中美元首级峰会顺利完成，双方能够达成共识，就说明彼此关切的议题都得到充分协商。然而，特朗普的"空军一号"尚未返回美本土之际，就接连传来两个 坏消息，不仅仅是中方早有准备，更重要的是美国内部也有人给他上眼药。这下，特朗普该如何是好？ 这番话掷地有声，美股直接跳水，而国际金价也闻声下跌。这对于特朗普而言，可不是个值得庆幸的消息，原本按照美国目前的通胀与非农就业数据来看， 美联储本就应该大幅降息，25个基点实在是吝啬，也很不过瘾。 这主要是因为美国的财政政策直接开打，而货币政策稳坐高台，这种差异让人们担心美国经济会有衰退的可能性。 再次，是特朗普精准捕捉到美企在拜登政府时期的高利率时代，借贷融资都非常困难，其中农业、制造业更甚，而以此对美联储进行施压，能获得部分企业 的支持，甚至还有变现的渠道。 只不过，无论是从法律规定，还是政治势力博弈来看，想要换掉鲍威尔，都是不现实的事情。 首先，在多数人的印象中，降息的最直接后果就是刺激经济增长，市面上流通的钱变多了。尤其是特朗普的基本盘都是MAGA，本身知识水平就有限，听 特朗普每天在社交平台上忽悠两句，自然就当成真理去听。 白宫与美联储的斗争，今年以来成为华尔街最关注的重 ...

早上好！先来看隔夜市场概况。 11月13日纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌0.54%，报4172.84美元/盎司，北京时间11月13日20:59刷新日高至 4245.23美元/盎司，北京时间11月14日02:23出现一波短线跳水——从4200美元/盎司关口跌至4145.55美 元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货跌0.96%，报4173.00美元/盎司。 截至今晨收盘，美股三大股指普跌，道指跌1.65%，纳指跌2.29%，标普跌1.65%。英伟达跌超3%，谷 歌跌超2%，特斯拉跌超6%，甲骨文跌超4%。热门中概股收盘普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.59%。 消息面上， 据新华社报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发言人朱莉·科扎克13日表示，美国联邦政府"停 摆"将对经济产生负面影响，预计今年四季度美国经济增速将低于此前预测的1.9%。 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，由于政府"停摆"，一个月内将仅公布就业数据，不公布失业率数据。他 预计美国第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速将因政府"停摆"而下降1.5个百分点。哈塞特还表示，看 不出有什么理由不降息。 美国短期利率衍生品合约显示，市场预期美联储在12月降息25个基点的可能性不足50%。 ...

对比经济分析师的预测与相关呼吁，围绕12月是否降息，联邦公开市场委员会成员间分歧明显。就在美 国总统特朗普试图影响美联储决策的背景下，亚特兰大联储银行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克12日意外宣布， 他将在本届任期结束时退休。 美国《纽约邮报》报道，博斯蒂克现年59岁，距美联储规定的强制退休年龄还有5年多时间。他有时倾 向于防范通胀为重的"鹰派"立场。 路透社12日公布的最新调查结果显示，80%的经济分析师预计美国联邦储备委员会12月将再次降息25个 基点，这一比例较上月略有上升。 在受访的105名经济分析师中，有84人预测，美联储联邦公开市场委员会将在12月连续第三次降息25个 基点，将联邦基金利率降至3.50%至3.75%区间；其余的21人预计利率不会变化。 在10月份降息25个基点后，美联储主席鲍威尔曾警告，12月降息并非"板上钉钉"。 另外，近半数经济分析师仍预计，下个季度利率将降至3.25%至3.50%区间。至于2026年年底联邦基金 利率将处于何种水平，受访者还没有明确的多数意见。 美国财政部长贝森特2日说，受高利率影响，美国经济部分领域可能已经陷入衰退。他再次呼吁美联储 加快降息步伐。 一个"猎头"委员会将 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metal market is currently under pressure from the US macro - situation but also supported by multiple risk factors. It is expected to continue its consolidation in the high - level range. The trading strategy recommends short - term traders to use a band - trading approach, and long - term investors to maintain a low - buying strategy. Meanwhile, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5][6][7] - The interference with the Fed's independence by Trump may push up inflation in the medium - long term, which is one of the main drivers of the precious metal market's rise since late August [19] - The US economic growth shows signs of weakness. The GDP growth has a certain degree of deception, the labor market is cooling, and inflation is fluctuating. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation stickiness and employment market risks [27][34][48] - The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction, which marks a key step in monetary policy shifting from "active tightening" to "neutral waiting and seeing" [51] - In the precious metal market, the supply and demand of gold are both increasing, with investment demand leading the growth. The supply of silver is relatively stable, and the demand is mainly affected by photovoltaic silver consumption [53][54][66] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis** - **US Macro - situation**: Fed officials have different views on the December interest - rate cut. Most are cautious, which has dampened market expectations for future interest - rate cuts. The US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, risks such as the government shutdown, tariff legal debates, and labor market risks support precious metals [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, gold ETFs had a net inflow of 54.9 tons. In Q3, there was a resonance in ETF, physical demand, and central bank gold - buying demand. Global gold ETF total holdings increased by 222 tons (a 30% quarter - on - quarter increase), bar and coin demand reached 316 tons (a 2.7% quarter - on - quarter increase), and global central bank gold - buying volume was 220 tons (a 28% quarter - on - quarter increase) [5] - **Futures Market**: Precious metals are currently under pressure and supported. The London gold range of $3900 - 4000, London silver range of $46 - 47 (Shanghai gold about 894 - 915 yuan, Shanghai silver about 11000 - 11200 yuan) show good support, but lack upward momentum. It is expected to continue to consolidate in the high - level range [6] - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Single - side Trading**: Short - term traders should mainly use a band - trading approach; long - term investors can continue the low - buying strategy [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Wait and see [7] Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Market Trading Focus**: The focus has shifted from tariff games to interest - rate cut games. Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, which may affect the Fed's independence and lead to medium - long - term inflation, driving up the precious metal market [19] - **US Economy - GDP**: The Q2 GDP growth was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.4%. However, the growth has a certain degree of deception. The net export item was abnormally high due to a large reduction in imports, and consumption and investment were weak [25][27] - **US Economy - Employment**: In August, the number of non - farm payrolls was 22,000, lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The labor market is cooling, and there are concerns about employment recession [34] - **US Economy - Inflation**: In September, the CPI data was better than expected, clearing the way for an October interest - rate cut. In August, the PPI was at a new low since June. Overall, inflation rebound is still moderate [45] - **Fed's Interest - rate Decision**: The October FOMC meeting dampened market expectations for an interest - rate cut. Powell's hawkish remarks led to a decline in the probability of a December interest - rate cut from over 90% to 70%. The future interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation and employment risks [46][47][48] - **Fed's Balance - sheet Reduction**: The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction. The balance of the RRP account is nearly exhausted, and the bank reserve account is approaching the neutral level. Ending the balance - sheet reduction marks a shift in monetary policy [51] Chapter 3: Precious Metal Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold - Supply and Demand**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total gold supply was 3717 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. The total demand also increased by 1% to 3717 tons. Investment demand dominated in Q3, and central bank gold - buying volume remained high, while jewelry consumption declined [53][54] - **Central Bank Gold - buying**: Since 2022, central banks around the world have been actively buying gold. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India are the main buyers. The reasons for gold - buying vary by country [63][64] - **Silver - Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31,573 tons, and the demand was 36,208 tons, with a supply - demand gap of 4634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2%, and the demand is expected to decrease slightly, with a narrowing supply - demand gap [66] - **Silver Inventory**: The LBMA silver inventory has dropped to a historical low, with about 24,000 tons, but the freely - tradable amount is only about 6000 tons. The silver lease rate soared in October and has initially eased [69]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have not led to a decrease in gold prices, which have reached new highs, indicating that monetary policy alone cannot resolve the underlying issues in the U.S. economy [1][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs has reported that international gold prices have entered a bull market, projecting prices to reach $6,000 per ounce, with current prices exceeding $3,770 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 2% increase [3][4]. - The domestic price of gold jewelry has surpassed 1,100 yuan per gram, while the spot trading price has exceeded 865 yuan per gram, marking unprecedented high prices [3][4]. - Gold prices have been adjusted for inflation, surpassing historical peaks from 45 years ago, with 31 new price highs recorded in 2025 alone [3][4]. Economic Implications - The continuous rise in gold prices suggests a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against gold, with predictions of significant dollar devaluation in the next 5 to 7 years [4][5]. - The U.S. is facing increasing fiscal and trade deficits, with the potential for a fiscal crisis, which could lead to a loss of confidence in the dollar and a shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset [8][10]. - Global experts, including Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates, have expressed concerns about the U.S. economic policies, warning of a possible debt crisis reminiscent of the Great Depression [8][10]. Market Sentiment - The ongoing concerns regarding the U.S. economic outlook have contributed to the sustained bull market in gold, even after inflation adjustments [10]. - The political interference in the Federal Reserve's operations has raised doubts about its independence and credibility, further driving investors towards gold [12].

Group 1 - The rise of a major power is fundamentally linked to economic growth, which serves as the foundation for social systems and national strength [3] - China's economic development has been rapid since the end of World War II, particularly after the reform and opening-up policy, making it the world's second-largest economy [3] - Western institutions predict that by 2030, China's economy will surpass that of the United States, becoming the largest in the world, which is 20 years earlier than previous forecasts [3][4] Group 2 - The United States is increasingly anxious about China's economic rise, fearing that being surpassed will accelerate its own decline in national strength [4] - Historical trends indicate that China has a strong internal driving force, allowing it to become self-reliant and resilient in the face of challenges [4] - The goal of China becoming the world's largest economy is expected to be achieved rapidly within the next decade, which is a source of encouragement for the Chinese people [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It offers trend judgments for various commodities within different sectors, including "oscillating", "bullish", and "bearish". 2. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, with A - shares lacking a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to oscillate while accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. There is strong support below the stock index due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Different commodities in various sectors are affected by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events, resulting in different price trends and investment outlooks. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Oscillating. A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, but there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, and precious metals are stabilizing and oscillating [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling. Limited industrial drivers and digested macro - benefits lead to an oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. With small production profits, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and production and inventory are both increasing, pressuring the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. The US government shutdown has increased market risk aversion. LME zinc inventory is continuously decreasing, and the risk of a short squeeze remains, but domestic fundamentals are still in surplus, so be cautious when chasing high prices [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. US economic data and Fed policy expectations affect market risk appetite. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and nickel prices are mainly affected by macro factors in the short term, with high inventory pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. Macro - sentiment is volatile, and stainless steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - **Tin**: Oscillating. Macro - benefits have been digested, and considering the raw material shortage and good new - quality demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to buying at low prices in the long - term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Northwest production capacity is resuming, and southwest production is weak. The impact of the dry season is weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Oscillating. The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong, but there is hedging pressure [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillating. There are concerns about weakening industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose, and attention should be paid to upward price pressure [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but there is an upward opportunity for far - month contracts due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. There is cost support and direct demand, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. Short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strong, but high supply and downstream pressure limit price rebound [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating. Coal and coke are strong due to tight supply, but downstream steel prices have weakened first, and there is a risk of the price returning to the oscillating range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. It is currently under the pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports, but may rebound if export data improves in the traditional production - reduction cycle starting in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. China's purchase of US soybeans may bring a loose supply expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's production capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit. The downside space is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Typhoons have affected sugarcane production, and there is seasonal upward pressure, but the rebound space is limited after new - sugar listing [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. There is selling pressure in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to traders' inventory - building rhythm and policy changes [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating. Domestic soybean purchase and processing margins are poor, and the market may rebound to repair margins, but the supply is expected to be loose in the near and far terms, limiting the rebound height [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and trade policies have eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production policy, geopolitics, and trade policies [1]. - **Asphalt**: Bearish. Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and supply is sufficient with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. Supported by raw material cost, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating. Crude oil price decline weakens the cost support of butadiene, and synthetic rubber supply is loose with high inventory [1]. - **PTA**: Oscillating. The news of the "anti - involution" policy, overseas and domestic device failures, and maintenance have affected production and prices [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal price increase strengthens cost support. The polyester peak season is ending without obvious decline [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating. It is affected by the PTA price and cost, with a strengthening basis [1]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating. Weak Asian benzene prices, low device operating rates, and closed arbitrage windows have affected the market [1]. - **Urea**: Oscillating. Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from the "anti - involution" policy and cost [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. High supply leads to large inventory pressure, weakening maintenance, and slow - growing demand [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Insufficient maintenance support and new device production increase supply pressure, and demand improvement is less than expected [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. New device production and reduced maintenance increase supply pressure, and coal price increase strengthens cost support [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. Planned production expansion in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and potential short - squeeze risk [1]. - **LPG**: Oscillating. International oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that certain sectors of the U.S. economy may already be in recession due to high interest rates, urging the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The overall condition of the U.S. economy is reported to be good, but specific industries are experiencing recession [1] - The Federal Reserve's policies are causing various distribution issues within the economy [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have downplayed expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to criticism from government officials [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has warned that failure to quickly lower interest rates could trigger an economic recession [1] - On October 29, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, with only two out of twelve committee members opposing this decision, including Milan, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1]

贝森特当天在美国有线电视新闻网《国情咨文》节目中说："我认为美国经济整体状况良好，但某些行 业存在衰退。而且，美联储的政策造成诸多分配方面的问题。" 来源：第一财经 据央视新闻，美国财政部长贝森特当地时间11月2日表示，受高利率影响，美国经济部分领域可能已经 陷入衰退。他再次呼吁美联储加快降息步伐。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that certain sectors of the U.S. economy may have already entered a recession due to high interest rates [1] - Becerra emphasized that while the overall economic condition is good, there are specific industries facing recession [1] - He called for the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts to address distribution issues caused by current policies [1]