短端策略性价比凸显 今年以来，债市不但没有走出单边强势行情，反而出现多次波动。研判后市，江磊直言债基基金经理或 面临更多挑战，这其中的核心在于债市投资赔率已降至历史低位。"现在投资债券的赔率非常低，信用 利差、期限利差都压得很薄。为了赚一两个基点，方向一旦做反，与同业的差距瞬间拉开。"同时，权 益市场回暖形成的"跷跷板"效应，也在分流债市资金，居民持有债基的"获得感"持续降低。 中短期来看，江磊认为，利率债进一步下行需要等待更多信号。"今年五月份降准降息刚落地，所以货 币政策对经济基本面的影响仍在观察期，结合银行净息差持续承压，我们预计三季度政策利率进一步调 降概率并不高。"他表示，"在利率中枢下行空间有限的背景下，短端票息策略会更具性价比。此外，当 前资金面整体宽松，短端收益率与回购利率之间仍存在一定利差，无论是套息策略还是短端票息策略， 都能为投资者提供较为确定的收益。" ● 本报记者魏昭宇 去年的"9.24"行情对权益市场提振较大，也使得债券市场震荡调整。当不少短债基金净值在那段时间回 撤幅度较大时，基金经理江磊却将光大超短债A的净值回撤幅度控制得相对平稳。这已成为他投资哲学 的生动注脚：严控信用风险、 ...

截至 7 月 18 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.40 年、3.52 年，均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水 平，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.42 年、3.67 年、2.48 年， 二级资本债和一般商金债久期均处于高位；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债 久期分别为 1.57 年、1.78 年、3.45 年、1.28 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，租赁公司债位于 较高历史分位。 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 2.40 年附近。其中，广东地级市、陕西省级城投债久期超 4.5 年，河北省 级城投债成交久期缩短至 0.44 年附近。同时，江苏地级市、福建地级市、浙江区县级、重庆区县级等区域城投债久 期历史分位数已逾 90%，江苏区县级城投债久期逼近 2021 年以来最高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所缩短，总体处于 3.52 年附近，医药生物行业成交久期缩短至 2.88 年， 建筑装饰行业成交久期拉长至 4.45 年。此外，食品饮料行业成交久期处于较低历史分位，公用事业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the allocation demand for credit bonds from funds, other product categories, and insurance has increased. Credit spreads have mostly narrowed or remained flat due to strong demand, with 1Y varieties showing strong resistance to decline and lower-rated bonds performing better than higher-rated ones [1][10][11]. - Currently, both credit bond coupons and credit spreads are at low levels, and the market trend is more dependent on institutional allocation demand. It is necessary to closely monitor institutional behavior, buying sentiment, and the potential compression space of credit spreads [1][12]. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern in July is favorable for credit bonds, and there is still a small amount of compression space for credit spreads. Specific strategies include focusing on short - to medium - duration bonds with credit rating sinking, and high - grade 10Y bonds have relatively large potential compression space for credit spreads [3][22]. - In the bank capital bond market, although the spread protection is thin, there is still compression space. Long - duration bonds of large banks and 2 - 3 year bonds of small and medium - sized banks are recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Credit Bond Market Overview - From July 1 - 11, funds' net purchase of credit bonds reached 88.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 39.1 billion yuan. Other product categories and insurance had net purchases of 31.3 billion and 15.2 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 7.8 billion and 5 billion yuan [1][11]. - From July 7 - 11, with the convergence of funds and the rotation of negative factors, the bond market fluctuated upwards. Credit bonds, due to strong allocation demand, saw most credit spreads narrow or remain flat [10]. 3.2. Factors Affecting Credit Bond Market 3.2.1. Institutional Behavior - Fund net trading volume of credit bonds is a sensitive indicator related to credit spread trends. Maintaining a daily net purchase of over 500 million yuan helps keep credit spreads low. From July 7 - 10, the rolling 5 - day net purchase was 1 - 1.4 billion yuan, but it dropped to 740 million yuan on the 11th, and was below 500 million yuan on the 10th and 11th [2][12]. 3.2.2. Buying Sentiment - The TKN成交占比 is used to measure buying sentiment. A stable TKN成交占比 above 75% indicates good buying sentiment. From July 7 - 11, as yields rose, the TKN成交占比 declined, with three days below 70%, but the rolling 5 - day average was around 70% [2][16]. 3.2.3. Potential Compression Space of Credit Spreads - By observing the position of credit spreads relative to the mean - 2 times the standard deviation, it is found that currently, each variety still has a small amount of compression space, with 10Y varieties having relatively large potential [3][22]. 3.3. Specific Bond Types Analysis 3.3.1. Urban Investment Bonds - From July 1 - 13, urban investment bonds had a net financing of 28.8 billion yuan. The primary market issuance sentiment was good, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times remaining at 61%. The issuance rate of long - term bonds decreased significantly, with the 10 - year average dropping to 2.14% [30][32]. - In the secondary market, short - term bonds were resistant to decline, while the yields of 3 - 10Y bonds increased. The trading activity decreased, and Shenzhen Metro had many high - valuation transactions [35][38]. 3.3.2. Industrial Bonds - From July 1 - 13, industrial bond issuance and net financing increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened slightly, and the proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly. The buying sentiment in the secondary market weakened, and the trading duration increased [40][42]. 3.3.3. Bank Capital Bonds - From July 7 - 13, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, yields generally rose, spreads showed differentiation, and low - grade, short - duration bonds performed better. Currently, credit spreads are at relatively low levels, but there is still compression space [45][46]. 3.3.4. TLAC Bonds - By comparing the yields of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds with TLAC bonds, the spreads are analyzed. As of July 11, 2025, the 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y spreads were 3.1bp, 3.8bp, and 1.4bp respectively, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds are more cost - effective [53]. 3.3.5. Commercial Financial Bonds - Since 2021, the valuation of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds has generally followed the trend of interest - rate bonds, with a stable spread center. As of July 11, the credit spread was 14bp, at a relatively low level [57].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weighted average trading durations of mainstream bond varieties are approaching their peaks again. As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are at 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and insurance company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it dropped and this week decreased slightly compared to last week, currently at the 17.8% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 All - Variety Duration Overview - As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively [2][10]. 3.2 Variety Microscope 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration hovers around 2.44 years. The durations of urban investment bonds in Guangdong prefecture - level cities and Hebei provincial - level are over 5 years, while the trading duration of Shanxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds has shortened to around 1.35 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level cities, Jiangsu district - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, and Chongqing district - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of Hunan provincial - level and Henan prefecture - level urban investment bonds are approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][16]. 3.2.2 Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration has slightly lengthened compared to last week, generally around 3.77 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry has shortened to 1.78 years, while that of the public utilities industry has lengthened to 4.62 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, commercial retail, and building materials are all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. 3.2.3 Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds has shortened to 2.95 years, at the 99.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds has shortened to 4.16 years, at the 92.4% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds has lengthened to 3.74 years, at the 68.3% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. 3.2.4 Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 79%, 23%, 16%, and 68% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities subordinated bonds have slightly lengthened compared to last week [4][25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The bond market fluctuated weakly this week due to multiple negative disturbances such as regulatory guidance on rural commercial bank bond investment and the supply of real estate and ultra - long - term bonds. The adjustment range of credit bonds was smaller than that of interest - rate bonds, and the spreads were mostly passively narrowed. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon individual bonds after the stock - bond seesaw effect, which helps to further narrow the credit spreads. It is advisable to allocate high - coupon varieties on rallies, and pay attention to the right - hand opportunities for long - term credit bonds after the market stabilizes [2][5]. - For institutions with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds. For institutions with strong liability - side stability, take advantage of stable liabilities to extend the duration and actively allocate long - term varieties [2][14]. - When considering taking profits on long - term credit bonds, pay attention to three time points: when funds continue to net buy but credit spreads do not further compress significantly; when the net buying power of funds weakens or turns to small net selling; and using 10 - 15BP above the lowest spread last year as a reference line [5][13]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog I. Bond Market Review and Credit Strategy Outlook - This week, the equity market sentiment was strong, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Most credit bond yields rose, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. The 3y - and - below short - end spreads of most varieties were compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term varieties still had some room [5][9][12]. - Looking forward, with the current fundamental pattern unchanged significantly and the second - quarter economic data being relatively strong, the risk of a trend reversal in the bond market is controllable. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon bonds, and if the adjustment continues next week, it may bring better layout opportunities [5][13]. II. Key Policies and Hot Events - Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. announced adjustments to the principal and interest repayment arrangements of 21 bonds, indicating that the debt restructuring of real - estate enterprises is accelerating and risk clearing is speeding up [2][16]. - Gansu Province established a 10 - billion - yuan provincial emergency working capital pool, with 2 billion yuan from provincial finance and 8 billion yuan from bank supporting financing, to support key enterprises in repaying due debts and effectively alleviate debt risks [2][3][16]. - The central bank and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced three opening - up optimization measures at the "Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025", which may bring new investment opportunities for Chinese overseas bonds traded in the Hong Kong market [2][3][17]. - Ten science - innovation bond ETFs completed their issuance, raising a total of 28.988 billion yuan, with subscriptions being extremely popular. Attention should be paid to the subsequent scale expansion [3][17]. III. Secondary Market - Credit bond yields generally rose this week, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. In terms of different varieties: - For urban investment bonds, yields generally rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of high - coupon urban investment bonds within 3y and extend the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties [20]. - For real - estate bonds, low - grade varieties were relatively weak. Currently, real - estate bond yields are still attractive, and attention can be paid to 1 - 2y central and state - owned enterprise real - estate AA and above varieties [21]. - For cyclical bonds, coal and steel bond yields mostly rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. For coal bonds, appropriate credit - risk exposure can be taken for short - end varieties, and the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties can be extended to 3y. For steel bonds, consider short - duration AA + implicit - rated varieties [21]. - For financial bonds, bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds generally underperformed, with yields rising and spreads mostly narrowing. Brokerage sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds also had yield increases and spread narrowing [22]. IV. Primary Market - This week, the credit bond issuance scale was 287.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 66.8 billion yuan, and the net financing was 88.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 47.8 billion yuan. The urban investment bond issuance scale was 102.3 billion yuan, an increase of 39.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 26 billion yuan, an increase of 174 billion yuan [6]. V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity of credit bonds in the inter - bank market decreased, while that in the exchange market increased [6]. VI. Rating Adjustments - This week, 1 entity's rating was downgraded, and 6 entities' ratings were upgraded [6].

Group 1 - The report indicates that since late May, the long-term credit bond market has seen significant net buying activity, reflecting high market participation enthusiasm [1][9] - The long-term credit bond market began to show independent trends in both last year and this year under extreme conditions of short-term yield compression, leading to a focus on duration for yield [9][12] - The report highlights that the current long-term credit bond market is influenced by the "stock-bond" effect, with institutions being cautious and focusing on profit-taking points [1][9] Group 2 - For the 5-7 year medium-term bonds, institutional net buying has significantly increased since late May, with peak net buying volumes reaching around 3.5 billion [2][14] - In the 7-10 year medium-term bonds, the fluctuation of fund net buying is a crucial factor affecting credit spreads, with insurance companies showing stronger net buying compared to last year [2][17] - For bonds over 10 years, the participation of funds has been limited this year, with the main buying force coming from insurance and other product categories, resulting in weaker effects on credit spread compression [2][18] Group 3 - The report states that the compression of credit spreads has reached an extreme level for short-term bonds (3 years and under), while there is still some room for long-term bonds (5 years and above) [3][23] - The report suggests that if funds continue to buy long-term credit bonds significantly, it could further compress spreads; otherwise, the compression potential may be limited [3][23] - The report identifies three key points for profit-taking in long-term credit bonds, including observing fund buying trends and credit spread movements [3][9] Group 4 - The report recommends that institutions with weaker liability stability should focus on 2-3 year low-grade bonds and 4-5 year high-yield bonds, while those with stronger stability should actively allocate long-term bonds [4][9] - The yield range for 7-year AA+ rated bonds and 10-15 year AA+ rated bonds is noted to be between 2.07% and 2.39%, indicating potential for yield exploration [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund's second quarter reports highlight a significant focus on bond fund investment strategies, with many bond funds experiencing growth in both share and asset scale, reflecting a positive outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year [1]. Group 1: Bond Fund Performance - Multiple bond funds have reported substantial increases in total shares, with the Debon Rui Xing Bond Fund reaching 4.462 billion shares, a 65.44% increase from the previous quarter [2]. - The fixed income asset portfolio of the Debon Rui Xing Bond Fund expanded by 49.45% to 6.189 billion yuan, with various asset types showing increased fair value [2]. - Other products, such as the Huian Yongfu 90-day holding period short-term bond fund and Debon short-term bond fund, also saw their total shares double compared to the previous quarter [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The market's increasing demand for coupon-bearing assets indicates a growing recognition of the value of bond assets, as noted by industry experts [4]. - The bond market has experienced fluctuations in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond currently around 1.65%, leading to a more volatile environment [4]. - Fund managers are adopting refined duration management and cautious credit selection strategies to navigate interest rate volatility, adjusting their portfolios dynamically in response to market conditions [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Several institutions are optimistic about the bond market in the third quarter, citing supportive fiscal and monetary policies as key factors [6]. - The Debon Rui Xing Bond Fund's report indicates that ongoing domestic demand and fiscal stimulus measures are likely to create a favorable environment for the bond market [6]. - Expectations for monetary policy easing, including potential interest rate cuts, are anticipated to further drive down bond yields in the second half of the year [6].

固收 信用债顺势继续挖掘 证券研究报告 SAC No. S0570520110003 SFC No. BSF414 华泰研究 文晨昕 研究员 wenchenxin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2068 仇文竹 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 朱沁宜 研究员 SAC No. S0570523080005 zhuqinyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 王晓宇 研究员 SAC No. S0570524070005 wangxiaoyu@htsc.com 2025 年 7 月 07 日│中国内地 信用周报 向怡乔 联系人 SAC No. S0570124020005 xiangyiqiao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 6 月市场抢跑，信用长债走强，7 月跨季后非银迎来增量，信用继续走强， 二永债领涨。往后看，基本面、资金面对债市仍偏多，跨季后理财债基有增 量，信用债及科创债 ETF 是新亮点，但能否继续扩容，核心仍在信用行情 的持续，目前标的估值已 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the investment rating of the industry in the report. Core Viewpoints - As of July 4, the weighted average trading maturities of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.27 years and 3.27 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading maturities of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.28 years, 3.73 years, and 3.27 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.52 years, 1.69 years, 3.33 years, and 1.37 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [2][9]. - The coupon duration crowding index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its peak in March 2024, it dropped and this week slightly decreased compared to last week, currently at the 27.80% level since March 2021 [12]. Summary by Directory 1. All - Variety Maturity Overview - The weighted average trading maturities of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, general commercial financial bonds, securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 2.27 years, 3.27 years, 4.28 years, 3.73 years, 3.27 years, 1.52 years, 1.69 years, 3.33 years, and 1.37 years respectively. Their corresponding historical quantiles since March 2021 were 94.1%, 97.7%, 97.3%, 68.1%, 99.5%, 29.1%, 13.9%, 70.8%, and 82.9% [11]. - The coupon duration crowding index declined after reaching its peak in March 2024 and this week slightly decreased compared to last week, currently at the 27.80% level since March 2021 [12]. 2. Variety Microscope - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The weighted average trading maturity hovered around 2.27 years. Guangdong provincial - level urban investment bonds had a duration of over 5 years, while Guizhou provincial - level urban investment bonds' trading duration shortened to around 0.48 years. The durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang, prefecture - level cities in Guangdong, district - county - level in Fujian, and prefecture - level cities in Shandong were at over 90% historical quantiles, and the durations of Hunan provincial - level and Henan prefecture - level urban investment bonds were approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][16]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The weighted average trading maturity was around 3.27 years, slightly longer than last week. The trading maturity of the real estate industry shortened to 1.85 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.63 years. The real estate industry's trading maturity was at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, food and beverage, biomedicine, commercial retail, and building materials were all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][20]. - **Commercial Bank Bonds**: The duration of general commercial financial bonds lengthened to 3.27 years, at the 99.5% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.28 years, at the 97.30% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds lengthened to 3.73 years, at the 68.10% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][23]. - **Other Financial Bonds**: In terms of the weighted average trading maturity, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 83%, 14%, 30%, and 71% historical quantiles respectively. The duration of insurance company bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week [3][25].

Group 1 - The total scale of ETFs surpassed 4 trillion yuan, reaching 4.31 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 15.57% compared to the end of last year [1] - The largest growth in the first half of the year was seen in bond ETFs, which grew by 120.71% to 383.976 billion yuan [1] - A total of 29 bond ETFs reached a combined scale of 383.976 billion yuan, setting a new historical record [1] Group 2 - Bond ETFs had the highest net inflow in the first half of the year, totaling 175.784 billion yuan [1] - Notable bond ETFs with net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan include Hai Futong Short-term Bond ETF, Southern Shanghai Stock Company Bond ETF, and others [1] - The top bond ETF by scale is the Government Financial Bond ETF, which reached 52 billion yuan [5][7] Group 3 - There are 15 bond ETFs with a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, including various types such as policy financial bonds and corporate bonds [5] - The rapid growth of bond ETFs is attributed to factors such as increased market liquidity, lower costs, improved regulatory frameworks, and a shift in investor risk preferences [10] - The credit bond market is experiencing fluctuations in yield, with low-grade credit spreads compressing the most [11] Group 4 - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that credit bond yields are likely to remain volatile, with potential for credit spreads to widen due to supply-demand mismatches [12][13] - Investment strategies should focus on short to medium-term high-grade credit bonds and consider opportunities in local government bonds [12]