港股公司报告 | 公司点评 珍酒李渡（06979） 证券研究报告 自有产能释放贡献毛利率提升。25H1 公司毛利率提升 0.28pcts 至 59.04%， 归母净利率提升 4.83pcts 至 23.02%，销售费用率、管理费用率分别 +1.15/+3.34pcts 至 22.24%/9.76%。毛利率提升预计主要系：1、毛利率更高 的李渡占比提升；2、自有产能释放取代外购降低单位成本。 25 年保持战略定力，多措并举促增长。25 年公司顺应需求变化，产品侧 重次高端&中端价位，渠道加大宴席场景拓展，多措并举有望推动公司稳 健增长。考虑当前白酒行业整体仍处于调整期，我们调低 2025-2027 年盈 利预测，预计 2025-2027 年，公司实现营业收入 59.78、65.90、71.41 亿元 （前值 73.28、81.00、87.86 亿元），实现归母净利润 10.73、12.94、17.00 亿元（前值 15.25、18.20、23.05 亿元），对应 PE（2025-09-29 收盘）为 26.58、 22.03、16.77X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：1、珍酒全国化扩张不及预期；2、酱酒行业竞 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye's net profit for H1 2025 reached 19.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.28%, while Q2 2025 net profit was 4.632 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.58% [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Wuliangye's sales gross margin decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 76.83%, and in Q2 2025, it decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 74.69% [1] - The company experienced stable growth in the opening rate of its 1618 and 39-degree Wuliangye products, contributing to an increase in product sales [1] Market Dynamics - The number of banquet events and the opening of bottles via QR codes in the first half of the year maintained a double-digit growth year-on-year [1] - As the liquor industry enters an adjustment period, Wuliangye's brand strength is becoming more prominent [1] Investment Outlook - Given the mid-year performance and the relatively slow recovery of high-end liquor demand, the profit forecast has been adjusted, but the "buy" rating is maintained [1]

距离国庆中秋长假仅有几天，名酒的动销持续回暖。 21世纪经济报道肖夏综合报道 白酒旺季终于回归，形势依旧分化——一边是名酒价格回升，另一边整体行情依旧下行；动销回暖的同时，全行业产量 还在继续收缩。行业要闻 中秋国庆旺季临近茅台、五粮液等名酒动销回暖 9月25日、26日开始，多个酒价平台数据报出的飞天茅台价格集体上涨，28日有酒价平台显示，飞天茅台的报价单日上 涨了30元。 21世纪经济报道记者上周在重庆也走访了多类终端，普遍反馈飞天茅台的动销近期回暖，报价多在1900元至2000元区 间，且上周末报价在此前已经上涨的基础上再度上涨。 此前贵州茅台（600519）官方公众号发文称，9月25日茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉率队深入青海市场一线调研， 并在西宁组织召开青甘新藏四省区贵州茅台酒市场营销座谈会。会上透露，9月以来，贵州茅台酒终端动销增长表现更 加显著，环比增长约1倍，同比增长超20%。茅台方面认为，这一系列积极变化，既显示出消费端节日需求增长，也充分 体现了面对行业周期调整，茅台酒"4+6"渠道体系所展现出的渠道良好韧性。 国家统计局上周披露了9月工业主要产品产量。9月，全国规模以上企业白酒产量20. ...

历史上白酒如何走出调整期 20250924 摘要 2008 年金融危机期间，中国经济放缓冲击高端白酒消费，国务院 4 万 亿刺激计划带动市场回暖，白酒指数显著上涨，基本面逐季改善，政策 催化是关键因素。 2012-2015 年白酒行业受"三公消费"限制影响，中高端政商务需求 大幅削减，行业进入下行通道。降息降准、地产政策松绑及棚改货币化 等措施推动经济复苏。 2018 年贸易战和去杠杆政策导致经济下行，但财政加码等支持性政策 及领导层表态，形成"政策底"，恢复市场信心，宏观调控措施迅速推 动行业回暖。 当前（2025 年）宏观环境与历史存在较大差异，不宜简单对比。二季 度报表端确认出清，渠道库存减少，可能接近底部，应关注宏观调控、 库存变化及企业基本面。 2019 年初信贷数据超预期，消费环境转暖，白酒行业开始上升，外资 流入是重要因素。在业绩未明显改善情况下，白酒指数大幅上涨，估值 贡献显著。 Q&A 白酒行业在过去 30 年经历了哪些主要的调整周期？这些周期的背景和主要影 响因素是什么？ 过去 30 年，白酒行业经历了四个主要的调整周期。第一个周期是 1999 年至 2003 年，受亚洲金融危机和通缩影响 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance pressure in the liquor industry, particularly in the first half of 2025, with a focus on the upcoming festive season as a potential opportunity for investment [1][2][3] Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the liquor industry experienced a revenue decline of 0.8% year-on-year, totaling 241.42 billion yuan, with the second quarter seeing a more significant drop of 4.9% to 88.06 billion yuan due to policy impacts [9][10] - High-end liquor maintained growth with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half and 3.4% in the second quarter, while mid-tier and regional brands faced substantial declines, with some experiencing drops as severe as 31.1% [10][12] - The overall net profit for the liquor industry decreased by 1.18% in the first half and 7.5% in the second quarter, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [20][28] Short-term Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the upcoming festive season, with expectations of improved sales performance despite ongoing pressures [2][3] - It emphasizes the need for liquor companies to balance market share and structural upgrades while managing pricing and sales dynamics [2][3] Long-term Outlook - The liquor index shows a strong correlation with the Producer Price Index (PPI), with a potential turning point noted in August 2025, which could signal a recovery phase for the industry [2][3] - The report indicates that the liquor sector possesses high return on equity (ROE) and dividend characteristics, with valuations currently positioned in the mid-to-lower range of the industry [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands that are expected to perform well during the festive season, including high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as mid-tier brands like Zhenjiu Lidong and Luzhou Laojiao [3][4] - It suggests that the current market conditions may present a buying opportunity as the industry approaches a potential bottom in performance expectations [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to the ongoing adjustment phase in the liquor industry and challenges in traditional consumption scenarios [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 1.498 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.84% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 105 million yuan, down 56.52% year-on-year [1] - In Q2, operating revenue was 539 million yuan, a decrease of 31.37% year-on-year, with a net loss of 84.88 million yuan compared to a profit of 56.12 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Product Performance - High-end product revenue was 1.305 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 81.66%, a decline of 3.87% [1] - Mid-range product revenue was 87 million yuan, down 10.37% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 56.1%, a decline of 7.02% [1] - New channels generated revenue of 468 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.12%, with sales volume of 1.672 million liters, up 189.36% [1] - Wholesale and agency channels saw revenue of 924 million yuan, down 34.35% year-on-year, with sales volume of 2.605 million liters, down 17.48% [1] Market Challenges - The liquor industry is experiencing an adjustment period, leading to low-price dumping and market chaos, which has impacted the pricing system and eroded profits for some distributors [2] - The company issued a statement addressing market concerns and announced a halt on the sale of certain products to stabilize the pricing system [2] - The company emphasized the importance of stabilizing the channel pricing system and plans to implement measures to support the steady development of core products across all channels [2]

Core Insights - The company reported its 2025 H1 financial results, showing a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit [1] - The revenue contribution from Moutai liquor has increased, with direct sales channels showing significant growth [2] - There is a decline in contract liabilities and cash flow, but overall profitability remains stable [3] Financial Performance - For 2025 H1, the company achieved operating revenue of 893.89 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 454.03 billion, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 453.90 billion, representing year-on-year growth of +9.10%, +8.89%, and +8.93% respectively [1] - In Q2 2025, the operating revenue was 387.88 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders was 185.55 billion, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 185.40 billion, with year-on-year growth of +7.28%, +5.25%, and +5.23% respectively [1] Product and Channel Analysis - In Q2 2025, revenue from Moutai liquor reached 320.32 billion, while series liquor revenue was 67.40 billion, with Moutai liquor's revenue share increasing by 2.61 percentage points to 82.62% [2] - Direct sales revenue grew by +16.52% to 167.89 billion, while wholesale revenue increased by +1.48% to 219.83 billion, with direct sales accounting for 43.30% of total revenue [2] - The number of distributors increased by 192 to 2395, although the average scale per distributor decreased by -1.13% to 16.18 million [2] Market Expansion - Revenue from international markets increased by +27.64% to 17.74 billion, with its share rising by 0.72 percentage points to 4.58%, attributed to the company's efforts in expanding its international market presence [2] Profitability and Cost Management - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin was 90.42% and net profit margin was 47.84%, showing a slight decline of -0.26 and -0.92 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow decreased by -84.29% to 43.10 billion, influenced by reduced deposits and increased statutory reserves [3] - Contract liabilities fell by -44.86 billion year-on-year to 55.07 billion, with cash sales in Q2 2025 amounting to 389.43 billion, down -4.64% year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenue growth of +9%, +7%, and +7% to reach 1903 billion, 2037 billion, and 2175 billion respectively, and net profit growth of +9%, +7%, and +6% to reach 943 billion, 1006 billion, and 1070 billion respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's H1 2025 financial report reveals a significant slowdown in growth, with total revenue of 89.4 billion yuan, a 9.16% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, an 8.89% increase, marking the first time since 2015 that revenue growth has fallen below double digits [2][3][4] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Moutai's daily profit was approximately 250 million yuan, a drop of over 6 percentage points compared to the 328 million yuan daily profit in 2024 [2][4] - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 38.8 billion yuan and net profit of 18.5 billion yuan, with growth rates of only 7.3% and 5.2%, respectively, marking the lowest quarterly growth in nearly a decade [2][4] Strategic Adjustments - Moutai has set a growth target of 9% for the year, achieving this through controlled growth strategies to navigate the downward cycle [4][6] - The company has experienced a rare decline in gross margin, with overall gross margin dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 91.5% despite a 10.24% increase in Moutai liquor revenue [4][6] Market Dynamics - The mid-range liquor market is facing intense competition, with Moutai's series liquor experiencing price pressure from competitors like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [5][6] - The number of series liquor distributors increased by 137 to a historical high of 2,234, but sales per store have significantly declined, indicating pressure on existing distributors [5][6] Financial Indicators - Contract liabilities (prepayments from distributors) fell sharply by 42.59% to 5.507 billion yuan, the lowest since 2016, signaling weakened distributor confidence [6][7] - Operating cash flow decreased by 64.18% to 13.119 billion yuan, raising concerns about the sustainability of Moutai's reliance on direct sales channels [6][7] Future Outlook - Despite challenges, Moutai's international market revenue grew by 31.26% to 2.893 billion yuan, and direct sales maintained an 18.6% growth rate [7] - To meet the annual growth target of 9%, Moutai needs to achieve revenue of 41.6 billion yuan and net profit of 21.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, necessitating a recovery in growth rates [7]

Group 1 - Shandong is a major province for the production and sales of Chinese liquor, with a market size of approximately 55 billion yuan in 2024, making it a competitive battleground for brands [1] - Langjiu Group's chairman, Wang Junlin, is leading efforts to strengthen the company's presence in Shandong over the next three years, despite facing challenges such as high inventory and price inversion in the industry [1] - The white liquor market is currently undergoing a deep adjustment period, with continuous price declines observed in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Langjiu's product matrix includes key items such as Qinghua Lang, Honghua Lang, and Hongyun Lang, with a focus on premium and high-end products [3] - The pricing structure of Langjiu's flagship product, Qinghua Lang, has shown significant weakness, with a price drop of 21.79% over the past five years [4] - The overall trend in the white liquor market indicates a decline in prices, with Moutai's price dropping by 36.15% since 2022, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics [3][4] Group 3 - The competitive landscape in Shandong shows that the majority of consumers prefer strong aroma liquor, with over 70% of low-alcohol consumption in certain regions, posing a challenge for Langjiu's primarily sauce-flavored product lineup [11] - Langjiu's market position in Shandong is relatively weak compared to other brands, with a need to surpass the 1 billion yuan threshold to compete effectively [13] - The market is dominated by established brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, creating a challenging environment for new entrants like Langjiu [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the "Guizhou Moutai (Five-Star Trademark 70th Anniversary Commemorative)" has led to a significant price surge, indicating strong market demand despite a general slowdown in the liquor industry [1][3]. Price Movement - The wholesale reference price for the "Five-Star 70th Anniversary Commemorative" reached 12,500 yuan per bottle, a 47.06% increase from the previous day and a 78.57% increase from its initial sale price of 7,000 yuan [1][2]. - Other Moutai products, such as Flying Moutai and Zodiac Moutai, are experiencing lackluster price performance [1]. Secondary Market Trends - The secondary market price for the commemorative liquor is around 20,000 yuan, with special numbered bottles fetching up to 30,000 yuan [6][14]. - The trend of "one code, one price" is emerging in the secondary market, indicating a growing interest from resellers and collectors [6]. Financial Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, with net profit rising by 8.89% to 45.403 billion yuan [6][9]. - The company's revenue growth rate for the first half of the year is the lowest in nearly a decade, reflecting broader industry challenges [6][9]. Strategic Initiatives - Moutai has introduced several new products this year, including the Snake Year Zodiac liquor and the "Walking Series" for the Osaka Expo, to enhance market presence [10]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its direct sales channels, with direct sales revenue increasing by 18.63% to 40.01 billion yuan [15]. Market Context - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment phase, with overall performance growth slowing down across various companies [9]. - Moutai has adjusted its annual revenue growth target from 15% to 9% in response to market conditions [9].