1] Price Trends - The average second-hand home prices in 100 cities fell by 0.69% month-on-month, with 19 cities, including Huai'an and Yancheng, experiencing declines exceeding 1% [3] - First-tier cities saw a slight increase in new home prices by 0.37%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decrease of 0.11% [3] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "two extremes" scenario, reflecting buyers' preference for core assets and caution towards non-core areas [3] - The ongoing US-China trade war poses significant challenges, with cities heavily reliant on exports seeing a 10% week-on-week drop in second-hand home transactions, while those less reliant on exports experienced a 12% increase [3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Since the introduction of the 926 policy last year, no strong stimulus measures have been implemented for nearly seven months, with the latest political meeting emphasizing the need for long-term stability [4] - Some cities, like Nanjing and Shanghai, are beginning to test policy limits by cracking down on fake listings and misleading information to stabilize market expectations [5] Economic Recommendations - Nomura's chief economist suggests three key directions: increasing fiscal subsidies, promoting real estate industry clearing, and stabilizing export expectations through technological innovation [6] - Positive signals are emerging in some cities, such as Shenzhen, where new home transactions increased by 68% year-on-year, indicating continued attractiveness of core assets [6] Future Outlook - The real estate market is currently facing "threefold pressure": data cooling, trade friction, and policy observation [6] - Despite these challenges, there are indications that the market is not in a state of complete recession, as evidenced by policy rumors and strong sales of improvement projects in core cities [6] - For buyers, focusing on long-term value in cities with population inflow, industrial support, and favorable policies is crucial for resilience in the market cycle [6]

Core Insights - The Shanghai new housing market continues to show a positive trend in April, characterized by a "quality over quantity" shift, with high-end and improvement-type residences becoming mainstream while ordinary demand decreases [1][8] New Housing Market - The supply of new homes in Shanghai significantly decreased in April, with 31 projects launching a total of 4,125 units, reflecting a substantial drop compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - High-end and improvement-type projects now account for over 60% of the new housing supply, indicating developers' focus on premium land and high-end buyer demand [1] - The Pudong New Area led the city with 847 units, followed by Baoshan District with 1,167 units, highlighting their importance as major residential areas [3] - Despite lower supply, high-quality projects continue to see strong demand, with notable sales such as the Feiyun Yuefu project achieving a subscription rate of 412% [3][5][6] Overall Transaction Performance - The overall transaction data for April shows a steady market, with 3,131 units sold out of the 4,125 units supplied, resulting in a supply-demand ratio of 1.3, indicating a balanced market [11] - The average transaction price was 64,755 yuan per square meter, down 21.87% month-on-month, yet improvement-type demand remains dominant [11] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai exhibited strong activity, with a 62.79% increase in transactions, totaling 6,279 units in the week of April 7-13 [12] - By April 26, the total number of second-hand units signed reached 20,316, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% [13] - The active second-hand market is driving demand for new homes, particularly in improvement-type areas, as buyers transition from second-hand to new properties [14] Market Outlook - The upcoming May Day holiday is expected to maintain the market's momentum, with several projects set to open for subscription, including popular ones like Green City Chaoming Dongfang [15] - Analysts suggest that the revival of the new housing market, especially in improvement-type areas, may accelerate during the holiday period, although disparities between high-demand and less popular projects will persist [18]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shenzhen and other first-tier cities is experiencing a notable recovery, with significant sales performance in April, driven by strong demand and supportive policies [2][3][10]. Group 1: Shenzhen Market Performance - The Hongshan Huafu project in Shenzhen sold 184 units within an hour of its launch, marking it as the second "daylight plate" of the year [1][5]. - In April, Shenzhen's new home sales reached 4,751 units, a year-on-year increase of 68%, while second-hand home sales were 6,266 units, up 27% [2]. - The strong sales in Shenzhen reflect a robust demand for affordable housing, supported by favorable policies [5][16]. Group 2: Overall Market Trends - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou is also showing high transaction volumes, indicating a sustained recovery trend [3][6][7]. - The "small spring" phenomenon in March has continued into April, with many cities maintaining high sales levels [4][10]. - Despite the overall positive trend, some cities have seen a decline in sales compared to March, highlighting a mixed performance across different regions [11][12]. Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need for a stable real estate market, with expectations of further policy support to enhance housing supply and stabilize prices [13][14][16]. - The upcoming housing exhibition in Shenzhen aims to promote quality projects and maintain market enthusiasm [15]. - Analysts predict that the real estate market will continue to recover in the second quarter, driven by ongoing policy measures and increased supply of quality housing [16].

点击上图 ▲立即报名 商务部召开外资企业圆桌会 4月 23日，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国4月Markit综合PMI初值51.2，为2023年12月以来的最低值，预期52，前值53。其中，新订单指数从 3月的53.3降至52.5；产出价格环比上涨，为去年3月以来的最高。美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.6，前值54.4。服务出口（包括 旅游及其他跨境服务）下降幅度为2023年1月以来最大，尤其显著抑制了需求增长。 4月 23日，商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激主持召开外资企业圆桌会，就美加征关税给在华外资企业投资经营带来的影响与企业交流。 会议由中国外商投资企业协会主办，80余家外资企业和在华外国商会代表参会。财政部、商务部、海关总署、国家药监局有关司局负责人参会并 回应企业反映的问题诉求。 凌激表示，希望外资企业发出理性声音，坚定信心、克服困难、化危为机，共同战胜单边主义和保护主义。中国将继续扩大高水平对外开放，努 力保障产供链稳定畅通，推动解决外资企业问题诉求。与会企业代表表示，中国的外资政策持续、稳定、可预期，愿继续对华投资，深化互利合 作，共同应对挑战。（央视新闻） ｜点评｜ ...