（文章来源：人民日报） 中日两国一衣带水，互为重要近邻。中日经济利益和产业链供应链深度交融，为促进两国及地区和平、 发展、繁荣、稳定发挥了积极作用。然而，近期日本现职领导人公然发表涉台错误言论，粗暴干涉中国 内政，破坏中日关系政治根基，性质极其恶劣，影响极其严重，令原本疲弱的日本经济雪上加霜。 结构矛盾叠加短期冲击令日本经济内外交困。日本经济复苏之路本就艰难脆弱，内需疲软、创新乏力、 老龄化少子化等深层问题难以破解；政府债务规模高达国内生产总值（GDP）的2.5倍左右、常年居主 要经济体首位，挤压宏观政策空间；受关税冲击影响，2025年三季度日本不变价GDP环比折年下降 2.3%，再度亮起"红灯"。日本现职领导人错误言论引发中日关系紧张，更是加剧各方面对日本经济悲观 预期。机构预测，仅旅游业所受影响就将导致日本未来一年经济损失约2.2万亿日元（约合142亿美 元）、GDP减少0.36%。对于日本内阁批准21.3万亿日元（约合1374亿美元）的经济刺激方案，市场并 不认可，日本国债收益率屡创新高、日元汇率明显走低、日经225指数一度抹去新任首相上任以来的全 部涨幅，股市、债市、汇市"三杀"局面令"抛售日本"预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government aims to manage government bonds effectively through close communication with the market, as stated by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki [1] Group 1: Government Bond Management - The Japanese government will focus on closely monitoring market trends to manage government bond yields, which are influenced by various factors, including those outside Japan [1] - Minister Suzuki emphasized the importance of communication with the market to ensure proper management of government bonds [1] Group 2: Fiscal Sustainability - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assessed Japan's latest economic stimulus plan and indicated that Japan's fiscal situation is sustainable [1]

刚刚，日本3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，10年期国债收益率一度达到了1.85%，各期限国债全线暴涨， 这对应的就是日本国债的全线暴跌。与此同时，美股期指全线杀跌，日经指数大幅跳水。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，可能与日本息口和美联储的异动有关。日本央行行长植田和男 表示，将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊。而关于美联储主席人事问题亦被市场关注， 甚至再度波及美联储的独立性。 全线崩跌 日本国债市场掀起大浪。该国3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，对应的是其国债暴跌。日本10年期国债收 益率上升5个基点至1.85%。日本2年期国债收益率升至2008年以来最高水平。与此同时，日经指数一度 暴跌近2%。 （原标题：刚刚全线暴跌！黑天鹅突袭！日本国债又崩了 冲击有多大？） 日本国债又崩了！ 掉期市场当前预计日本央行在12月19日公布政策决定时加息的可能性约为62%，到2026年1月的会议上 这一可能性将升至近90%，而两周前市场预计12月加息的可能性仅为30%。 此外，日本财务省计划增加短期债务发行，为日本首相高市早苗的经济刺激方案筹集资金，其中2年期 和5年期国债各增加3000亿日元（约19.2亿美元） ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, with a sharp rise in yields leading to a corresponding drop in bond prices, influenced by potential changes in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The yield on Japan's 3-month government bonds surged over 34%, while the 10-year bond yield reached 1.85%, marking a notable increase [1][2]. - The 2-year government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2008, indicating a broader trend of increasing yields across various maturities [2]. - The market is anticipating a 62% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in its December 19 policy meeting, with expectations rising to nearly 90% by January 2026 [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while there are signs of weakness in the global economy, Japan's economy is gradually recovering, albeit with some soft spots [2]. - Ueda emphasized the importance of wage negotiations and indicated that if economic forecasts are met, a rate hike could be on the table, although the overall financial environment would remain accommodative [2]. Group 3: Government Debt Issuance - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to increase short-term debt issuance to fund Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic stimulus plan, adding 300 billion yen (approximately 1.92 billion USD) each for 2-year and 5-year bonds, and increasing treasury bills by 6.3 trillion yen [3]. Group 4: Market Impact - The turmoil in Japan's bond market has negatively impacted U.S. stock futures, leading to a broad sell-off, while Asian markets also showed weakness [4]. - However, the weakening U.S. dollar may mitigate the impact on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as it supports commodity prices and enhances liquidity in emerging markets [4]. - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in December, with potential volatility, while Hong Kong stocks may experience a gradual upward trend influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve [4].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 2-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 2008, indicating market expectations of a closer interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Bond Market - The 2-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1% [1] - The market is currently pricing in a 62% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan during the policy decision on December 19, which is expected to rise to nearly 90% by the January meeting [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase short-term debt issuance, adding 300 billion yen each for 2-year and 5-year bonds, and 6.3 trillion yen in treasury bills [1] Group 2: Currency Market - The yen appreciated against the dollar, rising by 0.3% to 155.77 [1] Group 3: Economic Policy - The increase in debt issuance is aimed at funding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic stimulus plan, which is anticipated to put pressure on short-term Japanese government bonds [1]

Group 1 - Trump plans to revoke Biden's executive orders signed with an automatic signature pen, claiming these documents account for 92% of Biden's total signed orders, and accuses operators of acting illegally [1] - Japan's cabinet approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 117 billion USD) for the largest economic stimulus plan post-pandemic restrictions, with 11.7 trillion yen financed through new government bonds [1] - CME experienced a data center failure that caused a global disruption in derivatives trading for several hours, affecting a wide range of markets, with the interruption lasting longer than a similar incident in 2019 [1] Group 2 - South Korea's government tax revenue reached 330.7 trillion won from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with corporate tax revenue surging by 22.2 trillion won to 80.4 trillion won, benefiting from improved corporate profitability since 2024 [2] - As of the end of October, South Korea's foreign currency deposits stood at 101.83 billion USD, a month-on-month decrease of 5.26 billion USD, marking the largest single-month decline since January 2024, primarily due to corporate debt repayments and increased overseas investments by pension funds [2] - India's GDP grew by 8.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding expectations of 7.4% and the previous value of 7.8%, but the fiscal deficit reached 52.6% of the fiscal year's target, highlighting the tension between economic growth and fiscal sustainability [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.61% to 47,716.42 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.54% to 6,849.09 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.65% to 23,365.69 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.59% to 4,256.4 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures surged by 6.06% to 57.085 USD per ounce, reaching a historical high [3] - The main contracts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell by 1.05% to 58.48 USD per barrel, and Brent crude oil dropped by 0.87% to 62.32 USD per barrel [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in government bonds to fund a new round of economic stimulus measures, addressing the funding gap created by the recently announced large-scale economic strategy [1] Group 1: Economic Measures - The large-scale economic strategy involves a supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025, which is expected to be finalized in a cabinet meeting on the 28th and submitted to the ongoing extraordinary Diet session for approval [1] - The government aims to secure support from opposition parties to strive for passage by December [1] Group 2: Fiscal Outlook - Japan's estimated national tax revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is approximately 80.7 trillion yen, an increase of about 2.9 trillion yen from previous estimates [1] - Despite the increase in tax revenue, it remains insufficient to cover the significantly expanded costs of the economic measures, indicating that the government's fiscal operations will continue to rely on borrowing through government bonds [1]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Predictions - The Australian National Bank states that the easing cycle of the Reserve Bank of Australia has ended, with potential interest rate hikes considered in the first half of 2026 due to nearing capacity constraints in the economy [1] - Fitch Ratings warns that Japan's new economic stimulus plan, which accounts for 3.4% of GDP, may threaten its A/stable sovereign credit rating due to high debt levels and structural risks [1] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that political factors may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until January 2026, rather than December [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Spectra Markets indicates that if Kevin Hassett, a proponent of rate cuts, becomes the next Federal Reserve Chair, it would negatively impact the US dollar, as market expectations for rate cuts continue to rise [2] - The Swedish National Debt Office has significantly revised its fiscal deficit expectations for 2025-2027, leading to a 33% increase in government bond issuance in 2026 [3] - The UK’s autumn budget has stabilized the bond market, with a slight decrease in five-year sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, indicating a temporary easing in market concerns over default risk [3] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Retail Outlook - GfK and NIM's survey shows a slight recovery in Germany's consumer climate index, but overall retail sales growth is expected to be modest at 1.4% year-on-year during the holiday season [2] - Analysts warn that if Sweden's nominal GDP growth falls below 2%, the debt-to-GDP ratio may approach the 45% warning line within three years, indicating limited fiscal space [2] Group 4: AI Hardware Market Trends - Macquarie Research predicts that 2026 will mark a significant increase in demand for consumer-grade AI hardware, driven by companies like Apple, Google, and Xiaomi integrating hardware and AI software [3]

1. 公开市场操作 中国银行间市场周五资金面继续转松，主要期限回购利率悉数回落，其中存款类机构隔夜回购利率再跌超 4bp 至 1.32% 附近。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统 上，隔夜报价降至 1.3% 低点，且供给尚可；非银机构质押信用债融入隔夜资金，报价亦降至 1.35%-1.4% 左右。交易员指出，税期已过，叠加 央行 公开 市场持续净投放，流动性恢复偏松态势，随着月末将近，市场对 央行 买债预期再起，关注后续 央行 动向。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.91% 。 // 债市综述 // （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.64% 位置，较上日持平。 央行 公告称， 11 月 21 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3750 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 3750 亿元，中标量 3750 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2128 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净投放 1622 亿元。当周实现净投放 13540 亿元。因当周还有 1200 亿元国库现金定存到 ...

Group 1 - The interest rate market is still pricing in no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The Japanese Prime Minister indicated plans to issue new bonds for economic funding, but the total bond issuance will be lower than last year [1] - The Japanese Cabinet approved an economic stimulus package exceeding 21 trillion yen [1] Group 2 - SoftBank issued 46 billion yen in bonds, continuing its record-breaking bond issuance trend [1] - Vanke plans to further divest businesses and assets with low strategic relevance to improve cash flow and debt structure [1] - 15 newly issued technology innovation bond ETFs this year have each exceeded 10 billion yuan in scale, with the total bond ETF scale increasing by over 540 billion yuan this year [1] Group 3 - Insurance companies have issued over 70 billion yuan in bonds this year, with perpetual bonds becoming the main source of capital replenishment [1] - China Reinsurance has been approved to issue 4 billion yuan in 10-year redeemable capital replenishment bonds [1] - The Bond Connect Northbound trading recorded a transaction volume of 572.3 billion yuan in October, with an average daily transaction of 31.8 billion yuan [1] Group 4 - Wuhan Holdings successfully issued the second phase of its 2025 technology innovation perpetual corporate bonds [1]