在白银与黄金出现巨大涨幅的背后，一方面与美联储重启降息周期，并可能引发全球通胀再次抬升的预期有关；另一方面与地缘局势持续紧张，全球资金避 险情绪持续升温有关。此外，美元指数持续下跌、全球央行持续加码黄金等，这些因素都对金价构成了积极的提振影响。 美元信用体系发生动摇，引发全球资金的加速流动，这也是引发大量资金流向白银黄金渠道的主因之一。实际上，从近几年美元与黄金占全球外汇储备的比 例变化，我们可以看到美元的竞争力在持续下降，越来越多的资金流向黄金，促使黄金在全球外汇储备中的实际占比持续提升。 随着CME的接连出手，结合26年美联储降息预期有所降温，对黄金这一类非生息资产而言，构成了或多或少的抛售压力。在白银黄金价格大跌的背后，市 场资金已经意识到白银黄金价格已经处于阶段性的高位水平，CME的接连出手，也是白银黄金触顶的主要信号。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME）在一个月内连续两次上调了白银保证金，在最近一次的出手中，CME上调履约保证金的品种范围扩大至黄金、锂等多类金属期 货品种，可见这一次的影响力更大，白银黄金价格随之大跌。 CME上调多个品种的履约保证金，为何会引发白银黄金价格大跌？从主要原因分析，当履约保证金 ...

2025年12月，全球资本市场的历史性转折点被一组数据刻下印记：黄金价格突破4500美元/盎司，全年涨幅超过70%；白银价格飙升至79美元/盎司，年内暴 涨174%；铂金涨幅突破150%，创下自1987年有记录以来的最大年度涨幅。 与此同时，美元资产配置比例降至近20年最低点，加拿大魁北克储蓄投资集团等机构宣布削减占其组合40% 的美国资产，转而增配欧洲市场。 2025年初，特朗普重返白宫后推出的"对等关税"政策，成为美元资产信任崩塌的导火索。4月2日关税政策宣布当天，美国市场出现罕见的"股债汇三杀"，道 琼斯指数单日下跌3.2%，10年期美债收益率突破5%，美元指数跌破100关口。 这种波动并非孤立事件——7月，美国再度对日韩等国加征40% 关税时，亚洲与欧洲市场反应平淡，美股却应声下跌，标志着市场对美国政策的敏感度已超 过外部风险。 美元信用的动摇更深层次源于债务与货币政策的失控。美国联邦政府债务规模在2025年突破38.5万亿美元，债务年增速高达3万亿美元，利息支出甚至超过 国防预算。为缓解债务压力，特朗普公开要求美联储大幅降息，甚至宣称"任何不同意我的人，永远不会成为美联储主席"。 这种政治干预直接冲 ...

接近年底，人民币汇率强势破7，创下15个月以来的新高，根据数据显示，自今年4月以来，人民币的累计甚至幅度达到了6%，打破了两年多的震荡格局， 然而也将一个问题摆在了投资者面前，是人民币更强了，还是美元更虚了？ 实际上，二者皆有，而这其中，美元更虚或占上风，美元的虚，离不开狂飙的美债。 债务规模呈现极度扩张态势：当前，美国联邦政府债务总额已突破38万亿美元关口，且其增长速率极为迅猛，而从经济行为模式来看，这类似于个人过度依 赖信用卡消费的情形——债务余额持续攀升，利息负担日益加重，而同期收入增长却近乎停滞。 更关键的是，美国实行联邦制，在此体制下，诸多州政府正通过立法举措或公开声明的方式，明确表达其不愿为联邦政府的债务问题承担连带责任的态度， 这也就意味着，当前的美国呈现出一种颇为特殊的态势：联邦政府的债务规模持续攀升，而地方政府却在竭力"厘清权责边界"。 不过对于地方政府来说，并不是不想，而是心有余而力不足，实际上，美国诸多地方政府亦已深陷严峻的财政窘境，其财政困境程度丝毫不逊色于英国—— 目前英国已有半数地方政府宣告破产。 但问题的关键在于，美元贬值的代价并非局限于美国本土，而是会向全球范围外溢，这会导致全 ...

2025年末，全球贵金属市场迎来历史性行情。 12月24日，黄金价格突破4500美元/盎司，创下自1979年以来的第二大年度涨幅；白银价格突破72美元/ 盎司，年内涨幅超过黄金；现货铂金历史上首次突破2300美元/盎司，年内累涨超150%，为1987年开始 汇编相关数据以来的最大年度涨幅；钯金及铜价亦同步大幅上扬。 然而，在这轮资产价格显著拉升的背后，经济学家警示美元信用体系面临严峻考验，而"银比油贵"这一 罕见现象时隔45年再次出现，更引发市场对经济前景的深度担忧。 供需失衡 黄金作为传统避险资产，年内涨幅已创下自1979年石油危机以来的第二大历史纪录。 在地缘政治风险反复、全球宏观不确定性居高不下的背景下，黄金重新成为全球资产配置中的"压舱 石"。 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师乔.卡瓦托尼指出，央行持续购金是支撑金价的重要力量。在他看来，当 前国际环境下，黄金不依赖任何单一政府信用，作为价值储藏工具正获得结构性青睐，这一趋势并非短 期现象。 相较之下，白银的涨势更为凌厉。自2022年低点以来，白银价格累计涨幅已超过三倍。 高盛在研究报告中指出，白银与黄金价格的高度联动，反映出投资资金在贵金属板块内的同步流动 ...

在这一轮黄金牛市中，地缘局势反复促使黄金避险情绪的持续升温，成为推高黄金价格的一个主要因素。在美联储步入降息周期的大环境下，全球通胀有逐 渐抬升的预期，作为抵御通胀的"硬通货"，黄金成为了主要的受益品种。 在本轮黄金牛市中，全球主要央行持续增持黄金，成为了黄金市场的主要买盘，推高了黄金价格。以我国央行为例，已经连续13个月增持黄金。在今年11月 末，我国黄金储备约为7412万盎司，环比增加了3万盎司，在央行连续13个月增持黄金的背后，既反映出全球资产配置的需求，也体现出增加黄金储备的战 略意义。 从全球主要央行持续增持黄金的举动，到金价接连创出历史新高，这一系列现象背后，反映出当前全球资产配置结构正在发生深刻性的变化。 国际金价在不经意间突破了4500美元关口，2025年以来国际金价累计涨幅超过了70%，这一个涨幅跑赢了全球绝大多数的资产。2026年将至，黄金能否持续 保持强势，继续领跑全球资产？ 这一轮黄金牛市，并不局限于2025年。从2016年以来，黄金价格开始步入新一轮的上涨周期。在2025年之前，黄金已经连涨了两年时间。其中，2023年黄金 价格上涨了13.45%、2024年黄金价格上涨了27.39% ...

一、美联储政策：内部分歧加剧，滞胀风险成为核心关切 2025年12月，中信保诚基金经理顾凡丁在投资者分享会中，围绕"美联储降息展望和黄金资产配置"展开 深度解读。会议从美联储政策的内部分歧、黄金的短中长期逻辑，到大宗商品在通胀周期中的配置框 架，层层剖析当前市场核心矛盾与资产布局机遇。以下为分享内容精编： 顾凡丁指出，近期市场对美联储降息的预期呈现"过山车"式波动，其背后是经济数据、政策博弈与政治 压力的多重碰撞： 二、黄金：短中长期逻辑共振，货币体系重塑支撑长期韧性 Q1：黄金情绪"过热"，短期如何把握时机？ 针对黄金创历史新高后的配置价值，顾凡丁从三个维度论证其认为黄金仍可能是资产组合中的"压舱 石"： 顾凡丁：短期波动可能放大，或采取"定投+关键事件策略"，在议息会议前后可以根据自身的风险承受 能力并结合自己的投资目的、投资期限、投资经验、资产状况分批布局。 三、大宗商品：通胀周期下的战略配置，三层框架精耕细作 Q2：黄金涨幅已高，性价比是否不如白银和有色金属？ 对于大宗商品的配置意义，顾凡丁提出"Why-When-How"三层分析框架： 注：如上内容仅用于展示基金经理的投资思路和当前市场研判，不作为投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to gold prices rising above $4,100 per ounce, driven by ongoing challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] Group 1 - The long-term upward trend in gold prices remains intact, supported by multiple issues facing the U.S. government and persistent global geopolitical tensions [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in the market during subsequent pullbacks and to gradually accumulate positions [1] Group 2 - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are highlighted as potential investment options [1] - Gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain are also recommended for investors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in gold-related investments, particularly the gold stock ETF (517400), which rose by 4.55%, and the London spot gold price returning to $4,100 per ounce, indicating a V-shaped recovery in gold prices over the past two days [1] - The long-term drivers for gold prices remain unchanged, with factors such as the expectation of the Federal Reserve starting a rate-cutting cycle, increasing macroeconomic uncertainties overseas, and a global trend towards de-dollarization providing support for gold prices [1] - According to a Morgan Stanley report, global central banks are projected to net purchase 220 tons of gold by Q3 2025, reflecting a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase, while China's central bank has increased its gold reserves to 74.09 million ounces, marking the twelfth consecutive month of accumulation [1] Group 2 - Investors focusing on the gold sector are encouraged to consider gold fund ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400), with the former directly investing in physical gold and benefiting from tax advantages post-gold tax reform, while the latter is linked to the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Index, which exhibits high volatility and potential for greater returns during gold price increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price uptrend, which began in 2019, has lasted for six years with a cumulative increase of 219%, raising market concerns about future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - Gold has experienced three major uptrends since 1968, with the first from 1970 to 1980 (highest increase of 2323%) and the second from 2001 to 2012 (highest increase of 599%) [2]. - The current uptrend, starting in 2019, has shown a cumulative increase of 219% over six years, which is shorter in duration compared to previous cycles [3]. Group 2: Monetary Attributes - The dollar has depreciated nearly 100% against gold since 1970, with a 35% decline in 2025 alone, driven by increasing fiscal deficits and monetary supply [9]. - The relationship between the dollar index and gold prices has been negative, with the dollar index dropping nearly 10 percentage points since 2025, benefiting gold prices [9]. - Economic and political uncertainties have increased the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index significantly since early 2025, impacting the dollar's credibility [11]. Group 3: Commodity Attributes - Central bank gold purchases have surged from 255 tons in 2020 to 1089 tons in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 44%, increasing their share of total demand from 5% to 22% [15]. - Jewelry demand has decreased from approximately 50% before 2020 to 32% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [15]. - Global gold reserves have increased significantly, with European countries showing high reserve ratios, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices [15]. Group 4: Financial Attributes - The traditional negative correlation between real interest rates and gold prices has weakened since 2021, as high inflation distorts real interest rates and enhances gold's anti-inflation properties [22]. - Real interest rates have increased by 213% during the current cycle, contrasting with previous cycles where they remained near zero or negative [38]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to gold prices is approaching historical averages, suggesting that gold may be fully valued relative to equities, yet still has room for growth compared to previous cycles [22]. Group 5: Key Variables for Future Price Movements - The report identifies three critical variables that will influence future gold prices: geopolitical risks, growth in gold reserves, and changes in real interest rates [25][32]. - The geopolitical risk index has risen by 72% since 2019, reflecting heightened global tensions due to events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [28][31]. - Global gold reserves have increased by 167% during the current cycle, a significant rise compared to previous periods, indicating a strategic shift among central banks [35].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has led to increased market expectations for further rate cuts due to evident signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. [1] Economic Indicators - A series of data indicates a clear slowdown in the U.S. economy, prompting market speculation about additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The potential resolution of the U.S. government "shutdown" crisis is expected to improve overseas liquidity [1] Gold Market Dynamics - Strong physical demand for gold persists, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] - Short-term gold and silver prices may continue to rebound, influenced by upcoming economic data releases [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The U.S. monetary policy remains in a loose cycle, which may exacerbate stagflation risks [1] - The expansion of U.S. government debt could negatively impact the global dollar credit system, maintaining the long-term investment value in precious metals [1]