| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 2026年1月13日 | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | 现值 | 品种 | 即日 | 张跃 | 其方 | 单位 | | 3310 | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3290 | 20 | 177 | | | 3200 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 0 | 67 | | | 3290 | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 10 | 157 | | | 3165 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3168 | -3 | 145 | | | 3211 | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3213 | -2 | ਰੇਰੇ | | | 3133 | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3127 | 6 | 177 | | | 3280 | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 10 | -20 | 元/吨 | | 3190 | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 0 | -110 | | | 3290 | 热 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月12日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前自 | 张跃 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3290 | 3320 | -30 | 201 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 191 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3144 | 3187 | -43 | 146 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3196 | 3235 | -39 | 94 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3086 | 3130 | -41 | 201 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3290 | -20 | 15 | 元/中 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | -62 | | | ...

Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 84.21% (-2.41%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 73.76 tons (-1.79). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 36.32% (-1.36%), and the daily output of clean coal was 26.59 tons (-0.7). At the end of the year, the import of Mongolian coal increased significantly, and the overall supply pressure remained [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.96 days (-0.06), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.49 days (+0.06). Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 282.9 tons (+10.13), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1039.72 tons (+3.43), the steel mill inventory was 806.72 tons (+1.73), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 329 tons (+1.72), and the inventory of major ports was 299.5 tons (+13.33). Procurement sentiment weakened [3]. - Summary: Last week, the supply of the coking coal market declined slightly and remained at a low level, and the procurement sentiment in the off - season of demand was weak. The import pressure of Mongolian coal will decrease in the new year, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. With the increasing expectation of winter storage replenishment, the market will remain volatile [3]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 18 yuan/ton (-34), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 71.66% (-0.39%), the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 62.67 tons (-0.33), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.9 tons (+0.31). The overall supply changed little [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.01 days (+0.29). The rigid demand for coke weakened [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 92.24 tons (+1.14), the inventory of major ports was 178.2 tons (+2.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.2 tons (+8.47). The overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. - Summary: The supply of coke changed little. The demand structure was weak, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts for coke spot. However, with the increasing expectation of steel mill resumption in January and the support of winter storage replenishment, the futures market is expected to remain volatile at a low level [4]. Macro Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate cumulative year - on - year, weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, steel industry PMI, and manufacturing PMI, but no in - depth analysis is provided [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coking coal procurement prices, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, production, operating rate, inventory, and Mongolian coal customs clearance in relevant regions, but no in - depth analysis is provided [21][26][31] Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coke ex - factory prices, price adjustment schedules, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, profit, production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and inventory available days, but no in - depth analysis is provided [61][63][69]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, showing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not clearly given in the provided content Core Views - The steel market has weak market sentiment, but there is cost support below, and the overall market continues the range - bound pattern. The iron ore market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a range - bound state after the price corrects the discount. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to try long positions at low prices [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined and then rebounded today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased this week, while production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and the de - stocking accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron has stabilized. The overall domestic demand in the downstream industry is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The market sentiment is still weak, and the market continues the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was strongly range - bound today. The global shipment is strong, and it is expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory has continued to increase significantly. The terminal demand in the off - season is at a low level, but molten iron has stabilized at a low level this week. The steel mill inventory is at a low level, and there is a certain restocking expectation. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the short - term market trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Coke - The coke price was range - bound during the day. There is still an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, which is expected to be implemented after New Year's Day. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price was mainly range - bound during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price was strongly range - bound during the day. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. There is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory. The demand for iron and steel has decreased seasonally. The weekly production and inventory of silicomanganese have slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price was strongly range - bound during the day. There is an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and there is an expectation of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The demand for iron and steel has rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand has decreased, but the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Steel Industry**: Steel prices continue the low - level rebound trend. The basis of rebar is slightly stronger, while that of hot - rolled coil is weaker. Coke and coking coal prices may affect steel price stability. Steel mills are reducing production and inventory, but the inventory of plates is rising year - on - year. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the steel export licensing system on export expectations. When the hot metal production drops to a low level, one can participate in the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio of the January and May contracts [2] - **Iron Ore Industry**: The iron ore futures rebounded in a volatile manner. The global shipment volume of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded. Steel mills continued to cut production, hot metal production decreased, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The iron ore port inventory increased, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore decreased. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract of iron ore at low prices and conduct a positive spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of iron ore [5] - **Coke Industry**: Coke futures rebounded after over - falling. The second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 12th, and there is still an expectation of further cuts in the short term. The supply side shows that the price reduction range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, and coking profits have been slightly repaired. The demand side indicates that steel mills are increasing maintenance due to losses, and the hot metal production has declined. The inventory of coke has increased in coking plants, ports, and steel mills, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, bet on short - term rebound expectations, or conduct a reverse spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coke [6] - **Coking Coal Industry**: Coking coal futures rebounded after over - falling. The spot price in Shanxi continued to fall, and the Mongolian coal price decreased. The supply side shows that coal mine shipments have worsened, daily production has slightly declined, and coal mines are accumulating inventory again. The demand side indicates that steel mills are increasing maintenance due to losses, and the demand for replenishment is weak. The inventory has increased in steel mills, coal mines, washing plants, ports, coking enterprises, and ports. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, bet on short - term rebound expectations, or conduct a reverse spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coking coal [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different trends, with some prices increasing and some remaining stable. The profit of steel products showed a downward trend, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly [2] - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal production, the output of five major steel products, rebar production, and hot - rolled coil production all decreased. The output of electric - arc furnace rebar and converter rebar also declined [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased [2] - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials increased, but the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil decreased [2] Iron Ore Industry - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [5] - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume and the 45 - port arrival volume of iron ore increased, but the monthly national import volume decreased [5] - **Demand**: The weekly daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume, the monthly national pig iron production, and the monthly national crude steel production all decreased [5] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased [5] Coke Industry - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties remained stable, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The coking profit decreased [6] - **Supply**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased, while that of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6] - **Demand**: The weekly hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased slightly [6] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased [6] Coking Coal Industry - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties remained stable, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The profit of sample coal mines decreased [6] - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal production and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly [6] - **Demand**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased, while that of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 10, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and various industry information providers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View As of the close on December 10, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver and container shipping to Europe had significant increases, while others such as alumina and soda ash declined. The performance of each commodity was affected by factors including supply - demand relationships, production conditions, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic expectations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - Gainers: Shanghai silver rose over 5%, container shipping to Europe rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, iron ore, soybeans, polysilicon, and soybeans No. 2 rose nearly 2% [6] - Losers: Alumina fell over 3%, soda ash, glass, industrial silicon, and styrene fell over 2%, log, pure benzene, PVC, palm oil, coking coal, SC crude oil, staple fiber, polypropylene, and propylene fell over 1% [7] - Stock Index Futures: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.15%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.35%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.39%, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.26% [7] - Bond Futures: 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.06%, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.06%, 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract rose 0.30% [7] 3.2 Market Analysis by Commodity 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Market Trend: Opened low and moved lower, with weak intraday fluctuations - Production: In November, the production rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower than the previous month and the same period last year. In December, 4 smelters are expected to have maintenance, and production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, and the production of copper plate and strip and copper rod is affected by cost and order issues [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: Opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% intraday - Production: In November, production continued to grow, and in December, it is expected to increase by about 3%. The capacity utilization rate this week is 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year [10][11] - Demand: Downstream production continues to grow but at a slower pace, and the impact of energy storage demand needs further verification [11] - Inventory: In November, the inventory decreased slightly after 5 consecutive months of decline [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US production is at a high level, and global floating storage is increasing. Some oil fields have resumed production [12] - Demand: The peak demand season is over, and US refined product inventories have increased more than expected [12] - Geopolitics: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and the US - Venezuela military confrontation has intensified [12] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9%. In December, the planned output is 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year [15] - Demand: Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and overall demand is average [15] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate rose 0.10 percentage points to 53.93%. The enterprise operating rate is about 84%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire has decreased. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have decreased slightly [16][17] - Demand: Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, orders have decreased, and the market lacks large - scale purchases [16][17] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The operating rate is about 90%. New capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has decreased, and the peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end. Orders have continued to decline, and downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [18] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The operating rate has decreased slightly to 79.89%, and new capacity has been put into operation. Social inventories are still high [19][20] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage [20] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Market Trend: Opened high and moved high but fell more than 1% intraday - Supply: Near the end of the year, imported coal has increased, and the production rate of coal mines has decreased slightly. Some factories may reduce production after completing their annual tasks [21] - Demand: Iron water production has decreased, and coking and steel mills are in the off - season. The demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline [21] - Inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased, while the inventory of mines has increased significantly [21] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but short - term demand may increase due to restocking [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Market Trend: Opened high and moved low, then strengthened intraday - Supply: Upstream devices have both shutdowns and restarts, and the daily production has not decreased significantly [23] - Demand: Downstream winter storage and export orders are stable. The new orders of compound fertilizer factories are not good, and the operating rate is approaching the high - point of the same period in recent years [23] - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline, and the current supply - demand logic is relatively balanced [23] - Price Outlook: Short - term strength, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Not rated [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is in a low-level range oscillation. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, the cost side of coal and coke continues to decline, and the upward momentum of the disk is insufficient, but there is still support below [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate with a marginal loosening of fundamentals due to strong global shipments, weak steel demand in the off-season, and a deteriorating profitability of steel mills [3]. - The coke price may oscillate weakly with a general coking profit, a slight decrease in daily production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [4]. - The coking coal price may oscillate weakly with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slight increase in production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [5]. - The silicon manganese price has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation due to an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slow increase in inventory, and a small increase in manganese ore inventory [6]. - The silicon iron price may have a loosening bottom support with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a continuous decline in inventory, and an overall resilient demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk oscillated downward. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, production decreased synchronously, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2]. - The molten iron production increased slightly, but the downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, the proportion of steel mill losses expanded, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage was high, gradually alleviating the supply pressure [2]. - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports declined from a high level [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments were strong, and the shipment volume in the peak season was expected to remain high. The domestic arrival volume declined to below the annual average level, and the port inventory declined at the beginning of the week, with certain short-term structural fluctuations [3]. - On the demand side, the steel demand in the off-season was weak, the profitability of steel mills deteriorated, the molten iron production rebounded last week but was still in the seasonal production reduction trend, and there was further room for production cuts in the future, although the production reduction speed might slow down [3]. - At the macro level, it was in a policy vacuum period, temporarily lacking expected drivers [3]. Coke - The price dropped significantly during the day. The coking profit was still average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing willingness of traders was average [4]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [4]. Coking Coal - The price dropped significantly during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and the price dropped accordingly. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated [5]. - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal-producing areas, and the relevant impacts needed attention [5]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [5]. Silicon Manganese - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [6]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a relatively high level, and the silicon manganese inventory increased slowly [6]. - The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, the spot ore prices fluctuated quickly following the disk, and the manganese ore inventory increased slightly, with no prominent contradictions [6]. Silicon Iron - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [7]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall resilient demand [7]. - The silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal futures price is expected to oscillate in the range of 1130 - 1350, and the coke futures price in the range of 1630 - 1850. The macro - face has shifted from strong expectation and weak reality to weak expectation and weak reality. The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data. The profit of coke has limited room for significant improvement [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 192.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.6 tons [7]. - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 27.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 tons [7]. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 2012.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.61 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.47% [7]. - The warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal is 1550, with a discounted futures price of 1330 [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.62 percentage points [7]. - The daily average output of hot metal is 236.88 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.94 tons [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" policy has led to the first month - on - month increase in PPI since last November, and the year - on - year decline has reached the smallest in over a year. The NDRC and NEA have issued guidelines for new energy consumption and regulation, and the NDRC has organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season [8]. - Overseas, Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [8]. - In terms of supply and demand, the utilization rate of mine production capacity has rebounded, the inventory is neutral, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend [8]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract 2601 is above the 60 - day average, indicating a bullish weekly trend [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The open interest of coking coal futures decreased by 21,000 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 11.54 points. As of November 14, the open interest was 935,700 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread was 58.0, a week - on - week increase of 11.5 points [10][12]. - The number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts decreased by 300 lots, and the ratio of the January contracts of coke and coking coal increased by 0.02 week - on - week [16]. - The ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal remained flat week - on - week. As of November 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1380 yuan/ton, and the basis of coking coal was 186.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 146.5 points [23]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.1 Mine and Coal - Washing Plant - The utilization rate of production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 86.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. The daily average output of raw coal was 192.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.6 tons; the raw coal inventory was 434.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.3 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 75.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9 tons; the clean coal inventory was 165.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 tons [28]. - The utilization rate of production capacity of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 37.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%. The daily output of clean coal was 27.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 tons; the clean coal inventory was 300.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.9 tons [28]. 3.2 Coking and Iron - Making - The utilization rate of production capacity of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. The daily output of coke was 50.14 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52 tons [32]. - The daily average output of hot metal was 236.88 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.94 tons [32]. 3.3 Inventory - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 2012.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.61 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.47% [36]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased by 39.18 tons. Among them, the inventory at 3 ports in North China decreased by 12.18 tons, at 2 ports in Northeast China decreased by 7.00 tons, at 9 ports in East China increased by 2.00 tons, and at 2 ports in South China decreased by 22.00 tons [36]. - The available days of coking coal inventory in independent coking plants increased by 0.13 days. The coking coal inventory was 922.78 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons, and the available days were 13.8 days [40]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was at a relatively high level compared with the same period. The coking coal inventory was 790.17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.87 tons, and the available days were 12.87 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 days; the pulverized coal injection inventory was 425.25 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 tons, and the available days were 12.45 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 days [43]. 3.4 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills decreased due to cost increase and demand decline. The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 37 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 26 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 90 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 16 yuan/ton [47][49]. 3.5 Policy and Production - The NDRC aims to continuously enhance the coal production and supply capacity and strengthen the coal's supporting role. From January to September 2025, the production of industrial raw coal above the designated size was 3.57 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In September, the production was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and the daily average output was 1.372 million tons. The decline in raw coal production has narrowed [53]. - In September 2025, China's coking coal production was 3.97592 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.55% [53]. 3.6 Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal was 8.35311 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.03%. In September, the import volume continued to increase, driven by the improvement of import profit [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are following the strength of coking coal, mainly trading on the expectations of coal industry production cuts and over - production checks. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Currently, pricing is affected by both weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Steel prices are supported by the high - level steel mill production from September to October, which boosts raw material demand, and the expected coal supply situation. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to recover upwards. The pressure level for rebar is around 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is around 3500 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly rebounded, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, mainly due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports, which is an expected data change. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined. After major events ended, the hot metal production increased significantly last week, and the steel mill restocking demand has increased. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but it is still insufficient in the peak season, and raw materials are stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory has increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, since the steel mill's profit margin is still relatively high, hot metal production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Strategically, iron ore is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range of 780 - 850, and it is advisable to buy the iron ore 2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the current and futures prices. The second round of price cuts by steel mills on coke spot has been implemented, and the port trade quotes have followed the decline. On the supply side, due to the previous 7 - round price increases in coke, the coking profit has increased. After 2 rounds of price cuts, coking still has profits, and northern coke enterprises have rapidly resumed production. On the demand side, steel mills have resumed production this week, hot metal production has increased significantly, and downstream demand is still supported. In terms of inventory, the coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, while the port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coke and coking coal in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. With the improvement of coking profit and the lifting of production restrictions, the coke production, supply, and logistics transportation have recovered. It is temporarily expected that there is room for 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Since the expected decline range is not large, the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the steel industry's policies to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts, as well as the market fluctuations of steel and whether the peak season expectations are fulfilled. It is recommended to buy the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between the current and futures prices. The spot auction prices are stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes have rebounded following the futures. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it will take time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main producing area coal mines have gradually resumed production as expected, logistics transportation has recovered, and coal mines have sold at reduced prices, resulting in a certain improvement in sales. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. On the demand side, hot metal production has increased significantly this week, and coking operations have also increased rapidly. The impact of environmental protection restrictions has been lifted. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills have reduced their inventories, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports have slightly increased their inventories, and the overall inventory has slightly decreased at a medium level. After 2 rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders have started to buy in advance, and the trading volume has improved slightly. The market generally expects a limited decline space, and the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. There is restocking demand before the National Day. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Rebar futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3205 yuan/ton, 3045 yuan/ton, and 3136 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 16 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3410 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3374 yuan/ton, 3398 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 6 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 6 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 3010 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar is 3311 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coils is 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China hot - rolled coils is 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The profit of East China rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of North China rebar is - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.6 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 857.2 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons or - 0.4% compared with the previous value. Rebar production is 211.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value, including a decrease of 3.6 tons or - 11.7% in electric - arc furnace production and a decrease of 3.1 tons or - 1.7% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production is 325.1 tons, an increase of 10.9 tons or 3.5% compared with the previous value [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products is 1514.6 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value. Rebar inventory is 653.9 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 373.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or - 0.3% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials transaction volume is 11.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 843.3 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 198.1 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 326.2 tons, an increase of 20.8 tons or 6.8% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 828.6 yuan/ton, 837.0 yuan/ton, 833.0 yuan/ton, and 847.8 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines has increased by 20.0 yuan/ton, 14.5 yuan/ton, 14.6 yuan/ton, and 15.7 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 39.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 906.0 yuan/ton, 789.0 yuan/ton, 811.0 yuan/ton, and 745.0 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, and 4.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.3 dollars/ton; the Platts 62% Fe price is 106.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons or - 3.5% compared with the previous value; the global shipment volume (weekly) is 3573.1 tons, an increase of 816.9 tons or 29.6% compared with the previous value; the national monthly import volume is 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 131.5 tons or - 1.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value; the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 337.3 tons, an increase of 13.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value; the national monthly pig iron production is 6979.0 tons, a decrease of 100.7 tons or - 1.4% compared with the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production is 7737.0 tons, a decrease of 228.8 tons or - 2.9% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13849.47 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8993.1 tons, an increase of 53.2 tons or 0.6% compared with the previous value; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, a decrease of 1.0 days or - 4.8% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the warehouse - receipt price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1538 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1689 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke 05 contract price is 1828 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread is - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 1099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1188 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton [6]. - The coking coal 05 contract price is 1285 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton; the 05 - contract basis is - 186 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread is - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Demand - **Coke Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.14% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coke Demand**: The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.8 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines is 867 tons, an increase of 43.8 tons or 5.4% compared with the previous value; the clean coal production is 442.5 tons, an increase of 23.3 tons or 5.6% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 906.2 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 67.8 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons or 2.0% compared with the previous value; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 633.3 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons or 1.5% compared with the previous value; the port inventory is 205.1 tons, an

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Seasonal improvement in apparent demand is expected later, with a narrowing supply - demand gap and mild inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is unlikely to exceed the current production level. Currently, steel prices are supported by the strong raw material prices due to high steel mill production in September - October and supply - side expectations of coal. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day inventory replenishment, prices are expected to recover. The pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3350 yuan and 3500 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in different regions rose slightly or remained unchanged, and futures prices also increased. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also showed an upward trend [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of some steel production processes decreased, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profit of rebar in some regions improved [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2. Rebar production decreased by 3.1% to 211.9, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.5% to 325.1 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6, rebar inventory increased by 2.2% to 653.9, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% to 373.3 [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 1.0%, the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 1.9% to 843.3, rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.0% to 198.1, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 6.8% to 326.2 [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side saw a slight decline in steel mill profit margins, a significant increase in pig iron output last week after major events, and an increase in steel mill inventory replenishment demand. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, and the port clearance volume increased month - on - month. Looking forward, due to the still - high profitability of steel mills, pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, with a bullish view on single - side fluctuations, and the recommended trading range is 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The basis of the 01 contract for some varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread changed significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the new exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5% to 2362.3, and the global weekly shipment volume increased by 29.6% to 3573.1. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.2% to 10462.3 [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 4.2% to 337.3, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.0, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7737.0 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the import ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 8993.1, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% to 20.0 [4]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the recent futures and spot prices. The second - round price cut by steel mills in the spot market was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the decline. The third - round price cut is considered difficult. On the supply side, coking enterprises in the north resumed production rapidly due to still - existing profits after two - round price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production this week, and the downstream demand was still supported. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills increased inventory slightly, while ports reduced inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coking coal and coke in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties decreased, and the futures prices of coke increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed. The coking profit decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 1.2% to 906.2, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.0% to 67.8, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5% to 633.3, and the port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 75.44% to - 3.1 [6]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between futures and spot. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes followed the futures rebound. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it still takes time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main - producing area coal mines resumed production as expected, and the logistics and transportation recovered. In terms of imports, the Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. On the demand side, the pig iron output increased significantly this week, and the coking operation rate increased synchronously. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills reduced inventory, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports increased inventory slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly in the middle position. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties decreased slightly, and the futures prices of coking coal increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of raw coal increased by 5.4% to 867, and the weekly output of clean coal increased by 5.6% to 442.5 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 1.2% to 125.0, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.0% to 883.5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.34% to 793.7, and the port inventory decreased by 1.6% to 271.1 [6].