1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expectation that the supply of oils and fats in both the producing regions and the domestic market will be abundant, oils and fats, mainly palm oil and rapeseed oil, are expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to short-term short, and exit when the price in the producing regions stabilizes or there is new positive driving force [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil producing regions have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter will increase. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but it is uncertain how much will enter commercial crushing. There are expectations of reconciliation between China and Canada, and the bumper harvest in producing regions such as Canada and Australia this year is marginally bearish [5]. - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. In the producing regions, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation time of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, but there is an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5]. - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously destocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of restocking due to a large number of vessel purchases by traders. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles to implementation next year. The US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Short - term shorting is recommended [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short palm oil and rapeseed oil. For arbitrage, go long Y01 and short P01. For options, buy call options for protection. Risk factors to focus on include unexpected production cuts and policy disturbances [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences of different contracts such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences of domestic soybean oil and palm oil. The data sources are Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature data of Southeast Asia in the past and future periods, including the precipitation in the past 14 days, the precipitation anomaly in the past 14 days, the precipitation forecast in the next 7 days, the temperature anomaly in the next 7 days, and the precipitation and temperature anomaly in the next 8 - 14 days [18][20][21]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is GAPKI and the research institute of Guomao Futures [29][33][31]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is MPOB and the research institute of Guomao Futures [34][40][39]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: It presents the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [41][45][44]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of palm oil in China from 2021 to 2025. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [47][51][58]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It presents the temperature and precipitation distribution in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the US soybean good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress from 2021 to 2025 [59][61][67]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It shows the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and export volume to China of US soybeans, as well as the monthly export volume and CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026. The data sources are USDA, ANEC, Steel Union, and the research institute of Guomao Futures [71][76][82]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It presents China's weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [86]. - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: It shows the precipitation forecast, precipitation distribution, and temperature distribution in the Canadian and European rapeseed - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the Canadian soil moisture [87][96]. - **Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: It presents the FOB price of rapeseed, weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, expected domestic arrival volume of rapeseed, and domestic arrival volume of rapeseed oil. The data sources are public information and the research institute of Guomao Futures [99][101][111]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and weekly inventory of domestic rapeseed oil from 2021 to 2025 [105][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the domestic supply has significant pressure, with soybean inventories at a record high. In the short - term, there is no improvement in US soybean imports, and the soybean meal destocking season provides some support. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [3][4]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the decreasing export volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the upward movement of the oil price center. Currently, the supply - demand is balanced or slightly loose, but with a tight expectation in the medium - term, so the strategy is to buy on dips [6][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data from Brazil's central - southern region in September is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With Brazil's high - level production, the overall view is bearish, and the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals including poor consumption during the peak season, low downstream operating rates, and high selling - hedging pressure from the expected high yield, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - For eggs, the spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. - For pigs, although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 20 yuan, with the East China price at around 2910 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but pick - up was good. According to MYSTEEL, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.3335 million tons this week, compared with 2.166 million tons last week. As of October 17, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 23.27%, compared with 9.33% last year [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the low valuation of US soybeans and Sino - US trade relations, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, Brazil's expanding planting area, and potential short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the high domestic supply pressure and the soybean meal destocking season provide some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: According to ITS and AMSPEC, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than 1.677346 million tons in August. Last Friday, domestic oils rose due to positive market sentiment [6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Internationally, the supply - demand of palm oil is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. Domestically, the spot basis is stable at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories in producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil, and limited production increase of palm oil, the oil price center is expected to rise. With the current balanced or slightly loose supply - demand and a tight expectation, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 5412 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 328 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: In the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased year - on - year. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year. From January - September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.17 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons year - on - year [10]. - **Strategy**: The September data from Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. With the expected production increase in major northern hemisphere producers in the new season and Brazil's high - level production, the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13335 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price index (CCIndex)3128B rose by 15 yuan/ton. The basis of (CCIndex)3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1344 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.17 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.02 yuan/kg. The spinning mill operating rate was 65.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The Sino - US trade conflict is unfavorable to cotton prices. The consumption during the peak season is weak, the downstream operating rate is low, and there is a high yield expectation in the new season, resulting in high selling - hedging pressure [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak fundamentals and macro - level negative factors, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices continued to fall, with powder eggs performing weakly. The large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and those in Guantao fell to 2.42 yuan/jin. The laying hen inventory is high, and after the temperature drop, the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered [16]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The market has sufficient large and medium - sized eggs and a slight shortage of small - sized eggs. The downstream market's enthusiasm for restocking has increased, and the participation intention of all sectors has strengthened after the temperature drop [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with some regions rising or falling slightly. The average price in Henan rose to 11.46 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan remained at 10.84 yuan/kg, and that in Guangxi fell to 10.3 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for price adjustment was low, with some regions showing reluctance to sell at low prices and some regions reducing prices due to sales pressure [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive [20]. - **Strategy**: The near - term spot price rebound space is limited, and the futures market should focus on consuming the premium in the near - term contracts and suppressing the valuation in the far - term contracts. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of oils and fats remains stable, and prices continue to fluctuate. The impact of Sino - US trade frictions needs to be monitored in the later stage [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9330.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 34 yuan and a decline of - 0.36%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8240.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 28.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.34%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9959.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 63.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.63% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9270.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 50.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.54%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10260.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.58% [1] Spot Basis - The spot basis of palm oil in Guangdong was P01 + - 60.00, with a change of + 84.00 yuan. The spot basis of soybean oil in Tianjin was Y01 + 200.00, with a change of + 38.00 yuan. The spot basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was OI01 + 301.00, with a change of + 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information US Soybean Export Inspection - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 994008 tons, compared with 783495 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year (starting from September 1) was 4040284 tons, compared with 5463369 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production and Export Forecast - CONAB predicts that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.64 million tons, an increase of about 6 million tons year - on - year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.6% to 49.07 million hectares. The soybean export volume is expected to increase to 112.11 million tons, while the US soybean export volume is expected to decline [2] Brazilian Crop Planting Progress - In Brazil, the soybean planting progress in Paraná state is the fastest, with a sowing rate of 31%, followed by Mato Grosso state with a planting rate of 18.9%. Most regions are waiting for rainfall, which is expected to resume in the second half of October [2] Brazilian October Export Forecast - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean export volume in October to be 7.31 million tons, the soybean meal export volume to be 2.06 million tons, and the corn export volume to be 6.46 million tons, all higher than last week's expectations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The medium - term outlook for global soybean supply remains loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short term, due to the US's tariff threats, soybean prices will likely trade in a range [4]. - For oils, the medium - term outlook is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asia, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [6][7]. - For sugar, given the high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. - For cotton, considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. - For eggs, a bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. - For live pigs, in the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns over China - US trade relations. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, domestic port soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons, and soybean meal inventories continued to decline. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1674 million tons [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Imported soybean costs are supported by low US soybean valuations, China - US trade relations, and Brazil's planting season trading. However, they also face pressure from factors such as global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Strategy**: Given the large domestic supply pressure and high soybean inventories, the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, due to tariff threats, prices will likely trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the previous month. As of October 10, 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories increased by 1.31% week - on - week, and palm oil inventories decreased slightly. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated and declined [6]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term outlook is supported, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian data shows that in the first half of September, sugar production increased year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [9][11]. - **Strategy**: Given high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates are lower than in previous years, and cotton inventories are lower than the five - year average [14]. - **Strategy**: Considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: National egg prices are stable or falling, with supply - demand pressure remaining. Producers are eager to sell, but the circulation speed is slow [17]. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening provides some support, while southern farmers face greater pressure to sell [19]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/Meal**: In the medium - term, with high domestic soybean inventory and expected global supply surplus, the general strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short - term, due to tariff issues, it will mainly trade in a range [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Medium - term, there is support for oils and fats. Before inventory accumulates and demand shows negative feedback, a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term, due to trade war concerns, it's advisable to wait and see [5][6]. - **Sugar**: With expected increases in production in major northern hemisphere countries and high production in Brazil's central - south region, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: Given weak fundamentals and macro - negative impacts, short - term cotton prices are likely to decline [12][13]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, a bearish view on near - term contracts is appropriate. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound during the stocking period. In the long - term, sell on rallies [15][16]. - **Pigs**: In the fourth quarter, there is large supply pressure. For near - term contracts, reduce short positions. After spot prices stabilize, consider a 13 - positive spread strategy. For far - term contracts, maintain a reverse spread strategy [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to Sino - US trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices rose over the weekend. MYSTEEL predicts this week's domestic soybean crushing volume to be 216.74 million tons. Import soybean costs face both support and pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, sell on rallies; short - term, trade in a range [2][3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased compared to the same period last month. The 2026 average price of crude palm oil is expected to be between 3900 - 4100 Malaysian ringgit per ton. Last Friday, domestic oils and fats prices fell [5]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, buy on dips; short - term, wait and see [5][6]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Last Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in the first half of September. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Last Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose first and then fell. Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports, and China responded with counter - measures [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, expect price decline [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable over the weekend. Supply is large, and consumption is weak. Egg prices are expected to be weak in early October and may rebound slightly later [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, bearish on near - term contracts; medium - term, expect a rebound; long - term, sell on rallies [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices continued to fall over the weekend, with some areas stabilizing. Supply is abundant, and some farmers are selling pigs actively [18]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts; consider a 13 - positive spread after spot prices stabilize; maintain a reverse spread for far - term contracts [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to high domestic supply pressure, sufficient ship purchases, high soybean inventory, and no clear positive factors in cost, combined with Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax, it may trigger a short - term decline. In the medium - term, with global soybean supply being loose, the general direction is to sell on rebounds, but the market will mainly fluctuate in a range because of low US soybean valuation and uncertainties in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production increase potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in Indonesia's export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption. Currently, the market is in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and demand in reality but expected to be tight in the future. In the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high current valuation, the strategy is to buy after a stable decline [8]. - **Sugar**: Affected by record - high domestic imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall sugar price trend is bearish. Technically, short - term factors are not conducive to further decline, so it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [11]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the downstream industry's startup rate is growing weakly, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the new year, causing the cotton price to decline. However, the current low domestic cotton inventory and price may provide support. With both bullish and bearish factors, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - term futures market is weak, while the far - term market is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. The supply side has potential for marginal improvement, and the demand side has many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term contracts after a decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The group farms' seasonal supply recovery exceeds expectations, and weak demand slows down the slaughter progress. Coupled with panic selling by retail farmers, the spot price may decline faster. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - term contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks and using selling options to deal with potential volatility decline [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Friday, US soybeans fluctuated. Argentina's price - cut sales ended, and the market focused on new - crop production. Last week, domestic soybean meal trading was average, with good pick - up at first but a significant decline at the end of the week. Last week, 2.27 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 1.76 million tons are expected to be crushed. Argentina has cancelled the export tax after achieving its export target, but it still has a great impact on the international soybean meal market. Brazilian premiums are temporarily stable. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by low US soybean valuation, Sino - US trade relations, and the Brazilian planting season, but also faces pressure from global protein raw material oversupply and potential short - term oversupply if Sino - US relations ease [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, it may decline; in the medium - term, it will mainly fluctuate in a range [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, but increased by 2.6% in the first 15 days, 8.7% in the first 20 days, and 11.3% - 12.9% in the first 25 days. Its production decreased by 3.17% in the first 10 days, 8.05% in the first 15 days, 7.89% in the first 20 days, and 4.14% in the first 25 days compared to the same period last month. In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased from 3.606 million tons in June to 3.537 million tons, production increased from 5.289 million tons to 5.606 million tons, inventory increased from 2.53 million tons to 2.568 million tons, and domestic consumption decreased from 2.072 million tons to 2.034 million tons. Analysts predict that global palm oil and soybean oil prices will rise from January to June 2026 due to tight supply and potential increased biodiesel consumption in the US, Brazil, and Indonesia [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term, and the strategy is to buy after a stable decline [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose first and then fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained stable. StoneX predicted that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season may reach 620.5 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase, and sugar production will reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase. As of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 85 to 76, and the sugar volume waiting to be loaded decreased from 3.2827 million tons to 3.1039 million tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall trend is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the January contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day. The spot price also decreased slightly. As of the week of September 26, the spinning mill's startup rate was 66.6%, down 5.8 percentage points from the same period last year and 10.44 percentage points from the five - year average; the weaving mill's startup rate was 37.8%, down 15.8 percentage points from the same period last year and 16.66 percentage points from the five - year average. Cotton commercial inventory was 1.03 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from the same period last year and 0.35 million tons from the five - year average. As of September 18, the cumulative export contract volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 0.9465 million tons, down 0.19 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative export contract volume to China was 0.0168 million tons, down 0.0907 million tons year - on - year and 0.3728 million tons from the five - year average [13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With both bullish and bearish factors, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with slight declines in some areas. The market supply is sufficient due to high inventory of laying hens and cold - stored eggs. With the approaching festival, risk - control sentiment increases, but pre - festival small - batch stocking provides some support, so the price is expected to stabilize after a slight decline [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term contracts after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly, mainly declining with slight increases in some areas. Some farmers were waiting and seeing, while others sold at a reduced price due to sales pressure, and a few farmers tried to support the price. It is expected that today's pig prices will be stable or increase [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short the near - term contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks and using selling options to deal with potential volatility decline [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [10] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. Looking ahead, soybean oil may face supply pressure and its basis may be under pressure; palm oil is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October; rapeseed oil may face supply shortages after the National Day, and its basis is firm, with the traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter expected to provide some support [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,236 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 yuan or 0.86%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 166 yuan or 1.99%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 94 yuan or 0.93% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,190 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 60 yuan or 0.65%, and the spot basis was P01 - 46, a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 130 yuan or 1.53%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 218, a week-on-week increase of 36 yuan; the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 90 yuan or 0.87%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 218, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan [1] 3.2 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month. During the week of September 19 - 25, 4 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, all with a shipment date of October, and 1 vessel was cancelled, with a shipment date of November [2] - Demand: As of the week of September 25, the trading volume of palm oil at key domestic oil mills was 8,634 tons, an increase of 5,391 tons or 166.23% from the previous week [2] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 58.51 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.64 tons or 8.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.28 tons or 23.87% [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month-on-month increase of 609,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11%. From January - August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 73.312 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.833 million tons or 4%. It is estimated that 10.3 million tons will arrive in September, 9 million tons in October, and 7.5 million tons in November. The purchase of vessels for the September - October shipment period has basically been completed, but the purchase progress for the November - January shipment period is slow [3] - Demand: During this statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil at key domestic oil mills was 75,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 15,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 17.58% [3] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2359 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,300 tons or 1.22%, and a year-on-year increase of 105,700 tons or 9.35% [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of September 19, the rapeseed crushing volume at coastal oil mills was 49,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. After the implementation of the anti-dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed, domestic oil mills will generally face a shortage of raw materials after the National Day, leading to a shutdown wave in the industry. Currently, the market is pinning its hopes on the arrival schedule of Australian rapeseed [4] - Demand: In September, the rigid demand brought by the start of the school term boosted the consumption of oils, and the market's pick-up pace significantly accelerated [5] - Inventory: As of this week, the national imported rapeseed inventory was 46,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory at coastal oil mills was 75,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,000 tons [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - This week, the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. The temporary exemption of export tariffs on agricultural products in Argentina at the beginning of the week led to a sharp decline in soybean oil prices, and palm oil was also dragged down. Rapeseed oil continued to perform strongly due to factors such as tight rapeseed supply, stagnant imports of Canadian rapeseed, and continuous destocking of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [5] 3.6 Future Outlook - Soybean oil: The supply pressure may continue, and the basis may face pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-US trade relations [6] - Palm oil: It is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October [7] - Rapeseed oil: After the National Day, it may face supply shortages, and the basis is firm. The traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter is expected to provide some support. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-Canadian trade relations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term bullish view on the oil and fat industry, with short - term retracement and consolidation [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the report believes that the oil and fat market will rise in the medium and long term, but currently, there is no fundamental driver. It is expected to wait for the bullish drive from the origin supply side to bring a new round of upward trend. The key is to select the right entry point [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bullish, and soybean oil is neutral. The Malaysian report is neutral, and the USDA report on US soybeans is slightly bearish with a downward adjustment in the good - to - excellent rate. Indonesia's low inventory in June and firm export prices support international palm prices, and the anti - dumping deposit on Canadian rapeseed remains, making it difficult for Australian rapeseed imports to supplement rapeseed oil supply [5]. - **Demand**: It is neutral to bearish. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia and the US is lower than previously expected, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil and fat trading volumes compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory continued to increase last week, creating a bearish expectation gap compared to the previous "peak inventory and destocking" expectation, mainly affecting the weakening of the basis and the monthly spread [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is neutral to bearish. Trump's visit to China may bring expectations of trade talks, Indonesia is expected to implement B45 next year, and the US biodiesel RVO remains uncertain [5]. - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term retracement and consolidation. It maintains the view of a medium - to - long - term rise in oil and fat, waiting for bullish drivers from the origin supply side [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and go long on dips. For arbitrage, go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - This part presents multiple charts related to the closing prices of oil and fat main contracts, price spreads, and spot price differences, but no specific text analysis is provided [7][9][14][15]. PART THREE: Fundamentals of Oil and Fat Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asia**: It shows data on Southeast Asian weather, including precipitation and temperature forecasts, as well as Indonesia's and Malaysia's monthly supply and demand data for palm oil, such as production, export volume, and inventory [19][21][31][37]. - **India**: It presents India's monthly imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the international soybean - palm oil price spread [44]. - **China**: It includes data on China's palm oil import profit, supply and demand, such as import volume, trading volume, and inventory, as well as data on soybean and rapeseed, including US soybean production conditions, US and Brazilian soybean exports, and Canada and EU rapeseed production and exports, and China's domestic processing and inventory of related oils [50][61][73][88][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week, with palm oil and soybean oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased, and the fundamentals of different oils varied. The MPOB report on palm oil was neutral to bearish, causing the price center to shift downward. [4][34][36] - In the short - term, the center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600. In the medium - to - long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [37][38] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From September 5 to September 12, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) decreased by 230 to 9296, a week - on - week decline of 2.41%, and the spot price decreased by 196 to 9354, a week - on - week decline of 2.05%. [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) increased by 39 to 9857, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%, and the spot price increased by 98 to 10020, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%. [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) decreased by 128 to 8322, a week - on - week decline of 1.51%, and the spot price decreased by 120 to 8408, a week - on - week decline of 1.41%. [4] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 11, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 72 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 127 yuan/ton (an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 24 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. [10] - As of September 12, 2025, the YP spread was - 974 yuan/ton (an increase of 102 yuan/ton from the previous week). [10] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 61.93 tons (an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week), and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills was 125.13 tons (an increase of 1.25 tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 196.76 tons (an increase of 1.47 tons from the previous week). [13] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of August increased by 4.18% from the previous month to 220 tons. [18] - In June 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons. [18] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.10 tons (an increase of 60.5 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 731.70 tons (an increase of 34.85 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 60% (a decrease of 1% from the previous week). [21] - As of September 11, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 600.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton from the previous week). [21] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 10 tons (unchanged from the previous week). [27] - As of September 11, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2284.80 yuan/ton (an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton from the previous week). [27] Demand Side - On September 11, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 3500 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 7000 tons. The POGO spread was 416.74 dollars/ton (a decrease of 11.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). [32] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 805 tons. [32] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation period of Canadian rapeseed to March 9, 2026. [34] - Foreign: USDA's monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. [34] - Import and Crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 1% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained at 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [34] - Inventory: As of September 5, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 9.7 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.93 tons, and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills increased to 125.13 tons. [34] - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.05%, the spot price of soybean oil decreased by 1.41%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.99%. [34] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600 next week. [37] - Medium - to - long - term: The weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [38] - Next week's focus and risk warnings include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather. [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of the MPOB report next week and the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce until March 9, 2026 also affects the market. The production, export, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia in August are expected to change, with expected export growth and inventory accumulation. For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [23][24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil (P2601), rapeseed oil (OI2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) increased by 2.25%, 0.30%, and 1.10% respectively. The spot prices of palm oil decreased by 1.38%, rapeseed oil increased by 0.22%, and soybean oil increased by 1.19% [2]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 72 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 119 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 10 yuan/ton (down 108 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of September 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 1076 yuan/ton (down 118 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons (down 0.1 tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 61.01 tons (up 2.8 tons from the previous week), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 123.88 tons (up 5.28 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 195.29 tons (up 7.98 tons from the previous week) [8]. Supply - side of Palm Oil - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% to 211 tons compared to the previous month. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [13]. Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 905.60 tons (up 15.8 tons from the previous week), the national major oil factory soybean inventory was 696.85 tons (up 14.32 tons from the previous week), and the oil factory operating rate was 61% (down 1% from the previous week). As of September 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 587.80 yuan/ton (down 1.8 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil factories was 10 tons (down 5 tons from the previous week). As of September 5, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2285.60 yuan/ton (up 289.4 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. Demand - side - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 233 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 2000 tons. The POGO spread was 428.24 dollars/ton (down 22.75 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [22]. Strategy Recommendation - For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [25][26]. Next Week's Concerns - The concerns include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and weather [27].