北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 北交所研究团队 交 所 研 究 北 交 所 策 略 专 题 报 告 相关研究报告 《科马材料（920086.BJ）：干式摩擦片 隐形冠军，国产破局正当时—北交所 新股申购报告》-2026.1.2 《北交所股份协议转让增多，实现"产 业赋能"与"市场减压"双赢—北交 所策略专题报告》-2026.1.1 《新三板隐形冠军涌现：聚焦车联网 等细分行业，关注雅迅智联、一诺生 物 等 — 新 三 板 掘 金 周 报 第 三 期 》 -2025.12.28 布局 2026 春季行情，关注新质生产力和中小盘成长股机会 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 关注春季行情中北证新质生产力，行情后期中小盘成长主线或有第二波上涨 2024 年以来北交所经历了 2024 年"924"和 2025 年一季度到三季度行情，2025 年北证 50 指数四季度整体稳定。复盘 2013-2015 年创业板行情来看，行情后期 成长主线业绩兑现通常有第二波上涨，关注春季中的北证代表新质生产力的产 业链机会。1）本 ...

来源 | 华尔街见闻 白银价格突破45年纪录并预计将翻倍上涨，创造了大宗商品市场的罕见景象： 一盎司现货白银和期货白银的价格均超过了一桶原油。 贵金 属在避险需求与结构性供应紧张推动下持续走强，而原油市场则在供需格局再平衡过程中承压。 12月29日，截至17时20分，COMEX白银价格为74.79美元/盎司，现货白银价格为74.81美元/盎司，WTI原油为57.68美元/桶。 自1983 年WTI原油期货交易启动以来，白银价格持续高于原油的情形极为罕见，仅在2020年疫情期间短暂出现过两次。 白银价格的强劲上涨，主要得益于投资者和工业需求的双重驱动。 在工业应用方面，从太阳能电池板到电动汽车等清洁能源领域，对白银的 消耗量持续攀升，为其提供了坚实的长期需求支撑。 与此同时，全球原油市场面临供给过剩与需求结构转型的双重压力，2025年以来国际油价累计下跌21%，已回落至疫情复苏后的低位水平。 当前机构对白银未来走势的判断仍存分歧，但普遍认为原油价格短期内难有起色。 价格因素亦在重塑投资行为。在黄金价格突破每盎司4500美元后， 部分投资者转向白银这一更为便宜的"贵金属替代选项"。 印度近期白银 进口激增便是一例 ...

□本报记者 魏昭宇 刘元海，同济大学管理学博士。曾任东吴基金管理有限公司研究员、基金经理助理、基金经理、投资管 理部副总经理、总经理。现任东吴基金管理有限公司首席投资官，东吴移动互联混合等产品基金经理。 在波澜起伏的A股市场中，东吴基金首席投资官、基金经理刘元海以其较为亮眼的长期业绩表现吸引了 投资者的关注。截至2025年9月30日，他管理的东吴移动互联混合A近1年、近3年、近5年的回报率分别 为93.89%、241.82%、335.16%，据国泰海通证券排名数据显示，东吴移动互联混合A在同类产品中近五 年排名1/1488。 在近期科技板块大幅波动的背景下，市场对"AI是否出现泡沫"的讨论愈发热烈，投资者信心出现明显波 动。基于对全球科技产业的深入理解和对A股市场运行逻辑的长期摸索，刘元海近期在接受中国证券报 记者专访时表示，依然看好2026年科技行情，并将当前市场波动比喻为"倒车接人"的良机。 "科技产业的发展从来都不是一帆风顺，当前人工智能技术正处在从创新期向理性成长期过渡的关键阶 段，短期的估值调整或为长期投资者提供了难得的布局窗口。"刘元海向中国证券报记者表示。 洞悉产业趋势 在波段中找寻机遇 202 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has seen increased divergence among fund managers, with some benefiting from the technology sector while others express anxiety over missed opportunities [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index recently crossed the 4000-point mark, but market enthusiasm remains tepid, with trading volumes around 2 trillion yuan and significant adjustments in high-position sectors [4][6] Fund Manager Sentiment - Fund managers exhibit varied perspectives on the current market, with some expressing caution about a potential pause in the bull market, while others remain optimistic about long-term growth [5][6] - A significant portion of actively managed equity funds reduced their stock positions despite a rising market, indicating a cautious stance among institutional investors [4][5] Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector has become a focal point of debate among fund managers, with some maintaining a bullish outlook on its long-term investment value despite short-term volatility [6][7] - Fund managers have shown increased allocations to semiconductor, consumer electronics, and communication equipment sectors, with the electronics industry becoming the first to exceed 25% in active equity fund holdings [7][8] Performance Disparity - There is a stark performance disparity among funds, with over 40 funds doubling their performance in the past year, while more than 200 funds remain in a loss position [10][11] - Investment strategies play a crucial role in this disparity, with growth-oriented fund managers outperforming those adhering to traditional value investment principles [11][12] Future Market Outlook - The market outlook remains uncertain, with various factors such as macroeconomic conditions, policy direction, and industry developments influencing future trends [11] - Some institutions predict continued liquidity in the market but caution against potential volatility due to changes in high-risk funding sources [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for the stock index [4] Core View of the Report - This week, global stock markets strengthened, especially the Chinese stock market. Two factors boosted the market: the upcoming Sino-US trade and tariff negotiations in Malaysia, which alleviated concerns about the escalation of trade frictions; and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, whose top-level planning for the technology industry fit the market's imagination of technology stocks and maintained the medium - and long - term technology narrative. However, the rapid shrinkage of A - share trading volume has made liquidity the primary concern. If the trading volume continues to shrink, the high - level and high - valuation situation of the stock index will lack support. If the trading volume stabilizes, the market may still be boosted by macro - events and themes [2][10] Summary by Relevant Directory 1. One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview Next Week's View - Focus on the sustainability of the shrinkage of trading volume. Consider whether the Sino - US tariff negotiations and the stock market liquidity will continue to shrink [2][10] This Week's Key Event Concerns - On October 20: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held; the GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year; the 10 - month LPR remained unchanged; the new policy - based financial instruments of the National Development and Reform Commission had invested 1893.5 billion yuan; in September, China's soybean imports shifted from the US to South American countries [11][12][13][14][15] - On October 21: The trust management scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan [16] - On October 22: The unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 - year - old labor force was 17.7%; Shenzhen released a mergers and acquisitions and restructuring plan [17][18] - On October 23: China and the US will hold talks in Malaysia from the 24th to the 27th; the main goals of the "15th Five - Year Plan" were announced [19][20] - On October 24: Chinese national leaders will visit South Korea from the 30th to the 31st [22] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From 10/20 - 10/24, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 1.77%, with emerging markets (+2.04%) > developed markets (+1.74%) > frontier markets (+0.33%). The Chinese stock market rose 3.95%, leading the world, while the Swiss stock market fell 0.64%, performing the worst globally [23] Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From 10/20 - 10/24, Chinese equity assets rose significantly. In terms of different markets, A - shares > Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1797.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 395.6 billion yuan compared with last week (2193.1 billion yuan). All A - share sectors rose, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.05% (the best performance) and the Beixin 50 rising 2.74% (the worst performance) [26] Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most global GICS primary industries rose this week. The leading industry was energy (+2.84%), and the underperforming industry was consumer staples (-0.83%). In the Chinese market, information technology led the rise (+7.72%), and consumer staples lagged (-0.93%) [30] Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among China A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 27 rose (4 last week) and 3 fell (26 last week). The leading industry was communication (+11.56%), and the lagging industry was agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.59%) [33] Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles: Large - Cap Growth Dominates - This week, growth outperformed value, and the market - capitalization style was biased towards large - cap stocks [37] Futures Basis Overview - The report provides the basis data of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [38][40] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report shows the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple broad - based indexes such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc. [45] Primary Industry Valuation - The report presents the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [46] Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [47][52] Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Rate - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.82%, and in 2026 to 8.58%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 31.24%, and in 2026 was raised to 18.10%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 36.12%, and in 2026 was raised to 20.97% [53] 4. Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year yield and the 1 - year yield both rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98.9, and the offshore RMB was 7.12 [60] Trading - Type Fund Tracking - This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 35.4 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 21.1 billion yuan [64] Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There were 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 600 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 180 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 60 million, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 1.9 billion [67][68][70] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Supply Side: Crude Steel Output Contracted - The report shows data on the national blast furnace operating rate (247 enterprises), the national coking enterprise operating rate (100 enterprises), domestic crude steel daily output, and tire operating rate [74][79] Consumption Side: Real Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - The report provides data on the transaction area of first - hand housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 16 key cities, the land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, the listing volume and listing price of second - hand housing nationwide, the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales, and the recovery of crude oil prices to around $67 per barrel [84][86][88] Inflation Observation: Agricultural Product Prices Rebounded - The report shows that the recovery of production material prices was weak, agricultural product prices continued to recover, and presents the weekly change rate of the commodity index [94][97]

Market Overview - On October 21, the A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36% and surpassing 3900 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by over 3% [4] - More than 90% of ETFs in the market saw gains, with 1246 ETFs in the green, driven by the release of third-quarter earnings forecasts and ongoing news related to AI hardware and software [4] Leading ETFs - The 5G communication and artificial intelligence themed ETFs led the market, with several ETFs rising over 5% [4] - Notable performers included: - Communication ETF (515880.SH) up 6.76% - 5GETF (159994.SZ) up 6.40% - 5G Communication ETF (515050.SH) up 6.20% - Various ChiNext AI ETFs also saw increases ranging from 5.13% to 5.59% [5] Sector Performance - The communication, electronics, and real estate sectors showed significant gains, contributing to the overall market rebound [4] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) also performed well, rising by 2.47% with a trading volume exceeding 400 million yuan, and its total size surpassing 5.5 billion yuan since its launch [5][6] Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers from GF Fund highlighted that short-term geopolitical factors may impact technology, but long-term influences are tied to China's economic recovery expectations, potential Fed rate cuts, and the ongoing development of the technology sector [6] - The insurance sector is showing strong performance, with major companies reporting net profit increases exceeding 40%, driven by favorable equity investments [9] Trading Activity - The short-term bond ETF (511360) recorded the highest trading volume at 38.419 billion yuan, leading the market in ETF trading activity [10][11] - The low-fee ChiNext ETF (159952) also saw significant trading, with a volume of over 5 billion yuan and a total size of 14.4 billion yuan [10] Capital Flows - On October 20, significant net inflows were observed in broad-based ETFs, including the SSE 50 ETF (510050) and CSI 300 ETF (510300) [12] - Despite some declines in gold-related ETFs, there was still active capital inflow into several gold ETFs [12]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **AI industry** and its current market dynamics, particularly in the context of the U.S. stock market and technology sector [1][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustment and Investment Strategy** - Short-term market adjustments lack sufficient momentum, with a clear direction towards global economic recovery and loose monetary policies. Investors are advised to avoid panic selling and patiently wait for bottom-fishing opportunities, gradually increasing their positions [1][4]. 2. **Growth and Self-Controlled Sectors** - Priority should be given to growth sectors and self-controlled areas, such as **AI software and AI chips**, which are expected to see higher performance growth next year compared to this year. Other areas of interest include emotional consumption, traditional sectors like silicon materials and coal, and large financial sectors [1][4]. 3. **AI Industry Bubble Assessment** - The AI industry currently exhibits some level of bubble, but it is comparable to the high levels seen in 2002, rather than the peak of the 2000 tech bubble. There remains significant potential for further growth in the AI market [1][5]. 4. **Performance of U.S. Tech Sector** - Leading companies in the U.S. tech sector are performing well, with no significant underperformance noted. Although there are signs of economic recession, it has not reached a trend-level decline. The valuation of U.S. stocks is not excessively high compared to global markets, reducing the likelihood of a deep correction or bubble burst [1][6]. 5. **Growth Sector Resilience** - There is a low risk of a collapse in the growth sector. Key segments, such as battery cells, show strong growth potential with no significant downward turning points. Both revenue and profit are on a continuous upward trajectory, indicating strong investment value [1][7]. 6. **Domestic Computing Power Market** - The continuous rise in expectations for the domestic computing power market suggests that the market previously underestimated the performance of the tech sector. This reflects an increasing expectation of the industry's ceiling, indicating that the tech industry is still in an upward trend [1][8]. 7. **Market Style Transition** - The current economic and policy environment does not support a switch to value style investing. Growth fundamentals are more favorable, and the government appears to be supportive of the stock market, suggesting that growth style will continue to dominate [2][9][11]. 8. **Future Market Structure Changes** - After stabilization, the growth style is expected to remain dominant, but there may be rotations within growth sectors. Current economic trends, policy stimuli, and government attitudes towards the stock market suggest that a shift to other styles is unlikely [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - The market is currently influenced by geopolitical factors, including potential meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders, which may affect market movements leading up to the end of the month [3][4]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious but optimistic outlook for the tech sector, particularly in AI and related fields, with expectations of sustained growth and investment opportunities [1][6][8].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3900 points for the first time in ten years, marking the third occurrence in its history [1][2] - Historical patterns suggest that after surpassing 3900 points, the market tends to experience significant upward momentum, as seen in 2007 and 2015 [2][3][4] Economic Cycle Analysis - The article discusses a cyclical pattern in the economy, indicating that high points in the stock market occur approximately every ten years, driven by economic cycles [5][7] - The current market surge is linked to a new round of technological investments, particularly following the introduction of the AI model DeepSeek-R1, which has disrupted the market [11][12][13] Policy Shifts - A notable policy shift is highlighted with the introduction of the concept of a financial powerhouse in 2024, which will be a key goal in the 15th Five-Year Plan [15] - The article emphasizes the importance of wealth replacement and the transition from manufacturing and urbanization to a focus on finance and technology [16][17] Market Growth Potential - The current ratio of capital market value to GDP in China is approximately 0.7, indicating significant growth potential compared to the ideal ratio of 1:1 to 1:1.2 [22][26] - Projections suggest that by 2040, China's GDP could reach 350 trillion yuan, with the stock market potentially growing to 400 trillion yuan, representing a fourfold increase over 15 years [26][27] Long-term Market Outlook - The article posits that if the growth trajectory continues, the A-share market could experience a long-term bullish trend, with a potential fourfold increase over the next 15 years [29]

Group 1 - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market rebounded to $4.6 billion in September, the highest monthly figure since November 2024, driven primarily by passive funds [1][3] - Year-to-date, passive funds have cumulatively flowed into China amounting to $18 billion, surpassing last year's total of $7 billion [3] - Over 90% of investors surveyed by Morgan Stanley plan to increase their exposure to the Chinese market, marking a new high since 2021 [3] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector has seen significant investment, with active managers increasing their holdings in this area, while reducing positions in insurance and durable goods [6] - Semiconductor stocks, particularly SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, have experienced substantial price increases, with SMIC rising over 12% on October 2 [6] - The semiconductor industry reported a revenue of 353.03 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.34% [7] Group 3 - The AI chip sector is expected to thrive, with a complete integration of the domestic AI industry chain from upstream to downstream [7] - The second half of the year is typically a period of intensive technology releases and product iterations in the domestic tech sector, particularly in semiconductors and AI applications [7] - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of policy support and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve benefiting the Hong Kong stock market [7]

Group 1 - Foreign investment in Chinese assets is increasing, with major international banks like Goldman Sachs and HSBC recommending an "overweight" position on A-shares [1][2] - A recent survey by HSBC indicates that over half of the respondents are optimistic about the A-share market, a significant increase from about one-third in June [1][2] - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from 1370 to 1480 points, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 10% [1] Group 2 - As of the end of Q2, northbound capital's total market value reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of over 2% from the end of Q1 [2] - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net increased their holdings in domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, with significant inflows in May and June totaling $18.8 billion [2] Group 3 - Multiple factors are boosting investor confidence, including policy support and a favorable economic outlook [3] - China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with rapid advancements in industries such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine [3] Group 4 - Long-term capital inflows are a key reason for foreign optimism towards Chinese assets, supported by domestic institutions like insurance and pension funds [4] - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to further attract funds into Asian markets [4] Group 5 - Investor interest in the A-share market has significantly increased, driven by ample liquidity and accelerated technological innovation [5] - With households holding substantial additional savings (5% of GDP), there is potential for further revaluation in innovative sectors like robotics [5] Group 6 - The ongoing capital market reforms and opening up are crucial for attracting foreign investment in Chinese assets [6][7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to expedite key measures for capital market openness by 2025, including optimizing the QFII system [6][7]