世界卫生组织（WHO，下称"世卫"）近期发起一项新倡议，敦促各国通过征收健康税，到2035年将烟 草、酒精和含糖饮料的实际价格提高至少50%，此举旨在遏制慢性病并创造重要的公共收入。世卫认 为，这项"3by35"倡议（到2035年落实3项健康税）推出之际，全球各国正面临非传染性疾病增加、发展 援助缩减和公共债务攀升带来的巨大压力。 健康税(Health tax)是指对人群健康有负面影响的产品所征收的税。在前述世卫提出的三项健康税中，中 国已开征两项，即对烟草制品、电子烟和酒精征税。但实施近30年后，业界普遍认为，健康税在改变我 国国民消费行为和提升人群健康方面都尚未起到明显作用。 近日举行的第十三届北京洪堡论坛健康财政政策分论坛期间，多名与会国内外学者、政府官员认为，当 下正值中国新一轮财税体制改革的酝酿期。在消费税改革中，烟草和酒类消费税的税率仍需提升，且需 根据人群收入水平的提高不断进行调整，以保持政策对消费行为影响的有效性。与此同时，建议增加烟 酒制品消费税中的"从量税"比重，并适时考虑将含糖饮料纳入消费税税目中。 烟酒产品消费税仍有提升空间 "目前，全球中等收入国家的平均烟草价格为6.09国际元（国际 ...

阿达27日在接受当地播客节目采访时指出，巴西现行消费税水平过高，且体系复杂低效。"我们处在税 制的混乱之中。世界银行评估了190个税收体系，我们排在倒数前10位。引入增值税后，巴西的排名将 大幅提升。"消费税改革不仅有助于降低整体税收压力，还将推动经济运行的透明度和公平性，为巴西 经济的可持续发展奠定基础。 新华财经圣保罗9月28日电 巴西财政部长费尔南多·阿达日前重申，推进以增值税（IVA）为核心的消费 税改革是摆脱当前税制混乱的关键举措。 （文章来源：新华财经） "如果不从增值税入手，国家将永远无法降低税负。"阿达表示，"增值税能减轻投资和出口的负担，平 衡不同行业间的税负，终结各州之间的税收战争，减少逃税，扩大税基。只有这样，我们才能明确消费 与收入上的税率，从而实现更合理的财政平衡。" ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **consumption tax reform** in China, particularly in the context of the **14th Five-Year Plan** and its implications for economic structure and local government finance [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **14th Five-Year Plan** emphasizes the need to adjust and optimize the consumption tax system, including changes in tax rates and the shift of tax collection from production to retail [2][3]. - Historical reforms in consumption tax have focused on expanding the tax base, optimizing tax rates (mostly increasing them), and improving collection methods by moving from production to retail [5][6]. - The current consumption tax system targets products like tobacco, alcohol, automobiles, and oil, which were established as a supplement to the 1994 tax reform due to the ease of management and the high revenue needs not met by VAT [6][11]. - The potential shift of consumption tax to the retail level could lead to increased tax burdens on products like alcohol and automobiles, but careful assessment is needed to avoid negatively impacting consumer demand [11][12]. - Regions with high populations and consumption, such as Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, contribute significantly to consumption tax revenue, while provinces like Guizhou and Hubei have unique contributions due to local production [9][10]. Additional Important Content - The discussion highlights the importance of **indirect taxes** over direct taxes in the current economic climate, particularly in light of aging demographics and the need for sustainable social welfare systems [23][24]. - The **international comparison** shows that the consumption tax systems in the U.S. and Japan differ significantly from China's, with the U.S. relying heavily on property taxes and local consumption taxes, while Japan shares tax revenues between central and local governments [10][17]. - The challenges of implementing consumption tax reforms include balancing interests among various stakeholders and ensuring that local governments remain incentivized without over-relying on a single revenue source [12][25]. - The potential for expanding the consumption tax base to include all goods is currently not on the agenda, as it could lead to double taxation issues with the existing VAT system [22][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the consumption tax reform in China, its historical context, implications for local governance, and comparisons with international practices.

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, while demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to price adjustments [1] Supply and Demand - Supply has increased as some refineries in North China resume asphalt production - Demand has not exceeded expectations during the peak season due to rainfall and funding shortages - Inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and reduced pressure, while social inventories are being depleted [1] Price Movements - Asphalt prices have seen a decline of 10 to 100 CNY/ton in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest Sichuan-Chongqing, while prices in North China have increased by 10 CNY/ton [1] - The main refineries in the Yangtze River Delta have reduced transportation prices by 100 CNY/ton, and some brands in Shandong have lowered prices, leading to a drop in mainstream transaction prices [1] Cost Factors - OPEC's increase in production has led to a decrease in crude oil costs, which may influence asphalt pricing [1] - The current peak season has not shown extraordinary performance, but stabilization in crude oil prices may allow for bullish positioning in the future [1] Market Outlook - In the medium to long term, conditions for construction are expected to improve as autumn approaches, despite the anticipated rainfall in the short term - The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns over potential U.S. military actions against Venezuela [1] - The valuation of asphalt is currently high compared to crude oil, with a weakening trend in the crack spread [1]

Core Insights - The importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan": The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to significantly impact China's economic and social development over the next five years, shifting focus from production to a balance between production and consumption due to the current issue of insufficient effective demand [1] - Strengthening consumption policies: Starting in 2024, consumption policies will be significantly enhanced, including the allocation of special government bond funds to support consumption upgrades. Continued funding is expected in 2025 and 2026 [1] - Potential of service consumption: China's service consumption still lags behind developed economies, indicating a substantial opportunity for growth in this sector to stimulate consumer interest and optimize the consumption environment [1] - Rise of technology consumption: With a rapid technological development and an engineering talent surplus, products like robotic vacuum cleaners and drones are gaining market attention, likely creating new consumer demand [1] - Optimization of the overall consumption mechanism: Measures such as consumption tax reform will encourage local governments to transition from production-oriented to service-oriented, promoting the internationalization of quality consumption companies and enhancing residents' consumption capacity [1] Investment Recommendations - Food and Beverage: Recommended companies include Dongpeng Beverage and Lihigh Food, with a focus on Youran Dairy and Bairun Co [2] - Service Sector: Recommended companies include Guming, Mixue Group, and Bubugao, with a focus on Zhongsheng Holdings [2] - Light Industry: Companies to watch include Hengfeng Paper and Xilinmen [3] - Trendy Toys: Recommended companies include Pop Mart and Blokus [4] - Home Appliances: Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Electronics H, Roborock, and Ecovacs, with a focus on Yingshi Innovation [5] - Agriculture: Recommended companies include Zhongchong Co, Petty Co, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group [11] - Textile and Apparel: Recommended companies include Anta Sports, Xtep International, 361 Degrees, and Hailan Home, with a focus on Li Ning and Sanfu Outdoor [11] Report Content Analysis - Expanding consumption share: The report emphasizes that expanding consumption share is essential for achieving Chinese-style modernization, as China's consumption rate is significantly lower than that of developed countries [9] - Shift in fiscal spending: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, fiscal spending will shift from material investments to human capital investments, increasing support for education, healthcare, and housing [9] - Promotion of common prosperity: The report highlights the need for income distribution reform and the promotion of the Zhejiang common prosperity model to achieve balanced development [9] - Consumption tax reform: The report suggests that consumption tax reform will help local governments transition from production-oriented to service-oriented, enhancing the consumption environment [9] - Transition from traditional to new consumption: The report analyzes the maturation of traditional consumption markets and the rise of new consumption, which is characterized by a focus on quality and personal satisfaction [9] - Stimulating interest in service consumption: The report indicates that the shift from physical to service consumption is crucial for expanding domestic demand, with growing demand for events and performances benefiting local consumption [9]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing a seasonal peak that has not exceeded expectations, with short-term fluctuations following cost changes [1] Supply and Demand - Overall asphalt supply remains stable, but demand is hindered by rainfall and funding shortages, leading to ineffective release [1] - Factory inventory pressure is low, while social inventory depletion is slow, with some speculative demand driving inventory transfers [1] Price Dynamics - The basis in Shandong has weakened, while the crack spread remains high [1] - In the coming week, increased rainfall in the southern regions is expected to weaken the fundamentals on a month-on-month basis, highlighting the lack of robust seasonal demand [1] Cost Factors - OPEC's continued production increase has alleviated tight supply expectations for asphalt costs [1] - In the medium to long term, improved construction conditions are anticipated as autumn approaches, although intermittent rainfall is still expected [1] Regional Insights - Recent trials for consumption tax reform in Shandong have not expanded, and due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions, South China remains a price lowland [1] Market Sentiment - Currently, the asphalt peak season is not performing beyond expectations, with short-term movements closely tied to cost fluctuations [1] - Positive factors include low factory inventory pressure, seasonal demand, low construction activity with expectations for catch-up work in the south, and strong expectations for capacity reduction [1] - Negative factors include increased arrivals of Marwan crude oil, short-term demand drag from the southern rainy season, slow social inventory depletion, and a weakening basis [1]

Group 1: Subsidy Analysis - Land subsidies for the industrial sector in 70 cities averaged 1.45 trillion annually from 2017 to 2024, accounting for approximately 1.3% of national GDP[1] - In 2023, tax incentives for the manufacturing sector's corporate income tax were about 730 billion, representing 0.56% of GDP[1] - The average industrial land price in 2024 was 497 yuan per square meter, significantly lower than residential land prices, creating a price gap that benefits industrial sectors[1] Group 2: Tax Burden Disparities - In 2023, the lowest tax burdens were in Guangxi (8.5%), Fujian (8.6%), and Hunan (8.7%), while the highest were in Beijing (34.5%) and Shanghai (33.4%)[1] - The tax burden in the eastern region was 16.4%, higher than the central (10.7%), western (12.4%), and northeastern (12.7%) regions[1] - The manufacturing sector's tax burden was 16.8%, with high burdens in finance, real estate, and heavy industries[1] Group 3: Industry and Regional Insights - In 2023, the automotive manufacturing sector in Hebei had a profit margin of 1.9% and a tax burden of 2.7%, indicating potential internal competition issues[1] - The electrical machinery sector in Shaanxi had a profit margin of 2.3% and a tax burden of 1.8%, suggesting similar competitive pressures[1] - The electronic equipment sector in Anhui reported a profit margin of -0.6% and a tax burden of 1.1%, highlighting challenges in profitability[1] Group 4: Transition in Government Behavior - Local governments are shifting from "race to the bottom" competition, characterized by lowering costs, to "race to the top," focusing on improving the business environment and innovation[1] - This transition is driven by pressures from the real estate market, changes in industrial policy, and tax reforms aimed at optimizing consumption environments[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a primary task for expanding domestic demand, highlighting the need for reform in the current tax system to incentivize local governments to promote consumption effectively [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Challenges - Local governments face significant financial constraints due to accumulated debt and a downturn in the real estate market, which hampers their enthusiasm for promoting consumption [3][4]. - The existing value-added tax (VAT) and consumption tax systems primarily based on the production location create a misalignment between tax revenue and consumption potential, limiting the release of consumption capacity [2][7]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Structure - In 2024, China's total tax revenue is projected to be 17.5 trillion yuan, with VAT contributing 6.67 trillion yuan (38%) and consumption tax contributing 1.65 trillion yuan (9%) [4]. - VAT is the largest contributor to local tax revenue, shared equally between central and local governments, while the consumption tax is expected to become a new source of incremental revenue for local governments as reforms progress [4][5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Reform - The article suggests reforming the VAT distribution mechanism to focus more on the consumption location, enhancing the precision of transfer payments to local governments [5][12]. - It advocates for accelerating the shift of consumption tax collection to the retail stage, promoting the development of emerging consumption sectors such as green, smart, and health-related industries [5][12]. Group 4: International Experience - The article draws lessons from international practices, particularly the EU's shift from a production-based to a consumption-based VAT system, which was driven by the need for a unified market and the evolution of cross-border trade [10][11]. - The U.S. sales tax system, which relies on state-level taxation and does not have a unified VAT, provides insights into how differentiated tax rates can guide consumer behavior and link tax revenues to public services [13][14]. Group 5: Enhancing Local Government Incentives - To improve local government incentives for promoting consumption, the article recommends optimizing the VAT distribution mechanism to ensure more accurate compensation for consumption areas [16][17]. - It also suggests adjusting consumption tax rates to encourage healthy and environmentally friendly consumption, while considering transitional measures to balance local interests during the reform process [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a key strategy for expanding domestic demand, highlighting its priority in the government's work report for the year [2]. Group 1: Challenges in Boosting Consumption - Increasing investment is more controllable for local economies, while boosting consumption requires market cooperation, especially when consumer spending is weak [3]. - Local governments face significant financial constraints due to accumulated debt and a downturn in the real estate market, which affects the implementation of consumption-boosting policies [3]. - The current fiscal and tax system may hinder the potential for consumption growth, necessitating reforms to create a positive incentive mechanism for local governments [5][6]. Group 2: Tax Structure and Consumption Potential - The main tax sources in China include value-added tax (VAT), corporate income tax, consumption tax, and personal income tax, with VAT contributing the most to local revenue [3]. - In 2024, China's total tax revenue is projected to be 17.5 trillion yuan, with VAT at 6.67 trillion yuan (38% of total revenue) and consumption tax at 1.65 trillion yuan (9% of total revenue) [3]. - The current VAT distribution mechanism, based on the production location, is becoming increasingly inadequate as consumption becomes the main growth driver [6][7]. Group 3: International Experience and Recommendations - The article suggests learning from international experiences, such as the EU's shift from production-based to consumption-based VAT distribution, to optimize China's VAT system [10][12]. - Recommendations include improving the precision of transfer payments to consumption areas and accelerating the shift of consumption tax collection to promote new consumption sectors [4][12]. - The U.S. sales tax system offers insights into using differentiated tax rates to guide consumer behavior and linking consumption taxes to public services [13][15]. Group 4: Proposed Reforms - Optimizing the VAT distribution mechanism should focus on more precise compensation for consumption areas, potentially trialing a combined production and consumption-based distribution rule [16]. - The consumption tax structure should be optimized to encourage healthy and green consumption, with differentiated rates for various products [17]. - Enhancing the linkage and integration of tax types can help streamline tax collection and reduce the burden on consumers, promoting overall consumption growth [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the findings of the "July 2025 China Car Retention Rate Research Report," highlighting the importance of retention rates in assessing brand strength and guiding various automotive business strategies [2][4]. Policy Direction - The recent consumption tax reform targets ultra-luxury vehicles, expanding the tax range to include cars priced over 900,000 yuan, which is a significant reduction from previous thresholds. This reform aims to improve fiscal revenue and stimulate domestic demand [5][6]. Market Trends - The automotive market has seen a price war in the first half of the year, prompting government and industry responses to curb chaotic competition. Although price wars have lessened, a stable market norm has yet to be established [9]. Supply and Demand - There has been a slight decrease in car supply, indicating reduced new car replacements. The second-hand car market benefits from car loans, with a reported loan balance of 78.381 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.06% [12]. Valuation Insights - In the second-hand market dominated by fuel vehicles, new car prices significantly influence second-hand prices. Notably, small sedans and mid-to-large SUVs have shown strong performance in retention rates due to limited new car supply [16]. New Energy Vehicle Developments - The construction of high-power charging facilities is gaining support, addressing previous compatibility issues with the power grid. This shift towards organized development is expected to enhance the promotion of new energy vehicles and charging infrastructure [19]. Market Activity - New car replacement transactions are crucial for stimulating the second-hand market. However, with a slight increase in new car prices and the suspension of subsidies, replacement transactions have not seen sustained growth. The second-hand market remains stable, with plug-in hybrid models facing consumer hesitation [22][23].