2025 年 08 月 24 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨仁文 S0350521120001 | | | yangrw@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 方博云 S0350521120002 | | | fangby@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 吴倩 S0350525070006 | | | wuq05@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 线上和海外高速增长，毛绒成最大品类 ——泡泡玛特（9992.HK）2025H1 业绩点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | 2025/08/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 泡泡玛特 | 27.9% | 44.1% | 570.9% | | 恒生指数 | 0.8% | 7.6% | 43.6% | | 市场数据 | 2025/08/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（港元） | 320.40 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | 4 ...

Core Insights - The rise of trendy toys (潮玩) reflects a shift in consumer culture, evolving from niche collectibles to mainstream appeal, attracting a diverse audience across age groups [1][2] - The success of trendy toys is driven by innovative marketing strategies, including social media influence and the "surprise economy" created by blind box purchases [3][5] - The industry is experiencing significant growth, with companies focusing on IP development and creating engaging narratives to enhance consumer connection [5][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Trendy toys have transitioned from being popular among niche collectors to becoming a mainstream phenomenon, appealing to all demographics [1] - The character 拉布布 has gained immense popularity, becoming a cultural icon and even receiving a diplomatic title, showcasing the power of branding and celebrity endorsements [3] - The demand for creative and personalized products is increasing as consumers seek more than traditional toys, leading to a rise in the trendy toy market [2] Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The "surprise economy" through blind boxes enhances consumer excitement and encourages repeat purchases, as seen with 拉布布's popularity [3][5] - Social media plays a crucial role in promoting trendy toys, with unboxing videos and creative showcases driving interest and engagement among potential buyers [3] - The emotional connection consumers feel towards characters like NOOK highlights the importance of relatable storytelling in product design [2] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The secondary market for trendy toys is thriving, but issues such as scalping and counterfeit products threaten market integrity and consumer trust [6][7] - The rise of counterfeit products poses risks to brand reputation and consumer confidence, as buyers may unknowingly purchase fakes [7] - The industry must navigate challenges related to market fairness and product authenticity to sustain growth and consumer satisfaction [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The trendy toy industry is expected to continue growing, with companies encouraged to invest in IP exploration and product innovation [5][6] - The shift from "Made in China" to "Created in China" signifies a broader cultural and economic evolution, positioning Chinese brands on the global stage [6] - The next decade presents both challenges and opportunities for the trendy toy industry, with a focus on developing unique paths for growth and consumer engagement [7]

Core Insights - The LABUBU phenomenon has become a significant cultural symbol, contributing to Pop Mart's market capitalization exceeding HKD 300 billion, marking a new high since its IPO [1] - The Pop Mart City Park in Beijing has seen a surge in popularity, especially during the summer, attracting a diverse range of visitors [1] - The park features various interactive activities, including a stamp collection game, which has become a popular attraction among visitors [1] Group 1 - The park's merchandise offerings are diverse, with LABUBU-themed products being particularly popular among visitors [1] - The IP-themed dining options within the park, such as LABUBU-shaped waffles and creative ice creams, have also become a consumer hotspot [2] - The Pop Mart City Park, opened in September 2023, covers approximately 40,000 square meters, making it a lightweight urban theme park compared to larger competitors [2] Group 2 - The park is undergoing redesign and renovation, with two-thirds of the area being upgraded, yet visitor enthusiasm remains high [2] - Ticket prices have been adjusted, with weekday tickets reduced from 150 yuan to 88 yuan, and peak day tickets from 180 yuan to 118 yuan, which has been perceived as good value by visitors [2] - Pop Mart aims to continuously introduce new IP scenes and interactive projects, enhancing the emotional connection between fans and IPs while exploring broader development opportunities in the industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Beijing International Trendy Toy Expo (PTS) serves as a global platform for IP enthusiasts, featuring renowned international IP giants and attracting hundreds of global designers, promoting cultural exchange and interaction within the trendy toy industry [1][3]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The theme of this year's PTS is "Return of Playfulness, Seeking the Wilderness of the Heart," showcasing major IPs from Disney, Universal, Bandai, and others [1]. - Bubble Mart's well-known IPs, including LABUBU, MOLLY, and Xingxingren, were prominently featured, with numerous artists present for signings [3]. - The event aims to enhance fan engagement through upgraded interactive experiences, allowing deeper immersion into the IP world [3]. Group 2: International Participation - Attendees from various countries, such as Russia, expressed excitement about the event, highlighting the global appeal of specific IPs like Hirono [5]. - The presence of international designers and fans indicates a growing interest in trendy toys and IP culture beyond China [5]. Group 3: Market Expansion - Chinese original IPs are accelerating their international presence, with significant success noted for IPs like Labubu in the European market [7]. - The collaboration between Bubble Mart and the Beijing Cultural and Tourism Bureau aims to leverage cultural resources to enhance cultural innovation and economic benefits [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and cultural significance of Pop Mart, particularly its flagship product, the Labubu toy, highlighting its transformation into a global IP and the company's strategic approach to marketing and international expansion [1][4][13]. Group 1: Company Overview - Pop Mart has pioneered the trendy toy category in China, previously known as designer toys, and has significantly influenced the industry by promoting toy culture through events like the Beijing International Toy Expo [3]. - The company reported over 3 billion yuan in sales for Labubu last year, indicating its successful penetration into the global market [4]. Group 2: Cultural Impact and Marketing Strategy - Pop Mart aims to transition from merely selling products to selling culture, emphasizing the importance of high-value products that reflect Chinese culture on a global scale [5]. - The company utilizes a blind box marketing strategy, which has become its unique language, contributing to its brand identity and consumer engagement [7]. Group 3: International Expansion - In 2024, Pop Mart's overseas revenue is projected to reach 5.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 375.2%, indicating a strong international growth trajectory [8]. - The company plans to replicate its success in international markets, leveraging China's manufacturing capabilities and market size to support global artists in developing IP [9]. Group 4: Future Vision and Challenges - Pop Mart aspires to become a long-lasting enterprise, akin to a tree with deep roots, emphasizing the importance of cultural integration and local operations in its international strategy [12]. - The company acknowledges the challenges of entering foreign markets, including cultural and regulatory adaptations, and emphasizes a gradual, focused approach to expansion [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992.HK) [5][11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of no less than 200% and a profit growth of no less than 350% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [5][6] - The significant revenue increase is attributed to the expansion of IP and product offerings, as well as a rise in overseas revenue [6][10] - The net profit margin is projected to improve to approximately 33% in the first half of 2025, up from 20% in the first half of 2024 [6][10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 252.60 - Total market capitalization: HKD 3,392.27 billion - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be HKD 4.99 [4][11] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 45.58 billion and a profit of HKD 9.64 billion [6] - The projected revenue for the first half of 2025 is at least HKD 137.64 billion, with a profit of at least HKD 44.89 billion [6] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on international expansion, particularly in the US and European markets, with plans to open 100 stores overseas by 2025 [10] - The introduction of new product lines, including accessories and building blocks, is part of the strategy to enhance the comprehensive platform [9][10] Future Outlook - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 105%, 49%, and 38% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 114%, 58%, and 46% for the same years [11] - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue share to over 50% by 2025 [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][12] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in H1 2025, with revenue projected to increase by no less than 200% year-on-year, reaching at least 13.673 billion RMB, and profit expected to grow by no less than 350%, reaching at least 4.489 billion RMB [5][8] - The company's global IP recognition and diverse product categories are driving revenue growth across various cities, with overseas revenue contributing significantly to profit margins [8][11] - The expansion of overseas stores and the successful performance of products on platforms like TikTok are enhancing the company's market presence and profitability [8][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of July 16, 2025, the company's stock price is 252.60 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 339.23 billion HKD [4][12] - The company has shown a remarkable 572.8% increase in stock performance over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 30.797 billion RMB, 41.415 billion RMB, and 49.772 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.405 billion RMB, 12.848 billion RMB, and 15.514 billion RMB [10][12] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 10.037 billion RMB, 13.611 billion RMB, and 16.438 billion RMB for the same years [10][12] Product and Market Expansion - The company has accelerated the launch of new products, with 47 new blind box products and 26 MEGA products introduced in H1 2025, reflecting a strong market response [11] - The company is also focusing on expanding its product categories, including potential entry into the small home appliance sector [11]

Group 1 - The LABUBU doll, characterized by its unique design, has gained global popularity, leading to a buying frenzy and endorsements from numerous celebrities [2][3] - The success of LABUBU has highlighted the growing influence of Chinese trendy toys on modern global consumer culture, with significant media coverage noting its impact [2][4] - Bubble Mart, the manufacturer of LABUBU, has temporarily halted sales of the product in South Korea and the UK due to safety concerns, indicating challenges in managing its rapid growth [2][3] Group 2 - The global performance of LABUBU has exceeded expectations, with significant resonance among international consumers, as noted by Bubble Mart's Americas head [3] - Other Chinese trendy toy brands, such as 52TOYS and TOP TOY, are also expanding their international presence, indicating a broader trend of Chinese brands entering global markets [3] - The rise of Chinese trendy toys reflects a shift in perception of "Made in China," moving away from low-cost manufacturing to a focus on unique storytelling and aesthetics [4][5] Group 3 - The emotional value of trendy toys resonates particularly with Gen Z and millennials, who appreciate the imaginative aspects of these products despite their lack of traditional utility [5] - The success of LABUBU demonstrates that Chinese brands can win over global consumers by tapping into universal emotional connections without overtly emphasizing their Chinese origins [5] - The increasing visibility of Chinese cultural products, including trendy toys, is reshaping international perceptions and fostering a deeper understanding of China [6]

Core Insights - The stock price of Pop Mart has increased by 100% since March this year, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][11] - LABUBU is actively engaging in commercial operations, expanding beyond traditional toy boundaries through diverse scenarios and cross-industry collaborations [1][10] - The emergence of counterfeit LABUBU products has been noted, but relevant authorities are taking action against these infringements [1][11][12] Group 1: LABUBU's Marketing Strategies - The "THE MONSTERS怪味便利店" pop-up store in Shanghai has seen overwhelming demand, with reservations selling out within seconds [2][4] - The store operates with strict entry limits, allowing only a small number of customers at a time to prevent overcrowding and enhance the shopping experience [5][6] - The limited availability of products has led to a "hunger marketing" effect, increasing consumer desire and willingness to pay higher prices for LABUBU items [6][8] Group 2: Collaborations and Product Expansion - Uniqlo is set to launch a new collaboration with Pop Mart's popular IP "THE MONSTERS," marking their fifth partnership and aiming to attract younger consumers [9][10] - The collaboration includes a range of products, with adult t-shirts priced at 99 yuan and children's versions at 79 yuan, showcasing the brand's strategy to diversify its offerings [9] - This partnership not only enhances Pop Mart's product categories but also helps Uniqlo maintain its relevance among younger demographics [10] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Impact - Pop Mart's revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to increase by 165% to 170%, with domestic revenue growing by 95% to 100% and overseas revenue soaring by 475% to 480% [11] - The significant rise in stock price and revenue reflects the successful market positioning and consumer demand for LABUBU products [11] - The popularity of LABUBU has also created opportunities in international markets, such as Malaysia, where products are available without excessive markups [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable journey of Pop Mart and its founder Wang Ning, emphasizing the importance of patience, adaptability, and a keen business sense in achieving success in the toy industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Growth and Achievements - As of June 12, 2023, Wang Ning's family wealth reached $22.4 billion (approximately 160 billion RMB), making them the richest family in Henan province and one of the top wealth gainers globally [1]. - In 2024, Pop Mart's revenue surpassed 10 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 100%, and the total number of stores exceeded 500, including over 100 international locations [2][3]. - Pop Mart has successfully developed four major IPs—MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and LABUBU—creating a global trend in collectible toys and expanding into various entertainment sectors [2][3][14]. Group 2: Entrepreneurial Journey of Wang Ning - Wang Ning's entrepreneurial journey began in 2010 with a small retail store, which evolved into a significant player in the toy industry through a series of strategic decisions and adaptations to market demands [6][8][10]. - His background in small family businesses and early entrepreneurial experiences shaped his business intuition and approach to risk management [7][8]. - Wang Ning emphasizes the importance of learning from failures and adapting quickly to market feedback, which has been a cornerstone of Pop Mart's strategy [8][10][12]. Group 3: Business Philosophy and Strategy - The company operates on the principle of "doing decisions quickly, but doing things slowly," allowing for thorough execution and long-term planning [22]. - Wang Ning believes that the essence of entrepreneurship lies in managing details and optimizing operations, which he refers to as "the invisible fighting power" of the company [16][18][19]. - Pop Mart's approach to IP development is likened to nurturing artists, requiring time and patience to cultivate successful brands, rather than rushing to market [20][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - By 2025, Pop Mart aims to solidify its position as a leading global cultural entertainment company, with plans to expand into theme parks, games, and films [14][22]. - The company is focused on building a sustainable business model that respects time and operational integrity, which Wang Ning believes is crucial for long-term success [23][24].