Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that while USD stablecoins can enhance the functionality and usage scenarios of the dollar, thereby reinforcing its position in the international monetary system, they do not fundamentally resolve the underlying issues of the U.S. dollar's twin deficits and may exacerbate risks in the long term [1] Group 1: Nature of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are essentially "on-chain" dollars, with issuers earning a "spread" [2] - They are designed to address volatility in the cryptocurrency market and improve payment efficiency, but their reliance on fiat and crypto assets for collateral reflects a centralized characteristic [2] - The market is highly concentrated, with USDT and USDC accounting for approximately 90% of stablecoin trading volume and about 80% of market capitalization [2] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The regulatory frameworks for stablecoins in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong share a common structure but differ in specifics [3] - The U.S. GENIUS Act focuses on payment-type stablecoins, requiring 100% cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds as reserves [3] - The EU's MiCA Act aims for broader regulation of crypto assets, emphasizing risk prevention and financial market stability [3] - Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations are characterized by strict approval processes and high reserve coverage, balancing financial innovation with stability [3] Group 3: Macro Impact - Stablecoins enhance liquidity similar to fiat currencies, increasing the speed of money circulation but posing new challenges for central banks in liquidity management [4] - Potential effects include the creation of additional liquidity through lower reserve ratios and the emergence of a "shadow" banking system led by stablecoins [4]

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Overview - As of July 2025, the total market capitalization of stablecoins reached $260 billion, with over 98% being dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC[2][15] - Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) dominate the market, accounting for approximately 86% of the total stablecoin market[12][15] - The stablecoin market has shown strong growth, with a 22% increase in the first half of 2025 alone[15] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoins have created new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bonds, with Tether being the seventh-largest U.S. Treasury buyer globally, holding over $120 billion[3][21] - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoin issuers maintain a 1:1 reserve with high-quality liquid assets, primarily short-term U.S. Treasury securities[3][17] - The focus on short-term bonds may exacerbate the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as stablecoins have minimal impact on long-term bonds[3][37] Group 3: Strengthening the Dollar's Position - Stablecoins have not undermined the dollar's global dominance; instead, they have enhanced its efficiency and usage, particularly in high-inflation countries[4][51] - The regulatory framework in the U.S. and Hong Kong supports the growth of stablecoins, with the latter allowing multi-currency pegging, potentially challenging the dollar's supremacy[5][62] - Stablecoins facilitate cross-border transactions, significantly reducing costs and increasing the speed of transfers compared to traditional banking methods[58] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The reliance on stablecoins poses risks, including potential loss of control over the dollar's monetary policy and vulnerabilities highlighted by events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident[4][60] - The long-term credit risk of the U.S. dollar remains a concern, as increasing national debt could undermine confidence in stablecoins[5][60] - Regulatory changes and market volatility present ongoing risks to the stability and growth of the stablecoin market[68]

Group 1: Core Argument - The essence of capitalism's self-regulation is a misinterpretation; it is a product of class struggle rather than benevolence from the ruling class [2][3] - The welfare state and labor rights are not improvements from capitalism but rather concessions made under pressure from the working class [2][3] - The current state of capitalism is more cunning and financialized than in the 19th century, with unresolved contradictions accumulating globally [4][5] Group 2: Analysis of Financial Systems - The U.S. stock market is characterized as a casino of virtual capital, reflecting the deepening contradictions of capitalism [3][4] - The U.S. national debt is described as the largest form of virtual capital, relying on the exploitation of global labor [6][7] - The proposed "dollar stablecoin" is seen as a misguided attempt to salvage a hollow financial system, leading to further instability [7][8] Group 3: Implications of Dollar Stablecoin - The dollar stablecoin represents a new form of financial colonization, creating a dependency on U.S. financial systems in the digital realm [12][14] - It perpetuates a hidden global seigniorage, extracting value from global users while offering little in return [18][19] - The stablecoin system enhances financial surveillance and control, undermining the autonomy of individuals and nations [20][21] Group 4: Global Economic Dynamics - The dollar stablecoin threatens the monetary sovereignty of developing countries, exacerbating financial instability and inequality [21][22] - A call for international solidarity among the working class is emphasized as a necessary response to the challenges posed by the dollar stablecoin [22][23] - The ultimate solution lies in the abolition of capitalism itself, as monetary systems will always serve as tools of class oppression under capitalism [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump establishes a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S., aiming to extend the global influence of the U.S. dollar in the digital realm [1][4]. Group 1: Motivations Behind the Stablecoin Legislation - The legislation is driven by four main considerations: personal interests of Trump, national interests of the U.S., the issue of U.S. national debt, and the promotion of digital financial infrastructure [3][4]. - Trump's personal interest is highlighted by his shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies post-2020 election, as he seeks funding through NFTs and support from the crypto community [3]. - The U.S. national interest is served by reinforcing the dominance of the dollar in the international market, with stablecoins currently holding a significant market share [3][4]. - The stablecoin market, with reserves exceeding $250 billion, is projected to potentially reach $2 trillion in the next 3-5 years, which could significantly impact U.S. Treasury yields and government interest costs [4]. - The development of stablecoins is expected to enhance blockchain technology and digital finance in the U.S., positioning the country favorably against emerging market central bank digital currencies [4]. Group 2: Impact on the Monetary System - The impact of stablecoins on the existing monetary system is expected to be gradual, with no immediate significant changes, as the current global monetary order remains dollar-centric [6]. - Long-term, stablecoins could disrupt the monetary system as their integration with real-world economies deepens [6]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - If the regulatory framework of the "Genius Act" is effectively implemented, the risk of shadow banking may be mitigated due to the requirement for 100% reserves [7]. - However, the interconnectedness of stablecoins with cryptocurrencies poses risks, as market downturns in cryptocurrencies could lead to systemic issues [7]. - Emerging markets may face challenges from a potential "dollar-dominated + multinational corporations" model, which could threaten financial security and monetary sovereignty [9][10].

Group 1 - The passage of Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill is almost inevitable, as failure to pass it would lead to a halt in U.S. government operations and a collapse of the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit system [1] - Both the Democratic and Republican parties are attempting to leverage the bill for personal interests despite their public disagreements [1] - The current situation indicates a failure in efforts to control carbon emissions and a stagnation in the development of alternative energy, exacerbating wealth inequality in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The current government faces two urgent issues: maintaining operational funding through continued issuance of Treasury bonds and addressing the credibility of the dollar and U.S. debt [3] - Trump's strategies include raising the debt ceiling, using ambiguous statements to create market volatility, and issuing a dollar stablecoin linked to U.S. debt to alleviate the debt crisis [5] - The potential outcomes of these strategies could determine whether the U.S. remains a leading power or declines to a second or third-tier status [7]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of stablecoins reflects the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency rather than being a driving factor for increased demand for US Treasury bonds in the short term [1][2][5] Group 1: Stablecoin Growth and US Treasury Demand - Citigroup's report indicates that the growth of stablecoins will not significantly boost the demand for US Treasuries in the short term [1][5] - The demand for US Treasuries may actually decrease due to the diversion of funds from bank deposits and money market funds to stablecoins [5][8] - If stablecoins begin to offer interest, it could lead to larger growth but may also divert funds from existing holders [5][8] Group 2: Sources of Stablecoin Growth - The source of stablecoin growth is crucial; if it comes from the transfer of funds from money market funds or other US Treasury holding instruments, it does not constitute net new demand for Treasuries [5][8] - Citigroup estimates that the potential long-term size of the stablecoin market could reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, with only a portion contributing to net new Treasury demand [8] Group 3: Dollar Dominance and De-dollarization Trends - Citigroup believes that the dominance of the US dollar as a reserve currency will continue, independent of stablecoin developments [9] - The euro is seen as the only potential long-term competitor to the dollar, but the dollar is expected to maintain its dominant position until at least 2070 [9] - The relative issuance trends of non-US stablecoins will serve as an interesting indicator of changes in the dollar's dominant status [9]

Group 1 - The uncertainty of US tariff policies and expectations of economic slowdown have heightened market panic and increased volatility in international financial markets since 2025 [1] - The share of non-US dollar currencies, such as the Renminbi and Euro, in sovereign reserves is continuously rising, and their use in trade settlements is becoming more widespread [1] - Experts at the Summer Davos Forum indicated that the world is undergoing a "de-dollarization" process, but it is still far from challenging the dollar's dominance [1] Group 2 - The absolute dominance of the US dollar has weakened, but it remains the leading currency; challenges from non-dollar sovereign currencies are still premature [2] - Current US tariff and immigration policies may have long-term impacts, increasing trade costs and reducing consumption, investment, and merger intentions [2] - Stablecoins are gaining significant attention in the global financial community, with the US potentially using stablecoin development to reinforce the dollar's international status [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of the global financial and monetary order, emphasizing the challenges faced by the US dollar and the implications for asset allocation strategies in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Dollar and Monetary Policy - The article highlights the "Triffin Dilemma" faced by the US dollar, exacerbated by fluctuating tariff policies under Trump, indicating a mid-term rebalancing pressure on dollar assets [1]. - The introduction of dollar stablecoins represents a dual effort by the US government to both centralize emerging cryptocurrencies and tacitly accept the decentralization of traditional dollars [3][5]. - Despite the emergence of dollar stablecoins, the article warns that they may not provide the expected stability, suggesting a continued strategic outlook on decentralized digital currencies like Bitcoin and diversified stablecoins [6]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The article identifies key areas for the internationalization of the Renminbi, including trade settlement, currency swap liquidity, offshore bond financing, and the development of offshore financial markets, particularly in Hong Kong [8]. - It notes that Hong Kong's position as the largest offshore Renminbi market is crucial for providing high-quality Renminbi-denominated assets, enhancing its strategic importance [8]. - The current level of Renminbi internationalization is deemed to have significant room for improvement, especially when compared to China's GDP and trade volume on a global scale [9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - The article recommends focusing on non-dollar assets, gold, and Bitcoin as alternative asset revaluation opportunities, particularly during periods of dollar depreciation [10]. - For tactical asset allocation over the next 3-6 months, it suggests a standard allocation to equities, underweighting oil and US Treasuries, while overweighting gold; and for the next 6-12 months, it anticipates potential trend opportunities in global equities and risk assets like copper [10]. - It also points out that the allocation of funds in Chinese, Japanese, and European stock markets remains low, indicating significant potential for growth, while US stock market allocations are at high levels and may decrease [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of the global financial and monetary order, emphasizing the challenges faced by the US dollar and the potential for rebalancing in dollar assets due to ongoing trade policies and the emergence of stablecoins [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar and Stablecoins - The essence of dollar stablecoins reflects the US government's effort to re-centralize emerging cryptocurrencies while tacitly allowing the decentralization of traditional dollars [3][5]. - Dollar credit is under pressure, and the stability of dollar stablecoins is uncertain, leading to a strategic outlook favoring decentralized digital currencies like Bitcoin and diversified stablecoins [6]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - Future directions for the internationalization of the Renminbi include trade settlement, currency swap liquidity, offshore bond financing, and the development of offshore financial markets, particularly in Hong Kong, which is positioned as the largest offshore Renminbi market [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - The article highlights the importance of re-evaluating non-dollar assets, gold, and Bitcoin as alternative investment opportunities during periods of dollar depreciation [10]. - Tactical asset allocation for the next 3-6 months suggests a standard allocation to equities, underweighting oil and US Treasuries, while overweighting gold; for the next 6-12 months, global equities and risk assets like copper may present trend opportunities [10].

Group 1 - The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies and expectations of economic slowdown have heightened market panic and increased volatility in international financial markets since 2025 [1] - The share of non-U.S. currencies like the Renminbi and Euro in sovereign reserves is rising, and their use in trade settlements is becoming more widespread [1] - Experts at the Summer Davos Forum indicated that the world is undergoing a "de-dollarization" process, but it is still far from challenging the dollar's dominance [1] Group 2 - U.S. economic growth may remain low for an extended period, with persistent productivity deficits and high inflation expected in the coming years [2] - Current tariff and immigration policies may have long-term impacts, such as increased trade costs and reduced willingness for consumption, investment, and mergers [2] - The absolute dominance of the dollar has weakened, but it still maintains a leading position; challenges from non-dollar sovereign currencies are premature [2] Group 3 - Stablecoins are gaining significant attention in the global financial community, with the U.S. potentially using stablecoin development to reinforce the dollar's international status [2] - The majority of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, which enhances the dollar's dominance in the stablecoin market [2] - To further promote the internationalization of the Renminbi, China may also consider developing a Renminbi stablecoin and needs to strengthen its bond market to enrich Renminbi assets [2]