东吴证券固收首席分析师李勇表示，财政存款通常呈现"季初增加、季末减少"的特征。预计1月财政存 款净增加约6200亿元，会扩大流动性缺口。"综合考虑财政存款、现金走款和银行缴准等因素后，2026 年1月的流动性缺口约为19000亿元。"李勇说。 信贷投放同样将对1月流动性形成扰动。财通证券（601108）首席经济学家孙彬彬认为，商业银行在 2026年初"早投放早收益"的诉求可能会抬升，与此同时，在微观中看到银行储备项目相较于往年更加提 前的信息，以及2025年12月票据利率月尾抬升的现象，因此判断1月信贷投放或有超季节性表现，带动 资金缺口有所增加。 综合运用政策工具 面对1月的流动性缺口，市场预期央行后续将加大政策工具运用力度，且操作有望更加积极，以维持资 金面稳定，预计资金利率波动将小于季节性。 中国人民银行1月8日发布公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了99亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利 率为1.4%。因当日无7天期逆回购到期、有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，叠加当日等量续做的 买断式逆回购，最终实现净投放99亿元。 "1月央行将综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF等货币政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 高息存款到期，关注负债压力边际变化 ——1 月流动性月报 一、12 月资金面回顾：投放积极，跨年平稳 资金面回顾：月初，资金面维持宽松，5 日央行开展 10000 亿 3M 买断式逆回 购，实现等额续作，资金扰动有限的情况下，隔夜资金价格边际下行，7 天资 金价格稳定在 1.45%附近；中旬，央行开展 6000 亿 6M 买断式回购，延续 11 月以来的"收短放长"操作，资金面整体平稳，隔夜资金在 1.28%左右保持稳 定，7D 资金窄幅波动维持在 1.45%附近；年末，偏松预期之下资金跨年进度 相对偏慢，叠加季节性因素 7D 资金价格略有波动，至月末攀升至 1.98%。 超储水平：流动性总量方面，12 月基础货币全月或增加 1.6 万亿，其中政府存 款对基础货币的补充或在 1 万亿附近，央行净投放合计 7528 亿元，外汇占款 延续小幅回笼 700 亿元；此外，准备金冻结 2000 亿元附近，取现对超储的消 耗或在 4000 亿附近，非金融机构存款变化对超储的消耗或在 1000 亿元附近。 故月末超储或增加 9000 亿左右，超储率或在 1.5%左右，处于季节性水平，扣 ...

今天，亚太市场中有两大市场表现乏力，其一是港股集体下跌，其二是日本股市全天走弱。并由此导致 了A50一度下跌近1%。受此影响，虚拟币市场亦有趋弱的势头。那么，究竟发生了什么？首先，有外 资机构下调阿里巴巴评级，给恒生科技股带来了一定的利空；其次，有色金属股（特别是贵金属）集体 杀跌，亦成为市场杀跌之助力；第三，经中信证券测算，1月由于政府债融资、M0季节性波动、缴准基 数扩大等原因，存在一定的流动性缺口。然而，更值得关注的是大量结汇对流动性的影响。（券商中 国） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent fluctuations in the equity markets, particularly focusing on the performance of the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets, and highlights three main variables affecting market sentiment, including Alibaba's rating downgrade, the decline in precious metals, and liquidity concerns [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific markets showed weakness, with Hong Kong stocks collectively declining and the Japanese market also underperforming, leading to a drop in the A50 index by nearly 1% [2]. - The Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.06% at 51,961.98 points, with significant declines in major stocks such as Nintendo (-4.65%) and Sony (-3.28%) [3]. - The Hang Seng Index fell significantly, losing over 355 points and dropping below 26,400 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by over 2% [3]. Group 2: Alibaba's Rating Downgrade - Freedom Capital Markets downgraded Alibaba's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," reducing the target price from $180 to $140 per share [4]. - This downgrade occurred despite Alibaba reporting quarterly earnings that exceeded expectations, with cloud services being a key growth driver [5]. - Concerns were raised regarding the rapid increase in capital expenditures related to the cloud business and the relatively moderate growth of its retail business compared to competitors [5]. Group 3: Precious Metals Decline - Precious metals prices fell as investors took profits, compounded by a strengthening dollar ahead of key employment data releases [5]. - The market sentiment for precious metals was pressured, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at least twice this year [5]. - The adjustment in the stock of Zijin Mining, which had previously surged, contributed to pressure on the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. Group 4: Liquidity Concerns - According to CITIC Securities, there is a liquidity gap due to seasonal fluctuations and increased government debt financing, which could tighten liquidity in the banking system [6]. - The central bank's actions, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities, will determine whether the liquidity situation will trend towards tightening [6]. - The ongoing foreign exchange settlement by commercial banks may consume excess reserves in the banking system, leading to structural liquidity pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent fluctuations in the equity markets, particularly focusing on the performance of the Hong Kong and Japanese markets, and highlights three main variables affecting market sentiment, including Alibaba's rating downgrade, the decline in precious metals, and liquidity concerns [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific markets showed weakness, with Hong Kong stocks collectively declining and the Japanese market also underperforming, leading to a nearly 1% drop in the A50 index [1][2]. - The Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.06% at 51,961.98 points, with significant declines in major stocks such as Nintendo (-4.65%) and Sony (-3.28%) [2]. - The Hang Seng Index fell significantly, losing over 355 points and dropping below 26,400 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a decline of over 2% [2]. Group 2: Alibaba's Rating Downgrade - Freedom Capital Markets downgraded Alibaba's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," reducing the target price from $180 to $140 per share, despite the company reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings [3]. - Concerns were raised regarding the rapid increase in capital expenditures related to Alibaba's cloud business, with uncertain return prospects [3]. - The company's ability to expand its retail and cloud businesses without significantly increasing costs will be a key factor influencing its performance in the coming quarters [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals experienced a decline as investors took profits, compounded by a strengthening dollar ahead of key employment data releases [3]. - The market sentiment for precious metals was pressured, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at least twice this year [3]. - The adjustment in the stock of Zijin Mining, which had previously surged, contributed to some pressure on the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. Group 4: Liquidity Concerns - According to CITIC Securities, there is a liquidity gap due to seasonal fluctuations in M0 and increased government debt financing, which could lead to structural tightening in the banking system [4]. - The central bank's actions, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), will determine whether the liquidity situation trends towards tightening [4]. - Continuous foreign exchange settlements by commercial banks may consume excess reserves in the banking system, impacting overall liquidity [4].

人民财讯1月7日电，中信证券指出，经测算，1月由于政府债融资、M0季节性波动、缴准基数扩大等原 因，存在一定的流动性缺口。然而，中信证券认为更值得关注的是大量结汇对流动性的影响。如果商业 银行持续结汇，但央行不购汇，资金面可能会面临摩擦，需要央行通过其他货币政策工具予以对冲。 转自：证券时报 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced measures to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, including a significant reverse repurchase operation of 1 trillion yuan scheduled for December 5, 2025 [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - PBOC will conduct a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, multi-price bidding reverse repo operation amounting to 1 trillion yuan with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - On the same day, PBOC also conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation amounting to 180.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% [4][5] Group 2: Market Interest Rates - Recent data indicates a decline in funding rates, with the overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) down by 0.1 basis points to 1.301%, and the 7-day Shibor down by 0.8 basis points to 1.426% [6] - The weighted average rate of DR007 decreased to 1.4409%, while the 1-day government bond reverse repo rate (GC001) fell to 1.407% [6] Group 3: Liquidity Assessment - According to a report from CITIC Securities, there is essentially no liquidity gap in December when excluding the factors of MLF and reverse repo maturities, indicating limited risk to the bond market [6] - However, it is noted that fiscal spending may be delayed, which could lead to disturbances at certain points in the middle of the month [6]

中信证券研报称，经测算，12月基本不存在流动性缺口，资金面对债市的风险有限。参考2021年以来 10Y国债收益率各月表现，年末债市利率整体趋于下行。随着今年11月债市调整，10年国债收益率回升 至1.75%~1.85%区间的偏上位置，交易机会也开始浮现。然而，中信证券认为年末行情的空间可能仍然 较为有限，建议结合债市边际变化灵活调整策略节奏。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Index indicates that liquidity pressure in November is expected to increase compared to October, with a liquidity gap around 2 trillion yuan, as many market institutions anticipate seasonal pressures due to the maturity of financial instruments [1][2][3]. Liquidity Conditions - In October, the central bank maintained a relatively proactive liquidity injection strategy, with a net injection of 4,000 billion yuan, the largest monthly value since March 2025 [2]. - The central bank's operations included a 1.1 trillion yuan front-loaded reverse repo to ease the liquidity pressure at the beginning of the month [2]. - The liquidity gap for November is projected to be around 2 trillion yuan, with some institutions suggesting it could exceed 3 trillion yuan [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank has restarted open market operations for government bonds, which many institutions believe could replace the need for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [1][7]. - The necessity for an RRR cut in the fourth quarter is perceived to be lower, with 17 out of 20 institutions indicating a reduced likelihood of such a move [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the resumption of government bond trading may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, allowing for continued liquidity support without aggressive monetary easing [8][9]. Market Reactions - The bond market is expected to experience renewed downward trends, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially approaching the low of 1.7% seen in August [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market indicates that while the central bank's easing measures may be less aggressive, the need for monetary policy support remains due to ongoing economic challenges [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is managing significant liquidity events this week, with nearly 20 trillion yuan in funds maturing, indicating a focus on maintaining stable liquidity in the market [1] Group 1: Market Operations - This week, the PBOC has 10,210 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing, with 6,120 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and 4,090 billion yuan on Friday [1] - Additionally, 1,500 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits will mature on Wednesday, and 8,000 billion yuan in 91-day reverse repos will mature on Tuesday [1] - Last week, the PBOC conducted 11,370 billion yuan in reverse repos and 11,000 billion yuan in 91-day reverse repos, with a total of 26,633 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,263 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - CITIC Securities commented that the liquidity gap in October may be weaker than seasonal trends, suggesting limited risks of liquidity tightening due to the PBOC's accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - The overall net financing of government bonds in October is expected to be around 600 billion yuan, as local government bond issuance plans and national bond issuance patterns indicate a reduction in supply pressure [1] - Excluding the impact of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos maturing, the estimated liquidity gap for October is approximately 500 billion yuan, although fiscal spending may cause disturbances later in the month [1]