碳酸锂市场强势突破，供应扰动与需求分化 共振 --碳酸锂周报（2025年12月15日-12月19日） 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货周度上涨7.57%至103000元/吨，工业级上涨 | | | | 7.63%至101550元/吨，市场情绪高涨。但期货升水结构显著，基差环比扩大 | | | | 326.4%至-8400元/吨，显示现货跟涨乏力。 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度上涨14.0%至111400元/吨，周内最高触及113500元/ | 碳酸锂市场在情 | | | 吨，波动剧烈。持仓量环比增长5.1%，周内一度增至672711手，显示多空博弈加 | 绪与基本面背离 | | | 剧。 | 下，高位震荡加 | | | 【供应方面】：国内碳酸锂产能利用率维持83.52%高位，但氢氧化锂产能利用率 | 剧，上行空间或 | | | 环比下降2.44%至4 ...

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/12/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 114,380.00 | +2980.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -146,949.00 | +8070.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 671,889.00 | +3060.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,580.00 | -120.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 16,411.00 | +900.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 99,000.00 | +1350.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 96,350.00 | +1300.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -15,380.00 | -1630.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 0.00 | -13 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rebounded, and currently, industry leaders are bullish on the demand and price of lithium carbonate in 2026. The market is conducting long - short trading around the resumption of production at Jiangxi mines, and the exchange has introduced policies to suppress price fluctuations [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to increase, and the supply is restricted. The cost is rising, which forms a support for the price. The price is expected to be between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background and Route - **Background**: In 2025, due to oversupply, the price of lithium carbonate dropped from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 60,000 yuan/ton at the end of June. Then, driven by favorable fundamentals, it climbed to around 100,000 yuan/ton. The market has different views on the future price, so the research was carried out [2] - **Route**: The research route covered Jiujiang, Xinyu, and Yichun, with a total of 7 research samples, including 4 lithium salt enterprises, 1 lithium mine enterprise, 1 battery enterprise, and 1 industry association [3] 3.2 Summary of Enterprise and Industry Research Information 3.2.1 Lithium Salt Enterprises - **J Company**: It extracts lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate from lithium - containing minerals. The planned production capacity is 50,000 tons, with 20,000 tons of flexible production lines already built. The production ratio of lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate is 1:1. It uses the causticization route, with over 60% of the ore used to produce lithium hydroxide. The raw materials are mainly from salt lakes and recycling, and the inventory is about one week. The monthly sales volume is 1200 - 1400 tons, and it plans to conduct hedging [4] - **L Company**: It processes lithium salt relying on upstream cooperative mining enterprises. The current production capacity is 40,000 tons, and the current monthly output is 3300 tons. The raw materials are mainly from Hunan, and the price is calculated based on futures and processing fees. It is in a state of full production and full sales, and the price is set according to futures [4][5] - **H Company**: It is one of the earliest companies to extract lithium from mica, with a production capacity of 15,000 tons. It is in full - production, and the raw materials are mainly mica ore and recycled materials. The supply is affected by the market price of lithium carbonate [5] - **T Company**: It engages in lithium salt toll - processing, with a production capacity of 5000 tons. The downstream demand is good, and the production is scheduled until the first half of next year. The processing fee has decreased, and it participates in futures hedging. It estimates that the price of lithium carbonate will reach 150,000 yuan/ton next year [5][6] 3.2.2 Lithium Mine Enterprise - **Z Company**: The mine has an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate. After the technological transformation at the end of this year, the corresponding production capacity of lithium fluoride and lithium carbonate will be 72,000 tons. The current production capacity is about 60,000 tons, and it is expected to reach 50,000 - 60,000 tons in 2026. It also produces rubidium and cesium salts, with a profit margin of over 50%. It has participated in futures hedging of several thousand tons [7] 3.2.3 Battery Enterprise - **D Company**: It focuses on high - end semi - solid polymer small - power lithium - ion batteries, with products used in drones and two - wheeled vehicles. The downstream order demand is strong, and the prices of raw materials such as electrolyte, diaphragm, and cathode materials are rising. It believes that the price of lithium carbonate will be above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the demand for small - power batteries will be huge [8][9] 3.2.4 Industry Association - **F Branch**: In November 2025, the global supply of lithium carbonate was about 115,000 tons, with a demand of 128,000 tons, a gap of 13,000 tons. The A - share lithium mining sector has room for valuation repair. The whole - industry chain inventory is at a historical low, with strong demand resilience and huge restocking demand [10] - **Demand**: In 2026, the adjustment of the purchase tax exemption policy will drive the demand for new energy vehicles, and the breakthrough in all - solid - state battery technology will open up the application space for lithium resources. The demand for lithium carbonate in the energy storage field is increasing [11] - **Supply**: The resumption of production of a core lithium mine in Jiangxi is delayed, the production capacity and output of lithium mica enterprises in Yichun have decreased, and the supply expansion of overseas lithium resources is restricted [11][12] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium carbonate is rising, and 80,000 yuan/ton is the critical line for the restart of high - cost production capacity [12] - **2026 Expectation**: The optimistic expectation is that the demand growth rate is 30 - 40%, and the price is expected to exceed 150,000 yuan/ton. The neutral expectation is that the price will be maintained at 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Summary of Lithium Salt Research - **Supply and Demand**: The prices of the whole lithium carbonate industry chain are rising, and enterprises generally believe that the price will be above 100,000 yuan/ton next year. The leading lithium salt enterprises in Yichun are in a state of full production and full sales, while non - leading enterprises are in a state of suspension [13] - **Quotation**: The sales prices of lithium ore, recycled materials, and lithium carbonate are basically linked to the market price of lithium carbonate plus or minus the processing fee [14] - **Resumption of Production**: The Jiuxiaowo mine is still shut down, and the earliest resumption of production will be at the end of December or early next year. The actual monthly supply of lithium carbonate is about 7000 tons [14] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium mica is equivalent to a lithium carbonate price of 100,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of the Jiuxiaowo mine is expected to be 80,000 yuan/ton [14] - **Future Supply and Demand and Price**: It is expected that in 2026, the global supply of lithium carbonate will be 2.089 million tons, and the demand will be 2.004 million tons, with a static surplus of 85,000 tons. Considering the restocking demand, the supply - demand structure will be in short supply, and the price is likely to fluctuate between 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]

Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Market Soars and Then Declines, with Intensified Capital Gaming in the Context of Strong Supply and Demand - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report from October 27 - 31, 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate between 80,000 - 84,000 yuan per ton next week, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of warrant cancellations. The current market is in a high - level oscillation stage. The core contradiction lies in the game between the expectation of new capacity release and strong demand. The short - term pattern of strong supply and demand will continue, but capital sentiment fluctuations will intensify price oscillations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The weekly increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 5.29% to 83,600 yuan per ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive to 2,820 yuan per ton. Industrial - grade carbonate lithium also rose 5.39% to 82,150 yuan per ton, with a stable price difference of 1,450 yuan per ton between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The weekly increase of carbonate lithium futures was 5.05%, from 75,700 yuan to 79,520 yuan. The arrival price of battery - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.82% to 79,400 yuan, and the spot price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.77% to 77,950 yuan. The prices of lithium hydroxide remained unchanged [2][4] - **Lithium Salt Premium Changes**: The weekly premium changes of different raw materials and enterprises for lithium carbonate were significant. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials increased by 150 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium Industry increased by 100 yuan [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Carbonate Lithium Production**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained at 74.39%. Although new production lines were put into operation, the actual increase was limited. The production of different regions and raw material sources is also an important part of the supply side [2] - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: The production of energy - storage cells increased by 5% week - on - week to 52GWh, the weekly production of ternary materials reached 18,568 tons, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60%, showing strong demand [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The shipping cost of lithium ore imports was stable with a slight increase. The shipping cost of the Nigerian route increased by 7.14% week - on - week. In September, the import volume decreased by 10% month - on - month, indicating tight overseas supply [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation and Cost**: The shipping costs from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and other countries remained unchanged, while those from Nigeria decreased. For example, the bulk shipping cost from Nigeria decreased by 7.14% [27] - **Carbonate Lithium and Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Social Inventory**: The warrant inventory decreased by 3.76% week - on - week to 27,621 lots, and the available inventory of lithium ore increased by 9.09% to 12,000 tons, with limited overall inventory pressure [2] - **Carbonate Lithium Warrants**: The total number of carbonate lithium warrants decreased by 1,987 lots week - on - week, from 30,686 lots to 28,699 lots [40] Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 82.52% week - on - week to 9,339 yuan per ton, while the lithium mica route still had a loss of 7,681 yuan per ton, and cost differentiation intensified industry reshuffle [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Materials Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Materials Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium Battery Materials and Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.93% to 74,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,750 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 71,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,980 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons to 40,309 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 120 tons to 12,989 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 20 tons to 2,840 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 18 tons to 2,763 tons, and lithium recycling increased by 35 tons to 1,924 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking. Downstream inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 60,893 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,440 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 964 tons to 33,492 tons [3]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and the firm price of lithium ore still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. It is necessary to manage positions well [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,740 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained unchanged at 856 US dollars/ton. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan/ton and 1,875 yuan/ton respectively. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased by 70 yuan to 6,150 yuan/ton, and the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased by 75 yuan to 7,285 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased by 0.05 US dollars/kg to 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price increased by 250 yuan to 58,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 230 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 494 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells increased slightly, while the prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, different grades of lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13]. - **Spreads**: Charts 11 - 22 show the trends of various spreads such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][22]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 2025 to September 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including market data and macro - industry news. It shows that lithium carbonate production continues to increase and the market is in an oscillatory state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 74,040, with a change of 1,160 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 342,719, down 2,502 from T - 1; the open interest was 261,141, up 487 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 74,000, with a change of 1,140 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 85,570, down 1,336 from T - 1; the open interest was 178,347, down 8 from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 40,309, up 560 from T - 1 [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 290, down 1,260 from T - 1; the spot - 2601 was - 250, down 1,240 from T - 1; the 2511 - 2601 basis was 40, up 20 from T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,250, unchanged from T - 1; the spot - CIF was 6,772, down 132 from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 856, unchanged from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,875, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750, down 100 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500, down 100 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week's lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, an increase of 153 tons from last week. The industry inventory was 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons from last week [2]. - **Project News**: The 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project of the green comprehensive development and utilization of Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet was officially put into production on September 20 - 24, 2025 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market sentiment weakened today, with futures hitting the daily limit during the session and the main contract LC2511 closing at the limit price of 80,980. The sharp decline in the market was mainly due to the overall weakening of the macro - environment and capital stampede, while the fundamentals showed no obvious turning signal. The short - term seasonal support maintains a tight balance in the fundamentals, while the medium - term industrial supply and demand remain relatively loose. The lithium carbonate price is still greatly affected by short - term news, with limited downward space, and the main contract may find support between 75,000 - 80,000. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1][3][6] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Today, the overall sentiment in the lithium carbonate market weakened. After a sharp low opening in the morning, the market continued to trade downward. Futures hit the daily limit across the board during the session. Some contracts opened during the afternoon session, but the overall market remained weak. The main contract LC2511 closed at the daily limit price of 80,980 [1] Factors Affecting the Market - **Macro and Sentiment Factors**: The sharp decline in the market was mainly due to the overall weakening of the macro - environment and capital stampede. After the main contract broke through 90,000 on Monday but failed to hold, some funds left the market in advance. Yesterday, the market sentiment adjusted, combined with the weakening macro - atmosphere and less - than - expected policy statements. The commodity night market was generally in the red, and negative news also triggered market discussions, intensifying capital stampede [3] - **Supply - related News**: Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Yinli will resume production, which is in line with the previous 26 - day maintenance plan and has little impact on the overall supply. The Trump administration said it will highly prioritize law enforcement in several new industrial sectors including lithium, mainly related to product exports from Xinjiang. However, lithium projects in Xinjiang have not been scaled up, and the proportion of lithium - battery exports to the US has declined, so the actual impact may be limited. The results of mining rights issues in other mining areas in Jiangxi (except Jiaxiaowo) before September 30 and the resumption of production in Qinghai Salt Lake are still unclear, which may provide trading opportunities [3] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The fundamentals have maintained a tight balance recently. The smelting end has short - term inventory support, and supply has not significantly declined. Last week's production data was mainly driven by an increase in subcontracting. However, there is an expectation of a short - term contraction in domestic supply, which is expected to be gradually reflected in this week's data. In July, the total import of spodumene was 750,651 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.35%, and the import volume increased due to price incentives. The total export of lithium carbonate from Argentina in July was 10,300 tons, of which 9,000 tons were exported to China, with a significant month - on - month increase in exports, which supplemented the reduction in domestic supply to some extent [4] - **Demand**: Demand is showing a stable and optimistic trend, gradually entering the peak season. Most orders for lithium iron phosphate have increased. The production of ternary materials has also increased due to the increase in customer - supplied demand from the cell end. The overall orders for electrolytes are good. However, the sustainability of the actual demand boost under the inventory pressure of the material industry chain still needs to be tracked. Last week, there was a slight de - stocking across the board. The inventory of upstream smelters continued to decrease, while downstream and other trading sectors had a certain amount of restocking. As of August 14, the total weekly inventory in the SMM sample was 142,256 tons, with smelter inventory at 49,693 tons, downstream inventory at 48,283 tons, and inventory in other sectors at 44,280 tons [5] Market Outlook - The short - term price of lithium carbonate is still greatly affected by news, with limited downward space. The main contract may find support between 75,000 - 80,000. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term as the fundamentals are in a tight balance in the short term due to seasonal support, while the medium - term industrial supply and demand remain relatively loose. After the third quarter, there are still project expectations for African mines, South American and domestic salt lakes to increase production [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices showing a strong upward trend recently, driven by supply-side disturbances and production capacity adjustments [1][2] - Lithium carbonate futures opened at 88,160.0 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 90,100.0 yuan and a low of 87,720.0 yuan, reflecting a price increase of approximately 5.25% [1] - The supply side remains a critical factor, with expectations of reduced supply from various sources, including domestic mica and salt lakes in Chile, contributing to potential price increases [2] Group 2 - Hualian Futures noted that lithium carbonate production remains stable, with an increase in production capacity utilization among processing enterprises, while the demand from the new energy vehicle sector shows signs of marginal slowdown [1] - Newhu Futures emphasized that the current trading focus is on supply-side disturbances, with expectations of price increases due to potential supply reductions and upcoming seasonal demand [2] - CICC Futures highlighted uncertainties in the market, particularly regarding mining permits and potential production halts, which could lead to significant price volatility in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate main contract prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 69,980 yuan/ton before closing at 67,960 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.47% increase [1] - Analysts believe that supply-side disturbances and a continuous decrease in exchange warehouse receipts are the main factors driving recent price increases, while the overall supply remains sufficient [1] - Despite being a traditional off-season for demand, downstream orders are still relatively stable, indicating a less pronounced seasonal effect [1] Group 2 - Cangge Mining announced a halt in lithium resource development activities, affecting a production line with a monthly capacity of approximately 1,200 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, but the overall impact on the domestic lithium carbonate market supply is limited [2] - Domestic lithium carbonate production plans for July are projected to be 79,300 tons, a 7.1% increase month-on-month, with high operating rates maintained in Jiangxi and stable output in Qinghai [2] - Some manufacturers are experiencing increased orders and production enthusiasm, despite planned maintenance on certain spodumene production lines [2] Group 3 - Market sentiment is significantly driven by disturbances at the mining end, with lithium prices remaining strong, although downstream material manufacturers show little intention to actively replenish stocks [3] - The recent price increases are primarily driven by supply-side disturbances, with limited actual impact on the fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach in the short term [3] - Continuous reduction in warehouse receipts and rising lithium ore prices, combined with various market news disturbances, are stimulating price increases, while long-term hedging pressures may arise [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.16% to 62,780 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,300 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 59,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 57,720 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 312 tons to 22,940 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly lithium carbonate production increased 305 tons to 18,767 tons, with a relatively obvious increase from mica. In June, the lithium carbonate production increased over 9% month - on - month. On the demand side, according to third - party production scheduling data, the production of lithium iron phosphate in July is expected to increase 3% month - on - month, and the production of ternary materials is expected to increase 1.3% month - on - month. The weekly inventory turnover days have all increased, with a relatively obvious increase in lithium iron phosphate. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased 1,936 tons to 136,837 tons, with downstream inventory increasing 269 tons to 40,635 tons, intermediate link inventory increasing 1,260 tons to 37,170 tons, and upstream inventory increasing 407 tons to 59,032 tons [3]. - Last week, the lithium ore transaction price increased slightly. Lithium salt plants announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological upgrades, and there were many disturbances in the market news. However, the current price faces certain hedging pressure, and there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end. In the short term, it may still fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 62,780 yuan/ton on July 1, 2025, up 520 yuan from June 30; the closing price of the continuous contract was 62,980 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 625 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 720 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,255 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 61,300 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 59,700 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 57,720 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,870 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 52,070 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained at 8.1 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Other Products**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. Among the prices of precursors and cathode materials, most remained unchanged, with only the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) up 20 yuan/ton to 71,310 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary material 811 (power - type) down 20 yuan/ton to 142,530 yuan/ton. The price of most lithium batteries remained unchanged, with only the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries down 0.001 yuan/Wh to 0.299 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Price**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Price**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Price Difference**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursor & Cathode Material**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Price**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to June 2025 [35][37]. - **Production Cost**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [43]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [44].