东吴证券认为，伴随政策发力、经济企稳、券商数字化转型需求持续加速，金融科技市场逐步进入上行 通道。中短期来看，资本市场的活跃度仍然是最大的支撑因素，看好政策的持续性及政策落地效果。长 期来看，宏观环境的稳中向好，以及资本市场改革深化将推动证券科技及券商IT行业ROE中枢稳步抬 升，板块长期投资价值逐渐凸显。 多角度把握金融科技机会，建议重点关注金融科技ETF（159851）及其联接基金（A类013477、C类 013478），标的指数全面覆盖了互联网券商、金融IT、跨境支付、AI应用、华为鸿蒙等热门主题。截 至9月26日，金融科技ETF（159851）最新规模超114亿元，近1个月日均成交额超12亿元，规模、流动 性在跟踪同一标的指数的5只ETF中断层第一！ 数据来源：沪深交易所等。 29日午后，东方财富登顶A股吸金榜，非银金融板块获主力资金爆买超213亿元，金融科技直线冲高， 指南针涨超12%，财富趋势涨逾8%，东方财富、银之杰涨逾7%。 热门ETF方面，同类规模超百亿、流动性断层第一的金融科技ETF（159851）场内价格盘中飙升4.8%， 现涨4.21%，实时成交额超14亿元，资金实时净申购2.57亿份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial technology sector is experiencing a significant surge, with notable stock price increases and strong ETF performance, indicating a bullish market sentiment driven by liquidity and capital inflows [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Financial technology stocks, including Dazhihui, Electric Science Digital, Wealth Trend, and Advanced Communication, saw price increases of over 4% and 2% respectively [1]. - The financial technology ETF (159851) experienced a price increase of over 1%, with a real-time trading volume exceeding 7 billion CNY and net subscriptions surpassing 1 million shares [1]. - A-shares are currently in a "liquidity bull market," with trading volumes consistently exceeding 2 trillion CNY [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Fangzheng Securities predicts a significant recovery in the internet brokerage sector, with net profits expected to accelerate by 70% in Q3 [2]. - The financial technology market is entering an upward trajectory due to policy support and the ongoing digital transformation of brokerages [2]. - The financial technology ETF (159851) has a scale exceeding 10 billion CNY, with an average daily trading volume of over 1.4 billion CNY in the past month, indicating strong liquidity [2].

Group 1 - The market capitalization of the two exchanges reached 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of 81.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The number of stocks that rose and fell in the market was 19,091, with 3,403 stocks rising and 115 stocks falling [2] - The top three industries with net capital inflow were public transportation, media, and environmental protection, with a total inflow of 3.36 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - Guotou Securities predicts that the market index will continue to maintain strength in September, indicating that the bull market has not ended [3] - The index has reached a level that aligns with the expectations for the current liquidity-driven bull market, with the market currently in a "bull tail" phase [3] - Future upward movement in the index is contingent upon the gradual realization of the "three bulls" (liquidity bull, fundamental bull, and transformation bull) over the next year [3] Group 3 - Huabao Fund has gathered the three major broad-based ETFs tracking the CSI A series, providing investors with diverse options to invest in China [5] - The A50 ETF tracks the CSI A50 Index, offering a straightforward investment approach for market participants [5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volume contraction and consolidation on September 19, with a focus on opportunities in the fintech sector as funds showed interest during declines [1] - The China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index fell over 1% during the day, with several constituent stocks declining, including Hengbao Co., which dropped over 5% [1] - Conversely, stocks like Electric Science Digital and Xin'an Century saw gains of over 2% [1] ETF Performance - The fintech ETF (159851), which has a scale exceeding 10 billion, saw a drop of over 1% during trading, with real-time transactions amounting to 500 million yuan, reflecting a slight decrease in volume [1] - Despite the drop, the fintech ETF received a net subscription of over 100 million units, accumulating nearly 900 million yuan in inflows over the previous three days [1] Investment Sentiment - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares, predicting potential upside of 8% and 3% respectively over the next 12 months, and recommends investors to buy on dips, focusing on themes like "Top Ten Private Enterprises in China," AI, and shareholder returns [2][3] - The current market conditions are favorable for an upward trend, supported by liquidity and fundamental factors, with expected earnings growth in major indices remaining in the mid-to-high single digits [3] Liquidity and Capital Flow - There is a net inflow of global capital into the A-share market, with household savings increasingly moving into capital markets, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [3] - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to enhance global liquidity, benefiting the A-share technology growth sector [3] Fintech Sector Dynamics - The fintech sector is highlighted as having significant elasticity and is expected to benefit from improved liquidity, with internet brokerage fundamentals anticipated to continue improving [4] - The sector is also experiencing a "technology innovation bull market," with AI, cross-border payments, and big data emerging as new growth points for fintech companies [5] - The fintech ETF (159851) has a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 1.4 billion yuan in the past month, indicating strong liquidity and market interest [5]

Market Performance - On September 18, both the stock and bond markets experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3831.66, down 1.15% [1][2] - The trading volume in the stock market reached 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 763.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a significant sell-off [2] Stock Market Analysis - The stock market showed a high open but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reaching 3899.96 points before facing strong selling pressure [2] - The decline in major indices, except for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, suggests a healthy adjustment rather than a shift to pessimism, as implied by the drop in implied volatility [2] - The technology sector attempted a rebound, with the Sci-Tech 50 index rising by 0.72%, indicating a preference for technology stocks amidst the broader market decline [3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market saw a rise in yields, particularly in the long-end, with the 10-year and 30-year government bonds reaching 1.78% and 2.07%, respectively [5][6] - The afternoon sell-off in equities provided a reason for the bond market to restart buying, although investor caution remained evident in pricing [6] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market experienced a general downturn, with significant declines in glass, coking coal, and pure alkali, which fell by 2.2%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, respectively [7] - Precious metals also faced selling pressure, with domestic silver and gold dropping by 1.94% and 1.78% [7][8] - The coking coal market showed signs of stabilization due to supply and demand dynamics, with production recovering and inventory levels decreasing [8] Livestock Sector Developments - The livestock sector is undergoing stricter production controls, with recent policies aimed at reducing the breeding sow population, which may improve the long-term supply dynamics [9] - Despite the potential for improved supply conditions, short-term pressures remain due to concentrated market releases [9] Investment Sentiment - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards risk aversion following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, leading to a phase of profit-taking in various sectors [9] - The focus is expected to shift from policy expectations to real-world validations, with industry logic likely to dominate future market movements [9]

作为行情旗手，金融科技成为市场博弈的主要阵地，分析来看，资金越跌越买或有两大重要驱动。 周四（9月18日），A股午后"变脸"突发放量跳水，大金融压盘引发市场关注。兼具"金融+科技"属性的 金融科技板块下挫逾3%，成份股大面积飘绿。其中，大智慧尾盘逼近跌停，收盘仍大跌8.83%，银之 杰、指南针同样跌超8%，财富趋势、同花顺、东方财富、金证股份等多股跌超4%。 热门ETF方面，同类规模超百亿、流动性断层第一的金融科技ETF（159851）午后跌幅扩大，场内收跌 3.4%失守两根均线，全天小幅缩量成交16.83亿元。资金继续布局金融科技板块，159851单日再获净申 购2.77亿份，此前两日已累计吸金超6亿元。 东吴证券认为，伴随政策发力、经济企稳、券商数字化转型需求持续加速，金融科技市场逐步进入上行 通道。中短期来看，资本市场的活跃度仍然是最大的支撑因素，看好政策的持续性及政策落地效果。长 期来看，宏观环境的稳中向好，以及资本市场改革深化将推动证券科技及券商IT行业ROE中枢稳步抬 升，板块长期投资价值逐渐凸显。 多角度把握金融科技机会，建议重点关注金融科技ETF（159851）及其联接基金（A类013477、 ...

以下文章来源于追风交易台 ，作者追风交易台 追风交易台 . 全球宏观研究、交易、配置，你不能错过 今年以来，中国股市高歌猛进，持续吸引着全球投资者的目光。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Kinger Lau、Si Fu等在最新发布的研报中指出， 一场由流动性驱动的牛市正在中国股市展开，"再通胀"预期和AI自主化发展 是推动此轮上涨的关键催化因素。 报告明确指出，与市场普遍认为此轮涨势由散户推动的看法不同，数据显示， 中国本土和海外的机构投资者一直是本轮反弹的关键资金提供方。 数据表明， 对冲基金、合格境外机构投资者（QFII）以及国内公募基金和保险公司等机构，均在此轮行情中积极增加了股票仓位。 在牛市的可持续性问题上，高盛认为，盈利改善有助于延长涨势，但并非进一步估值驱动上涨的"约束性条件"， 目前沪深300指数的预期市盈率仍低于历史牛 市的估值上限。 基于此轮行情由流动性主导的判断， 高盛重申对A股和H股的"增持"评级，并预测未来12个月二者分别有8%和3%的上涨空间。 流动性推动估值重估，中国股市"后来者居上" 高盛报告认为，由流动性推动、估值驱动的股市繁荣并非中国独有，而是一种全球现象。 再通胀预期与AI ...

每经记者｜肖芮冬 每经编辑｜赵云 9月18日，三大指数冲高快速回落。截至收盘，沪指跌1.15%，深成指跌1.06%，创业板指跌1.64%。 板块方面，旅游、CPO、芯片产业链等板块涨幅居前，多数板块下跌，有色金属、大金融、稀土永磁等板块 跌幅居前。 全市场超4600只个股下跌。沪深两市成交额3.135万亿元，较上一个交易日放量7584亿元，创年内第三。 今天，你傻眼了吗？ 早间沪指最高涨至3899.96点，创出近期新高，无限接近3900点关口。 但午后开盘，沪指持续回落，最低跌至3801点，几乎回吐上周四的涨幅。 午后，大金融方向跌幅扩大，也抑制了科技线的做多情绪，导致三大指数纷纷跳水翻绿，沪指跌至5日线下 方。 结合昨日中信证券、国泰海通等龙头券商尾盘出现巨额压单的情况（详情参阅），给人的感觉就像是—— 有资金在借助大金融板块"控盘"，即抑制指数上涨的节奏。 我们的小伙伴"道达号"昨日提到，从本轮行情来看，券商股还没有走出主升浪，扮演的是指数节奏调节器的 角色。 值得玩味的是，这一段上涨基本由沪市（含科创板）的科技股贡献；通常被认为"支撑"沪指的银行、红利甚 至证券板块，反而在"拖后腿"。 | 上证指数 1 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with "reflation" expectations and AI development as key catalysts [1][2] - Institutional investors, both domestic and foreign, are the main contributors to the current market rally, contrary to the belief that retail investors are driving the surge [1][8] - Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" rating on A-shares and H-shares, predicting an 8% and 3% upside respectively over the next 12 months [1] Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has surged 26% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 15% [2] - The market is witnessing a shift from bonds to stocks, with a 16 basis point rise in 10-year government bond yields since July 1 [2] - The normalization of profits for listed companies is expected to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit rate from 2025 to 2027, with onshore and offshore profits increasing by 3% and 6% respectively in the first half of the year [6] Institutional Participation - Domestic public funds have significantly increased their stock exposure, with cash ratios at a five-year low [8] - Domestic insurance companies have raised their stock holdings by 26% this year, while private fund management scales have grown from 5 trillion RMB to 5.9 trillion RMB [8] - Foreign investors have reached a cyclical high in their participation in Chinese stocks, particularly A-shares, with hedge fund inflows hitting a record high in August [8] Valuation and Sustainability - Goldman Sachs argues that while profit improvement can extend the bull market, it is not a necessary condition for further valuation-driven increases [9] - The current expected P/E ratios for MSCI China and the Shanghai Composite Index are 13.5 and 14.7, still below historical bull market valuation limits of 15-20 times [9] - The foundation for a "slow bull" market is stronger than ever, supported by market reforms and the introduction of long-term capital [12] Future Potential - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as household asset allocation heavily favors real estate and cash over stocks [15] - If institutional ownership in A-shares rises to the average levels of emerging and developed markets, it could lead to an influx of 14 trillion to 30 trillion RMB [15] - Goldman Sachs continues to favor structural themes such as AI and shareholder returns, maintaining an "overweight" stance on sectors like TMT, consumer services, insurance, and materials [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with "re-inflation" expectations and AI development as key catalysts for the recent surge [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 300 index has surged 26% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 15% [2] - The current expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for MSCI China and CSI 300 are 13.5x and 14.7x, respectively, still below historical bull market valuation limits of 15-20x [10] Group 2: Institutional Investors - Institutional investors, both domestic and foreign, have played a crucial role in the current market rally, with domestic public funds reducing cash ratios to a five-year low and insurance companies increasing stock holdings by 26% [9] - Foreign investment in A-shares has reached cyclical highs, with hedge funds recording the highest monthly inflow into A-shares in recent years [9] Group 3: Economic and Policy Factors - The market is driven by expectations of improved pricing environments and supply-side rationalization policies, leading to a re-inflation trade [2] - The report indicates that the current bull market is supported by fundamental factors, with normalized profit growth projected for listed companies between 2025-2027 [6] Group 4: Future Potential - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as household asset allocation heavily favors real estate and cash, with only 11% in stocks [13] - If institutional ownership in A-shares rises to levels seen in emerging or developed markets, it could lead to an influx of 14 trillion to 30 trillion yuan [13] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Risks - Current market sentiment indicates a short-term consolidation risk rather than an imminent reversal of the bull market trend, with the sentiment indicator reading at 1.3 [12] - The report emphasizes that historical reversals of bull markets are typically driven by policy shocks rather than high valuations [12] Group 6: Investment Strategy - The company maintains an "overweight" stance on the Chinese stock market, advocating for a buy-on-dips strategy, particularly in sectors like AI, consumer services, and technology [16]