Group 1: AI Bubble and Market Valuation - The current valuation levels of US stocks, particularly in the AI sector, are approaching those seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble, raising concerns about sustainability [2] - Analysts predict a 10-13% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, with a 15% growth expected in 2026, but there are doubts whether this growth can support current valuations [2] - If major tech companies fail to deliver expected returns from AI investments, market confidence could collapse, leading to significant economic repercussions [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - The top 20% of wealthy households in the US hold 70% of financial assets, and their spending accounts for nearly half of total US consumption [3] - A collapse of the AI bubble could lead to a rapid decrease in wealth for these households, resulting in a sharp contraction in consumer spending and a potential recession [3] Group 3: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The construction of AI infrastructure has created numerous jobs, but a sudden halt in AI investment could lead to widespread job losses and a rise in unemployment [4] - Stricter immigration policies are exacerbating labor shortages, which could lead to increased wage inflation and further economic instability [5] Group 4: Fiscal and Trade Risks - The US federal budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][7] - Proposed "tariff rebates" by the Trump administration could exacerbate the deficit, especially if they are not supported by corresponding revenue [6][7] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - The potential political influence over the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, leading to uncontrolled inflation and rising long-term interest rates [10][11] - A loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve could result in a significant decline in the value of the US dollar and increased capital flight [12] Group 6: Bond Market Trust Crisis - The US federal deficit is expected to remain high, and any loss of investor confidence could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, affecting global financial stability [13] - European countries are also facing similar challenges, with rising defense spending and increasing public debt levels [14][15] Group 7: Japanese Policy and Global Impact - Japan's recent interest rate hikes could disrupt global financial markets, particularly affecting yen carry trades that have significant implications for liquidity [16][17] - A potential "rate hike-recession" cycle in Japan could further complicate global economic conditions [17] Group 8: Gold Valuation Risks - The significant disparity between the market value and the official valuation of US gold reserves poses risks if the government decides to revalue these assets [18][19] - A revaluation could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve [19][20] Group 9: Geopolitical Risks - The shift in US foreign policy could lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly concerning energy prices and supply chains [21][22] - Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East and Africa could disrupt critical trade routes, impacting global economic stability [23][25] Group 10: European Political Fragmentation - The rise of far-right parties in Europe and the erosion of EU unity could lead to increased political instability and economic challenges [26][27] - The potential for member states to act independently could weaken the EU's collective decision-making power and exacerbate existing tensions [28] Group 11: Private Credit Market Risks - The private credit market has grown significantly, but rising default rates and financial instability could lead to a broader financial crisis [29][30] - A collapse in this market could trigger a chain reaction affecting traditional financial systems and investor confidence [30]

12月23日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升49点至7.0523，中间价升值至2024年9月30日以来最高。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）最新表示，除非央行明年继续降低利率，否则美国将面临经 济衰退的风险。当地时间周一（12月22日），米兰在接受采访时说道："如果我们不下调政策立场，我 认为确实会面临风险。"并补充称，他并不预期短期内会出现经济下行，但失业率上升应当促使美联储 官员继续降息。 美联储理事米兰：不继续降息，美国经济或被推入衰退 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com | FETR 高达V | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 98.1581 + 2025-12-23 09:16:15 | ...

2025年刚入夏，风向又变了——财政部长贝森特突然成了靶心。 特朗普在一场非正式场合里半开玩笑地说，要是他搞不定美联储，让联邦基金利率按总统的意思往下调，那就"卷铺盖走人"。 这话听着像随口一提，可华盛顿的政治圈谁不知道，越是轻描淡写的话，越可能藏着真意。 贝森特不是赫格塞斯那种政坛新丁，也不是靠口号混进内阁的网红政客。 他懂资本市场，清楚货币政策的传导机制，明白美联储的独立性不是总统一句话就能抹平的制度安排。 他尝试过协调，努力在白宫和联储之间搭桥，但桥还没架稳，桥下已经灌满火药。 总统要的是利率立刻降下来，好让股市再冲一波，好让选票多捞几百万。 而美联储盯着的是通胀数据、劳动力市场、金融稳定——这些不是靠行政命令就能摆平的变量。 特朗普拿美联储没辙。 这家机构自1913年成立以来，哪怕在大萧条、二战、滞胀危机甚至2008年全球金融海啸中，也从未真正屈从于白宫的直接指令。 总统可以施压，可以放风，可以在推特上骂街，但法律和制度筑起的防火墙，比白宫玫瑰园的围墙还厚实。 于是，火气只能往别处撒。 财长成了最方便的泄压阀。 这不只是人事问题，更不是白宫内部的权力小游戏。 贝森特的困境，是美国整个经济结构失衡的缩影 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's year-end speech aimed to highlight his administration's achievements while blaming the Biden administration for ongoing issues like rising prices and illegal immigration, amidst declining support and economic challenges [1][4]. Economic and Public Sentiment Pressure - Recent data shows significant pressure on the Trump administration regarding economic and public sentiment, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and approximately 7.83 million unemployed individuals, significantly higher than the previous year [2] - Polls indicate that nearly half of respondents feel substantial pressure from living costs, with about 60% expressing pessimism about the future, and over half believing the U.S. is in a recession [2] - Only 33% of Americans approve of Trump's economic policies, marking the lowest approval rating during his second term, with support among his core "MAGA" voters declining by 8 percentage points since April [2] Economic Outlook and Predictions - Economist Paul Krugman noted that while it cannot be definitively stated that the U.S. is in a recession, some economic indicators show "pre-recession" characteristics, contrasting sharply with Trump's optimistic portrayal of the economy [3] Speech Content Analysis - Trump's speech had three main focuses: 1. Blame-shifting, repeatedly attributing issues to Biden, claiming he inherited the highest inflation in 48 years and the worst border situation [4] 2. Self-promotion, claiming to have secured $18 trillion in investments, which is significantly higher than the $9.6 trillion reported by the White House, and falsely stating that inflation has stopped [4] 3. Vague promises regarding housing reform and tax cuts, lacking specific details or timelines, perceived as mere slogans [4] Midterm Election Implications - With less than a year until the midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a challenging outlook, as economic issues are seen as critical to election outcomes. Trump's failure to lower prices, a key campaign promise, remains unfulfilled [6] - Analysts suggest that if Trump's economic policies do not meet voter expectations, the Republican Party may face significant losses in the midterm elections, with public sentiment shifting blame from Biden to the current administration [6]

新华社纽约12月17日电 综述｜特朗普将公布美联储主席提名 舆论不看好美经济形势 新华社记者刘亚南 熊茂伶 美国总统特朗普17日晚发表全国电视讲话时说，将很快宣布下一任美国联邦储备委员会主席的提名人 选，并表示所提名的候选人需"支持大幅降低利率"。 多家媒体报道，特朗普仍在考察候选人。他在17日面试了美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。此前，特朗普 在12日表示，美联储前理事凯文·沃什是下一任美联储主席职位的头号候选人，白宫国家经济委员会主 任凯文·哈西特也很出色。 美国《华尔街日报》16日发布的文章指出，作为选民关心的问题，经济问题已成为关乎特朗普"最不利 的议题之一"。 特朗普还表示，住房抵押贷款还款金额会进一步下降，将在2026年初公布"美国历史上最激进的"住房改 革计划。 在讲话中，特朗普将美国高通胀等经济问题归咎于前任政府，并称自己正加以解决。但近来多项调查显 示，由于生活成本高企，美国民众对本国经济前景并不乐观，对特朗普在经济问题上的应对举措不满。 美国全国广播公司14日报道，美国民众对通胀和生活成本仍感担忧，民调显示这在购物、节日开支等日 常消费决策方面"尤为明显"。64%的美国民众认为，美国"正走在错 ...

中美元首级峰会顺利完成，双方能够达成共识，就说明彼此关切的议题都得到充分协商。然而，特朗普的"空军一号"尚未返回美本土之际，就接连传来两个 坏消息，不仅仅是中方早有准备，更重要的是美国内部也有人给他上眼药。这下，特朗普该如何是好？ 这番话掷地有声，美股直接跳水，而国际金价也闻声下跌。这对于特朗普而言，可不是个值得庆幸的消息，原本按照美国目前的通胀与非农就业数据来看， 美联储本就应该大幅降息，25个基点实在是吝啬，也很不过瘾。 这主要是因为美国的财政政策直接开打，而货币政策稳坐高台，这种差异让人们担心美国经济会有衰退的可能性。 再次，是特朗普精准捕捉到美企在拜登政府时期的高利率时代，借贷融资都非常困难，其中农业、制造业更甚，而以此对美联储进行施压，能获得部分企业 的支持，甚至还有变现的渠道。 只不过，无论是从法律规定，还是政治势力博弈来看，想要换掉鲍威尔，都是不现实的事情。 首先，在多数人的印象中，降息的最直接后果就是刺激经济增长，市面上流通的钱变多了。尤其是特朗普的基本盘都是MAGA，本身知识水平就有限，听 特朗普每天在社交平台上忽悠两句，自然就当成真理去听。 白宫与美联储的斗争，今年以来成为华尔街最关注的重 ...

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with spot gold closing at $4172.84 per ounce, down 0.54%, after reaching a high of $4245.23 earlier in the day [1] - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 1.65% and the Nasdaq down 2.29%, reflecting a negative sentiment in the market [1] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that the U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact the economy, predicting a lower GDP growth rate for Q4 than the previously forecasted 1.9% [1] - The White House's economic advisor projected a 1.5 percentage point decrease in GDP growth due to the shutdown, highlighting the potential for interest rate cuts [1][2] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are mixed, with probabilities slightly below 50% according to various derivatives [2] - A significant majority of economists (80%) anticipate a rate cut in December, reflecting a growing consensus on the need for monetary easing [2] Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding interest rate decisions, with some indicating the need for continued tightening to combat inflation [3][4] - The potential lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown could hinder the Fed's decision-making process [5][7] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Recent trends show a resurgence in gold and silver prices, driven by expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [8] - The end of the government shutdown is seen as a catalyst for the release of delayed economic data, which may support the case for a rate cut [9] Silver Market Fundamentals - Silver prices are supported by a tight supply-demand dynamic, with decreasing inventories reported on major exchanges [10] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in renewable energy sectors, is expected to drive long-term price increases [14] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks have accelerated gold purchases, with net buying totaling 220 tons in Q3, reflecting a strategic diversification of reserves [12][13] - This trend indicates a shift towards gold as a stable asset amid fluctuating economic conditions, reinforcing its role as a long-term value reserve [14] Geopolitical and Economic Considerations - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures are increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [15] - The resolution of the government shutdown is expected to restore the release of critical economic data, influencing future monetary policy decisions [15]

对比经济分析师的预测与相关呼吁，围绕12月是否降息，联邦公开市场委员会成员间分歧明显。就在美 国总统特朗普试图影响美联储决策的背景下，亚特兰大联储银行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克12日意外宣布， 他将在本届任期结束时退休。 美国《纽约邮报》报道，博斯蒂克现年59岁，距美联储规定的强制退休年龄还有5年多时间。他有时倾 向于防范通胀为重的"鹰派"立场。 路透社12日公布的最新调查结果显示，80%的经济分析师预计美国联邦储备委员会12月将再次降息25个 基点，这一比例较上月略有上升。 在受访的105名经济分析师中，有84人预测，美联储联邦公开市场委员会将在12月连续第三次降息25个 基点，将联邦基金利率降至3.50%至3.75%区间；其余的21人预计利率不会变化。 在10月份降息25个基点后，美联储主席鲍威尔曾警告，12月降息并非"板上钉钉"。 另外，近半数经济分析师仍预计，下个季度利率将降至3.25%至3.50%区间。至于2026年年底联邦基金 利率将处于何种水平，受访者还没有明确的多数意见。 美国财政部长贝森特2日说，受高利率影响，美国经济部分领域可能已经陷入衰退。他再次呼吁美联储 加快降息步伐。 一个"猎头"委员会将 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metal market is currently under pressure from the US macro - situation but also supported by multiple risk factors. It is expected to continue its consolidation in the high - level range. The trading strategy recommends short - term traders to use a band - trading approach, and long - term investors to maintain a low - buying strategy. Meanwhile, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5][6][7] - The interference with the Fed's independence by Trump may push up inflation in the medium - long term, which is one of the main drivers of the precious metal market's rise since late August [19] - The US economic growth shows signs of weakness. The GDP growth has a certain degree of deception, the labor market is cooling, and inflation is fluctuating. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation stickiness and employment market risks [27][34][48] - The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction, which marks a key step in monetary policy shifting from "active tightening" to "neutral waiting and seeing" [51] - In the precious metal market, the supply and demand of gold are both increasing, with investment demand leading the growth. The supply of silver is relatively stable, and the demand is mainly affected by photovoltaic silver consumption [53][54][66] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis** - **US Macro - situation**: Fed officials have different views on the December interest - rate cut. Most are cautious, which has dampened market expectations for future interest - rate cuts. The US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, risks such as the government shutdown, tariff legal debates, and labor market risks support precious metals [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, gold ETFs had a net inflow of 54.9 tons. In Q3, there was a resonance in ETF, physical demand, and central bank gold - buying demand. Global gold ETF total holdings increased by 222 tons (a 30% quarter - on - quarter increase), bar and coin demand reached 316 tons (a 2.7% quarter - on - quarter increase), and global central bank gold - buying volume was 220 tons (a 28% quarter - on - quarter increase) [5] - **Futures Market**: Precious metals are currently under pressure and supported. The London gold range of $3900 - 4000, London silver range of $46 - 47 (Shanghai gold about 894 - 915 yuan, Shanghai silver about 11000 - 11200 yuan) show good support, but lack upward momentum. It is expected to continue to consolidate in the high - level range [6] - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Single - side Trading**: Short - term traders should mainly use a band - trading approach; long - term investors can continue the low - buying strategy [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Wait and see [7] Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Market Trading Focus**: The focus has shifted from tariff games to interest - rate cut games. Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, which may affect the Fed's independence and lead to medium - long - term inflation, driving up the precious metal market [19] - **US Economy - GDP**: The Q2 GDP growth was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.4%. However, the growth has a certain degree of deception. The net export item was abnormally high due to a large reduction in imports, and consumption and investment were weak [25][27] - **US Economy - Employment**: In August, the number of non - farm payrolls was 22,000, lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The labor market is cooling, and there are concerns about employment recession [34] - **US Economy - Inflation**: In September, the CPI data was better than expected, clearing the way for an October interest - rate cut. In August, the PPI was at a new low since June. Overall, inflation rebound is still moderate [45] - **Fed's Interest - rate Decision**: The October FOMC meeting dampened market expectations for an interest - rate cut. Powell's hawkish remarks led to a decline in the probability of a December interest - rate cut from over 90% to 70%. The future interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation and employment risks [46][47][48] - **Fed's Balance - sheet Reduction**: The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction. The balance of the RRP account is nearly exhausted, and the bank reserve account is approaching the neutral level. Ending the balance - sheet reduction marks a shift in monetary policy [51] Chapter 3: Precious Metal Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold - Supply and Demand**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total gold supply was 3717 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. The total demand also increased by 1% to 3717 tons. Investment demand dominated in Q3, and central bank gold - buying volume remained high, while jewelry consumption declined [53][54] - **Central Bank Gold - buying**: Since 2022, central banks around the world have been actively buying gold. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India are the main buyers. The reasons for gold - buying vary by country [63][64] - **Silver - Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31,573 tons, and the demand was 36,208 tons, with a supply - demand gap of 4634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2%, and the demand is expected to decrease slightly, with a narrowing supply - demand gap [66] - **Silver Inventory**: The LBMA silver inventory has dropped to a historical low, with about 24,000 tons, but the freely - tradable amount is only about 6000 tons. The silver lease rate soared in October and has initially eased [69]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have not led to a decrease in gold prices, which have reached new highs, indicating that monetary policy alone cannot resolve the underlying issues in the U.S. economy [1][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs has reported that international gold prices have entered a bull market, projecting prices to reach $6,000 per ounce, with current prices exceeding $3,770 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 2% increase [3][4]. - The domestic price of gold jewelry has surpassed 1,100 yuan per gram, while the spot trading price has exceeded 865 yuan per gram, marking unprecedented high prices [3][4]. - Gold prices have been adjusted for inflation, surpassing historical peaks from 45 years ago, with 31 new price highs recorded in 2025 alone [3][4]. Economic Implications - The continuous rise in gold prices suggests a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against gold, with predictions of significant dollar devaluation in the next 5 to 7 years [4][5]. - The U.S. is facing increasing fiscal and trade deficits, with the potential for a fiscal crisis, which could lead to a loss of confidence in the dollar and a shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset [8][10]. - Global experts, including Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates, have expressed concerns about the U.S. economic policies, warning of a possible debt crisis reminiscent of the Great Depression [8][10]. Market Sentiment - The ongoing concerns regarding the U.S. economic outlook have contributed to the sustained bull market in gold, even after inflation adjustments [10]. - The political interference in the Federal Reserve's operations has raised doubts about its independence and credibility, further driving investors towards gold [12].